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Goldfish's Too Early Draft Rankings 2017 (Browns at 1)
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goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 7:45 am    Post subject: Goldfish's Too Early Draft Rankings 2017 (Browns at 1) Reply with quote

Hey guys. Iím back here to rank and review every teamís draft in a manner that makes no sense given the close proximity in time to the draft and my severe limitations as a draft analyst. With that in mind, Iím not the kind of person who is going to let that stop me and Iíll try and do so in a way that entertains and annoys everybody in equal measure.

As usual, FA and UDFA have no bearing on the rankings.

Last yearís thread (man I was comically low on that Chargers draft)
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=578550

2015:
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=566008

1. Cleveland Browns
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Dallas Cowboys
6. Washington Redskins
7. Minnesota Vikings
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. Green Bay Packers
10. Indianapolis Colts
11. Carolina Panthers
12. Houston Texans
13. New Orleans Saints
14. Baltimore Ravens
15. Buffalo Bills
16. Arizona Cardinals
17. Miami Dolphins
18. Oakland Raiders
19. LA Rams
20. Tennessee Titans
21. Seattle Seahawks
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. Philadelphia Eagles
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
25. Denver Broncos
26. Atlanta Falcons
27. New York Jets
28. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Detroit Lions
30. New York Giants
31. Chicago Bears
32. New England Patriots


Last edited by goldfishwars on Fri May 19, 2017 3:39 pm; edited 32 times in total
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goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

32. New England Patriots



Selections:
83. Derek Rivers [DE] Youngstown State
85. Antonio Garcia [OT] Troy
131. Deatrich Wise Jr. [DE] Arkansas
211. Conor McDermott [OT] UCLA


Best Pick:
Derek Rivers: This pick seemed to happen just to annoy people who think the Patriots get all the damn luck. The Patriots were busy not engaging in this draft in any way possible and Rivers still seemed determined to magnetically drift into their laps, ready to fill a pretty important need on the edge of a defensive front now shorn of Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard. The ability to burst off the line isnít a quality seen in abundance elsewhere on the roster, so it was crucial to get some competition there for New England.

Most Questionable Pick:
They made a total of four picks. Iíd say Conor McDermott because heís terrible, even though pick 211 isnít exactly setting the expectations high.

Steal:
Antonio Garcia: Potentially? The Pats are thin at tackle with Sebastian Vollmer likely to retire after being released. Garcia certainly showed some upside as a blocker and was one of the few development tackles in the draft with the feet to man the left side. Heíll need time to develop, but the good news for him is that heís going to get one of the best in the business to help coach him up.

Overview:
Come on, the Patriots treated this draft with disdain. Four picks starting in round 3, we're not ranking them any higher than this.

New Englandís front office were more than happy to part with their draft capital in exchange for free agent acquisitions that could help the team now. That says way more about how the team feel about themselves than it does about the quality of this draft, of which I have no doubt they could have landed some good players. However, this (yet again) could well be Tom Bradyís last season with the team and with them holding onto Jimmy Garoppolo despite some pretty wild offers (according to rumors), itís fairly obvious they feel that way too. Therefore it makes sense for them to invest in veterans who can fill roles right now. To land a potential starter in Derek Rivers, who has a serious level of competition uptick to acclimatise to, is still probably more than they could have hoped for given their starting point.

I havenít seen much of Deatrich Wise to comment on the quality of his play. I know heís a versatile player from a school weíre familiar dealing with. His PFF comparison was Corey Wootton, which isnít particularly flattering. They must have liked him a little as most of their other late round picks were traded away, presumably because they didnít think they could find anyone that could make the team.


Last edited by goldfishwars on Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:33 am; edited 1 time in total
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Longhorns90


Joined: 28 Oct 2009
Posts: 1405
Location: Denver, CO (via Austin, TX)
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something to look forward to next year when we don't have any picks in the first two rounds either. Laughing
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Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
Posts: 997
Location: Orion Spur
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brady Window. I'm beginning to think Bill has a retirement date set in his mind. I know I would.

Rivers is amazing for not knowing a #### thing. But with this draft if they didn't get him at that spot they would have gotten someone else equally exciting. Wise is a lot less than he should be, but I don't think NE is the team that will bring it out. I think Garcia was a reach and is farther away than worth it for a first contract. I am higher on McDermott than you, but that does not mean I am high on him.

People forget that Bill is just not a good drafter. He's deadly on trades and waiver wires, but not drafting college kids. Take out Brady and he has been consistently bad.

PS. I'd be interested in seeing you re-rank your rankings after 1 year.
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onejayhawk


Joined: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 7566
Location: Waco, Tx
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is becoming an annual rite.

