Quarterback Profiles

The quarterback position is quite possibly the most important position on the field. It is at least the position that carries the most weight on draft day. There are always teams looking to upgrade their QB situation, and have the spot settled for the next ten years. The 2009 and 2010 drafts combined saw four signal callers land in the first round, with quarterbacks going in the top spot in both drafts. This year alone, there could be four quarterbacks taken in the first round: Andrew Luck, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, and Cameron Newton.

Of the top four quarterbacks, only Jake Locker of Washington is a senior. Locker has an impressive package of physical tools, but it’s his toughness and leadership that truly stand out. He possesses good size for the position, and has the frame to take hits in the pocket. His arm strength is outstanding and his athleticism is tremendous. He can sit in the pocket and make any throw, but also has the mobility to not only escape the rush and throw on the run, but to also pick up big yardage on the ground with his feet. Locker has shown the ability to step up and make big plays when his team needs it, and is praised for his work ethic and attitude. He does not come without some question marks, however. Locker has had some durability issues during his career, missing time for thumb, neck, and rib injuries. The biggest question though is the fact that he is still a work in progress. He has only spent two seasons in a pro style attack, so he should be given some benefit of the doubt. However, his progress has seemed to stall this year. His completion percentage is down, he’s made some questionable decisions, and his mechanics have broken down. The positives for Locker definitely outweigh the negative, especially when you factor in his work ethic. Where Locker lands will depend on the trio of underclassmen that declare, but he is a first round lock, and will likely hear his name called in the first half of the round.

Andrew Luck of Stanford has the look of the top overall pick at this point in time. He’s also the most likely to return to school, because he is just a redshirt sophomore. It would be wise to declare from a draft status standpoint, as his stock really cannot go any higher. From a development standpoint, another year in school cannot hurt but if he does declare, he’s likely the top guy on the board. Luck is the prototypical pocket passer: great size at 6'4, 230lbs, and the arm to make any throw possible. He is surprisingly nimble for a pocket passer, showing the ability to elude the rush with ease and even pick up some yardage on the ground when things break down. Luck has been well coached by former NFL QB Jim Harbaugh, and is advanced beyond his years. He shows excellent poise in the pocket, and doesn’t panic when forced to find secondary options. The only real knock in Luck’s game is his overall experience. He is just three years removed from high school, with only two years of playing experience at a high level. While that is more playing time than some other guys who have been drafted high lately, it’s still not as much experience as you would like in the #1 overall pick. In the end, it would make sense for Luck to declare and be the top pick in the draft, since there is no reason to risk any type of injury or sub par play next season.

Ryan Mallett is a junior that is likely to declare. Mallett is 6'6 and has an absolute cannon for an arm. He could step into the league right now and battle for the strongest arm. He fits the mold of a true gunslinger: He wants to throw it every time, and will try to throw the football throw anything that gets between him and his receiver. Mallett is a pure pocket passer with great size, but with that comes the lack of ideal mobility. He is not a statue in the pocket, but as he gets older and adds some more weight to his frame, he is going to find it tough to escape the rush within the pocket. The biggest thing holding Mallett back at this point is still his decision making. He has some Brett Favre in him, thinking his arm strength will always prevail. He forces throws into coverage. It results in some amazing throws, but also results in game changing mistakes. At the pro level, the mistakes will out number the big plays because tight spaces are even tighter. When all is said and done, Mallett is not the top QB in the draft, but he is a first round pick, and a guy that could really pile up the passing yards in the right offense in the NFL.

