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Trevor Siemian Expecatios In 2017
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BroncosFan2010


Joined: 04 Feb 2010
Posts: 3900
PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
He has every physical trait on Siemian. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic, a better runner, and has superior arm talent. Siemian's knowledge of the game, decision making, and ability to read defenses is superior.


Exactly, every trait that he has over Siemian is what I would consider a 'cherry on top' trait. The main course for a QB is his knowledge of the game, decision making, timing on throws, anticipation, ability to read a defense, ability to throw with accuracy, ability to change plays on the LOS, etc.

Its the 'cherry on top' when a guy can do the above but also turn a broken play into a 6 yard scramble. That's just a bonus, but the real meat-and-potatoes of QB acumen comes outside the physical profile. There is a benchmark in terms of physical profile needed to literally stay on the field, but once you pass that benchmark, it reverts back to nuance and intelligence over a rocket arm and some scrambling ability.

If physical metrics took the front seat in terms of QB'ing then Logan Thomas would be a HOF candidate and Tom Brady would be serving McDonalds.
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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Lynch will be given every opportunity to win the job. I actually wouldn't be too surprised to see almost a "musical chairs" situation at QB this season. One thing I think will come out of it is a starter for next year and the future. I don't think there will be a QB controversy in 2018. One of the two will win the job outright, the other will be traded.

Kind of off topic but it seems to me our emphasis this year will be developing our young talent and positioning ourselves for a legitimate 2018 SB run. That's why by the end of the year our starters for 2018 should be locked in.

At QB: one of Lynch or Siemian will separate himself and be our QBOTF

At LT: Hopefully they bring Bolles along slowly. Play him when he's ready with the emphasis being on 2018. I'd love to see Ty step up and play to his abilities.

Our DL: Let Gotsis and Walker play a lot. Minimize Pekos snaps and develop the younger guys.

Offense: Lots of trial and error this year. I think Henderson will turn out to be a huge addition. In almost all aspects he's a McCaffery clone. Size, speed, quickness,.......... Used properly he could be a real weapon. Jake Butt won't do much this year but by 2018 he could add another dimension. If Derby or heuerman step up we could field a dangerous two TE set.

Defense: we should be really good. Great OLB's,and secondary. deep also. Should see continuing improvement on our DL. By years end they could be dominant again.

Anyway, I think only the most fanatic Bronco's homer would think we'll be solid SB contenders this year. Too many things have to happen in a very tough division. 2018 and beyond though is a different story.

KC's already in a cap crunch and Oakland has one on the horizon. Elway and Sullivan have got us a bit of room but most remarkably have our "dead money" figure at $70,000. pretty remarkable and the 2nd lowest in the league.

What do I expect this year? A competitive team from the start but improving weekly. By the end of the year I think we'll be a team no one wants to play. Unfortunately our season will end without the playoffs.

If by some miracle we can get in we may make some noise.

So, this was fun. Very Happy When it comes to the Bronco's I'm a "glass half full" guy. We'll learn a lot this season. Wink

Defense: We should be better this year with improvement in the trenches
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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
Posts: 6952
PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Lynch will be given every opportunity to win the job. I actually wouldn't be too surprised to see almost a "musical chairs" situation at QB this season. One thing I think will come out of it is a starter for next year and the future. I don't think there will be a QB controversy in 2018. One of the two will win the job outright, the other will be traded.

Kind of off topic but it seems to me our emphasis this year will be developing our young talent and positioning ourselves for a legitimate 2018 SB run. That's why by the end of the year our starters for 2018 should be locked in.

At QB: one of Lynch or Siemian will separate himself and be our QBOTF

At LT: Hopefully they bring Bolles along slowly. Play him when he's ready with the emphasis being on 2018. I'd love to see Ty step up and play to his abilities. Bottom line though, if Bolles works himself into a starting role this season I'll be happy. He'll get nothing but better and we can quit worrying about LT.

Our DL: Let Gotsis and Walker play a lot. Minimize Pekos snaps and develop the younger guys.

Offense: Lots of trial and error this year. I think Henderson will turn out to be a huge addition. In almost all aspects he's a McCaffery clone. Size, speed, quickness,.......... Used properly he could be a real weapon. Jake Butt won't do much this year but by 2018 he could add another dimension. If Derby or heuerman step up we could field a dangerous two TE set.

Defense: we should be really good. Great OLB's,and secondary. deep also. Should see continuing improvement on our DL. By years end they could be dominant again.

