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2017 4.07 (114) RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma
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Doc Draper


Joined: 18 Dec 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Before I begin, I want to say:

"Hello, my name is Woz. And I'm a data nerd."

I stayed up until nearly 3AM last night aggregating the remaining top 200 prospects as determined by CBS, DraftTek and NFL.com. If a given player showed up in the top 200 of one of those sites, I marked them down and then found their score in the other two lists. I then averaged the grades together and then took the standard deviation to show how much dispute were between the lists.

In the case of DraftTek and NFL.com, they only went to the top 400 prospects, so if they weren't listed, I scored them with 401. Incidentally, that is why Caleb Brantley ranked 64th and had one of the highest deviations (NFL.com had him as their 24th prospect). Personally, I think that NFL.com not devaluing Brantley is a joke, but that's a topic for another time and probably another place (teams obviously devalued him).

So, on to my evaluation of Perine:

4.07 (114): Samaje Perine, RB from Oklahoma; 12th overall in my aggregate with an average of 111.0 (std dev: 19.51; DT = 137, CBS = 106, NFL = 90)

Perine was the best remaining running back on the list for all three lists. As a player in and of himself, he sounds a bit like a rich man's version of Rob Kelley: power runner who rarely loses yards but isn't going to get more than what is there in front of him. He's a solid pick, but I'm not sure he's much different than what we already have. Still, in and of himself, he looks to be a solid 4th round pick.

I hate that we selected him.

Not because of anything is wrong with Perine, but in what we ignored by taking him. Because at 115th overall, the Arizona Cardinals swooped in (no pun intended) and selected Dorian Johnson, guard out of Pittsburgh. Not only is the left guard the weakest position on the Redskins' offense, but Johnson was the second best available player remaining on Day 3. His average position was 67.7 (std. dev of 4.11), so each site projected him as a late round 2, early round 3 player. Getting him in round 4 is spectacular value ... for the Cardinals.

As best as I can tell, selecting Perine was solely the Redskins front office becoming myopic and saying to themselves "we MUST get a running back!" Rumors started flying yesterday that they wanted to get another running back and were putting Matt Jones on the trading block.

So, since Perine reads out a bit like what they already have in Kelley, I must conclude they just straight up screwed the pooch here.

Will Perine be a bad player to add to the Redskins? No. As others have said, he's a solid 4th round pick. But when you consider what we passed on to get him, this was stupid.


Woz- well done. I completely agree with your conclusions and posted something very similar without the data under the how do we feel about draft topic

They played it safe and identified a need and prioritized that and got the highest ranked player at that position like looking at a scouting services position draft guide. I call it Smallball play it safe and avoid getting criticized which led to my grade as a C
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lavar703


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He'll be the best player from our draft simply because he's going to touch the ball so much. He's built for the NFC east and behind a powerful OL he's going to get a full-head of steam and just wear defenses down. I wanted a RB, a different style of back but a guy like this is going to pound defenses in those December and January months.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wait, Woz, do we know that Dorian Johnson is better than the 4th round guard that we drafted in 2015?

I'm not sure we know that any of the mid round guards are better than what we already know we have with Kouandijo. Us not taking a guard in the mid rounds is probably a sign of how much our coaches like Kouandijo.

It seems to me we went with one of, if not the BPA when we took Perine. He's someone most of us had targeted in the end of the 3rd or 2nd for the reasons you explained in your post. I'll be shocked if he's not our starter this year, and if he's not, at worst he gets some carries throughout the game to give Kelley a breather and beats up on a tired defense.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 30, 2017 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lavar703 wrote:
He'll be the best player from our draft simply because he's going to touch the ball so much. He's built for the NFC east and behind a powerful OL he's going to get a full-head of steam and just wear defenses down. I wanted a RB, a different style of back but a guy like this is going to pound defenses in those December and January months.
100% agree with the bolded, he's the type of back that beats up on already beat up defenses in December and January which will help our offense out immensely and keep our defense more fresh in those months. The last two years we didn't have that kind of running back at the end of the year when we needed it most.
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mike23md


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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I like the Perine pick, and the value was right on, I believe that Jamaal Williams, picked 11 picks later to be the better 1 cut back than Perine and he would have been a much better fit in this offense.

