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Mind Character


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 7:35 am    Post subject: Browns/Texans Win-Loss Prediction & 2018 Draft Outlook Reply with quote

Cleveland Browns

Prediction: 5 or 6 wins.

2018 Draft Position Range: Pick 12 to pick 6
-----------------------------------

Schedule
Wk 1 vs. PIT ---- Loss. Big Ben, Martavis, JuJu, AB, Leveon, talent infused defense. F the Steelers.

Wk 2 @ BAL --- Loss. Their defense was one of the best in the league according to most metrics as well as Football Outsiders DVOA highly predictive metric. They added Tony Jefferson, Marlon Humphrey, Chris Wormley, Tim Williams, and FA's to bolster their already improved defense. They have no true offensive weapons, but with a strong offensive line, they may put some points on the board depending on Flacco. Will be a fight but they will win both games this year.

Wk 3 @ IND --- Win. Luck Struggles with shoulder issues and despite adding middling FA's at critical positions, the Colts are challenged by a improved browns pass rush and dynamic/mauling run game.

Wk 4 vs. CIN --- Loss. Joe Mixon is rookie of the year and pairs with a resurgent Hill and healthy Tyler Eifert to create an offensive juggernaut that sees AJ Green running free b/c 4.22 40yd dash John Ross is putting pressure on the secondary. Infused talent on defense makes them formidable on that side of the ball as well.

Wk 5 vs. NYJ --- Win. Their defense shows tremendous promise throughout the season but their offense is the worst in the league in 2017 with Josh Mccown and gets even worse when they turn it over to Hackenberg. They have Darnold in their sites

Wk 6 @ HOU --- Win. Texans ranked 2nd to last in the highly predictive DVOA metric for defenses success. Lost AJ Bouye...even with Watt returning at close to 90 percent, their secondary struggles. 2nd to last in OVOA...poor offensive line play and QB play via Tom Savage or a young Deshaun Watson can't get them to score enough points against a surging Browns running game.

Wk 7 vs. TEN --- Loss. Mariota, Henry, Murray, Strong Oline, Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, and a talent upgrade on defense.

Wk 8 vs. MIN --- Loss. Minnesota still has poor Oline play and no offensive weapons besides Dalvin Cook. Defense not improved enough to challenge a strong run game.

Wk 9 BYE

Wk 10 @ DET --- Toss up. Probably a win. Detroit is not consistent on offense and lost to terrible teams last year. They need secondary help and a RB.

Wk 11 vs. JAC --- Loss. Their defense is too strong with the FA signing and Fournette runs wild with Bortles not sucking completely in a few moments to make critical passing plays.

Wk 12 @ CIN -- Loss
. See above.

Wk 13 @ LAC --- Loss. LAC Improved WR, Offensive line. And defense proves too much.

Wk 14 vs. GB --- Loss. Packers had a monster draft and made key FA decisions. Oh and Aaron Rodgers.

Wk 15 vs. BAL -- Loss. See Above

Wk 16 @ CHI -- Win. Our defensive pass rush proves too much for their Offense. Deshone Kizer is balling and their defense has no answer.

Wk 17 @ PIT -- Win. Steelers rest the starters. We're better this year and get the win.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Texans


Prediction: 4 to 7 wins.

2018 Draft Position Range: Pick 18 to pick 6

----------------------------------

Schedule:

Wk 1 vs. JAC ---- Loss.
Watt isn't 100% and JAC's running game changes the dynamic of the whole offense. Bortles plays for his life. The defense is too much for the inept Texans offense

Wk 2 @ Cin --- Loss. Cinncy's offense proves to be too much. Healthy DBs and improved secondary for Cincy locks up Texans burgeoning passing game.

Wk 3 @ NE --- Loss.
Brady, Cooks, and a strengthened defense is too much for almost every team in the league including the Texans.

Wk 4 vs. Ten --- Loss. The Titans are a well-oiled machine on offense and improved secondary from FA and draft shuts down whatever the Texans put up on offense.

Wk 5 vs. KC --- Loss.
Kansas city is too sound and explosive on offense with returning healthy players on defense including a resurgent Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Tamba Hali that disrup the Texans QB leading to the Texans 5 loss to start the season.

