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Trevor Siemian Expecatios In 2017
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
Posts: 3609
PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

champ11 wrote:
germ-x wrote:
^^^ The whole argument that it takes a rocket scientist who has "acumen" to be a QB in the NFL is incredibly overblown as well. For every Tom Brady there is a Brett Favre. For every Jamarcus Russell a Joey Harrington.


Agreed.

It's actually shocking to me that running ability is not more valued at the quarterback position, but the NFL isn't exactly progressive in breaking out of positional archetypes.


FWIW I don't think most college schemes allow NFL teams to really figure out how much functional mobility QB's have. The ability to keep their eyes up while moving around the pocket, pocket awareness and lightning release all matter as much as speed. Mariota was pretty raw for a pro style O but his ability to keep his eyes up with his scrambling has translated well so far in his development (esp. with upgrading that OL, shocker). Winston isn't nearly as fast but has uncanny awareness and release to extend plays. It's not easily quantifiable but it's certainly necessary these days. Another part of the cognitive vs. physical toolset equation.
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thebestever6


Joined: 03 Jan 2008
Posts: 3182
PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Paxton as a rookie looked jittery. If your base and foorwork are bad your throws and being accurate will also struggle. Everything starts with the base.


I've heard positive things on Paxton and his footwork and not having the deer in headlights look. That's positive.
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Big Palooka wrote:
"They don't have to worry about him making consistent passes. They will win another 2-3 max with him at QB."
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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jsthomp2007 wrote:
AKRNA wrote:
BroncosFan2010 wrote:
Quote:
He has every physical trait on Siemian. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic, a better runner, and has superior arm talent. Siemian's knowledge of the game, decision making, and ability to read defenses is superior.


Exactly, every trait that he has over Siemian is what I would consider a 'cherry on top' trait. The main course for a QB is his knowledge of the game, decision making, timing on throws, anticipation, ability to read a defense, ability to throw with accuracy, ability to change plays on the LOS, etc.

Its the 'cherry on top' when a guy can do the above but also turn a broken play into a 6 yard scramble. That's just a bonus, but the real meat-and-potatoes of QB acumen comes outside the physical profile. There is a benchmark in terms of physical profile needed to literally stay on the field, but once you pass that benchmark, it reverts back to nuance and intelligence over a rocket arm and some scrambling ability.

If physical metrics took the front seat in terms of QB'ing then Logan Thomas would be a HOF candidate and Tom Brady would be serving McDonalds.


I love this post. Very accurate and well put.


John Elway was the cherry on top
.


Absolutely! He definitely was. It was frustrating watching him develop though. It took years before he really mastered the mental part of the game.

Back then it was Marino/Elway comparisons. marino had everything mentally that Elway didn't. Elway finally added the "cherry on top".
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broncos_fan _from _uk


Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My expectations?

3,764 yards
28 TDs
14 Ints

Tom Brady in his 3rd year.
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germ-x


Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos_fan _from _uk wrote:
My expectations?

3,764 yards
28 TDs
14 Ints

Tom Brady in his 3rd year.


If he does that Elway is going to look like a fool drafting Lynch and not only that trading up to do it. Chris Jones would've looked damn nice in a Broncos jersey.

Elway is about winning, but Lynch is his guy, all reports have indicated that. Lynch will get his shot, which could also be a mistake.
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BroncoBruin


Joined: 06 Oct 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is good reason for them to want Lynch to win it too. That 5th year option number for Paxton will be ugly. By the end of 2018 they need to know if Lynch is the future and decide between three alternatives: put a 20+ million dollar fifth year option on him, start working on a long term contract, or trade him/re-sign Siemian. Buf if he doesn't win the job this year it will be tough for him to see the field going forward outside of Siemian injuries as I think Siemian in this offense will play at that "just good enough to justify starting for a while" level. So all the pressure is on Lynch to win the job and give the Broncos the info they need to decide whether or not he's worth the long term investment. Two years starting before having to make a commitment would be ideal.
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AnAngryAmerican


Joined: 23 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
broncos_fan _from _uk wrote:
My expectations?

3,764 yards
28 TDs
14 Ints

Tom Brady in his 3rd year.


If he does that Elway is going to look like a fool drafting Lynch and not only that trading up to do it. Chris Jones would've looked damn nice in a Broncos jersey.

Elway is about winning, but Lynch is his guy, all reports have indicated that. Lynch will get his shot, which could also be a mistake.

Once Elway gets his guy, he goes for him. Lynch, Vance, Bolles, all are one in the the same. Two of those three better pan out, Elway & Ellis think Elway's name and one Lombardi make him Teflon. They're in for a major surprise should two of those three, or, more likely, all three, flame out.
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bhslinebacker wrote:
AAA is right, as he usually is.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BroncoBruin wrote:
There is good reason for them to want Lynch to win it too. That 5th year option number for Paxton will be ugly. By the end of 2018 they need to know if Lynch is the future and decide between three alternatives: put a 20+ million dollar fifth year option on him, start working on a long term contract, or trade him/re-sign Siemian. Buf if he doesn't win the job this year it will be tough for him to see the field going forward outside of Siemian injuries as I think Siemian in this offense will play at that "just good enough to justify starting for a while" level. So all the pressure is on Lynch to win the job and give the Broncos the info they need to decide whether or not he's worth the long term investment. Two years starting before having to make a commitment would be ideal.