Anyway, I think only the most fanatic Bronco's homer would think we'll be solid SB contenders this year. Too many things have to happen in a very tough division. 2018 and beyond though is a different story.

KC's already in a cap crunch and Oakland has one on the horizon. Elway and Sullivan have got us a bit of room but most remarkably have our "dead money" figure at $70,000. pretty remarkable and the 2nd lowest in the league.

What do I expect this year? A competitive team from the start but improving weekly. By the end of the year I think we'll be a team no one wants to play. Unfortunately our season will end without the playoffs.

If by some miracle we can get in we may make some noise.

So, this was fun. Very Happy When it comes to the Bronco's I'm a "glass half full" guy. We'll learn a lot this season. Wink
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germ-x


Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BroncosFan2010 wrote:
Quote:
He has every physical trait on Siemian. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic, a better runner, and has superior arm talent. Siemian's knowledge of the game, decision making, and ability to read defenses is superior.


Exactly, every trait that he has over Siemian is what I would consider a 'cherry on top' trait. The main course for a QB is his knowledge of the game, decision making, timing on throws, anticipation, ability to read a defense, ability to throw with accuracy, ability to change plays on the LOS, etc.

Its the 'cherry on top' when a guy can do the above but also turn a broken play into a 6 yard scramble. That's just a bonus, but the real meat-and-potatoes of QB acumen comes outside the physical profile. There is a benchmark in terms of physical profile needed to literally stay on the field, but once you pass that benchmark, it reverts back to nuance and intelligence over a rocket arm and some scrambling ability.

If physical metrics took the front seat in terms of QB'ing then Logan Thomas would be a HOF candidate and Tom Brady would be serving McDonalds.


Part of acquiring your first paragraph is by actually being given the opportunity to play. As I eluded to in my post. Only so much can be achieved throwing footballs when you can't be hit or sitting in meetings going through the motions.

Again, unless there are severe mental limitations Lynch is showing at some point he needs to be handed the reigns to see what he's made of.
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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BroncosFan2010 wrote:
Quote:
He has every physical trait on Siemian. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic, a better runner, and has superior arm talent. Siemian's knowledge of the game, decision making, and ability to read defenses is superior.


Exactly, every trait that he has over Siemian is what I would consider a 'cherry on top' trait. The main course for a QB is his knowledge of the game, decision making, timing on throws, anticipation, ability to read a defense, ability to throw with accuracy, ability to change plays on the LOS, etc.

Its the 'cherry on top' when a guy can do the above but also turn a broken play into a 6 yard scramble. That's just a bonus, but the real meat-and-potatoes of QB acumen comes outside the physical profile. There is a benchmark in terms of physical profile needed to literally stay on the field, but once you pass that benchmark, it reverts back to nuance and intelligence over a rocket arm and some scrambling ability.

If physical metrics took the front seat in terms of QB'ing then Logan Thomas would be a HOF candidate and Tom Brady would be serving McDonalds.


I love this post. Very accurate and well put.
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^ The whole argument that it takes a rocket scientist who has "acumen" to be a QB in the NFL is incredibly overblown as well. For every Tom Brady there is a Brett Favre. For every Jamarcus Russell a Joey Harrington.
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jsthomp2007


Joined: 11 Jan 2008
Posts: 8722
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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AKRNA wrote:
BroncosFan2010 wrote:
Quote:
He has every physical trait on Siemian. He's bigger, stronger, more athletic, a better runner, and has superior arm talent. Siemian's knowledge of the game, decision making, and ability to read defenses is superior.


Exactly, every trait that he has over Siemian is what I would consider a 'cherry on top' trait. The main course for a QB is his knowledge of the game, decision making, timing on throws, anticipation, ability to read a defense, ability to throw with accuracy, ability to change plays on the LOS, etc.

Its the 'cherry on top' when a guy can do the above but also turn a broken play into a 6 yard scramble. That's just a bonus, but the real meat-and-potatoes of QB acumen comes outside the physical profile. There is a benchmark in terms of physical profile needed to literally stay on the field, but once you pass that benchmark, it reverts back to nuance and intelligence over a rocket arm and some scrambling ability.

If physical metrics took the front seat in terms of QB'ing then Logan Thomas would be a HOF candidate and Tom Brady would be serving McDonalds.


I love this post. Very accurate and well put.


John Elway was the cherry on top.
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champ11


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
^^^ The whole argument that it takes a rocket scientist who has "acumen" to be a QB in the NFL is incredibly overblown as well. For every Tom Brady there is a Brett Favre. For every Jamarcus Russell a Joey Harrington.


