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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chewtoy wrote:
gah112 wrote:
Chewtoy wrote:
There is literally three examples (Wilson, Flacco, Brady championship #1) of teams building a defense and then winning a championship with a qb on a rookie deal in recent memory. EVERYONE else in contention paid a qb their 2nd deal first. What you are advocating for is to make an outlier into a blueprint. Qb 2nd is what you do as a recovery plan if your qb doesn't pan out or gets injured.


Only if you ignore Roethlisberger's 1st SB and Eli Manning's 1st SB. That's 4 of the last 10 champions. It's hardly an outlier.

The point is not about rookie contracts. It's about the portion of your resources you devote to keeping a prime QB. The Patriots have won several Super Bowls with Brady because he agreed to a cheap contract which allows them to spend on other players. Aaron Rodgers was not highly paid until 2013. He hasn't come close to winning a Super Bowl since being given that massive contract extension.


The point sort of is about rookie contracts. The argument I was having was that you need the Qb first, and that you should then build the team after. Teams that win with Qb's on their 2nd or 3rd NFL deal do not fit the description of a "great team who drafted a Qb and then won." The Qb they won with is already 4-5 years into their NFL career. Given that rosters turn over ~25% every year, 4-5 years in the roster is almost entirely different than the one they were drafted to.

Look, I get what you are saying. having any one player taking up a huge chunk of resources is a handicap in that it makes it harder to fill other holes. And if the player who you chose to invest in (cutler, flacco, etc) isn't capable of elevating the team, it IS a handicap. That said, almost nobody wins superbowls with rookie deal Qb's. Almost universally the true contenders are teams with established Qb's on their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th deal. It is a huge advantage if you can pull it off the other way (get a rookie Qb ready to win a superbowl) but those players are prohibitively rare (10-15 Qb's drafted per year, and only 3 - Wilson, Brady, and Flacco - were drafted into established teams AND lead that team to a superbowl championship. We are talking about 3/200+ Qb's.)

It can be done that way. 1.5% success rate isn't zero. But most teams (including the giants and steelers in your example with eli and ben) took a Qb high (basically #1 overall in eli's case) while they were a bad team as the first step in a rebuild.

Meanwhile, this is the COMPLETE list of DE's and S's drafted in the top 3 since 1989:

Myles Garrett
Jadeveon Clowney
Mario Williams
Courtney Brown
Chris Long
Julius Peppers
Solomon Thomas
Joey Bosa
Dion Jordan
Tyson Jackson
Andre Wadsworth
Simeon Rice
Eric Turner
Shawn Springs
Bruce Pickens

Some good players, sure. And a lot of busts. And not a lot of superbowls in this list. Chris Long won one on his second team, and Simeon Rice won one.

Regardless of how you feel about drafting a Qb in the top 3, drafting defense up there seems to be far less successful.....
No real need to include Safety since one has never been drafted that high.
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

By comparison QBs drafted top 3 since 1989

Troy Aikman - 3 Superbowl wins
Jeff George
Drew Bledsoe - Techincally has 1 Superbowl win, also lost a Superbowl
Rick Mirer
Heath Shuler
Steve McNair - Lost Superbowl
Peyton Manning - Won 2, Lost 2
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb - Lost Superbowl
Akili Smith
Mike Vick - Lost NFCCG
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Carson Palmer - Lost NFCCG
Eli Manning - Won 2
Alex Smith - Lost NFCCG
Vince Young
Jamarcus Russell
Matt Ryan - Lost Superbowl
Matt Stafford
Sam Bradford
Cam Newton - Lost Superbowl
Andrew Luck - Lost AFCCG
Robert Griffin III
Blake Bortles
Jamies Winston
Marcus Mariota
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz

Yeah there are some busts there, no doubt, and if you missed it really set you back before the rookie wage scale, but now if you miss, it's really no worse than any other 1st round miss, and the fact is of the 30 QBs selected in the top 3 since 1989 (modern draft era) 16 have at least made it to the playoffs, 11 a CCG, 8 a Superbowl, and 3 have a combined 7 SuperBowl wins. That's a yo folks.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What the Bears did in the draft is pretty standard, even if some are upset that they largely ignored the defense.

Teams that invest high picks in QBs always follow it with investments around them and not in the defense.

Jamies Winston

-2nd round OT
-2nd rouind OG
-5th round WR
-6th round WR

1 Defensive Draft Pick

Marcus Mariota

-2nd round WR
-3rd round OG
-4th round FB
-5th round RB
-6th round C
-7th round WR

1 Defensive Draft Pick

Jared Goff

-4th TE
-4th WR
-6th WR
-6th TE

1 Defensive Draft Pick

Carson Wentz

-3rd round OG
-5th round RB
-5th round OT

4 defensive picks [1 6th, 3 7ths]


The fact that the Bears went almost all offense makes sense, considering their defense is better than most of the teams listed outside of LA.
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G08


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It makes sense... Trubisky and Shaheen, at minimum, need a year of seasoning. You can argue Cohen as well.

