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How long will Trubisky and Mahomes sit?
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stl4life07


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Best case scenario for Trubisky is to sit for the entire season then work for the starting job next season. The Bucs are paying Glennon a ton of money for this season so he should be starting. After this season the Bucs could technically cut/trade Glennon because I can't see Glennon being a backup to Trubisky based on his reaction to the Bears drafting him. Worst case scenario would be Trubisky starting at some point this season. He needs to learn and it wouldn't be wise to just throw him out there with just 13 college starts.

Best case scenario for Mahomes is to sit the entire season and then start next season. The Chiefs traded up to get Mahomes because they believe he can get them further in the future than Alex Smith is right now. The Chiefs hope the future can start sooner rather than later. Worst case scenario is it takes Mahomes awhile to get the reigns at QB and Smith stays the starter for two seasons thus Mahomes will be sitting for two seasons. If that happens the fans/media could start to look at the decision to trade up a mistake the longer the Chiefs let Mahomes sit, especially if the Chiefs season continue to end the same way and that's make the playoffs then lose in their first playoff game. The Mahomes era won't come soon enough for those who will be tired of Smith not getting the Chiefs further.
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onejayhawk


Joined: 14 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2017 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stl4life07 wrote:
Best case scenario for Mahomes is to sit the entire season and then start next season. The Chiefs traded up to get Mahomes because they believe he can get them further in the future than Alex Smith is right now. The Chiefs hope the future can start sooner rather than later. Worst case scenario is it takes Mahomes awhile to get the reigns at QB and Smith stays the starter for two seasons thus Mahomes will be sitting for two seasons. If that happens the fans/media could start to look at the decision to trade up a mistake the longer the Chiefs let Mahomes sit, especially if the Chiefs season continue to end the same way and that's make the playoffs then lose in their first playoff game. The Mahomes era won't come soon enough for those who will be tired of Smith not getting the Chiefs further.

I disagree with much of this. Mahomes is not so much better as younger. He needs a full year, at least, to redo all his mechanics. The similarity to Aaron Rodgers has been noted. Bret Favre's last two years in GB were no more likely to bring a SB than Alex Smith is in KC, but it was still Favre's team. They will get what they get, knowing things will be different soon.

2018 could be a major camp war to decide which style will take precedence, Smith's or Mahome's. In 2019 Smith will likely be gone.

J
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stl4life07


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2017 6:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

onejayhawk wrote:
stl4life07 wrote:
Best case scenario for Mahomes is to sit the entire season and then start next season. The Chiefs traded up to get Mahomes because they believe he can get them further in the future than Alex Smith is right now. The Chiefs hope the future can start sooner rather than later. Worst case scenario is it takes Mahomes awhile to get the reigns at QB and Smith stays the starter for two seasons thus Mahomes will be sitting for two seasons. If that happens the fans/media could start to look at the decision to trade up a mistake the longer the Chiefs let Mahomes sit, especially if the Chiefs season continue to end the same way and that's make the playoffs then lose in their first playoff game. The Mahomes era won't come soon enough for those who will be tired of Smith not getting the Chiefs further.

I disagree with much of this. Mahomes is not so much better as younger. He needs a full year, at least, to redo all his mechanics. The similarity to Aaron Rodgers has been noted. Bret Favre's last two years in GB were no more likely to bring a SB than Alex Smith is in KC, but it was still Favre's team. They will get what they get, knowing things will be different soon.

2018 could be a major camp war to decide which style will take precedence, Smith's or Mahome's. In 2019 Smith will likely be gone.

J


If Mahomes sit for two seasons and Smith continues to not get any further than losing in the Chiefs first playoff game then many folks are gonna wonder why the Mahomes era hasn't began yet. Yes I agree Mahomes needs some refining of his techniques but the Chiefs traded up and gave away valuable picks to get him. He has to start sooner as a result but within reason. The Packers didn't have to trade up to get Rodgers he fell to them. The pressure wasn't really on them to him right away.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2017 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stl4life07 wrote:
onejayhawk wrote:
stl4life07 wrote:
Best case scenario for Mahomes is to sit the entire season and then start next season. The Chiefs traded up to get Mahomes because they believe he can get them further in the future than Alex Smith is right now. The Chiefs hope the future can start sooner rather than later. Worst case scenario is it takes Mahomes awhile to get the reigns at QB and Smith stays the starter for two seasons thus Mahomes will be sitting for two seasons. If that happens the fans/media could start to look at the decision to trade up a mistake the longer the Chiefs let Mahomes sit, especially if the Chiefs season continue to end the same way and that's make the playoffs then lose in their first playoff game. The Mahomes era won't come soon enough for those who will be tired of Smith not getting the Chiefs further.

