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What to make of Adam Thielen going forward?
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
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Location: Canada
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 7:06 pm    Post subject: What to make of Adam Thielen going forward? Reply with quote

Hi all, trying to do some research on Adam Thielen.

Is he the real deal? Will he be the starting X for the foreseeable future? Or is he a good stopgap player that overachieved and will eventually be replaced by a more talented player?

What kind of stat line do you see him putting up next year? (i.e., 50/800/5, 60/900/7, 70/1000/8, etc?)

I'm trying to figure out what happened to him in W15 and W17. Saw his snap rate was 31% in W15 which would help explain the dud, but 97% in W17 yet he posted another dud. Was he injured?
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Klomp


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He may never be a star, but he's reliable enough and works hard enough to stick around a while.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think his stats go down from last year in terms of yardage. Diggs up. Floyd assuming focused is my pick to pick up alot of yardage
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Heimdallr


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see Thielen as a perennial 900-1100 yard, 6-8 TD WR. A great #2 WR, who will be very reliable, but probably never hit the next level to be a true #1 WR that defenses will gameplan around.
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Klomp


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heimdallr wrote:
I see Thielen as a perennial 900-1100 yard, 6-8 TD WR. A great #2 WR, who will be very reliable, but probably never hit the next level to be a true #1 WR that defenses will gameplan around.


When I was thinking of a player comp, Jake Reed was someone who came to mind. Now, his numbers may be on the high end of Thielen's range (from 1994-1997, Reed averaged 74-1,200-6), but I don't think it's far off.
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Freakout


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 1:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
I think his stats go down from last year in terms of yardage. Diggs up. Floyd assuming focused is my pick to pick up alot of yardage


I think we'll see Diggs and Thielen go down. I can see Diggs being in the 800 yard range and Thielen being around 600. Floyd should be a 500 yard receiver if he stays sober and I actually do expect Treadwell to produce some this season as well. Add in Rudolph, Hodges, and Cook.. I expect a much more balanced passing attack.

I see our passing attempts dropping as we look to run the ball more.
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Klomp


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 3:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Freakout wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
I think his stats go down from last year in terms of yardage. Diggs up. Floyd assuming focused is my pick to pick up alot of yardage


I think we'll see Diggs and Thielen go down. I can see Diggs being in the 800 yard range and Thielen being around 600. Floyd should be a 500 yard receiver if he stays sober and I actually do expect Treadwell to produce some this season as well. Add in Rudolph, Hodges, and Cook.. I expect a much more balanced passing attack.

I see our passing attempts dropping as we look to run the ball more.


Your last sentence is the biggest possible change I see happening. If there's a big shift, I think it's because of an improved run game.

As for the individuals?
-Rudolph was plenty involved last year, ending at 83 catches (second on team), 840 yards (third on team) and 7 TDs (first on team). I don't see those numbers improving, for sure, and could easily drop.
-The range you give for Floyd is essentially what Patterson gave us last year (52-453-2).
-Cook will be involved in the passing game, but this was a team that completed 75 passes to RBs for 518 yards in 2016. Again, I don't see the reception totals going up (the yardage might though).
-Treadwell may be more involved this year, but can we realistically predict that it will be much more than the 20-232 that Charles Johnson gave the team in 2016?
-Hodges is a bit of a wild card, but I doubt he'll be a major contributor as a rookie.

So again, if those two drop I think it's more due to an increased focus on an improved running game than it is on any of the other individuals.
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swiss_vike


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thielen is an excellent route runner. He has tremendous hands. Great body control. Not the fastest or quickest. Not a jump ball guy.

Extremely underrated - even by Vikings fans.

His numbers might drop, but I think he remains our most important WR.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As swiss says, Thielen is the best route runner on the team and may be one of the best in the NFL. Therefore, he'll be around for awhile. He is a solid #2 guy, probably never a true #1.

But, I'm not really good at predicting numbers, but I think if the offense as a whole can at least be similar to the '09 Vikings, he could get somewhere in the range of 800-900 yds. There's enough passes to go around for him to get there.
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VikeManDan


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

swiss_vike wrote:
Not the fastest or quickest.


I'll never get this. He ran a 4.45 at the regional combine. Rolling Eyes
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

VikeManDan wrote:
swiss_vike wrote:
Not the fastest or quickest.


I'll never get this. He ran a 4.45 at the regional combine. Rolling Eyes


That would have put him 13th in this year's NFL Combine, so the comment that he's not the fastest or the quickest is accurate. The comment doesn't mean that he's the slowest either. He's right around the middle.
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JDBrocks


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

disaacs wrote:
VikeManDan wrote:
swiss_vike wrote:
Not the fastest or quickest.


I'll never get this. He ran a 4.45 at the regional combine. Rolling Eyes


That would have put him 13th in this year's NFL Combine, so the comment that he's not the fastest or the quickest is accurate. The comment doesn't mean that he's the slowest either. He's right around the middle.


It puts him in the 71st percentile of WRs. That's pretty good company considering his size and route running ability.

Count me as one of the fans that thought he was just a guy and easily replaceable. Glad to have been wrong about him.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swiss_vike wrote:
Thielen is an excellent route runner. He has tremendous hands. Great body control. Not the fastest or quickest. Not a jump ball guy.

Extremely underrated - even by Vikings fans.

His numbers might drop, but I think he remains our most important WR.

Others have already commented on the long speed, so I'll comment on the quickness. His 3cone still time puts him in the top 25% of wide receivers....
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AP_allday2869


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You guys think Thielen is better at routes than Diggs?
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AP_allday2869 wrote:
You guys think Thielen is better at routes than Diggs?


Yes.
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