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Glennon/Trubisky Hypo
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dll2000


Joined: 04 Apr 2016
Posts: 517
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:47 pm    Post subject: Glennon/Trubisky Hypo Reply with quote

One scenario is Glennon plays well in 2017. A lot of podcast/radio people have brought this up with little real examination. Just asked the question.

Here is a more detailed hypo for more 'what if' clarity (I understand it isn't likely - its a hypothetical exercise):

Bears go 10-6 in 2017 and make playoffs as division leader or wildcard losing in first round in a close competitive game. Or winning close first game and clearly losing 2nd by decisive wide margin.

Glennon has a fairly good season, not amazing, but certainly above average. 4000ish yards passing. 62ish% completion. 21 tds and 12 ints. Receiving/TE core is far better than expected and running game is good.

Offensively Howard and Whitehair make pro bowl. Meredith gets picked as pro bowl alternate and Shaheen starts playing great in late season after Miller goes down with injury. Defense plays better than expected and is ranked 10th in points allowed at end of season.

Trubisky never sees the field in 2017 except mop up duty in a few games. Nothing exciting happens during that time and he mostly hands off.

What would you do in 2018?

1) Try to trade Glennon
2) Try to trade Trubisky
3) Trade neither

Who plays QB in 2018?

1) Glennon
2) Trubisky
3) Open competition in camp.
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Sugashane


Joined: 06 Jan 2013
Posts: 3309
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:24 pm    Post subject: Re: Glennon/Trubisky Hypo Reply with quote

dll2000 wrote:
One scenario is Glennon plays well in 2017. A lot of podcast/radio people have brought this up with little real examination. Just asked the question.

Here is a more detailed hypo for more 'what if' clarity (I understand it isn't likely - its a hypothetical exercise):

Bears go 10-6 in 2017 and make playoffs as division leader or wildcard losing in first round in a close competitive game. Or winning close first game and clearly losing 2nd by decisive wide margin.

Glennon has a fairly good season, not amazing, but certainly above average. 4000ish yards passing. 62ish% completion. 21 tds and 12 ints. Receiving/TE core is far better than expected and running game is good.

Offensively Howard and Whitehair make pro bowl. Meredith gets picked as pro bowl alternate and Shaheen starts playing great in late season after Miller goes down with injury. Defense plays better than expected and is ranked 10th in points allowed at end of season.

Trubisky never sees the field in 2017 except mop up duty in a few games. Nothing exciting happens during that time and he mostly hands off.

What would you do in 2018?

1) Try to trade Glennon
2) Try to trade Trubisky
3) Trade neither

Who plays QB in 2018?

1) Glennon
2) Trubisky
3) Open competition in camp.


Glennon plays that will you sell him ASAP. You got his unicorn year, still him to the highest bidder and get Trubisky in there for 2018.
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Madmike90


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah if Glennon plays that well you sell high...Trubisky is the future no matter how Glennon plays.
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dll2000


Joined: 04 Apr 2016
Posts: 517
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with you both.

But if he plays very well in his first year in a new system it could be he was underrated (remember when he was starting with Tampa, Tampa was terrible) and you would be trading a known quantity for an unknown one with potential. Not sure decision would be that easy if he led team to playoffs.

Chicago fans also seem to never seem to want to sell high. Although baseball teams finally are. Bulls waited too long to blow it up and trade Butler. (Signing of Rondo and Wade was retarded). Belichick will trade or even cut the most popular player on team (aside from Brady) year after year.

Fans want to sell when player was once good, but currently playing like a bum or has had many injuries. Then they still want top value.

I suggested trading Kyle Long at beginning of last year right after Sitton signing and was laughed out of building.

My concern was injuries are mounting on him. Also, felt we needed a good OT or safety/corner more than we needed two great guards.

Still dangerously thin at OT. I hope Long comes back strong as well. I digress.

You have to give value to get value. You see it in fantasy too. You get offered total crap for top players. One reason I didn't play for like 10 years. I will say the Bears league here people made reasonable and intelligent offers though there weren't many trades.

I think Bears fans would be fine would trading a good playing Glennon however because they love the unknown QB with potential.
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Rogerthat


Joined: 07 Jan 2017
Posts: 26
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keep both open comp in 2018.