Wk 6 @ Cle --- Loss. With Deshaun Watson starting at this point, the Browns pass rush proves to be too much for the young signal caller. The Texans defense succumbs tot the grind of the Browns running game late in the fourth quarter. Close game. Texans lose by 3 points in a 17 to 14 game.

Wk 7 Bye.

Wk 8 @ SEA --- Loss.
Healthy Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellorwith an improved talent pool at CB. Texans continue to struggle on offense. Russell Wilson under duress the entire game via Watt and Clowney, but is able to make a few critical plays on the tired Texans defense that has been stuck on the field all game b/c the offense is not extending drives or scoring.

Wk 9 vs IND -- Win.
Without a strong Luck and with the Colts middling defensive talent the Texans and Deshaun Watson pull out a gritty victory at home.

Wk 10 @ LAR --- Win. The Rams gave Goff no real help besides Cooper Kupp and the offensive line makes Goff look terrible again. Wade Phillips calls a brilliant game holding the Texans to 13 points; however, the Rams can only score 10.

Wk 11 vs. ARZ --- Loss. ARZ dynamic defense with new all everything range playmaker Hasson Reddick and Budda Baker working with a healthy tyronn mathieu give Carson Palmer and Larry Fitz much to smile about as they approach the end of their nfl careers.

Wk 12 @ BAL -- Loss. Baltimore's defense shows itself to be one of the best in the league at this time. Deshaun Watson has a poor game. Flacco and Mike Wallace exploit the weak Texans secondary for two splash plays giving the Baltimore defense some cushion.

Wk 13 @ TEN --- Loss. Titans are clicking on all cylinders and prove to be too dynamic on both sides of the ball.

Wk 14 vs. SF--- Win. Hoyer/Barkley throw too many interception that lead to points for the Texans defense. Watson and Hopkins find their grove and start puttingsome points on the Board. The Texans faithful see signs that Watson is their guy.

Wk 15 @JAC -- Loss.
See Above

Wk 16 @ PIT-- Loss. Steelers offense is too dynamic. The return of Cam Heyward and a bolstered pass rush proves too much for the Texans.

Wk 17 @ IND -- Win. See Above.

-----------------------------------------------------

2018 FA/Draft Outlook


Due to the wins, Browns fear that they won't be able to get one of the top QBs. They liked what they saw out of Kizer toward the end of the season, but decide to sign Jimmy Garropolo in Free Agency making him the 3rd highest paid QB in the league.

Worst Record Teams

1. Rams (1-2 wins)
2. Jets (1-2 wins)
3. 49ers (2-3 wins)
4. Bears (5-6 wins)
5. Detroit (3-4 wins
6. Buffalo (3-4 wins; tough schedule)
7. Vikings (3-5 wins)
8. Colts (3-5 wins)
9. Texans (4-6 wins; tough schedule)
10. Browns (4-6 wins)


Browns Positions of Need
QB, WR, CB, RB, FS, DT


Browns Draft Plan:
Browns miss out on Darnold, Allen, Rosen, and Falk. Browns try to trade up but to no avail b/c teams desperately want to take the QBs. Browns decide to take Derwin James, S FSU and CB Tarvarus Mcfadden, FSU after a trade back accumulating a future 1st round pick and other picks. Browns then trade back up into the bottom of the first round and select Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU who slips in the draft due to questions regarding quality of teams played against and a slower than expected 40yd dash time. With the next two picks in the second round the Browns select Armani Watts S, TAMU with the plan to convert Jabrill Peppers to a full time nickel playmaker; then they select Derrius Guice RB, LSU who falls to the second because of one year of production or they select the best DT available. for their last second round pick.



2018 Draft Selections


1. Derwin James, SS, FSU (Jabrill Peppers moved to full time nickel playmaker)
1. Tarvarus Mcfadden, CB, FSU
1. *Trade back up into the 1st* Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
2. Armani Watts, FS, TAMU
2. Derrius Guice, RB, LSU // Best DT available

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(5/22/17) '18 QB1s: 1. Sam Darnold, 2. Luke Falk, 3. Josh Allen, 4. Josh Rosen, 5. Riley Ferguson, 6. Baker Mayfield / FS1s: 1. Armani Watts, 2. Godwin Igwebuike, 3. Jordan Whitehead / SS1: 1. Derwin James / CB1s: 1.T. McFadden, 2. M. Fitzpatrick


Last edited by Mind Character on Fri May 19, 2017 6:26 am; edited 2 times in total
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MWil23


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 8:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we haven't gotten the QB situation figured out this year, have another horrendous year, and then don't address the QB situation again in 2018, I'm going to explode.

