Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

Goldfish's Too Early Draft Rankings 2017 (Browns at 1)
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 28, 29, 30  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> NFL Draft
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
onejayhawk


Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 7566
Location: Waco, Tx
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 1:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could get the impression that the Browns did not come out of the Draft with a highly rated QB. Who says Trubisky is the next coming of Matt Ryan? Brady Quinn is more likely. Joe Flacco is the upside.

There are plenty of people comparing Garrett to Bruce Smith. If he's only Justin Smith, sobeit. It's still the right move because he's not Courtney Brown.

J
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 6:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MWil23 wrote:
Bottom line: If Kizer ends up panning out/Watson does not, then this is a great trade. If Peppers/2018 1st end up being great and Watson is good, then it's a missed opportunity for the Browns (unless Kizer pans out obviously), but not a blown pick altogether. If Watson is legit and both these picks aren't AND Kizer is terrible, then it's a terrible trade. Basically, it's a game of would you rather have Peppers, Kizer, and a future #1 or Watson? The Browns aren't in a position to take one player over three here for such an uncertain prospect, and I'm actually one of the few Watson fans on this site.


If Kizer pans out, then it's a phenomenal bit of a business and it really wouldn't matter what happens to Watson as there's no guarantee the same player would thrive in a different system. You could probably go further and argue that even if Kizer flunks completely, then picking up next year's 1st could still lead them to a QB coming out next year with significantly less questions around them. A 2nd round QB selection doesn't wed you to the pick in the same way Houston, Kansas and Chicago will be.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MWil23


Joined: 25 Aug 2006
Posts: 6433
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 8:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
MWil23 wrote:
Bottom line: If Kizer ends up panning out/Watson does not, then this is a great trade. If Peppers/2018 1st end up being great and Watson is good, then it's a missed opportunity for the Browns (unless Kizer pans out obviously), but not a blown pick altogether. If Watson is legit and both these picks aren't AND Kizer is terrible, then it's a terrible trade. Basically, it's a game of would you rather have Peppers, Kizer, and a future #1 or Watson? The Browns aren't in a position to take one player over three here for such an uncertain prospect, and I'm actually one of the few Watson fans on this site.


If Kizer pans out, then it's a phenomenal bit of a business and it really wouldn't matter what happens to Watson as there's no guarantee the same player would thrive in a different system. You could probably go further and argue that even if Kizer flunks completely, then picking up next year's 1st could still lead them to a QB coming out next year with significantly less questions around them. A 2nd round QB selection doesn't wed you to the pick in the same way Houston, Kansas and Chicago will be.


Yeah, exactly. I think we are actually saying the same thing here. Laughing

I've said for several years now that the Browns are/were so talent devoid that a QB alone wouldn't fix them.

Last year, aside from JT, their OL was garbage, their RB situation was average at best, their WR were below average, their TE situation was average to below average, and they had one of the worst secondaries and front 7s in the entire NFL in stopping the run.

There literally was not a unit of strength on their entire roster, so stockpiling players was their only option in 2016 and 2017.

If these guys start panning out and they have a solid nucleus of young talent, as it appears on paper that they do, then they can use one/multiple/all of their 5 draft picks in the first 2 rounds and over $90 million of projected cap space to make their run at their FRANCHISE QBOTF.

I guess for me as a Browns fan, I'd rather have:

*Peppers
*Kizer
*2018 1st

Than

*Watson

In 2018, I expect them to make a huge run at/push for one of the following:

*Cousins
*Jimmy G
*High end 1st pick of the draft type QB like Darnold, Rosen, or Allen.

I'm not super high on Rosen, but he's a guy that gets a lot of hype with his frame, arm, pro style offense, etc. I question his attitude/intangibles, but that's just me.

