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There Is No Substantive Difference Btwn Kizer & Wentz
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Mind Character


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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 4:02 am    Post subject: There Is No Substantive Difference Btwn Kizer & Wentz Reply with quote

As an exercise, I wanted to compare the perceived traits, abilities, and measurables of Carson Wentz and DeShone Kizer to see if I felt there was any real difference in them as prospects. Ultimately, the exercise revealed that as prospects, DeShone Kizer and Carson Wentz to me are virtually the same except for one or two glaring differences: 1.) Kizer is much younger (in age) and as a football player and relatedly 2.) Kizer has not to this point shown apex leader qualities that can shift the culture and effort of a team in the face of losing and adversity.

Wentz had a winning pedigree at NDSU although NDSU has been an elite winning program before Carson Wentz. Kizer does have very strong leadership tools/traits (communication ability, etc) but does need a lot of development in that area due to youth and inexperience based immaturity/underdevelopment

In all other areas, Kizer and Wentz are exactly the same, too similar for there to be any real difference, or a slight edge in ability to Kizer or in some cases Wentz.

As an exercise, I compared their respective perceived traits and abilities coming into the NFL and found their similarities to be astounding. Their trajectories in the league as a result will likely be similar as well. This is what I came up with...............


----------------------------


Quick word on Goff pre-draft eval:


I loved Jared Goff because of his elite pocket poise, rush avoidance movement with poise, pocket awareness, plus arm, and quick processing speed. He has no help in LA and will likely get mentally and physically beaten down garnering the "Bust" talk even though such evaluations are short sighted and don't understand that ultimately a QB is only as good as their offensive line, skill players talent, and surrounding environment.


Wentz pre-draft eval:


I liked a lot about Wentz coming out. His understanding of the pro offensive game while having an in depth knowledge of the audible game and at the line adjustments to get the offense out of trouble. He was/is a freakish athlete with a serious cannon. By all accounts then/now, he is a committed worker and invests tons of time in perfecting his craft. He was thought to have strong leadership intangibles. But I did not like other things. Mechanically, as a thrower, Wentz was often a mess. Basic arm mechanics led to some spotty inaccuracy. Footwork and overstridding led to issues of the ball sailing as well. Ball security problems. Most alarming was how he did not handle the rush all that well, missed high even in a clean pocket, was not a regularly pinpoint accurate passer, and seized up like a deer in head lights when inside pressure was beating down on him.

Ultimately, my fear of his accuracy issues, mechanical issues, and what I saw as a deficient pocket poise and rush avoidance movement while preparing to throw made me think that he was a great developmental QB prospect but not an elite one like Goff.

A lot of the issues Wentz had in college...showed their face in the pros (inaccuracy high, mechanical issues, issues with seizing up mentally in the face of the rush); however, his commitment to the game and football savvy proved that he was a gamer and will most likely be a good QB in the league mainly due to the talent the Eagles are putting around him.


-------------------

The Comparison


Let's take a look at Kizer Versus Wentz and their profile, traits, and abilities heading into their respective drafts.


Age: Kizer is 21 old rookie; Wentz is a 24 year old rookie
Size: Kizer is 6ft4, 233 Ibs; Wentz is 6ft5, 237Ibs.
Hands: Kizer 9,7/8; Wentz 10
Athletic Testing: Favors Wentz slightly. Kizer 4.83 40yard dash; Wentz 4.77 yard dash. The exact same vertical jump. Wentz is a quicker lateral and more explosive athlete based on the various other drills such as broad jump (Kizer 107inchs; Wentz 118inchs) and 3-cone drill.

Leadership: Edge to Carson Wentz. Both extremely hard workers on their craft. Both strong communicators. Wentz is a stronger leader in terms of making a winning attitude infectious in college. Wentz struggled his rookie year according to Philly press/insiders with leading behind closed doors. Difficult for a rookie. Wentz has been known to take the reigns and speak up at NDSU. Kizer did that before the Army game according to the o-coordinator but needed to do that more.

Work Ethic
: Toss up with the slight edge to Wentz as rehabbing from injury created additional mental toughness, resilience, and made him attack the mental aspect of the game more.

Knowledge of the game
: Slight edge to Wentz due to being injured and taking on a coaching role in pro style offense of a young QB his last year at NDSU. From an intellectual capacity perspective, Kizer has it all.

Throwing Mechanics: Both struggle with overstridding at times. Wentz has more issues in terms of Arm mechanics and delivery. Wentz has smoother footwork. Kizer has a sturdier base and is more compact in the pocket.