Cameron Newton of Auburn is the final player that projects as a first rounder if he declares, but he is also the biggest wild card. Newton has put up some amazing numbers and had a number of highlight reel plays this season, as he has led Auburn to the national title game. He may be, pound for pound, the top athlete in the entire draft. At 6'6 245lbs, Newton has fantastic size, but also has the athleticism that could allow him to play other positions. He easily side steps the pass rush, can leave the pocket and throw on the run, and is a big play threat when he decides to tuck the football and run. In many ways, he is a larger Michael Vick. He appears more fluid and faster than Vince Young was in college, with a better arm. Newton possesses big time potential as a passer and runner, but he’s also the biggest question mark. This is his only season of big time college football, as he was Tim Tebow’s backup, then left Florida to play junior college ball before ending up at Auburn. While he has piled up amazing numbers and led his team to the top spot, he still has work as a passer. He still needs mechanical work, hasn’t operated out of a pro style offense, and just flat out needs more experience. The biggest issues with Newton may come off the field. He has come under fire for many things this season. To his credit, he has overcome all of them to still make plays and still win games. However, teams are going to really check into his past to find out answers to some rather pressing questions. There has been talked of him stealing a lap top while at Florida, and also that he left Florida before he could be expelled for cheating accusations. During his stay in junior college, his father admitted to shopping his son to the largest bidder, but claims Cameron knew nothing about it. While none of this may seem like it effects him as a football player, teams want to know the true character of players these days, and will exhaust every avenue to uncover the truth. On the field though, Newton has as much potential as any quarterback in the draft, but he will need some time to adjust to the next level. Landing in the last half of the first round could be a blessing, as he may land on a solid team that can provide him the benefit of a year or two on the bench to develop as a passer.

While there is a big dropoff after the top four quarterback prospects, there are some intriguing talents available after the first round.

Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert is a junior that should probably return to school and become a first rounder. If he does declare though, he is a quality developmental QB. He’s not ready to play immediately because he will have a lot of work ahead converting to a pro style attack, but he has great size, a very good arm, and some mobility inside the pocket. He has all the tools to be a starting QB in the NFL, and another year in school would do him well but he would be a very attractive option in round two if he does indeed declare.

Christian Ponder of Florida St is arguably the second best senior signal caller in the draft. While his senior season and career have been up and down, when he’s up, Ponder shows legitimate NFL ability. He’s got solid size, with a good arm, and has above average mobility. He can get on a roll and be on point with every throw he makes. However, at times he will rush plays and force the ball into traffic. With some time to sit and become more consistent, Ponder has a lot of upside. His value will depend on the underclassmen, but he could potentially hear his name called in the third or fourth round.

Delaware’s Pat Devlin is the top small school quarterback this year, although he did begin his career at Penn St. Some want to compare him to former Delaware QB Joe Flacco, but they really aren’t similar at all. Devlin isn’t as talented or polished as Flacco was coming out. Devlin does have good size and arm strength. Like Ponder, his inconsistency is the biggest problem with his game. The physical tools aren’t in question, it’s just a matter of learning the position and getting with the right coach to iron out his fundamentals. A true developmental prospect, Devlin has some potential down the road, but is going to need time to realize it.

Colin Kaepernick of Nevada is very raw but has the talent and production to warrant a draft selection. Kaepernick has great height, but a very lean frame and he will have to bulk up in order to take hits quarterbacks inevitably take. He has a decent arm, is a very good athlete that can make plays with his feet, and is a leader. His experience in the “pistol” offense though leaves him very underdeveloped for the pro game. He does not have very good throwing mechanics or footwork, and doesn’t have experience dropping back from under center and surveying the field. Kaepernick is another long term project that has the skills and work ethic to develop, but many teams may be turned off by the lack of fundamentals at this point in his career.

TCU’s Andy Dalton does not possess the upside of some of the other QB’s in the draft, but his leadership and consistency have value in their own right. While he too will need some work adjusting to a pro style attack, Dalton shows the leadership skills and accuracy to be a backup QB in the NFL. He has a decent arm and does just enough with his feet to make the play. He may not be the type of guy you take and hope in two or three years becomes a starter, but he’s the type who could be a backup for a long time in the NFL.

Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi and Idaho’s Nathan Enderle are two other late round QB’s to keep an eye on. They have the talent to make it in the NFL but have had some questions surrounding decision making. If they get with the right coach that can tap into their potential and get them to make smarter decisions, they have the ability to be guys who stick as late round draft picks.