2018 is crap or get off the pot for the QB position. I don't care if it's via trade, free agency, or a 1st round draft pick.

Not addressing the QB position is inexcusable and unacceptable. No excuses. I don't care how many "great" position players are available. If we do this again next year, be prepared for another 5 win season sitting in the same spot again in 2019, only without our FO and HC.
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candyman93


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty sure Mind just detailed the absolute worst case scenario possible for next year.
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buno67


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really dont see the Texans winning 4 games. I see them being between 6-8 range.

To me their defense can carry them. Maybe this is the one year that there defense crumbles from the pressure of carrying the offense but who knows.

I would love to see them only win 4 games
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MSURacerDT55


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really like Sutton, and no way Guice goes 2nd
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MSURacerDT55


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

buno67 wrote:
I really dont see the Texans winning 4 games. I see them being between 6-8 range.

To me their defense can carry them. Maybe this is the one year that there defense crumbles from the pressure of carrying the offense but who knows.

I would love to see them only win 4 games



Agree, as much as I would like 4 games, their defense was top 3 and added Watt back. That with at least average ST and an average offense is good at least 8 wins IMO.
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NateDawg


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Texans are likely a team that hovers around .500. I don't see four wins in the equation, but never know. Even if they have a rookie QB playing, they should get equal or more offensive production and similar defensive, plus the Watt addition. I think the Brirhd pick is top 7 and Texans late teens.
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Marky


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Houston won 9 games last year. They get the best defensive player in the NFL back, and have a QB that is at least competent. How will they win only 4-6?

I do not see them losing to Jacksonville or Tennessee twice. It seems the last couple of years we think Jacksonville is going to breakout, but they never do.

I see them more in the 7-10 range. Probably win the division again, pick in the early to mid twenties.
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nugpimpen


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marky wrote:
Houston won 9 games last year. They get the best defensive player in the NFL back, and have a QB that is at least competent. How will they win only 4-6?

I do not see them losing to Jacksonville or Tennessee twice. It seems the last couple of years we think Jacksonville is going to breakout, but they never do.

I see them more in the 7-10 range. Probably win the division again, pick in the early to mid twenties.


I'm with you
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buno67


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marky wrote:
Houston won 9 games last year. They get the best defensive player in the NFL back, and have a QB that is at least competent. How will they win only 4-6?

I do not see them losing to Jacksonville or Tennessee twice. It seems the last couple of years we think Jacksonville is going to breakout, but they never do.

I see them more in the 7-10 range. Probably win the division again, pick in the early to mid twenties.


They have a competent QB?

The Texans have started more QBs in the last three years than the Browns have. Let that sink in. Texans cant find a QB. They have had nothing but crap at QB. I dont think Watson is the difference. Unless they try to use him like Clemson used him.

The first 6 weeks will tell us who the Texans are. Yeah they open with the Jags but than have Cincy, Pats, Titans, KC, and Browns. They then finish the last 10 weeks on the road 6x. If they have a rough start. I think they can go 2-4. Beating the Jags and the Browns but both Jags and Browns are better team. Also it be L.F. first game and the texans having no true game tape on him. He could go off. If the Texans are under .500 in the first 6 game I think they finish under .500 for the season. If they go above .500 in those 6 games, I see them going above .500.
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sdrawkcab321


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If kizer starts game 1 we will make the playoffs.

Texans will go .500

Watson is garbage. Inaccurate skinny running Qbs who can't throw can't win.
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buno67


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sdrawkcab321 wrote:
If kizer starts game 1 we will make the playoffs.

Texans will go .500

Watson is garbage. Inaccurate skinny running Qbs who can't throw can't win.


yeah as a team last year Texans threw 16 INTs. Watson might do that by himself this season
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Marky


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

buno67 wrote:
Marky wrote:
Houston won 9 games last year. They get the best defensive player in the NFL back, and have a QB that is at least competent. How will they win only 4-6?