I disagree with much of this. Mahomes is not so much better as younger. He needs a full year, at least, to redo all his mechanics. The similarity to Aaron Rodgers has been noted. Bret Favre's last two years in GB were no more likely to bring a SB than Alex Smith is in KC, but it was still Favre's team. They will get what they get, knowing things will be different soon.

2018 could be a major camp war to decide which style will take precedence, Smith's or Mahome's. In 2019 Smith will likely be gone.

J


If Mahomes sit for two seasons and Smith continues to not get any further than losing in the Chiefs first playoff game then many folks are gonna wonder why the Mahomes era hasn't began yet. Yes I agree Mahomes needs some refining of his techniques but the Chiefs traded up and gave away valuable picks to get him. He has to start sooner as a result but within reason. The Packers didn't have to trade up to get Rodgers he fell to them. The pressure wasn't really on them to him right away.


I think Dorsey understands the learning curve for rookie QB's nowadays is at least a year if you aren't at the Winston/Mariota/Luck level of skill, and even then, you can argue all those guys learned a lot Year 1. This move is all about 2018+.

Thing is, I think Dorsey also had to make this move because of Smith's expiring contract, but also as the only way to keep KC competitive for 2018-19. Here's KC's 2018 cap situation:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/cap/2018/

They are 20M+ over the cap next year. They have to find 20M just to get under the max allowed. They are not getting any 2017 rollover (or very little) - they have 1.8M to spare right now plus whatever Jaye Howard signs, up to 2.5M more - let's call it 4.3M, assuming he signed for at least that much. Most if not all of that 4.3M will go to the rookie cap (first 2 round picks will cost 3.6M, so let's call that a 2.6M hit, given they take the place of 500K scrubs). At best they save maybe 1-2M more. They're still 18M over the cap.

Now, they can release Jeremy Maclin and save 9M. They can cut Derrick Johnson and save 8M. They can cut Tamba Hali and save 7M. So they can get to around even....but at even, they then have roster holes, and no $ to spend in FA. And yes, there's always the restructure for Justin Houston & Eric Fisher for a total of 12M more if they really don't want to cut their roster depth - but it just pushes the problem back to 2019, when they will have 3 young UFA's they need to extend (Morse, Schwartz & most importantly Dee Ford). Plus, they will lose Bennie Logan as a key cog to their run D this year, or have to re-sign him, and the top 3-4 NT pay scale just went up (8-10M for the top FA's, crazy). KC doesn't have a clear way out of cap hell...unless they can clear a lot of space without hurting their roster. The only position where that possibility exists right now is QB for 2018 - no clear replacement exists for any of the above guys mentioned, and if the Chiefs go out and get one in FA..well, that costs $.

KC is dead last in cap space. 32nd out 32 teams. Even behind the Cowboys, who are well-versed in cap hell. And as they traded away next year's 1st, one their cheapest ways to replace talent for any of the above guys won't be there. When you look at the $ situation, if Mahomes is even close to ready, the $ situation will push for Smith to part ways. The other part of the equation - if Smith leaves and gets a high $ contract, likely KC will not match with a high-priced signing. That will likely net KC the highest comp pick possible (late 3rd). That's also possible if Smith leaves after 2019 - but his likelihood of landing a big $ deal goes down with each year.

If Mahomes isn't ready, then KC goes back to Smith for 2018. They have that option. But the $ realities really are going to push for KC to go with Mahomes even if Mahomes just looks like he might be ready, the burden to be certain will be outweighed by the potential to get out of cap hell for 2018-19.
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This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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REDandPEWTER


Joined: 31 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Both are sitting a year atleast. Both come from spread offenses. Mahomes is the only one of the two that made line calls and adjustments. But both teams set up situations to have the qb of the future by establishing a veteran so they can take the time to hone their skills and adjust to the pro style offense.

Mahomes has a much better upside in my opinion. I had no first round grade on any of these qbs but 3 went.

