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Pressure and Time

 
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Shanedorf


Joined: 18 Mar 2014
Posts: 1583
PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 12:58 am    Post subject: Pressure and Time Reply with quote



From Football Outsiders 2016 Pressure

“Sacks are often the gold standard of measurement for pressure, but simply hitting a quarterback while he's in his throwing motion can stall a drive just as well, or even lead to an interception. Pressure brings a lot more value than just sacks. Even ignoring sacks, passers under pressure in 2016 lost roughly 2.0 yards per throw, saw their completion rate drop by 23.5 percentage points, and had their touchdown-to-interception ratio cut in half.”

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/defense-and-pass-pressure-2016

"These numbers summarize the 2016 Packers well. The pass rush didn't get home often, but was effective when it did (fifth in DVOA), and the banged-up secondary fell apart when it didn't (28th in DVOA). Hence, the Packers had the biggest decline in DVOA (-128.4%) between when their pass-rush failed to generate pressure"

From JSO year end review of 2016:

"In 2010, the Packers’ last championship season, they totaled 240 pressures, which are defined here as the total of sacks, knockdowns and hurries. They had 213 this past season."

"As a unit, the defensive line had 48½ pressures, [i]20 fewer than a year ago. The linebackers registered 149, 22 more than a year ago, and the defensive backs totaled 15½, about the same as last year."

Coordinator Dom Capers blitzed five or more on 27.3% of passes, which was far less than 36.3% in 2015. It was a low for Capers since his first season in Green Bay,

"When the pressure contained five or more people, Capers blitzed inside linebackers 120 times, safeties 86 times and cornerbacks 66 times."

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/mcginn/2017/02/09/mcginn-2016-packers-numbers/97661344/?from=global&sessionKey=&autologin=

Lots more in the links
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Shanedorf


Joined: 18 Mar 2014
Posts: 1583
PostPosted: Mon Jun 26, 2017 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

acmepackers checking in with their analysis based on the Football Outsiders charts

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2017/6/26/15874728/packers-defensive-results-pass-rush-pressure-2016-football-outsiders

The Packers pressured the quarterback on 27.0% of passing snaps, almost exactly the league average rate of 27.1%, and Green Bay ranked 16th in that stat. Furthermore, the rate of pressure does not vary all that widely across the NFL; the top-ranked Denver Broncos had a rate of 32.2%.

When the Packers pressured the quarterback, they were the fifth-best defense in the NFL. That corresponds to a DVOA rating of -80.3% (note that negative numbers favor the defense). the four teams that rated better with pressure were as follows: Cardinals (-92.1%), Buccaneers (-89.2%), Chiefs (-89.0%), and Giants (-80.8%)

So when the Packers applied pressure they were top 5, when they didn't they were a bottom 5 defense.
No help at all from the banged up secondary - and that has to change/improve in 2017.

Better coverage = more time to pressure and get home
Here is Charisma's post on the topic from earlier this offseason

[quote="ChaRisMa"]
Corners are slow and hurt. Arrow Safeties have to help them constantly. Arrow Safeties aren't free to use instincts. Arrow Linebackers have more coverage responsibility. Arrow Linebackers aren't free to use instincts or pass rush. Arrow DL now asked to pressure QB and play run. Arrow Not their skill set by defensive design. Arrow Defense fails.
..
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HokieHigh


Joined: 18 Aug 2009
Posts: 2114
Location: Blacksburg
PostPosted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is something to be said for DC lulling offenses to sleep with easy productivity, and then suddenly flipping the script on them.

This probably causes big mistakes like turnovers, especially against weak minded offenses.
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Shanedorf


Joined: 18 Mar 2014
Posts: 1583
PostPosted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cheesehead TV on Dean Lowry

http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/lowry-fits-mold-that-packers-value-along-d-line-226

Lowry actually led the defensive line in pressures per snap (with one every 25.1 snaps) in 2016. Though Datone Jones finished third in the team in pressures, he played 635 snaps, nearly 400 of which were in pass-rushing situations. Lowry played in just 213 snaps. Jones finished with a sack; Lowry earned a pair.


More on Lowry from packers.com

http://www.packers.com/news-and-events/article-player-feature/article-1/Dean-Lowry-expects-to-build-on-strong-finish/57f05309-e7be-4f13-afda-b9dee3baa3f7

A fourth-round draft pick getting a handful of snaps on the defensive line here and there most of last year, Lowry suddenly showed up big in Week 13 vs. Houston.
He powered through two blockers to bring down QB Brock Osweiler for his first NFL sack. Three defensive series later, he got into the backfield again and batted down an Osweiler pass.