The above is mostly all correct - but one key distinction, the 5th year option is only likely to be 20M+ for a 1-10 QB pick - right now, for a 11-32 pick the QB 5th year option for 1st rounders is 12.2M. That's still more than enough for Elway & co. to want to know what they have well before 2019 comes around for sure, but unlike Jax & Bortles, the # here is more manageable if Lynch is even just a league average starting QB. Also keep in mind that while the 5th year option sounds steep, it's only guaranteed for injury - meaning that a team can still walk away with no cap hit, unless the player can't pass a physical by start of the new year (still a risk, but not locking in like you do with fully guaranteed contracts). If Roby's play suddenly sucks as long as he's not hurt we could walk away from his 5th year option (unlikely but the ability to walk away is there).

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-status-update-of-fifth-year-options-for-every-2014-first-round-draft-pick/

The main point BB is making is still there, just that the option isn't nearly as expensive being a 11-32 pick, making it more palatable even for an average QB, nor is it a lock even if it's exercised. But it's still very much part of the equation if there's little gap between Lynch & Siemian. Right now, there's still a sizeable gap, so how far Lynch develops is key here. Unlike this past offseason, where neither guy was going to get any worthwhile return (and banking on a Lynch progression is nowhere a lock), next offseason, if Lynch does progress (still a big IF), we could see a QB trade for sure - all of which is dependent on Lynch showing he can be an asset to a team, and Siemian progressing (even if it's just a small progression), and Kelly can show he's able to be a capable backup (this year it's showing he can master a playbook in film room, and stay out of trouble injury and behavior wise).. Frankly, we should hope we are in that position of 2 serviceable QB's - one of the few ways to fill our 2018+ roster economically will be getting a return on either QB.

2018 is a swing year for sure - it's Siemian's final year and super cheap at 700K+. Elway will want to either lock him up or get decent trade value if he's still our starter. How 2017 unfolds no doubt leads to his 2018 long term commitments to either guy.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.


Last edited by Broncofan on Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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BroncosFan2010


Joined: 04 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

If he does that Elway is going to look like a fool drafting Lynch and not only that trading up to do it. Chris Jones would've looked damn nice in a Broncos jersey.


I disagree with this. You don't bank on a 7th round QB. Elway made the right move to target a QB in 2015. Its just that Trevor was way better last season than many expected, myself included. I expect him to build on that this season. Paxton will be on the bench unless Elway puts draft position over on-field play, which I sorta expect him to do.
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jsthomp2007


Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BroncosFan2010 wrote:
Quote:

If he does that Elway is going to look like a fool drafting Lynch and not only that trading up to do it. Chris Jones would've looked damn nice in a Broncos jersey.


I disagree with this. You don't bank on a 7th round QB. Elway made the right move to target a QB in 2015. Its just that Trevor was way better last season than many expected, myself included. I expect him to build on that this season. Paxton will be on the bench unless Elway puts draft position over on-field play, which I sorta expect him to do.


I think you are correct in your assessments. I think the expectation for Siemien was that he would fight for a backup spot.

If Siemien becomes a stellar QB, who cares where he was draft, and who cares if Paxton was a 1st rounder. How many teams would love to have stability at the QB positions. If Siemien is the guy, and Paxton has to get traded, or cut...so be it. If he out performs Siemien...great!! I hope that happens actually, because that means the Broncos will be set for 10-15-20 years.
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AKRNA


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read an interesting response from one of our DB's (can't remember which) when asked about the QB competition.

He said he loved it. With Paxton he raved about his arm strength, with Siemian he raved about his accuracy and intelligence.

Too bad we can't combine them.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AKRNA wrote:
I read an interesting response from one of our DB's (can't remember which) when asked about the QB competition.

He said he loved it. With Paxton he raved about his arm strength, with Siemian he raved about his accuracy and intelligence.

Too bad we can't combine them.


That was Chris Harris last week, FWIW. Yeah, you combine the 2, it's a top 5 overall QB. Being as good as Siemian is with accuracy and game IQ is no guarantee, however - accuracy and anticipation are the 2 most elusive acquired skills raw talents don't acquire. On the other hand, Siemian will never have Lynch's ceiling physically.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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jsthomp2007


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What happens if Pax and Sim suck this year, and you got Kap sitting there looking for work?
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champ11


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jsthomp2007 wrote:
What happens if Pax and Sim suck this year, and you got Kap sitting there looking for work?



well he'd probably be the best QB we could put out there next year, but he's obviously at his ceiling and we have two young QBs we like. but yeah I mean the fact that he isn't signed is laughable.
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BroncosFan2010


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
well he'd probably be the best QB we could put out there next year, but he's obviously at his ceiling and we have two young QBs we like. but yeah I mean the fact that he isn't signed is laughable.


Ya, he definitely should be signed but he never was that great of a QB. He is basically a one-read-and-run type, which means he would need to find a job as a backup to a team with a similar starting QB. You don't sign Colin if you run a pocket passing offense. He would be a decent fit in a Shanny type offense with a lot of play-action rollouts but that simply isn't too prevalent in the NFL these days.

His anthem stuff is absolutely not reason enough to pass him over, but his QB limitations are totally legit. I easily would take Trevor over him and hope that he continues to develop. Colin is nearly 30 and when his body ages, and he loses the threat of long-striding one to the house, he will be a huge liability.
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