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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2247
PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:56 am    Post subject: Vikings Film Review Reply with quote

I'll start this as a single thread where we can post screenshots and gifs to analyze plays. Also works for linking film reviews done by the usual suspects around the inter webs.

Probably better to post gifs linked off site so the page isn't too slow to load.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

First thing I'll do is go through the Lions game looking for problems in the passing game.

Reposting from the Lions game thread...

#1. Teddy throws high to Rudolph in space, who makes a leaping catch for 21 yards. The sideline view shows how much room he had downfield, might've gained 10+ more yards after the catch if he hadn't had to jump for the pass.

GIF (sideline): http://www.gfycat.com/ScientificWillingDeermouse

So that looks like a poor throw by Bridgewater, forcing his guy to jump, cost him an opportunity for YAC.

...but the end zone view shows why the ball placement was high. Levy (#54) starts out in the throwing window. Teddy looks him off (eyes to his left) and pumps quickly in that direction, drawing Levy over, then throws with some zip up the seam. The ball ends up traveling almost directly over Levy but with enough height/pace that he doesn't jump.

GIF (end zone): http://www.gfycat.com/LiveFreeBunny

... so that's both a good play by Bridgewater and a bit of a missed opportunity at the same time. With no one behind Rudolph (see sideline view), he could've put more loft on the ball to get it over Levy and still make it more catchable for his TE. But the end zone view shows that he did well to open that window in the first place and fire the ball through it. One advantage of having a big TE should be that he feels comfortable targeting him high, and here he made good use of that.

Overall: nice play design, good work by Bridgewater to make the read and manipulate coverage, but throw could've been better, very good catch by Rudolph.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry, that's just a bad throw.

Levy was no where close to Rudolph, almost 10 yards in front of him. Bridgewater could easily throw that ball over the top of Levy and lead Rudolph with a chance to run with the ball.

If Bridgewater throws that ball near the "3" of the 30 yard marker, Rudolph would have had an easy chance to run under the ball, catch, and run up field.

For completing 70% of his passes, Bridgewater hasn't been all that accurate. He's making catches more difficult for his receivers, he's not hitting them in stride, and in some cases he's still missing easy, wide open throws.

Overall this season, Bridgewater's decision making has been great. I've been very impressed where he's at mentally with the game, but his ball placement and timing still have a long ways to go.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SemperFeist wrote:
Sorry, that's just a bad throw.

Levy was no where close to Rudolph, almost 10 yards in front of him. Bridgewater could easily throw that ball over the top of Levy and lead Rudolph with a chance to run with the ball.


7 yards in front as he catches the ball. Here's the still image: http://www.gfycat.com/ScientificWillingDeermouse#?frameNum=32

And 4 yards in front as the ball is delivered (Levy's on the 22, Rudolph's on the 26): http://www.gfycat.com/ScientificWillingDeermouse#?frameNum=16

If Bridgewater hadn't moved Levy off the hash mark with his eyes and the pump fake, he'd be sitting right in the window where Rudolph later catches the ball.

Quote:
If Bridgewater throws that ball near the "3" of the 30 yard marker, Rudolph would have had an easy chance to run under the ball, catch, and run up field.


Ball's delivered as Rudolph's at the right hash, you think he's going to run halfway across the field? Levy's closer to the "3" of the "30" than Rudolph is, when the ball's delivered.

...

It's not a great throw, as I said, he could've put more loft on it and taken a little off the pace. But when you look at the end zone view you can see he was more likely being careful than inaccurate. Given that it's to his credit that he moved Levy over in the first place, this is a plus play by a young QB, not a minus.

Quote:
For completing 70% of his passes, Bridgewater hasn't been all that accurate. He's making catches more difficult for his receivers, he's not hitting them in stride, and in some cases he's still missing easy, wide open throws.