Thanks for all your work on this Fish!!!!! I enjoy reading it every year, and major props for putting yourself out on a limb. Even when you're wrong, I think that your analysis is fair and balanced.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ramssuperbowl99


Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 35257
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MWil23 wrote:
Bottom line: If Kizer ends up panning out/Watson does not, then this is a great trade. If Peppers/2018 1st end up being great and Watson is good, then it's a missed opportunity for the Browns (unless Kizer pans out obviously), but not a blown pick altogether. If Watson is legit and both these picks aren't AND Kizer is terrible, then it's a terrible trade. Basically, it's a game of would you rather have Peppers, Kizer, and a future #1 or Watson? The Browns aren't in a position to take one player over three here for such an uncertain prospect, and I'm actually one of the few Watson fans on this site.
It's a great trade regardless. The Browns are (or at least should be) evaluating their drafts based on their decision-making with the information they had at the time. Buying a lottery ticket doesn't become a good investment when you scratch the numbers and get a winner.

The Browns essentially decided to invest their 1st round pick for a year, and in exchange got a guaranteed return of Peppers and Kizer. Think about that. They got a 1st round caliber SS and a potential starting QB on the interest of that draft pick. (No that's not a perfect analogy because there is no guarantee of where the Browns will be picking next year, but Vegas has the Texans somewhere around the 12th best team in football, so you could make a reasonable projection today that they'll drop 8 spots as a result.)



Good job on these GFW. You got the top of the draft right for sure. 9ers and Browns were clearly the 2 best drafts to me.
_________________

Title Town USA wrote:
Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MWil23


Joined: 25 Aug 2006
Posts: 6433
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:
MWil23 wrote:
Bottom line: If Kizer ends up panning out/Watson does not, then this is a great trade. If Peppers/2018 1st end up being great and Watson is good, then it's a missed opportunity for the Browns (unless Kizer pans out obviously), but not a blown pick altogether. If Watson is legit and both these picks aren't AND Kizer is terrible, then it's a terrible trade. Basically, it's a game of would you rather have Peppers, Kizer, and a future #1 or Watson? The Browns aren't in a position to take one player over three here for such an uncertain prospect, and I'm actually one of the few Watson fans on this site.
It's a great trade regardless. The Browns are (or at least should be) evaluating their drafts based on their decision-making with the information they had at the time. Buying a lottery ticket doesn't become a good investment when you scratch the numbers and get a winner.

The Browns essentially decided to invest their 1st round pick for a year, and in exchange got a guaranteed return of Peppers and Kizer. Think about that. They got a 1st round caliber SS and a potential starting QB on the interest of that draft pick. (No that's not a perfect analogy because there is no guarantee of where the Browns will be picking next year, but Vegas has the Texans somewhere around the 12th best team in football, so you could make a reasonable projection today that they'll drop 8 spots as a result.)





I think that we are basically saying the same thing. I clarified my response in the post directly above yours. Wink

This is just a portion of what my conclusion was, but it's essentially the same as yours.

Quote:
I guess for me as a Browns fan, I'd rather have:

*Peppers
*Kizer
*2018 1st

Than

*Watson

_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ramssuperbowl99


Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 35257
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MWil23 wrote:
I think that we are basically saying the same thing. I clarified my response in the post directly above yours. Wink

This is just a portion of what my conclusion was, but it's essentially the same as yours.

Quote:
I guess for me as a Browns fan, I'd rather have:

*Peppers
*Kizer
*2018 1st

Than

*Watson
I'm not sure we are. I do not agree with this.
Quote:
If Kizer ends up panning out/Watson does not, then this is a great trade. If Peppers/2018 1st end up being great and Watson is good, then it's a missed opportunity for the Browns (unless Kizer pans out obviously), but not a blown pick altogether. If Watson is legit and both these picks aren't AND Kizer is terrible, then it's a terrible trade.


I don't think this requires any conditions to be a great trade for the Browns, even if Kizer/Peppers/2018 1st all turn out to be busts and Watson doesn't. Based on the information we have available, they made the right decision.
_________________

Title Town USA wrote:
Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MWil23


Joined: 25 Aug 2006
Posts: 6433
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:
I'm not sure we are. I do not agree with this.


Good! I was worried for a second that we actually agreed on something. Glad things are back to the way that they should be. Laughing
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ramssuperbowl99


Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 35257
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MWil23 wrote:
ramssuperbowl99 wrote:
I'm not sure we are. I do not agree with this.