I just don't see Glennon being in high demand even with a playoff season under his belt. 2018 QB market will be loaded with talent. Cousins will be a free agent Drew Brees could be a free agent and then you have 3 top 10 first round pick QBs in Darnold, Rosen, Allen. Maybe even Lammar Jackson gets into the first round. Jets get Darnald, 49er cousins, brown draft a QB.
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AZBearsFan


Joined: 04 Feb 2006
Posts: 13187
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Outside of a significant Trubisky injury this year that may linger into 2018 I see no realistic scenario where Glennon is with our squad next year short of a contract renegotiation with him making significantly less than he's scheduled to make next year at present. By realistic scenario, I'm ruling out that he plays at an MVP caliber level because I think the chances of that are somewhere between me landing a winning Powerball ticket and Mrs. AZ telling me that she's invited the Blackhawks' Ice Crew girls to join us in the bedroom.

Scenario 1: Glennon is a replacement leave placeholder - Nothing here that derails Trubisky as the future at the position, and $15M is far too much for a backup and is prohibitive to trading him. Renegotiate his deal, otherwise probably cut and replace him.

Scenario 2: Glennon is above average (thinking 2000 Kerry Collins with the Giants) - Scenario 1 still applies re: Trubisky, however being a 28-year old solid starter still with potential upside making $10M less than the top QBs for the next 2 years gives him immense trade value. Move him to the highest bidder.

Scenario 3: Glennon is below average or worse - He's cut.
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51to54


Joined: 29 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Glennon plays well enough to help the Bears make the playoffs then Pace screwed up by wasting a 3rd pick and other quality draft picks to pick a rookie backup QB that, according to the scenario, won't be ready to backup until 2018 or later. So even if the Bears fell into a top 10 Glennon they then immediately blew it by wasting a top 3 pick and more for a bench warmer.
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Sugashane


Joined: 06 Jan 2013
Posts: 3309
PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

51to54 wrote:
If Glennon plays well enough to help the Bears make the playoffs then Pace screwed up by wasting a 3rd pick and other quality draft picks to pick a rookie backup QB that, according to the scenario, won't be ready to backup until 2018 or later. So even if the Bears fell into a top 10 Glennon they then immediately blew it by wasting a top 3 pick and more for a bench warmer.


That view is far too shortsighted. How do you deem a pick wasted after one year? Green Bay would have looked incredibly stupid had they taken that approach with Rodgers. This decision was made for the next 10 year plan, not for this year alone.

Getting to the playoffs once every few years isn't special. Cutler did that, Grossman did that, Orton did that. They were able to ride defense and special teams to the playoffs, but getting there still happened even if the offense was poor (for a number of reasons). Glennon does it one year and the number 2 pick was a waste? Hell no.

If Glennon hits the numbers dll2000 mentioned, then trade him because you're looking at a potential Peyton Hillis-like flop coming up. With Trubisky you at least have the potential of a franchise QB, and his rookie year has next to nothing to do with his career as a whole.

As of the other picks being "quality" I see no reason to assume he gets some incredible talents there while still assuming the 2nd overall pick to be a failure. They are no more safe than the higher pick.
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bearsfan323


Joined: 02 Apr 2014
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

51to54 wrote:
If Glennon plays well enough to help the Bears make the playoffs then Pace screwed up by wasting a 3rd pick and other quality draft picks to pick a rookie backup QB that, according to the scenario, won't be ready to backup until 2018 or later. So even if the Bears fell into a top 10 Glennon they then immediately blew it by wasting a top 3 pick and more for a bench warmer.

So I read this right, the Bears mess up if Glennon is good and Trubisky takes 1-2 years to develop into a starter? Oh.
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DaMike


Joined: 21 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we're gonna talk 10 wins it's no stupider to talk 16 right since both have about 0.00001% chance of happening?
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51to54


Joined: 29 Jun 2008
Posts: 1809
PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bearsfan323 wrote:
51to54 wrote:
If Glennon plays well enough to help the Bears make the playoffs then Pace screwed up by wasting a 3rd pick and other quality draft picks to pick a rookie backup QB that, according to the scenario, won't be ready to backup until 2018 or later. So even if the Bears fell into a top 10 Glennon they then immediately blew it by wasting a top 3 pick and more for a bench warmer.

So I read this right, the Bears mess up if Glennon is good and Trubisky takes 1-2 years to develop into a starter? Oh.

Yep.

If you have a Young Rivers on your roster and you draft a rookie QB in a deal costing you the 3rd overall pick and some good middle round picks, you screwed up. I seriously doubt Pace thinks Glennon = Rivers, but based on what he paid Glennon maybe he did and then if Glennon turns out to be a top 10 starter Pace wasted the 3rd overall pick on a backup.