The impact provided a boost to both his confidence and his playing time, and one week later against Seattle, he played his best game. Involved in a season-high 34 defensive snaps, he recorded four tackles, including his second career sack, this time of a scrambling Russell Wilson.

If those two performances are any indication of what’s to come for the 6-6, 296-pounder from Northwestern, the Packers’ defense should have much more than just another rotational player in 2017.
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AlexGreen#20


Joined: 13 Jun 2012
Posts: 13518
PostPosted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you pretty much have it nailed right here:

ChaRisMa wrote:

Corners are slow and hurt. Arrow Safeties have to help them constantly. Arrow Safeties aren't free to use instincts. Arrow Linebackers have more coverage responsibility. Arrow Linebackers aren't free to use instincts or pass rush. Arrow DL now asked to pressure QB and play run. Arrow Not their skill set by defensive design. Arrow Defense fails.

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BroncoinGermany wrote:
From the day he was born and subsequently starting to grow into his short neck, round face, scruffy beard and pale face, Bulaga was destined to be a Packers O-Linemen for life.
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Shanedorf


Joined: 18 Mar 2014
Posts: 1583
PostPosted: Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From Zach Kruse at Packerwire

http://packerswire.usatoday.com/2017/07/05/importance-of-sacks-to-creating-stops-for-the-packers-defense/

"Derrik Klassen sorted through the data from 2016 to find the “tangible value of sacks,” and he found some interesting stats; namely, producing a sack on any given drive results in that drive ending in a stop at a rate of over 80 percent across the NFL.

"…According to Klassen’s numbers, the Packers defense had 41 drives last season with at least one sack. Opposing offenses were unable to convert first downs after the sack on 37 of the 41 drives, good for a percentage of 90.2. Only the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans and New York Jets had a better percentage in 2016"
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Shanedorf


Joined: 18 Mar 2014
Posts: 1583
PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Packers 2016 defense did not do well vs play action

In fact, they were one of the worst teams vs play action
Football Outsiders breaks it down for every team

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-play-action-defense

"....Green Bay, on the other hand, was an adequate standard pass defense, but completely lost their way when play-action entered the equation. Their difference of 53.7% was dramatic, but not unprecedented; Green Bay had a difference of 40.1% in 2015 as well"

"All this being said, it's important to remember that sustaining defensive success (or lack thereof) is difficult in the NFL, and wild swings from one year to the next are not uncommon. The year-to-year correlation on play-action defensive DVOA is just 0.07, so fans in Oakland or Detroit or Green Bay have every reason to hope their guys will bounce back in 2017."
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DavidatMIZZOU


Joined: 09 Apr 2009
Posts: 16101
Location: The ZOU
PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are the play action woes possibly a symptom of overall poor team speed? Shields was done. Randall was hurt all season. Gunter, Hyde, and Rollins weren't going to win a track meet. The hesitation in covering the fake run added to the lack of recovery speed gets guys behind a defense?

Might the additions of House, King, Josh Jones, and a healthy Randall help simply because they are a half a step faster?
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GO PACK GO!

mistakebytehlak wrote:

My god it must be so terrible to have three teams that consistently make the playoffs

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AlexGreen#20


Joined: 13 Jun 2012
Posts: 13518
PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DavidatMIZZOU wrote:
Are the play action woes possibly a symptom of overall poor team speed? Shields was done. Randall was hurt all season. Gunter, Hyde, and Rollins weren't going to win a track meet. The hesitation in covering the fake run added to the lack of recovery speed gets guys behind a defense?

Might the additions of House, King, Josh Jones, and a healthy Randall help simply because they are a half a step faster?


I'd guess it has more to do with a lack or reps than a lack of legs.
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BroncoinGermany wrote:
From the day he was born and subsequently starting to grow into his short neck, round face, scruffy beard and pale face, Bulaga was destined to be a Packers O-Linemen for life.
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Shanedorf


Joined: 18 Mar 2014
Posts: 1583
PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've read here at FF that susceptibility to play action is often the result of young LBs lunging at phantoms and young CB's peeking in the backfield

Age and wisdom might help...
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