When you take trade value into account, the Pats draft is not so bad. Still, these four guys is these four guys. It's not much.

J
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I liked the Patriots draft when you consider the NFL Vets that several of the picks were traded for. First two picks I think will pan out. The rest of the picks, meh...
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goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheVillain112 wrote:
I liked the Patriots draft when you consider the NFL Vets that several of the picks were traded for...


Yeah definitely. But in isolation, which is what I have to do here, it's four picks with one potential starter and perhaps something down the road in Garcia.
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
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Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My money says the Bears come off in the next 5, if not next.
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goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

31. Chicago Bears


Selections:
2 Mitchell Trubisky [ QB ] North Carolina
45 Adam Shaheen [ TE ] Ashland
112 Eddie Jackson [ S ] Alabama
119 Tarik Cohen [ RB ] North Carolina A&T
147 Jordan Morgan [ G ] Kutztown

Best Pick:
Eddie Jackson Ė Loved far more by Alabama where he was one of four team captains and a cherished locker room leader, than by a draft community who were unable to see much of him throughout the process due to a broken leg he suffered in October. At 6 feet and 203, heís perhaps slightly less than ideal proportions by modern day safety standards, but by no means off-putting. He was a smart operator at the back end of Alabamaís defense, someone who was versatile who also had the ability to take the ball away. Kick return abilities are a nice added bonus.

Most Questionable Pick:
Mitchell Trubisky Ė Not necessarily the pick itself, just purely weighing up what they had to give up to move up one spot against what they got in return. We can argue all day about whether it would have been smart for the Bears to take a quarterback at 3, given their investment in Glennon, their other needs and Trubiskyís light resume. The whole episode was a little surreal, even if I actually get that they would want two bites of the quarterback apple in the off-season given the HC and GM need to start winning or at least convince the ownership and fan base they are on the right path. They were clearly not one quarterback away from succeeding, so if youíre worried about not landing him at 3, then donít throw away opportunities to upgrade much needed talent elsewhere.

Steal:
Tarik Cohen Ė I didn't see any of Jordan Morgan to comment, apart from enjoying the fact there's a school called Kutztown in the world. As for Cohen, he's 5í6 and 168 pounds and I still canít tell if heís more likely to become one of the leagueís best mismatch weapons or someone who is just physically incapable of coping with the physical demands of the NFL. Thereís certainly something rare about what this guy can do with a football in his hands. Itís still going to take a creative offensive mind to make it a success, but thereís certainly plenty to be intrigued about.

Overview:
Itís odd the Bears were so fixed on Trubkisy, they absolutely were unwilling to take Watson or Mahomes as back up plans. Both ended up with teams giving away their first rounders next year to come and get them, so clearly Kansas or Houston thought they were decent enough fallback options. I get the mindset of taking your QB anyway you can, but this is essentially why bad teams stay bad. Because theyíre run by people who get wedded to prospects, make panicked decisions and donít appreciate the value of draft picks.

Adam Shaheen might be a good tight end one day and clearly has some physical potential, but tight ends donít often see a deal of success in their first seasons and he has as big of a transition to the league as anybody coming out. It could be a while before he gets delivers on that second round investment.

I do like that they tried to get back some of the draft capital they lost, but if Pace and co thought this was the draft that was going to save their jobs, then theyíve left a lot of needs unfilled to take a quarterback who probably wonít be starting for them much this year. And if he does, that wouldnít necessarily be a good thing for him or the Bears.
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TankWilliams


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Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^called it.

Fair points above can't argue with most of this, except a few points.

1. People need to recognize that Glennon's contract is not in any way excessive, and after year 1, nothing is guaranteed. He's being paid as the 21st highest paid QB in the NFL for a single season, and after that point they can move on.

2. I don't think the bears really in the grand scheme of things gave up a significant amount, and I don't think they panicked. According to the Chicago Tribune, there were significant offers from Jacksonville and other teams to moveup to 2 to grab Trubisky before the Bears. The Bears made the only offer that would allow SF to still get Soloman Thomas, and the Bears traded away nothing higher than a 3rd round pick to swap the firsts. To guarantee you get your top QB, I don't think that is a significant exchange and I think they are in a much better situation in that regard than KC or Houston in that they didn't mortgage their future to trade up for the guy. Next year they are still mostly whole. Whether or not Trubisky was the right QB is a different question entirely, but I have come to understand the logic behind the trade and think it is being unfairly hailed as a bad decision.