Pinpoint Ball Placement Grade: Edge to Kizer. Based on metrics like On Target Accuracy Percentage, in college Kizer is the more accurate thrower. Based on film study of the majority of their college games, Kizer's inaccuracies most often come from a clean pocket to a stationary target resulting in missed easy throws. Like throwing it in the ground at the feet of a WR on a quick short out. These are basic mechanical issues that are correctable. For Wentz, the issues are consistently missing high on throws due to poor weight transfer and basic flaws in his arm delivery (dropping the ball too low during wind up, etc). These issues are more fundamental to basic throwing ability and are difficult to change. Issues persisted in the league. I'd bet on Carson to fix them. Kizer shows better deep ball pinpoint ball placement at the time of entering the league than Wentz.

Processing Speed
: Slight edge to Kizer as a prospect entering the draft. Wentz did not often have to contend with elite rushers like Kizer did in college; however, Wentz' processing seized up like a deer in headlights repeatedly on college film. Kizer instead sees the right decision starts to wind up and holds on to the ball a few tics too late resulting in a miss timed throw, INT, or inaccuracy. Issue with Kizer is waiting an extra beat due to lack of confidence. However, under pressure when the bullets are flying, Kizer identifies where to go based on his reads quicker and often more correct than Wentz.

Pocket Poise: Edge to Kizer. Kizer is unbothered by the rush when it comes to continuing progression reading. Stands firm with a sturdy back foot to deliver the ball on target. In college, Wentz showed some deficiencies in this area often trying to escape to run instead of escaping to throw; however, he showed stellar improvement in overall pocket poise during his first year at the eagles that did not show itself in his college tape. However, based on their baseline ability, Kizer's 2015 and 2016 tape repeatedly exhibited better overall poise in decision making under duress than Wentz.

Rush Avoidance to Throw
: Slight Edge to Kizer based on college tape; slight edge to Wentz based on pro tape. Kizer has an uncanny ability to keep his feet moving while searching for a new platform to throw from in the pocket with eyes down field as compared to Wentz in college. Wentz was often not challenged to do so however at NDSU as they had a strong offensive line compared to the skill on defense of their opponents.

WOW Throws:
Strong Edge to Kizer. Based on College tape, Kizer has a large amount of throws that simply only the elite few of Rodgers, Big Ben, Brees, Stafford, and Cutler could make. Stanford and USC 2015...UVA game. Syracuse, Army, Stanford, Texas 2016...there are elite throws from within the pocket with elite ball placement in the tightest of windows. Of course, in the games in 2016 there were often inconsistencies. Wentz had many wow throw moments in Montana, SDSU, Iowa St...but not the quality or quantity of Kizer.

Clutch Factor/Late game decision making
: Strong edge to Wentz. Edge to Kizer based on 2015 tape. Major regression on Kizer's behalf in the second half of 2016. Wentz makes some of his best decisions in late game situations in college and repeatedly takes his team down the field to score in tight games. Kizer did so in 2015, but did not make enough plays down the stretch in 2016. Often miscommunications with receivers or poor protections, or holding onto the ball too long in late game situations hurt Kizer in this category.

Progression Reading: Toss up. Both show advanced ability to move through progressions with Wentz doing so quicker at times, but Kizer doing so in a more dynamic manner (i.e., from one side of the field to another based on pre snap knowledge/sense of how the routes would unfold).

At the line adjustments: Edge to Wentz. Wentz had more control of the offense and made adjustments more efficiently and to better results than Kizer on a consistent basis.

Commitment to the Game
: Slight edge to Wentz due to consistency over time. Kizer by all accounts from his coaches is committed but not so much to challenging others. Coaches said that was his next step. Wentz was more of a captain an more mature athlete/leader. A lot can be chalked up to age/immaturity difference between the two but it shouldn't be taken for granted that Wentz is elite in this area no matter what his age.

In most ways, they are very much the same. Leadership ability and late game decision making improvements (although he didn't have htose issues in 2015 as much) by Kizer would especially make the comparison virtually similar. On one hand, we got Kizer for the 52nd pick, on the other hand, we gave up the opportunity to have Wentz to acquire a lot of draft capital to build the franchise. I see them both having similarly impactful careers if they work at their craft. Kizer has a longer way to go as a younger, more immature but gifted/toolsy athlete/leader, but he'll have a chance to get there if he commits to it under David Lee and Hue's mentorship.