I think your expectations are unrealistic if you're not happy with where his accuracy is right now. He has missed some easy throws, and some of his completions have been poorly placed -- and I'll document his mistakes and other failures of the passing offense by going through film in this thread -- but his completion percentage isn't a fluke (unlike Ponder, it's not built on a bunch of screen passes), and the stats make it clear he's doing very well compared to his peers around the league, not just rookies but established starters.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
And 4 yards in front as the ball is delivered (Levy's on the 22, Rudolph's on the 26): http://www.gfycat.com/ScientificWillingDeermouse#?frameNum=16

And Levy is moving forward to cover the running back. Besides that, Bridgewater can't be throwing to where a receiver is, he needs to throw where he's going to be. Throw your receiver open.

Quote:
If Bridgewater hadn't moved Levy off the hash mark with his eyes and the pump fake, he'd be sitting right in the window where Rudolph later catches the ball.

The pump fake worked. He froze Levy. Again, he needs to throw the ball out where Rudolph can run under the ball and run with it. Once Bridgewater got Levy to freeze on the pump fake, he was out of the play, and a non factor. He no longer needed to try and put the ball away from Levy.

Quote:
Ball's delivered as Rudolph's at the right hash, you think he's going to run halfway across the field? Levy's closer to the "3" of the "30" than Rudolph is, when the ball's delivered.

I said, "near" the 3, not on the 3. Even if he puts the ball in between the 3 and the outside hash mark, it allows Rudolph to run with the ball. Rudolph isn't running parallel with the line of scrimmage, he's angling his route down field, and away from Levy. He's running forward and in a straight line. Levy would have to change his forward momentum, back pedal or turn and run to catch up to the ball. Again, with the successful pump fake, Bridgewater took Levy out of the play.

Quote:
It's not a great throw, as I said, he could've put more loft on it and taken a little off the pace. But when you look at the end zone view you can see he was more likely being careful than inaccurate. Given that it's to his credit that he moved Levy over in the first place, this is a plus play by a young QB, not a minus.

I'll give him credit for the pump fake, but he didn't use it to his benefit. He got the linebacker to freeze, that's a quarterbacks chance to make a big play. High and slightly behind Rudolph is just another example, with many on the season, of Bridgewater's poor ball placement. Yes he did a number of things right, but too many times this year Bridgewater missed on what many would consider the easiest part of the job.

Quote:
I think your expectations are unrealistic if you're not happy with where his accuracy is right now. He has missed some easy throws, and some of his completions have been poorly placed -- and I'll document his mistakes and other failures of the passing offense by going through film in this thread -- but his completion percentage isn't a fluke (unlike Ponder, it's not built on a bunch of screen passes), and the stats make it clear he's doing very well compared to his peers around the league, not just rookies but established starters.

I don't think my expectations are unrealistic. Bridgewater has missed way too many "easy" throws or wide open targets, and he misses consistently by the same margin. His misses aren't the difference of throwing over the outside shoulder instead of the inside shoulder, or hitting the back shoulder when he needs to hit the lead shoulder. He's making passes uncatchable for open receivers. It's happened too many time this season to not raise concerns. If Rudolph isn't 6'6" that ball likely doesn't get caught. The miss to Jarius Wright in the final minute was an inexcusable miss that might have changed the outcome of the game.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not ideal, I said as much. From home, it's obvious he could've done better. But it's not "just a bad throw".

Levy never moves forward from the 22, his next step is to the left and back.

There's a window here (thanks to Bridgewater moving Levy over), but it's not a big one: http://www.gfycat.com/LiveFreeBunny#?frameNum=33

The ball's roughly over Levy's head here: http://www.gfycat.com/LiveFreeBunny#?frameNum=45

Thrown much lower, he can deflect it. Thrown much wider (past the left hash), you're lobbing it directly over him and it's a much more delicate pass.

There's a better throw to be made, but this isn't terrible or anything.