Good! I was worried for a second that we actually agreed on something. Glad things are back to the way that they should be. Laughing
My eternal battle against revisionist-history draft evaluation keeps going apparently.

Once I'm done with that, then we can start killing the worst buzzword for any NFL GM: "franchise QB".
_________________

Title Town USA wrote:
Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MWil23


Joined: 25 Aug 2006
Posts: 6433
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:
My eternal battle against revisionist-history draft evaluation keeps going apparently.

Once I'm done with that, then we can start killing the worst buzzword for any NFL GM: "franchise QB".


It's just funny that we often have the same conclusions but the way we get there is different. Oh well.

Can you at least add "Generational Talent" to the list of killing buzzwords?
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ramssuperbowl99


Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 35257
PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MWil23 wrote:
ramssuperbowl99 wrote:
My eternal battle against revisionist-history draft evaluation keeps going apparently.

Once I'm done with that, then we can start killing the worst buzzword for any NFL GM: "franchise QB".


It's just funny that we often have the same conclusions but the way we get there is different. Oh well.

Can you at least add "Generational Talent" to the list of killing buzzwords?
Yeah that's a good one to note too. At least that still has value-related meaning, unlike "franchise QB", which is just GM-speak for "you can't criticize me regardless of what I paid".
_________________

Title Town USA wrote:
Don't question Rams. He runs this place. He is The Man.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
onejayhawk


Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 7566
Location: Waco, Tx
PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since we are comparing historical drafts in another thread, I thought I'd give some very early feed back GFW's 2014 write up.

Tm CarAV -- -- RK Team
JAX 108 -- -- 1 St Louis Rams
OAK 107 -- -- 2 Minnesota Vikings
StL 97 -- -- 3 Houston Texans
ATL 78 -- -- 4 San Francisco 49ers
NYG 78 -- -- 5 Jacksonville Jaguars
MIN 77 -- -- 6 Oakland Raiders
BUF 76 -- -- 7 Baltimore Ravens
GB 76 -- -- 8 Atlanta Falcons
BAL 69 -- -- 9 Pittsburgh Steelers
TEN 65 -- -- 10 Philadelphia Eagles
WAS 64 -- -- 11 San Diego Chargers
CAR 63 -- -- 12 Arizona Cardinals
DAL 63 -- -- 13 Washington Redskins
HOU 61 -- -- 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SF 61 -- -- 15 New York Jets
MIA 60 -- -- 16 Green Bay Packers
CIN 56 -- -- 17 New York Giants
PIT 55 -- -- 18 Detroit Lions
TB 54 -- -- 19 Cincinnati Bengals
KC 51 -- -- 20 Chcago Bears
DET 50 -- -- 21 New Orleans Saints
CLE 49 -- -- 22 Buffalo Bills
CHI 48 -- -- 23 Miami Dolphins
NE 45 -- -- 24 Denver Broncos
ARI 44 -- -- 25 Cleveland Browns
DEN 42 -- -- 26 Tennessee Titans
IND 40 -- -- 27 Carolina Panthers
PHI 39 -- -- 28 New England Patriots
SEA 37 -- -- 29 Dallas Cowboys
NYJ 34 -- -- 30 Kansas City Chiefs
SD 27 -- -- 31 Seattle Seahawks
NO 25 -- -- 32 Indianapolis Colts

Pretty good, I think. The big misses are Titans (better than expected) and Chargers (worse).

J
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
HTTRG3Dynasty


Joined: 03 Apr 2012
Posts: 10600
PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On that note, here were the best drafting teams since 2012 according to Career Approximate Value Plus/Minus:



It's definitely not a perfect way to measure draft class success (it's based on value, not how good a player actually is), but the correlation of teams with strong drafts from 2012 to 2016 to teams that are considered good teams today (and vice versa) looks to be pretty high in the above graphic, with a few outliers.

The article here goes in detail on the method used: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/04/nfl-draft-performance-grades-best-drafting-teams-picks-classes-2012-2016
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
Posts: 8093
PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 1:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
On that note, here were the best drafting teams since 2012 according to Career Approximate Value Plus/Minus:



It's definitely not a perfect way to measure draft class success (it's based on value, not how good a player actually is), but the correlation of teams with strong drafts from 2012 to 2016 to teams that are considered good teams today (and vice versa) looks to be pretty high in the above graphic, with a few outliers.