3.Adam Pace's job is safe for the foreseeable future, but John Fox most likely is not if the Bears don't turn things around a bit this year. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that Pace is posturing himself to secure his future and possibly become a better target for the head coaching hunt in 2018 so guys like Harbaugh or Shaw might be willing to come by seeing that they have some untapped offensive potential that they could work on.
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goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
^called it.

Fair points above can't argue with most of this, except a few points.

1. People need to recognize that Glennon's contract is not in any way excessive, and after year 1, nothing is guaranteed. He's being paid as the 21st highest paid QB in the NFL for a single season, and after that point they can move on.


Never argued any different on this point. My beef with Bears taking Trubisky at two has nothing to do with Glennon's deal.

TankWilliams wrote:
2. I don't think the bears really in the grand scheme of things gave up a significant amount, and I don't think they panicked. According to the Chicago Tribune, there were significant offers from Jacksonville and other teams to moveup to 2 to grab Trubisky before the Bears. The Bears made the only offer that would allow SF to still get Soloman Thomas, and the Bears traded away nothing higher than a 3rd round pick to swap the firsts. To guarantee you get your top QB, I don't think that is a significant exchange and I think they are in a much better situation in that regard than KC or Houston in that they didn't mortgage their future to trade up for the guy. Next year they are still mostly whole. Whether or not Trubisky was the right QB is a different question entirely, but I have come to understand the logic behind the trade and think it is being unfairly hailed as a bad decision.


You can't justify doing something dumb by saying other teams were willing to do it too. If those other teams did have an interest in moving up (and that's a big if), clearly they were offering something less to do so. I'm all for 'getting your guy', but it seems a bit much to do this for a player who most couldn't say was the clear best QB prospect in the draft and had played a grand total of one season for one season of college football. If you get jumped, you're still in a great position. Take the next best quarterback, or get an excellent player at a position of need, or simply trade back and get a bunch of picks. That's what sensible teams do. If going up one spot whilst throwing half of your draft value away isn't panicking, I really don't know what is.
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TankWilliams


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^You said "investment in Glennon" which I misinterpreted.


We will have to agree to disagree on the trade. I'm NOT sold on Trubisky so I hope thats not the point that people take from this, but I really don't think trading 2 3's and a 4th to move up to guarantee you get the QB you think best has the best potential to be the face of your franchise for the next decade is a large price to pay.
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goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
^You said "investment in Glennon" which I misinterpreted.


We will have to agree to disagree on the trade. I'm NOT sold on Trubisky so I hope thats not the point that people take from this, but I really don't think trading 2 3's and a 4th to move up to guarantee you get the QB you think best has the best potential to be the face of your franchise for the next decade is a large price to pay.


Hey, if he gets to play a decade as the face of the franchise then nobody will care about the trade up.
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kyle21121


Joined: 07 Dec 2005
Posts: 11000
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think you can be faulted too much for draft rankings a week or so after the draft. It's all opinion based until you see the product on the field. Just look back at them 4 years down the line and see what you got right.

Now I think on paper the chargers look to have had a top 10 draft don't wanna under estimate them twice in a row.

Bears draft really hinges on Mitch. If in 4-5 years he's a top 10-ish QB then this draft should be looked at as a success despite everything they gave up. I'm skeptical of that happening and in the immediate future it looks bad.
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Heinz D.


Joined: 26 Apr 2017
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Location: Tri-State Area
PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
You can't justify doing something dumb by saying other teams were willing to do it too. If those other teams did have an interest in moving up (and that's a big if), clearly they were offering something less to do so. I'm all for 'getting your guy', but it seems a bit much to do this for a player who most couldn't say was the clear best QB prospect in the draft and had played a grand total of one season for one season of college football. If you get jumped, you're still in a great position. Take the next best quarterback, or get an excellent player at a position of need, or simply trade back and get a bunch of picks. That's what sensible teams do. If going up one spot whilst throwing half of your draft value away isn't panicking, I really don't know what is.

If other teams were willing to move up to get Trubiski (and it's pretty clear that they were), and if they had been successful making that move, would have had to have given up more than the Bears did, then I think it's safe to say that the jury's still out on whether those folks were "doing something dumb". And I don't think you can honestly say that you're all for "getting your guy" when the bulk of your criticism comes down to the Bears not getting your guy. The Bears' felt there was only one franchise quarterback in this draft, so just getting a different one at three wasn't really an option.

I'm a Bears fan, but far from a Bears apologist. That being said, I think a lot of the criticism of this pick stems from a widespread belief (with people looking solely at the win-loss record) that the Bears roster is far worse than it actually is. Alshon Jeffrey wasn't the whole team. There is some talent there.
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