Quote:
Bridgewater has missed way too many "easy" throws or wide open targets, and he misses consistently by the same margin. His misses aren't the difference of throwing over the outside shoulder instead of the inside shoulder, or hitting the back shoulder when he needs to hit the lead shoulder. He's making passes uncatchable for open receivers. It's happened too many time this season to not raise concerns. If Rudolph isn't 6'6" that ball likely doesn't get caught. The miss to Jarius Wright in the final minute was an inexcusable miss that might have changed the outcome of the game.


We could save the discussion of the throw to Wright until we're actually looking at that play.

Having the option to throw high to a 6'6" TE with the big catch radius is part of the plan. Rudolph's making big money for a reason.

However many bad misses Bridgewater's had, he must be doing something right. PFF has him 14th in completion percentage, 7th in accuracy percentage (adjusts for drops etc), 18th in deep accuracy (accuracy percentage on throws of 20+), and 2nd in accuracy percentage under pressure.

Those are pretty respectable numbers -- somehow, despite his misses, he's keeping up with the rest of the league. That suggests that missed throws happen to every QB, and Bridgewater's misses aren't happening much more often than anyone else's.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First drive of the game was set up nicely near midfield after Sherels' punt return (which featured a clever fake reverse handoff). Asiata runs for 3, then catches a swing pass and pushes back the DB for a first down at the Lions 39.

Three failed pass plays then lead to a 4th down at the 35, and Walsh misses the FG. Here's how the drive stalled:

1st down: WR screen to Wright lined up in the slot left.

http://gfycat.com/DisastrousAcclaimedElephantbeetle (sideline view all-22)

The play is DOA, the Lions have 4 defenders within 10 yards wide of the left hash, the Vikings have 2 WRs to block for Wright.

Making matters worse, the slot CB threatens blitz (the GIF includes the presnap movement) and ends up directly in the throwing lane. This could've been an INT.

Would've liked to see Teddy check out of this play, the Lions only have 6-7 in the box (the 7th guy is way over on the left hash) and the Vikings have a TE in tight who'd be a 6th blocker. That might not've been an option given the noise in the dome on the road.

Overall: Lions had the right defense for this play call, not much you can do about that.

...

2nd down: comeback to Johnson

http://gfycat.com/DiscreteHospitableHedgehog (broadcast, shows the pass breakup better than all-22)

This is a nice example of Turner modifying his offense to help his QB and OL deal with the pass rush. Shotgun, quick drop, ball's out fast. CJ is the presnap read, Slay's playing off.

Johnson runs a good pattern but Slay is sitting on the comeback route, he clicks and closes immediately. Ball placement here is very good, outside shoulder at a depth where only Johnson can reach it, head high. Johnson extends and makes the catch, but Slay gets an arm in and rips it out before he can secure it.

Overall: Play call and execution are solid, stopped only by a very good play by a good CB. Would like Johnson to make contested catches like this (he's had a couple of similar balls broken up, including the one in the Panthers game where the DB took a penalty for taunting afterward), but I think this one is more of a good defensive play than anything.

...

3rd down: checkdown to Asiata

http://gfycat.com/SecretDecimalAphid (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/DiscreteElementaryAracari (end zone, shows blocking breakdown)

This is a really nice play design.

The Lions show 2 deep safeties but rotate one down to bracket Rudolph at the sticks. On the other side, Johnson runs a go route and the CB stays with him. As he clears out that side, Jennings (shallow) and Wright (intermediate) run out/corner routes underneath him. The routes are spaced so there's ~10 yards of depth between the 3 receivers on that side (see here: http://gfycat.com/SecretDecimalAphid#?frameNum=67 ) -- a levels concept.

The Lions only have one DB underneath on that side, and he comes forward to pick up Jennings. This leaves Wright wide open as he crosses the 25. Would be a gain of 20+ if Teddy gets the ball to him.