I do not see them losing to Jacksonville or Tennessee twice. It seems the last couple of years we think Jacksonville is going to breakout, but they never do.

I see them more in the 7-10 range. Probably win the division again, pick in the early to mid twenties.


They have a competent QB?

The Texans have started more QBs in the last three years than the Browns have. Let that sink in. Texans cant find a QB. They have had nothing but crap at QB. I dont think Watson is the difference. Unless they try to use him like Clemson used him.

The first 6 weeks will tell us who the Texans are. Yeah they open with the Jags but than have Cincy, Pats, Titans, KC, and Browns. They then finish the last 10 weeks on the road 6x. If they have a rough start. I think they can go 2-4. Beating the Jags and the Browns but both Jags and Browns are better team. Also it be L.F. first game and the texans having no true game tape on him. He could go off. If the Texans are under .500 in the first 6 game I think they finish under .500 for the season. If they go above .500 in those 6 games, I see them going above .500.


I don't like Watson at all, but I felt Houston was the best fit for him. They have a strong defense and a good running game. He will be a game manager, and have him do just enough to win.

He is competent when you compare him to Brock, Savage, Weeden, Yates... I would rather have Watson than any of those guys.

I think everyone is really underestimating their defense. Fewest yards allowed, 2nd against the pass, 12th against the run, and 11th in points a game. Oh, and now they get their best player, arguably the best defensive player in the game back.

Plus, they added Zach Cunningham, who could of went in the first and fell to the 2nd, plus Carlos Watkins in the 4th, who could be a steal there.

Remember when we thought Philadelphia was going to be one of the worst teams in the league?
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freakygeniuskid


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Note on Houston:

Justis Mosqueda is a poster here on FF who is also a numbers driven football writer (he's the "force players" guy).

He teased on Twitter the other day that he's found an interesting statistical correlation over the last 10 years where there have been 27 teams that have had a combo of #s either predicting improvement or regression from the previous year. Of those 27, it has predicted 25 correctly, one stayed the same rather than improving/regressing, and one it got wrong.

Houston this year fits those criteria for a regression team. Now, Watt coming back might be enough to swing that, but just food for thought.

Oh, and does anybody know, in games won by a TD or more, how many more wins than us the Texans had?

One, they had one win all year by a TD or more. And while Watson/Savage MIGHT be better than Brocky O this year, as our resident Watson hater, it's also possible that their QB position remains a flaming dumpster fire.

I'll take Houston at 7-9, giving us about the 15th pick with my bet.
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Mind Character


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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

freakygeniuskid wrote:
Note on Houston:

Justis Mosqueda is a poster here on FF who is also a numbers driven football writer (he's the "force players" guy).

He teased on Twitter the other day that he's found an interesting statistical correlation over the last 10 years where there have been 27 teams that have had a combo of #s either predicting improvement or regression from the previous year. Of those 27, it has predicted 25 correctly, one stayed the same rather than improving/regressing, and one it got wrong.

Houston this year fits those criteria for a regression team. Now, Watt coming back might be enough to swing that, but just food for thought.

Oh, and does anybody know, in games won by a TD or more, how many more wins than us the Texans had?

One, they had one win all year by a TD or more. And while Watson/Savage MIGHT be better than Brocky O this year, as our resident Watson hater, it's also possible that their QB position remains a flaming dumpster fire.

I'll take Houston at 7-9, giving us about the 15th pick with my bet.


They could very well win 7 or even 8 games. Facts...

But they play a brutal schedule.

And for an interesting article involving a similar regression model see:

http://torotimes.com/2017/04/11/houston-texans-projected-to-finish-last-by-football-outsiders/

I think clicking on the football outsiders full article through this link can get ppl past the pay wall. If not, let me know.

By using the metric DVOA, in the regression model....one can add Watt's productive impact and see where it gets them. They predict 6 wins. I predict 4-6 wins.

"THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION:

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
THE SHORT VERSION:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.

Please feel free to contact us with questions and comments about our original statistics"

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/1987-dvoa-ratings-and-commentary
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