I think that Glennon was merely insurance in case Pace could not swing a deal to get his franchise QB in the 2017 draft than it's a lessor screwup with merely a few million dollar too much cap hit for his insurance policy. This is what probably was going on so not a horrible screw up compared to over drafting a backup.
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51to54


Joined: 29 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sugashane wrote:
51to54 wrote:
If Glennon plays well enough to help the Bears make the playoffs then Pace screwed up by wasting a 3rd pick and other quality draft picks to pick a rookie backup QB that, according to the scenario, won't be ready to backup until 2018 or later. So even if the Bears fell into a top 10 Glennon they then immediately blew it by wasting a top 3 pick and more for a bench warmer.


That view is far too shortsighted. How do you deem a pick wasted after one year? Green Bay would have looked incredibly stupid had they taken that approach with Rodgers. This decision was made for the next 10 year plan, not for this year alone.

Getting to the playoffs once every few years isn't special. Cutler did that, Grossman did that, Orton did that. They were able to ride defense and special teams to the playoffs, but getting there still happened even if the offense was poor (for a number of reasons). Glennon does it one year and the number 2 pick was a waste? Hell no.

If Glennon hits the numbers dll2000 mentioned, then trade him because you're looking at a potential Peyton Hillis-like flop coming up. With Trubisky you at least have the potential of a franchise QB, and his rookie year has next to nothing to do with his career as a whole.

As of the other picks being "quality" I see no reason to assume he gets some incredible talents there while still assuming the 2nd overall pick to be a failure. They are no more safe than the higher pick.

I was using the scenario listed of Glennon not only making the playoffs, but looking like it was not a fluke. Also, he'd be taking a 3-13 team to the playoffs in one year. Much more impressive than taking a 11-5 team back to the playoffs. Just how good would Trubisky have to be to bench a guy who just showed he's a quality NFL playoff QB?

Wasted as in why draft a QB with the second if you have a young and good playoff caliber QB on the roster already? Quality slots to pick and not necessarily quality players drafted with the picks, ergo, better than round 6 and 7 slots.

As I noted in another posting, I think Glennon was just insurance in case Pace could not get the QB he wanted in the 2017 draft, but if Glennon turns out to be a very good QB than Pace and crew made a big mistake in their evaluation of him and over-drafted a QB in the 2017 draft. There are lots worse mistakes in the NFL than winding up with a valid top 10 QB, but it's still a mistake to base your 2017 draft on Glennon not being a quality starter if he turns out (per the scenario given) to be one.

I'm not a Glennon fan, but why does everyone assume that if has a very good 2017 season that his performance will fall off a cliff in 2018 and thus we should trade him after a very good 2017?
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AZBearsFan


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Posts: 13187
PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

51to54 wrote:
bearsfan323 wrote:
51to54 wrote:
If Glennon plays well enough to help the Bears make the playoffs then Pace screwed up by wasting a 3rd pick and other quality draft picks to pick a rookie backup QB that, according to the scenario, won't be ready to backup until 2018 or later. So even if the Bears fell into a top 10 Glennon they then immediately blew it by wasting a top 3 pick and more for a bench warmer.

So I read this right, the Bears mess up if Glennon is good and Trubisky takes 1-2 years to develop into a starter? Oh.

Yep.

If you have a Young Rivers on your roster and you draft a rookie QB in a deal costing you the 3rd overall pick and some good middle round picks, you screwed up. I seriously doubt Pace thinks Glennon = Rivers, but based on what he paid Glennon maybe he did and then if Glennon turns out to be a top 10 starter Pace wasted the 3rd overall pick on a backup.

I think that Glennon was merely insurance in case Pace could not swing a deal to get his franchise QB in the 2017 draft than it's a lessor screwup with merely a few million dollar too much cap hit for his insurance policy. This is what probably was going on so not a horrible screw up compared to over drafting a backup.