And that's his first read -- if you look at the end zone view, he's looking left as he hits the top of his drop. But protection breaks down immediately -- Harris lets the DE (who lines up on his inside shoulder) push into the middle of the pocket, which forces Teddy to pull the ball down and step to his right. Kalil then allows Ansah around the corner just as a DT stunting behind the other DE blows past Berger and closes from the front. Teddy moves quickly enough to escape the sack and flip the ball to Asiata who gains 4 yards.

If you want to argue that he should've thrown the ball earlier, without pulling it down, here's the sideline view of the moment where he had to start sidestepping the rush: http://gfycat.com/SecretDecimalAphid#?frameNum=37
Jennings and Wright aren't into their patterns yet, and the DB is still between them -- a throw to Wright here would very likely get picked.

4 yards gained on this play instead of 5 yards lost (a sack) or an incompletion was probably the difference between a FG attempt and a punt. So the checkdown wasn't the worst result. Unfortunately, Walsh missed the 53 yarder anyway.

Overall: excellent play design, should've been a big gain, but the OL couldn't hold up for more than 1-2 seconds against a 4 man rush.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Vikings allowed 4 sacks to the Lions, plus PFF charted them as allowing 1 QB hit.

Here's a look at those 5 plays:

Sack #1
http://gfycat.com/BestComfortableDugong (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/FreeBogusCanary (end zone)

Hit #1 (checkdown to Rudolph)
http://gfycat.com/KindheartedDeliciousDanishswedishfarmdog (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/SadFrightenedIndianpalmsquirrel (end zone)

Sack #2
http://gfycat.com/SimplisticFlippantHoverfly (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/NearOptimisticLacewing (end zone)

Sack #3
http://gfycat.com/DimpledImmenseGoose (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/BriskShallowAzurewingedmagpie (end zone)

Sack #4
http://gfycat.com/ImpressiveHarshBigmouthbass (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/PossibleMaleEel (end zone)

I'll post my take on them tonight. I think one of them is a huge mistake by Bridgewater, turned out to be a game breaker.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
Sack #4
http://gfycat.com/PossibleMaleEel (end zone)

i notice Rudolph and #33 crash in to each other, negating either of them as a potential receiver. and i doubt they were blocking for someone on the play as no other receivers were close by.

Teddy's looking to his left, as Jennings and Wright head toward the endzone, but he sees them covered. he then looks to his right, sees the traffic jam, and by then the sack is on, as Harris couldn't hold back his man at all.
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SemperFeist


Joined: 13 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
Krauser wrote:
Sack #4
http://gfycat.com/PossibleMaleEel (end zone)

i notice Rudolph and #33 crash in to each other, negating either of them as a potential receiver. and i doubt they were blocking for someone on the play as no other receivers were close by.

Teddy's looking to his left, as Jennings and Wright head toward the endzone, but he sees them covered. he then looks to his right, sees the traffic jam, and by then the sack is on, as Harris couldn't hold back his man at all.

Listening to local radio, Tate ran the wrong route. Apparently it's why Tate doesn't see the field much, because he doesn't know his assignments. You can see it in sack #1 as well. Tate hits Ellison in the back, and essentially knocks him off the block.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
The Vikings allowed 4 sacks to the Lions, plus PFF charted them as allowing 1 QB hit.

Here's a look at those 5 plays:

Sack #1
http://gfycat.com/BestComfortableDugong (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/FreeBogusCanary (end zone)

Hit #1 (checkdown to Rudolph)
http://gfycat.com/KindheartedDeliciousDanishswedishfarmdog (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/SadFrightenedIndianpalmsquirrel (end zone)

Sack #2
http://gfycat.com/SimplisticFlippantHoverfly (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/NearOptimisticLacewing (end zone)

Sack #3
http://gfycat.com/DimpledImmenseGoose (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/BriskShallowAzurewingedmagpie (end zone)

Sack #4
http://gfycat.com/ImpressiveHarshBigmouthbass (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/PossibleMaleEel (end zone)

I'll post my take on them tonight. I think one of them is a huge mistake by Bridgewater, turned out to be a game breaker.