Then in 2018 Pace ostensibly could have his Brees/Graham/Sproles.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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Chewtoy


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Superman(DH23) wrote:
By comparison QBs drafted top 3 since 1989

Troy Aikman - 3 Superbowl wins
Jeff George
Drew Bledsoe - Techincally has 1 Superbowl win, also lost a Superbowl
Rick Mirer
Heath Shuler
Steve McNair - Lost Superbowl
Peyton Manning - Won 2, Lost 2
Ryan Leaf
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb - Lost Superbowl
Akili Smith
Mike Vick - Lost NFCCG
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Carson Palmer - Lost NFCCG
Eli Manning - Won 2
Alex Smith - Lost NFCCG
Vince Young
Jamarcus Russell
Matt Ryan - Lost Superbowl
Matt Stafford
Sam Bradford
Cam Newton - Lost Superbowl
Andrew Luck - Lost AFCCG
Robert Griffin III
Blake Bortles
Jamies Winston
Marcus Mariota
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz

Yeah there are some busts there, no doubt, and if you missed it really set you back before the rookie wage scale, but now if you miss, it's really no worse than any other 1st round miss, and the fact is of the 30 QBs selected in the top 3 since 1989 (modern draft era) 16 have at least made it to the playoffs, 11 a CCG, 8 a Superbowl, and 3 have a combined 7 SuperBowl wins. That's a yo folks.


And fully 1/3rd of them are still active. Heck, 1/6th of them are still early career types. Qb's are winning the comparison going away so far, and they still have 5X the remaining entrants still compiling results.
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Bearsfancro


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im pretty happy with the draft.

Yeah, Trubisky was not my "ideal" type of QB, but at least, it gives some hope for the future.

Now the Bears have 2 young QB's, to battle out for the future. If Glennon plays ok, meaning, Bears are winning 8+ games, it will be fun next season, who the starter is. If he is playing mehh, well, all eyez are on Mitchell.

I really like the addition of the other 4 players in the draft. This nucleous is here to stay, and if they all "hit", the Bears will be fun team to watch.
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G08


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bearsfancro wrote:
Im pretty happy with the draft.

Yeah, Trubisky was not my "ideal" type of QB, but at least, it gives some hope for the future.

Now the Bears have 2 young QB's, to battle out for the future. If Glennon plays ok, meaning, Bears are winning 8+ games, it will be fun next season, who the starter is. If he is playing mehh, well, all eyez are on Mitchell.

I really like the addition of the other 4 players in the draft. This nucleous is here to stay, and if they all "hit", the Bears will be fun team to watch.


From a skill-set perspective, Trubisky was probably the closest thing to Derek Carr / Aaron Rodgers in this draft.

Mahomes has the best arm, but he's much thicker and not nearly as accurate. Watson has the winning pedigree, but he's not nearly as accurate.

If (HUGE if) we can develop his mind correctly, he should be a good one.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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mikee


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
It makes sense... Trubisky and Shaheen, at minimum, need a year of seasoning. You can argue Cohen as well.

Then in 2018 Pace ostensibly could have his Brees/Graham/Sproles.


I disagree that Shaheen and Cohen will need a year, especially a year at minimum. I expect Shaheen and Cohen to be contributing by the midpoint of the season and wouldn't be shocked if both are suiting up for game 1. Shaheen will be an immediate red zone threat and given Miller's injury history it is likely only a matter of time before Shaheen is thrust into a larger role. Unless Cunningham grabs the 3rd down back job by the horns and makes plays right out of the gate Cohen will also get a chance right away. Neither Carey or Langford have done anything to warrant additional time devoted to them and neither make plays, which has been a priority for the team this offseason. Cohen will get a shot.
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G08


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mikee wrote:
G08 wrote:
It makes sense... Trubisky and Shaheen, at minimum, need a year of seasoning. You can argue Cohen as well.

Then in 2018 Pace ostensibly could have his Brees/Graham/Sproles.


I disagree that Shaheen and Cohen will need a year, especially a year at minimum. I expect Shaheen and Cohen to be contributing by the midpoint of the season and wouldn't be shocked if both are suiting up for game 1. Shaheen will be an immediate red zone threat and given Miller's injury history it is likely only a matter of time before Shaheen is thrust into a larger role. Unless Cunningham grabs the 3rd down back job by the horns and makes plays right out of the gate Cohen will also get a chance right away. Neither Carey or Langford have done anything to warrant additional time devoted to them and neither make plays, which has been a priority for the team this offseason. Cohen will get a shot.


I hope you're right. In envision Shaheen as a true Y TE, someone that you can attach to the offensive line and he will just as well block for you as he will get out and run routes. I don't think he's ready for that right now.

Cohen really needs to focus on blocking, otherwise you pretty much know he's getting the ball on 3rd down if he's on the field (anyone really trust him to take on Clay Matthews screaming off the edge? I sure don't).
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
Bearsfancro wrote:
Im pretty happy with the draft.

Yeah, Trubisky was not my "ideal" type of QB, but at least, it gives some hope for the future.

Now the Bears have 2 young QB's, to battle out for the future. If Glennon plays ok, meaning, Bears are winning 8+ games, it will be fun next season, who the starter is. If he is playing mehh, well, all eyez are on Mitchell.