Why does it always come back to the money with Glennon? We still have like $20M in cap space even with him on the books for $15M. We could have given him $25M for this year and it wouldn't have limited us in any way financially. We did what we had to do to make sure we got our preferred bridge QB already knowing at the time that Trubisky was our target (if you believe Pace, and why would he lie about that after the trade up to make the selection?). I don't think the money Glennon got means anything more than that. Also, Glennon's $15M AAV is 22nd in the NFL amongst QBs. That's below average starter money. His $15M salary guarantees him nothing. BTW 23rd in QB AAV, ironically, is Trubisky.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/quarterback/

(To everyone, not just you) How good would Glennon have to be this year to justify keeping him as our starter? I'm looking for a player comp. I personally think it's less than likely that he proves to be any better than Cutler, which would make all of this "what if he's on par with a likely HOF" business go away really quickly. I'm still not convinced that he starts week 1. He's a mid round pick with no commitment, and Trubisky is the chosen future with more physical ability. Loggains gets a ton of crap but he had Matt Barkley looking competent for a month with almost no lead time before him hitting the field.
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Sugashane


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

51to54 wrote:
Sugashane wrote:
51to54 wrote:
If Glennon plays well enough to help the Bears make the playoffs then Pace screwed up by wasting a 3rd pick and other quality draft picks to pick a rookie backup QB that, according to the scenario, won't be ready to backup until 2018 or later. So even if the Bears fell into a top 10 Glennon they then immediately blew it by wasting a top 3 pick and more for a bench warmer.


That view is far too shortsighted. How do you deem a pick wasted after one year? Green Bay would have looked incredibly stupid had they taken that approach with Rodgers. This decision was made for the next 10 year plan, not for this year alone.

Getting to the playoffs once every few years isn't special. Cutler did that, Grossman did that, Orton did that. They were able to ride defense and special teams to the playoffs, but getting there still happened even if the offense was poor (for a number of reasons). Glennon does it one year and the number 2 pick was a waste? Hell no.

If Glennon hits the numbers dll2000 mentioned, then trade him because you're looking at a potential Peyton Hillis-like flop coming up. With Trubisky you at least have the potential of a franchise QB, and his rookie year has next to nothing to do with his career as a whole.

As of the other picks being "quality" I see no reason to assume he gets some incredible talents there while still assuming the 2nd overall pick to be a failure. They are no more safe than the higher pick.

I was using the scenario listed of Glennon not only making the playoffs, but looking like it was not a fluke. Also, he'd be taking a 3-13 team to the playoffs in one year. Much more impressive than taking a 11-5 team back to the playoffs. Just how good would Trubisky have to be to bench a guy who just showed he's a quality NFL playoff QB?

Wasted as in why draft a QB with the second if you have a young and good playoff caliber QB on the roster already? Quality slots to pick and not necessarily quality players drafted with the picks, ergo, better than round 6 and 7 slots.

As I noted in another posting, I think Glennon was just insurance in case Pace could not get the QB he wanted in the 2017 draft, but if Glennon turns out to be a very good QB than Pace and crew made a big mistake in their evaluation of him and over-drafted a QB in the 2017 draft. There are lots worse mistakes in the NFL than winding up with a valid top 10 QB, but it's still a mistake to base your 2017 draft on Glennon not being a quality starter if he turns out (per the scenario given) to be one.

I'm not a Glennon fan, but why does everyone assume that if has a very good 2017 season that his performance will fall off a cliff in 2018 and thus we should trade him after a very good 2017?


I can see we have a few spot disconnecting our views. Under no circumstance do I believe Glennon looks like a quality playoff caliber QB, and any above average season for a starting QB would indeed be a fluke IMO. I have as little faith that Glennon becomes a top 10 QB as I do White matching Randy Moss' career statistics. It's not going to happen.

Our 3-13 season was far more due to the injuries than talent of starters. We were down to Matt Barkley, Bellamy/Thompson, Hurst, Glenn, Sutton, and CJ Wilson all starting at one point. Outside of Brady starting for us, we weren't sniffing 8-8 with the injuries we had (which is about what we were capable of if healthy IMO). I will be very interested in more than just the win/loss record, I want to see how the offense produces as a whole. Does Glennon produce with the 4000+ yards and 2:1 TD/INT ratio? Or does Howard have to shoulder the burden in a fashion that AP had to do for the Vikes for years while they have incompetent QB play? How well do we do on third down especially, as that has been a massive issue for Glennon (though his supporting cast was quite poor).

I've seen us go to the NFC Championship with Jay leading an offensively bad offensive cast (carried by an elite defense and special teams), I've seen DEN with the Super Bowl while Peyton Manning was a liability for the season, but I don't believe I will see Glennon perform near the level of a franchise QB.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the only way Glennon is back in 2018 is if he puts up Pro Bowl numbers.

21 TDs and 12 INTs doesn't do it for me.
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