I think we carry 3 RB's.

Perine
Kelley
Thompson

PS: Marshall
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Woz


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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
Woz wrote:
Marcus21 wrote:
I was trying to make the point that 4,122 yards and 49 tads means he is more than a short yardage back! He had 427 yards against Kansas as a freshman!


1. In general, the Big XII is not known for their defensive prowess.
2. Kansas is amongst the weakest teams in the Big XII.

As I said, he's a solid RB pick in isolation. He could get a lot of carries as a rookie.

However, I don't see what he adds that we didn't already have. I also think that going in a different direction (i.e. Dorian Johnson) would have created much better returns for Kelley or a "lesser" running back like say Brian Hill in the 5th or De'Angelo Henderson in the 6th (again, my small school bias shows through a bit).
When we drafted Alfred Morris how many of us thought he'd go for 1,500 yards? I'm choosing to be optimistic on Perine.


If Mike Shanahan were still coaching, I would not say a peep about Perine (beyond grousing on passing on Johnson). However, I have not see much of anything from Gruden that shows me he can design a run game that works over the long term.

Again, Perine in and of himself looks like a decent pickup (albeit akin to what we already have in Kelley). I just hate that we passed up much better value in terms of the draft itself and improving the team as a whole.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Mon May 01, 2017 3:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Wait, Woz, do we know that Dorian Johnson is better than the 4th round guard that we drafted in 2015?

I'm not sure we know that any of the mid round guards are better than what we already know we have with Kouandijo. Us not taking a guard in the mid rounds is probably a sign of how much our coaches like Kouandijo.


Per NFL.com
Arie Kouandjio = 5.28
Dorian Johnson = 5.83

Code:
5.70-5.99    Could become early NFL starter
5.30-5.69    Backup or eventual starter
5.15-5.29    Developmental prospect or special teams potential


So, yeah, I think we can say that Dorian Johnson in the 4th this year would have been better value than Arie Kouandjio in the 4th was in 2015.

Quote:
It seems to me we went with one of, if not the BPA when we took Perine. He's someone most of us had targeted in the end of the 3rd or 2nd for the reasons you explained in your post. I'll be shocked if he's not our starter this year, and if he's not, at worst he gets some carries throughout the game to give Kelley a breather and beats up on a tired defense.


Yes, he will likely be the starting RB in part because he's a rich man's version of Rob Kelley. He's a better version of what we have, just like getting the 2017 Honda Accord is usually better than a 2013 Honda Accord. All we did was change the model year. Yes, it's a reliable automobile that will do what you want without having to worry about it, but you don't usually win a street race with it.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Wait, Woz, do we know that Dorian Johnson is better than the 4th round guard that we drafted in 2015?

I'm not sure we know that any of the mid round guards are better than what we already know we have with Kouandijo. Us not taking a guard in the mid rounds is probably a sign of how much our coaches like Kouandijo.


Per NFL.com
Arie Kouandjio = 5.28
Dorian Johnson = 5.83

Code:
5.70-5.99    Could become early NFL starter
5.30-5.69    Backup or eventual starter
5.15-5.29    Developmental prospect or special teams potential


So, yeah, I think we can say that Dorian Johnson in the 4th this year would have been better value than Arie Kouandjio in the 4th was in 2015.

Quote:
It seems to me we went with one of, if not the BPA when we took Perine. He's someone most of us had targeted in the end of the 3rd or 2nd for the reasons you explained in your post. I'll be shocked if he's not our starter this year, and if he's not, at worst he gets some carries throughout the game to give Kelley a breather and beats up on a tired defense.


Yes, he will likely be the starting RB in part because he's a rich man's version of Rob Kelley. He's a better version of what we have, just like getting the 2017 Honda Accord is usually better than a 2013 Honda Accord. All we did was change the model year. Yes, it's a reliable automobile that will do what you want without having to worry about it, but you don't usually win a street race with it.
The tents of a point can say whatever they want. I don't think Johnson is a huge upgrade over Kouandijo - who may be our starter this year over Lauvao - they're about equal to me. On the other hand, I think that Perine is now the best pure running back on our roster, so, Perine was one of the highest rated players and he filled the greater need. It was a good selection, you're nitpicking over it.