I really like the addition of the other 4 players in the draft. This nucleous is here to stay, and if they all "hit", the Bears will be fun team to watch.


From a skill-set perspective, Trubisky was probably the closest thing to Derek Carr / Aaron Rodgers in this draft.

Mahomes has the best arm, but he's much thicker and not nearly as accurate. Watson has the winning pedigree, but he's not nearly as accurate.

If (HUGE if) we can develop his mind correctly, he should be a good one.




"Much thicker?"
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote



Trubisky looks like a universal soldier
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G08


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eh, arguing semantics here.

Mitch is a rocked up kid for sure, I just think this dude is thicker:





Rodgers/Carr don't have that kind of build.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:


Trubisky looks like a universal soldier
Why you putting up pics of me? Dont you know its against site rules Laughing
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dll2000


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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

QB is interesting since its so hard to predict. Bold within the quote is my writing. Not counting Vick that is 12 of 25 Busts (as I deem them - I think Vick is a bust too or at least was for Falcons - but I didn't count him as such) or a 48% bust rate. Round it to 50%.

Nearly half the time from Aikman to Griffin the top 3 QB pick is a Bust. Like Superman pointed out though at least those top 3 guys aren't getting paid like franchise players anymore so 2nd half of the list misses aren't nearly as devastating.

Superman(DH23) wrote:
By comparison QBs drafted top 3 since 1989

Troy Aikman - 3 Superbowl wins -
Jeff George - BUST
Drew Bledsoe - Techincally has 1 Superbowl win, also lost a Superbowl
Rick Mirer - BUST
Heath Shuler - BUST
Steve McNair - Lost Superbowl
Peyton Manning - Won 2, Lost 2
Ryan Leaf - BUST
Tim Couch - BUST
Donovan McNabb - Lost Superbowl
Akili Smith - BUST
Mike Vick - Lost NFCCG half Bust/ half good
David Carr - BUST
Joey Harrington - BUST
Carson Palmer - Lost NFCCG
Eli Manning - Won 2
Alex Smith - Lost NFCCG
Vince Young - BUST
Jamarcus Russell - BUST
Matt Ryan - Lost Superbowl
Matt Stafford
Sam Bradford - BUST
Cam Newton - Lost Superbowl
Andrew Luck - Lost AFCCG
Robert Griffin III - BUST
Blake Bortles - jury still out - good and bad
Jamies Winston - looks good
Marcus Mariota - looks okay
Jared Goff - Jury still out
Carson Wentz - looks good
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dll2000 wrote:
QB is interesting since its so hard to predict. Bold within the quote is my writing. Not counting Vick that is 12 of 25 Busts (as I deem them - I think Vick is a bust too or at least was for Falcons - but I didn't count him as such) or a 48% bust rate. Round it to 50%.

Nearly half the time from Aikman to Griffin the top 3 QB pick is a Bust. Like Superman pointed out though at least those top 3 guys aren't getting paid like franchise players anymore so 2nd half of the list misses aren't nearly as devastating.

Superman(DH23) wrote:
By comparison QBs drafted top 3 since 1989

Troy Aikman - 3 Superbowl wins -
Jeff George - BUST
Drew Bledsoe - Techincally has 1 Superbowl win, also lost a Superbowl
Rick Mirer - BUST
Heath Shuler - BUST
Steve McNair - Lost Superbowl
Peyton Manning - Won 2, Lost 2
Ryan Leaf - BUST
Tim Couch - BUST
Donovan McNabb - Lost Superbowl
Akili Smith - BUST
Mike Vick - Lost NFCCG half Bust/ half good
David Carr - BUST
Joey Harrington - BUST
Carson Palmer - Lost NFCCG
Eli Manning - Won 2
Alex Smith - Lost NFCCG
Vince Young - BUST
Jamarcus Russell - BUST
Matt Ryan - Lost Superbowl
Matt Stafford
Sam Bradford - BUST
Cam Newton - Lost Superbowl
Andrew Luck - Lost AFCCG
Robert Griffin III - BUST
Blake Bortles - jury still out - good and bad
Jamies Winston - looks good
Marcus Mariota - looks okay
Jared Goff - Jury still out
Carson Wentz - looks good
just a few notes. Im not really sure its all that fair to label George, Bradford, & Rg3 as busts. Jeff George had a long career as a starter in the Nfl even winning a few playoff games. The colts were a very bad team when he was drafted there and they just never got better. Now you expect a #1 overall pick to b more than a journeyman starter but he was able to be a better than avg qb in an era of great qbs. Similarly i think Bradford is going to b a starter for a ling time. Again idk that he'll meet #1 overall expectations, but hes at least serviceable as a starter. Now rg3 is completely different. He looked poise to change the face of the position until he was left in a playoff game with what turned out to b a serious knee injury. Rg3 will forever b one of those what might have beens for me bc as a rookie he looked like Aaron Rodgers with olympic class speed

Edit one other note, Mike Vick really wasnt a bust. He made the falcons relevant again. I watched him single handedly win several games. As much as i may detest his actions that lead to his downfall, its really hard to argue that he wasnt exactly the player the falcons thought they were getting on the field
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