Agreed.

It's actually shocking to me that running ability is not more valued at the quarterback position, but the NFL isn't exactly progressive in breaking out of positional archetypes.
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broncos67


Joined: 28 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
^^^ The whole argument that it takes a rocket scientist who has "acumen" to be a QB in the NFL is incredibly overblown as well. For every Tom Brady there is a Brett Favre. For every Jamarcus Russell a Joey Harrington.


I don't think it's overblown really. You don't need to be a rocket scientist, but if you can't pick up more complicates nuances of an NFL-caliber offense, you aren't going to be a successful QB. It's not a league that you can succeed when having overly simplified reads and locking on to one target. The league adjusts quickly.

I don't know if Lynch or Siemian has what it takes, but right now, Siemian has way more in that area to negate, in my mind, any physical disadvantage he may have.
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

champ11 wrote:
germ-x wrote:
^^^ The whole argument that it takes a rocket scientist who has "acumen" to be a QB in the NFL is incredibly overblown as well. For every Tom Brady there is a Brett Favre. For every Jamarcus Russell a Joey Harrington.


Agreed.

It's actually shocking to me that running ability is not more valued at the quarterback position, but the NFL isn't exactly progressive in breaking out of positional archetypes.


Agreed as well.

Obviously being a QB you can't be a dummy, but IMO, a lot of QB success comes down to the situation and coaching. A lot of NFL coaches refuse to play to a QBs strengths and try and mold them to their offense.
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AnAngryAmerican


Joined: 23 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Our QB room is really interesting from a personality perspective, that's for sure. Chad Kelly is the guy who beat up Trevor Siemian in high school while Paxton Lynch sat back making wise-cracks and funny faces about it.

I really don't have any idea what to expect from any of the QBs or, for that matter, from the offense as a whole. I'm probably the only person in Broncos Country who doesn't think Mike McCoy is the greatest offensive coordinator in the history of the world. Truth be told, the dink-and-dunk shotgun spread that throws 15 bubble screens a game (one that led Woody Paige to "bubble scream") certainly didn't work out too well here in 2009 and 2010. And in those seasons we had a QB who at least had a small modicum of NFL QB experience under his belt.

Everyone was gung-ho about signing Russell Okung and Donald Stephenson last year, just as seemingly everyone is about signing Ron Leary and drafting Garrett Bolles is this year, but we will see if the results are different. The John Elway front office doesn't have too high of a batting average with OL draft picks and free agent signings.

McCoy, Musgrave and Davidson have good reputations but their resumes are not littered with Super Bowl titles or even that much playoff success. Our HC last year is the owner of 3 Super Bowl rings and six AFC Championships. This year's head coach admitted he doesn't even know where to stand during practice.

I see a rocky, up-and-down year. This team really only has one true strength and that's its pass defense. Our secondary is hands-down the best in the league and our pass rush ranks up there with anyone as well. But we still don't have a run defense - despite fan base and media cheerl-eading to the contrary, I do not see Peko and Kerr as major upgrades - and our HOF DC from the last two years has been replaced by a rookie. I do not know what to expect out of the OL or run game on offense, a lot of people think it looks better on paper but I have to see it to believe it. We still have questions at QB, one has it from the neck-up and the other neck-down. Our ST should be improved - Brock Olivo is probably the only coaching move/hire this offseason we made that I really like - but STs is the tertiary aspect of the game for a reason.

As of right now I see a middling season, something around .500 seems reasonable if we stay relatively healthy.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
^^^ The whole argument that it takes a rocket scientist who has "acumen" to be a QB in the NFL is incredibly overblown as well. For every Tom Brady there is a Brett Favre. For every Jamarcus Russell a Joey Harrington.


Totally agree you don't need to be a rocket scientist - but the cognitive skill set to read and recognize in a shorter time interval is increasingly more necessary in today's NFL. Reading, ball placement and anticipation are needed with defenders bigger and faster than in the past. The windows are just that much narrower and the time before elite EDGE guys turn the corner is that much shorter. I think it's a huge reason why vet QB's are lasting longer - their knowledge of the O hot reads and OL protection gives them those crucial extra split seconds to succeed vs. raw college guys.