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Last edited by Mind Character on Wed May 10, 2017 5:18 pm; edited 2 times in total
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LETSGOBROWNIES


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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I actually read the whole novel so that's a pretty good indication that it was a good post. Well done.
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MWil23


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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 8:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope you're correct, but a few things:

*IMO Wentz the jury is still out on. He didn't have a great 2nd half last year and threw a LOT of passes. We'll see what happens this year. I'm still not convinced that the kid is a legit NFL franchise QB, but maybe I'm stupid since every other NFL GM/talking head/"expert" disagrees with me.

*I would say that Wentz, playing in a pro style offense under center, throwing an NFL passing tree on a regular day in/day out basis, drastically helped him start immediately. That, in and of itself, was the reason why he was able to start Day 1 in the NFL as a rookie.

*Comparable arm strength, size, and games started in college, but Kizer faced better competition and NFL prospects

*Kizer looked worse as the season went last year...IMO that could be irrelevant due to his entire squad looking horrendous and we could have a HUGE STEAL or it could be a seriously negative omen

If he looks legit Day 1, start the kid. If he's raw, sit him behind Kessler and let him learn.

I'm not a Kizer believer, but I REALLY hope that he proves me wrong BIGTIME. I WANT him to succeed, I just don't think that he will.
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freakygeniuskid


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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://waitingfornextyear.com/2017/05/the-character-of-kizer-while-were-waiting/

WFNY did a great job compiling how awful the situation/coaching was for Kizer that last year, how it could absolutely explain his degrading play, and how awesome of a job Kizer did handling it.

Best quote: "The high road is well worn with the soles of Kizerís shoes."
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DizzyDean


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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice comparison on 2 projects. The Eagles were severely burned in that trade. They gave up the world to move up for Wentz, and arguably, Kessler, our round 3 QB, looked every bit as good, if not better than Wentz, with a lesser team around him.

Comparing Wentz to Kizer is not exactly an indicator of future success.
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dawgdish


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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good analysis! I do believe Kizer has just as good of a chance as Wentz to succeed, especially if we continue to put good pieces around him.
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Mind Character


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PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LETSGOBROWNIES wrote:
Well I actually read the whole novel so that's a pretty good indication that it was a good post. Well done.


That means that I'll just have to make the next post even longer so you think it's unbearable to read and complete trash.

MWil23 wrote:
I hope you're correct, but a few things:

*IMO Wentz the jury is still out on. He didn't have a great 2nd half last year and threw a LOT of passes. We'll see what happens this year. I'm still not convinced that the kid is a legit NFL franchise QB, but maybe I'm stupid since every other NFL GM/talking head/"expert" disagrees with me.

*Kizer looked worse as the season went last year...IMO that could be irrelevant due to his entire squad looking horrendous


I agree that the jury is still out on Wentz (I was an all in Goff guy predraft) and some of his college struggles with inaccuracy and mechanically sound throwing showed themselves in the pro game, but he played well in various moments albeit with some expected rookie struggles.

Also, I agree with the fact that Kizer looked worse as the year went on for reasons relevant to his control, but also reasons not within his control. No one talks about how horrible the defense was and how Brian Kelly fired the d-coordinator 4 games into the season. That sowed the seeds of distrust in Kelly's leadership amongst players that backed the coordinator. The defense did not get better and hung Kizer out to dry repeatedly. Now, of course Kizer had his own struggles as well, but that side of the ball struggled a lot.

freakygeniuskid wrote:
http://waitingfornextyear.com/2017/05/the-character-of-kizer-while-were-waiting/

WFNY did a great job compiling how awful the situation/coaching was for Kizer that last year, how it could absolutely explain his degrading play, and how awesome of a job Kizer did handling it.

Best quote: "The high road is well worn with the soles of Kizerís shoes."


This! Thanks for the link fgk.

Wow, I knew Kelly was a jerk, but I did not follow ND closely to see him take no responsibility for the teams struggles that blatantly. Also, putting it on Kizer and the players every time with no culpability on coaching. The difference between that guy and Hue Jackson taking the blame every time so his players take ownership of the team and get behind the coach is astounding.

Some of Kelly's quotes in the articles linked in that article are horrendous. Kizer's public responses to them shows a lot of maturity.

DizzyDean wrote:
Nice comparison on 2 projects. The Eagles were severely burned in that trade. They gave up the world to move up for Wentz, and arguably, Kessler, our round 3 QB, looked every bit as good, if not better than Wentz, with a lesser team around him.

Comparing Wentz to Kizer is not exactly an indicator of future success.


Was not a big Wentz fan; saw him as a great developmental prospect coming out, but he impressed me with a lot of his play in his first year despite his struggles and late season regression.