I still think getting Kizer in round 2 was better value than the teams that reached in the top 12.
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Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
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Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stl4life07 wrote:
Best case scenario for Trubisky is to sit for the entire season then work for the starting job next season. The Bucs are paying Glennon a ton of money for this season so he should be starting. After this season the Bucs could technically cut/trade Glennon because I can't see Glennon being a backup to Trubisky based on his reaction to the Bears drafting him. Worst case scenario would be Trubisky starting at some point this season. He needs to learn and it wouldn't be wise to just throw him out there with just 13 college starts.

Quote:

It will all come down to how bad the Bears are this year. GM's like to keep their jobs and fans will not sit still much longer than 7 or 8 games before they start howling for the GM's head, if he leaves Trubisky sitting on the bench. If Trubisky is still sitting after 7 or 8 games and the Bears are losing badly, you will know Trubisky is likely as total flop. I can see no way he gets to sit a year.


Best case scenario for Mahomes is to sit the entire season and then start next season. The Chiefs traded up to get Mahomes because they believe he can get them further in the future than Alex Smith is right now. The Chiefs hope the future can start sooner rather than later. Worst case scenario is it takes Mahomes awhile to get the reigns at QB and Smith stays the starter for two seasons thus Mahomes will be sitting for two seasons. If that happens the fans/media could start to look at the decision to trade up a mistake the longer the Chiefs let Mahomes sit, especially if the Chiefs season continue to end the same way and that's make the playoffs then lose in their first playoff game. The Mahomes era won't come soon enough for those who will be tired of Smith not getting the Chiefs further.


There is a far better chance that Mahomes gets to sit a year, after all Alex Smith isn't a bum and therefore the Chiefs are likely to be a winning franchise, which will give their GM time to decide best, when to use him. However, should KC struggle next year, then all bets are off.
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onejayhawk


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't want to quote broncofan at length, but that's the straight poop. This year the rookie rotools his whole game, while all the veterans pull together for one big push.

Next year the roster looks very different. FA signees will mostly be gone. Senior players will retire or move on. 80% of the roster will be new since 2015. Whether that is a rebuild or a reload remains to be seen.

J
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Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 5:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

onejayhawk wrote:
I don't want to quote broncofan at length, but that's the straight poop. This year the rookie rotools his whole game, while all the veterans pull together for one big push.

That is exactly what I expect to happen, but plans can change, injuries could take out Smith or the Chiefs simply have a bad season. Nothing is fixed in the NFL.

Next year the roster looks very different. FA signees will mostly be gone. Senior players will retire or move on. 80% of the roster will be new since 2015. Whether that is a rebuild or a reload remains to be seen.

J


Actually, I do not think KC is interested in a rebuild next season. Andy Reid is at the end of his career, he won't be interested in going through a rebuild. He's looking to win now which could possibly cause him to rush Mahomes if he thinks Smith cannot get him to a SB.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 7:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
onejayhawk wrote:
I don't want to quote broncofan at length, but that's the straight poop. This year the rookie rotools his whole game, while all the veterans pull together for one big push.

That is exactly what I expect to happen, but plans can change, injuries could take out Smith or the Chiefs simply have a bad season. Nothing is fixed in the NFL.

Next year the roster looks very different. FA signees will mostly be gone. Senior players will retire or move on. 80% of the roster will be new since 2015. Whether that is a rebuild or a reload remains to be seen.

J


Actually, I do not think KC is interested in a rebuild next season. Andy Reid is at the end of his career, he won't be interested in going through a rebuild. He's looking to win now which could possibly cause him to rush Mahomes if he thinks Smith cannot get him to a SB.


FWIW while the cap situation is dire the point of my post is that if Reid wants to continue to contend the only way KC can keep their roster at contender levels is to clear cap space. The only way they do that without losing talent across the board is letting Mahomes take over for Smith in 2018. Otherwise they lose talent at positions they don't have a replacement ready to step in for it depends on Mahomes being ready but if he's even close to ready I think we see KC make the transition. If Mahome's truly not ready then Reid & co. have to keep Smith - but then it likely leads to roster holes elsewhere. Going Mahomes if he's even close to ready likely allows KC to get out of cap hell the easiest for 2018 - any solution that keeps Smith only pushes cap hell further down the road to 2019.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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onejayhawk


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe. I think the rebuild push will be for 2019. They are carrying several of long time starters at his point. We saw in SF how fast that can fall apart, but they have one year left. 2018 will be about retooling the roster.