The article here goes in detail on the method used: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/04/nfl-draft-performance-grades-best-drafting-teams-picks-classes-2012-2016


Packers, Seahawks, Raiders in the top 5. What do they have in common... Ron Wolf. Man must have been a genius. Was before my time.
_________________
Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 291
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 1:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="MWil23"]
goldfishwars wrote:
MWil23 wrote:
Bottom line: If Kizer ends up panning out/Watson does not, then this is a great trade. If Peppers/2018 1st end up being great and Watson is good, then it's a missed opportunity for the Browns (unless Kizer pans out obviously), but not a blown pick altogether. If Watson is legit and both these picks aren't AND Kizer is terrible, then it's a terrible trade. Basically, it's a game of would you rather have Peppers, Kizer, and a future #1 or Watson? The Browns aren't in a position to take one player over three here for such an uncertain prospect, and I'm actually one of the few Watson fans on this site.


If Kizer pans out, then it's a phenomenal bit of a business and it really wouldn't matter what happens to Watson as there's no guarantee the same player would thrive in a different system. You could probably go further and argue that even if Kizer flunks completely, then picking up next year's 1st could still lead them to a QB coming out next year with significantly less questions around them. A 2nd round QB selection doesn't wed you to the pick in the same way Houston, Kansas and Chicago will be.


Yeah, exactly. I think we are actually saying the same thing here. Laughing

I've said for several years now that the Browns are/were so talent devoid that a QB alone wouldn't fix them.

Last year, aside from JT, their OL was garbage, their RB situation was average at best, their WR were below average, their TE situation was average to below average, and they had one of the worst secondaries and front 7s in the entire NFL in stopping the run.

There literally was not a unit of strength on their entire roster, so stockpiling players was their only option in 2016 and 2017.

If these guys start panning out and they have a solid nucleus of young talent, as it appears on paper that they do, then they can use one/multiple/all of their 5 draft picks in the first 2 rounds and over $90 million of projected cap space to make their run at their FRANCHISE QBOTF.

I guess for me as a Browns fan, I'd rather have:

*Peppers
*Kizer
*2018 1st

Than

*Watson

Quote:

Here I would completely agree, Watson is also a longshot to succeed
.

In 2018, I expect them to make a huge run at/push for one of the following:

*Cousins
*Jimmy G
*High end 1st pick of the draft type QB like Darnold, Rosen, or Allen.

Quote:

I would go with taking a rookie over Cousins or Jimmy G, there are still lots of question marks about their upsides.


I'm not super high on Rosen, but he's a guy that gets a lot of hype with his frame, arm, pro style offense, etc. I question his attitude/intangibles, but that's just me.

Rosen is coming off shoulder surgery and nobody knows if that great arm strength is still there and there are definitely questions about his attitude. He will need to show a lot this season to remain in the battle with Darnold and Allen for a top 1-3 pick.
_________________
and proud of it!!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
JBURGE25


Joined: 25 Jan 2012
Posts: 18583
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
On that note, here were the best drafting teams since 2012 according to Career Approximate Value Plus/Minus:



It's definitely not a perfect way to measure draft class success (it's based on value, not how good a player actually is), but the correlation of teams with strong drafts from 2012 to 2016 to teams that are considered good teams today (and vice versa) looks to be pretty high in the above graphic, with a few outliers.

The article here goes in detail on the method used: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/04/nfl-draft-performance-grades-best-drafting-teams-picks-classes-2012-2016


Packers, Seahawks, Raiders in the top 5. What do they have in common... Ron Wolf. Man must have been a genius. Was before my time.
Not sure if Dorsey uses the Wolf point system but the Chiefs are up there too, wonder if the 2012 draft was a detractor from his number or not
_________________

FF Big Brother III Winner Cool
[sig by El ramster]
blueswedeshoes wrote:
JBURGE25 wrote:
I don't hunt
So I gathered.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> NFL Draft All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 28, 29, 30  Next
Page 29 of 30

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group