You're right...the trade looks better and better. But We need Corey Coleman to become a baller, Cody Kessler to become a solid mainstay backup, Kizer to prove he's a competent starter, Njoku to be ball, and the picks next year to have impact before we can claim that we won the trade. Right now, there's a slight trend that suggest we might come out on top, but it's not certain yet. Hope so though.

dawgdish wrote:
Good analysis! I do believe Kizer has just as good of a chance as Wentz to succeed, especially if we continue to put good pieces around him.


Thanks.

Yeah, that's the key....we have surround the QB with talent. I'm hopeful given the competence the FO showed in this draft.
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Mastercheddaar


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PostPosted: Thu May 11, 2017 12:23 pm    Post subject: hmmm Reply with quote

If we sit back and let Kizer learn he could be better. Wentz was going to be Philly's starter. Everyone knew it. If we do the same to Kizer I think it would be a disaster.

that is all

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NudeTayne


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PostPosted: Thu May 11, 2017 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great post. I'm happy with how things have worked out and am optimistic about our quarterback situation moving forward.
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Iamcanadian


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 6:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IMO, Wentz is a way better prospect than Kizer. Kizer stunk it up his last season, playing behind 2 OLmen who will be 1st round selects this season.

In Kizer, I just do not see the mental toughness so necessary for a successful NFL QB and that is why the Combine dropped him down to a round 2 QB. When you start making excuses for failure for a QB, you have to ask yourself, do you get what you see or could he develop and in KIzer, I believe the former is what you get.

Wentz has it all, arm strength and mental toughness, very strong leadership qualities and all the intangibles you could ever want.

I pray Kizer proves me wrong and develops, but I am not holding my breath expecting it.
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buno67


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
IMO, Wentz is a way better prospect than Kizer. Kizer stunk it up his last season, playing behind 2 OLmen who will be 1st round selects this season.


Just because they are future 1st rd picks or show the potential to be future 1st rd poicks, doenst mean they were playing to that level.

tOSU had some future 1st rd picks on the offensive line last year and that OL didnt play all that great.

Iamcanadian wrote:

In Kizer, I just do not see the mental toughness so necessary for a successful NFL QB and that is why the Combine dropped him down to a round 2 QB. When you start making excuses for failure for a QB, you have to ask yourself, do you get what you see or could he develop and in KIzer, I believe the former is what you get.

How does he lack mental toughness? Did you not see what happen last year. He had a head coach who would never take accountability for the team losing or on any of the coaching. He always deflected the issues to his players. Heck even when the media wanted a soundbite of Kizer redirecting the issues back to the coaching, he never did, heck he accepted the blame/faults and told people he had to do better. A lot of the issues with Notre Dame last year wasnt because of poor QB play. There were a lot of issues. No real running game to utilize like the prior year, no big time threat WR like the prior year, Defense was god awful. Kelly never owned up saying he needed to coach better or he needs to better develop/prepare his players. You look at Kizer and you see him taking on accountability of everyones actions and blaming himself. Hell I want to say that there are quotes or sound bites saying its his fault that guys arent playing motivated or with engery and that he says he needs to be in the huddle, speaking with more enthusiasm and bring even more enegry so the guys will feed off of him. The way he handled a disappointed season, the behavior of kelly, and dealing with his gf having cancer/tumor. I think this guy is pretty damn mentally tough. You also look at the '15 season and you see him making some of those clutch throws and drives. He was mentally tough to not crumble during some big games last year and some this year

Iamcanadian wrote:

Wentz has it all, arm strength and mental toughness, very strong leadership qualities and all the intangibles you could ever want.

I pray Kizer proves me wrong and develops, but I am not holding my breath expecting it.

You look at Wentz, he was in a damn comfy situation at NDSU. A situation when the starting QB goes down and the back up QB for the next 7-8 games or something like that is able to come in and lead the team to the title game. NDSU is the best program in 1-A. No matter what, NDSU was going to be the superior player at just about every position. Notre Dame, not so much. Kizer had to go through a lot more adversity at ND.

I think both of them have the arm strength, mental toughness, strong leadership qualities and all the intangibles.

The only edge I really give to Kizer is he has seen more NFL talent when he played in college. Has better collegiate experience because he was at a big time program, facing big time programs.
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ditchdigger


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NudeTayne wrote:
Great post. I'm happy with how things have worked out and am optimistic about our quarterback situation moving forward.


All of This ^^^

And of This vvv

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BleedTheClock


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's basically a flip of a coin for me.

He is so close to being elite, but his mental processing is a step slow...for the college game. Now progressing into the NFL, he will have to improve this tenfold.

I'm not worried about how many wins he had. It's completely irrelevant to his NFL success.
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