Sack #1, I would put on Tate. Ellison is having trouble with the defender, but Tate flat out missed, and ended hitting Ellison instead of the defender.

Sack #2, I will put this one on Duccasse because he absolutely gets lit up by the defender on the stunt. But, with that said, Bridgewater needs to have the ball out of his hand by that point.

Sack #3, Bridgewater may have held the ball a bit too long, but I again put this sack on Duccasse. He got pushed back and didn't give Bridgewater a pocket to step up into. Which is unfortunate, because Rudolph was wide open for a touchdown.

Sack #4, Harris got beat off the snap, and Bridgewater had no where to go.
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looks like Jennings is open on sack #4 for about a second? It wouldn't have gone for a TD, but shouldn't Teddy threw it his way anyways?

If he throws it outside, its either caught or hits the turf.
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swiss_vike


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OT: Any tips on how to create those gifs?

I'd like to see the first snap of last drive where he missed Wright from a clean pocket. I think on the same play he missed an opportunity to Jennings over the middle that would have resulted in a huge gain.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sack #4
http://gfycat.com/ImpressiveHarshBigmouthbass (sideline)
http://gfycat.com/PossibleMaleEel (end zone)

SteelKing728 wrote:
It looks like Jennings is open on sack #4 for about a second? It wouldn't have gone for a TD, but shouldn't Teddy threw it his way anyways?

If he throws it outside, its either caught or hits the turf.


Bingo.

This is another nice example of Turner designing a play to make life easier for Bridgewater. Vikings start with 3 receivers in a bunch left. Jennings motions across the formation, then back into the slot. One of the DBs follows him -- which reveals that the Lions are playing man coverage (presnap motion is seen on the end zone gif).

Jennings is 3rd off the line in the bunch. He delays for half a second, then runs an angle route to the front corner of the end zone. He immediately has outside position on the CB, because Wright is running straight upfield and transiently obstructs his angle to Jennings: http://gfycat.com/ImpressiveHarshBigmouthbass#?frameNum=30

Teddy takes a short dropback from shotgun, looking at Jennings all the way. At the top of his drop, Jennings is open by 2-3 yards, with outside positioning: http://gfycat.com/ImpressiveHarshBigmouthbass#?frameNum=36

Teddy has plenty of room to step forward and deliver the ball. But his feet hesitate, and he pulls the ball down and looks across the formation, where Rudolph and Tate have gotten in each other's way and Johnson is double covered.

Harris does a terrible job on the DE who gets the sack for a loss of 10. Not to excuse a bad mistake by the OL (this is quick pressure, Harris is cleanly beaten), the failed play is completely Bridgewater's fault. The play was there as designed, he should've pulled the trigger.

If he leads Jennings outside (throw to the 3 on his outside shoulder), it's a TD unless the CB makes an immediate tackle -- the CB has a tough angle, and the safety is screened by Wright. Here's roughly where the ball should be arriving: http://gfycat.com/ImpressiveHarshBigmouthbass#?frameNum=45

With a catchable throw at the very least it'll be 3rd and goal from the 2 -- Asiata territory. Even an incompletion allows for a chance to score on 3rd and goal. Instead, the sack produces 3rd and goal from the 20. They run a draw play for a short gain, and Walsh's FG is blocked.

Overall: a perfectly designed play for that situation and against that defense, with a very makable throw. Harris does a bad job but this is Teddy's fault, he definitely should've pulled the trigger.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Going back to the high throw to Rudolph, Cian Fahey breaks it down like this:

Cian Fahey ‏@Cianaf
TB looking left from start of play, draws underneath LB out. Then he pump fakes as he steps up in pocket:



Cian Fahey ‏@Cianaf
Immediately transitions from pump fake to throw. Window is WIDE and LB has no time to react:



Cian Fahey ‏@Cianaf
Again, pass not perfect, but it's minor issue in context of whole play. Suspect he know he was going to KR at snap:

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