Using the 2018 year of Smith's contract could soften some of the impact of a transition. That said, in the world of hopes and planning, Mahomes beats Smith out in camp next year. Smith has trade value. He's the ideal backup.

J
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glennon should suck his way out of the starting job by mid season.

Mahomes just does garbage time and then wins the job in 2018. I think he landed in a great situation and I can see him (now) being successful under Reid's eye.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

onejayhawk wrote:
Maybe. I think the rebuild push will be for 2019. They are carrying several of long time starters at his point. We saw in SF how fast that can fall apart, but they have one year left. 2018 will be about retooling the roster.

Using the 2018 year of Smith's contract could soften some of the impact of a transition. That said, in the world of hopes and planning, Mahomes beats Smith out in camp next year. Smith has trade value. He's the ideal backup.

J


You don't even need to trade to get value if Mahomes is ready. Smith leaves, and then he signs even a modest QB contract - 4/72M, let's say. That likely nets KC a comp 3rd pick in 2019. And because KC is tight against the cap, they aren't going to spend huge $ in FA - so they won't have any gained big $ FA contracts.

Given how the 2018 QB class is being viewed, and JimmyG/Cousins/Glennon potentially all hitting the FA market as well (some of them won't, but not all of them will get retained IMO), I don't think you can count on a better result next year (I mean, no one bit on Romo or Cutler, in a weak QB draft class, or JimmyG, because the price for the FA or trade targets was too high than the buyers were willing to pay) - but that scenario above is still fantastic, provided Mahomes is close to ready. Think about it - you don't lose much if anything short-term if he's ready, and long-term you get out of cap hell...and you get a comp pick out of this.

If you wait until 2019, you get more cap hell for 2018, and you also increase the chances Smith doesn't land a big $ - the older he gets, the risk becomes greater. I get keeping Smith if Mahomes shows he's nowhere close, but if he's even close to ready for 2018...well you get the idea.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To double back on KC's cap situation - Jaye Howard contract calls for 775K, vet min, with CHI, and it's not guaranteed. KC cleared a little more space before last time I looked, so they are 2.45M - this gets them to 3.3M+. That's enough to get them above their rookie cap #'s, but leaves them pretty much zero 2018 rollover. So likely they enter 2018 20M+ over the cap. As in, 20M needs to be cut just to get under the minimum, forget about draft rookies, other FA's, etc. So the incentive to release Smith and save 17M will be that much greater now.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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Crickett


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteelKing728 wrote:
Glennon should suck his way out of the starting job by mid season.

Mahomes just does garbage time and then wins the job in 2018. I think he landed in a great situation and I can see him (now) being successful under Reid's eye.


So while I expect this to happen too, here's a hypothetical: What if he doesn't?

What if Glennon has a Drew Brees-circa-2004 like resurgence and establishes himself as a legit franchise QB? He's on a three year deal. Do the Bears keep Trubisky for that entire time and start him year four? Do they deal one of them? Next year is supposed to be a strong QB draft will probably also be a fairly strong QB free agency so that may rather difficult. On the other hand, they could deal Glennon, but at the same time, without the kind of financial obligations NFL used to have for top five rookies, that wouldn't really be warranted.
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Iamcanadian


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crickett wrote:
SteelKing728 wrote:
Glennon should suck his way out of the starting job by mid season.

Mahomes just does garbage time and then wins the job in 2018. I think he landed in a great situation and I can see him (now) being successful under Reid's eye.


So while I expect this to happen too, here's a hypothetical: What if he doesn't?

What if Glennon has a Drew Brees-circa-2004 like resurgence and establishes himself as a legit franchise QB? He's on a three year deal. Do the Bears keep Trubisky for that entire time and start him year four? Do they deal one of them? Next year is supposed to be a strong QB draft will probably also be a fairly strong QB free agency so that may rather difficult. On the other hand, they could deal Glennon, but at the same time, without the kind of financial obligations NFL used to have for top five rookies, that wouldn't really be warranted.


I believe I read somewhere that Glennon's money is only guaranteed for 1 season, he is strictly a stopgap measure. The likelihood of him becoming a franchise QB, I would put at about 1%, it just is not going to happen.

I fully expect Trubisky to start by game 8 and if he doesn't then those who hated the trade, will likely have been proven right, that he is not talented enough to become a franchise QB.
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