None of the above means Lynch won't progress. But we shouldn't dismiss the gains Siemian made from year 1 to year 2. That's far from a given that any QB will have the light come on as much as Siemian's 2016 cognitive development displayed. People who assume it's what will happen with any 2nd year QB are usually disappointed. Lynch played ok his first game when Tampa wasn't ready for him in the 2H, and more importantly when ALL of their starting DL weren't playing. Not surprisingly even asked to play against D who were ready for him he struggled. D recognition, read progression, anticipation and footwork (which then destroyed the accuracy he showed at Memphis) all really were lacking. Those will all need to take huge steps forward this year. Can it happen? Of course. But assuming it will happen? That's far from a lock. Those are the same reasons why physically talented college QB's fail moving up to the NFL.

The issue with Siemian long term is that as great of a D reader and anticipator / planner Siemian showed he's still really limited physically. Not just in outside or deep throws but also his ability to avoid punishment. Part of his RZ struggles are that he needs to read and deliver that extra beat sooner because he can't quite get balls in tight spots on arm strength alone - he needs to anticipate a beat sooner than a gunslinger with the smaller throwing windows in the RZ. This isn't a fatal flaw by any means - guys who learn their O and who can anticipate while only being average physically can still succeed - Joe Montana is the extreme of this. Andy Dalton might be the best case average Joe example (although he's actually quick for his size). Bob Griese and Fran Tarkenton are historic other examples but they played in an era where they had more time.

I do agree that if Chad Kelly stays out of trouble and matures (no lock) unlike this past year we could see a trade next offseason. Realistically that's only going to happen if Lynch takes a huge step forward. Lynch offers the highest ceiling....and the lowest floor of our top 2. If you had Siemian's mental game and Lynch's physical toolset that's a top 5 overall QB. But it's no lock Lynch gets there mentally (I still have hope but that's not the same as any certainty). Anticipation and accuracy that allow to fit balls in tight windows are probably the 2 toughest skills to acquire. It's just that one is physical and the other is cognitive.
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champ11


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AnAngryAmerican wrote:
Our QB room is really interesting from a personality perspective, that's for sure. Chad Kelly is the guy who beat up Trevor Siemian in high school while Paxton Lynch sat back making wise-cracks and funny faces about it.


I was going to comment on this as well. I've *heard* that the team's issue with Lynch is moreso his general leadership and laid back/goofy attitude than anything else. He's definitely not the ideal ~quarterback personality~ which doesn't bother me, but obviously NFL people don't love that. That's not something that's necessarily easy for a 23 year old to just change overnight and I think it's kinda silly if the kid can play, but it's how the NFL is.
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
germ-x wrote:
^^^ The whole argument that it takes a rocket scientist who has "acumen" to be a QB in the NFL is incredibly overblown as well. For every Tom Brady there is a Brett Favre. For every Jamarcus Russell a Joey Harrington.


I don't think it's overblown really. You don't need to be a rocket scientist, but if you can't pick up more complicates nuances of an NFL-caliber offense, you aren't going to be a successful QB. It's not a league that you can succeed when having overly simplified reads and locking on to one target. The league adjusts quickly.

I don't know if Lynch or Siemian has what it takes, but right now, Siemian has way more in that area to negate, in my mind, any physical disadvantage he may have.


Tom Brady was successful in this league doing just that for years in NE. Even now they run a simplified dunk/dunk offense, though Brady now is one of the best in the league at reading a defense. Cam Newton won an MVP running a simple shotgun zone read offense that took advantage of his strengths. Even Siemian last year was in a simple WCO that only had him read half the field.

Not many players step in year 1 or 2 able to mentally grasp the game. The young QBs that are successful are the ones that are used to play into their strengths and not asked to do things they aren't capable of until they are ready, which can take baby steps for years. A great example of this is Dak Prescott in Dallas. That guy wasn't/isn't anywhere close to running an NFL style offense. The job Jason Garrett did was unbelievable. They turned into a running team and utilized Precotts feet and didn't ask him to do too much. They played to his strengths and didn't try and run the same offense they did with Tony Romo.

Luckily for Denver, Mike McCoy had that capability and did it and won a playoff game with Tim Tebow.
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thebestever6


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PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just dont get the logic ? We give Trevor a pass for having nothing on offense. But we dismiss Lynch for not having the skills because he struggled with a horrible unit around him especially oline?

He faced an elite pass rush unit in Atlanta with Ty Sambrillo protecting him? He faced a Jags defense who had a top 5 secondary in yards per game.

I truly am optimistic about both Trevor Soemian and Paxton lynch. I see this ending well for the Broncos. I think if Chad Kelly gets developed properly one will be gone in a premium trade.
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