Just be happy we drafted a good, tough prospect at running back who has a nose for the endzone and is good at getting the tough yards like Alfred Morris was and we still have a good prospect in Kouandijo developing at OG who's been in the system now for 3 years and could have developed into our starting LG for this season. I think Kouandijo will push Lauvao for the starting LG spot this year and if not this year, he'll be our starter next year at Lg.
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Doc Draper


Joined: 18 Dec 2012
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
Woz wrote:
Marcus21 wrote:
I was trying to make the point that 4,122 yards and 49 tads means he is more than a short yardage back! He had 427 yards against Kansas as a freshman!


1. In general, the Big XII is not known for their defensive prowess.
2. Kansas is amongst the weakest teams in the Big XII.

As I said, he's a solid RB pick in isolation. He could get a lot of carries as a rookie.

However, I don't see what he adds that we didn't already have. I also think that going in a different direction (i.e. Dorian Johnson) would have created much better returns for Kelley or a "lesser" running back like say Brian Hill in the 5th or De'Angelo Henderson in the 6th (again, my small school bias shows through a bit).
When we drafted Alfred Morris how many of us thought he'd go for 1,500 yards? I'm choosing to be optimistic on Perine.


If Mike Shanahan were still coaching, I would not say a peep about Perine (beyond grousing on passing on Johnson). However, I have not see much of anything from Gruden that shows me he can design a run game that works over the long term.

Again, Perine in and of himself looks like a decent pickup (albeit akin to what we already have in Kelley). I just hate that we passed up much better value in terms of the draft itself and improving the team as a whole.


+1. Gruden do like them double D's- dives and draws
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bill Callahan designs the run scheme and calls the run plays. Before Callahan was hired, we had a good full back - Darrell Young - and when that full back was healthy our running game was productive and extremely efficient.

Ever since Callahan was hired, our OL has gotten bigger, better and been developed better but our running game has gotten worse. We haven't had a true fullback - because Callahan doesn't use one - and we haven't had good blocking TEs and our running game has gone from being great in 2012 & 13 to good in 2014 to below average each of the last two years with Callahan being the running game coordinator.

I'm not saying get rid of Callahan right now, but we have to get better results out of his running scheme than we've been getting the last two years. If we don't get better results out of his running game then, in the future he will be gone. If Callahan is eventually gone, we should go back to having a true fullback which, is what Jay Gruden always had in his offense and used a lot when he had Darrell Young in both the passing game and running game.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Wait, Woz, do we know that Dorian Johnson is better than the 4th round guard that we drafted in 2015?

I'm not sure we know that any of the mid round guards are better than what we already know we have with Kouandijo. Us not taking a guard in the mid rounds is probably a sign of how much our coaches like Kouandijo.


Per NFL.com
Arie Kouandjio = 5.28
Dorian Johnson = 5.83

Code:
5.70-5.99    Could become early NFL starter
5.30-5.69    Backup or eventual starter
5.15-5.29    Developmental prospect or special teams potential


So, yeah, I think we can say that Dorian Johnson in the 4th this year would have been better value than Arie Kouandjio in the 4th was in 2015.

Quote:
It seems to me we went with one of, if not the BPA when we took Perine. He's someone most of us had targeted in the end of the 3rd or 2nd for the reasons you explained in your post. I'll be shocked if he's not our starter this year, and if he's not, at worst he gets some carries throughout the game to give Kelley a breather and beats up on a tired defense.


Yes, he will likely be the starting RB in part because he's a rich man's version of Rob Kelley. He's a better version of what we have, just like getting the 2017 Honda Accord is usually better than a 2013 Honda Accord. All we did was change the model year. Yes, it's a reliable automobile that will do what you want without having to worry about it, but you don't usually win a street race with it.
The tents of a point can say whatever they want. I don't think Johnson is a huge upgrade over Kouandijo - who may be our starter this year over Lauvao - they're about equal to me.


Six tenths of a point in NFL.com's grading system is MASSIVE.

They had ONE player at 7.0+: Myles Garrett
They had 34 players at 6.0+. 26 went in the first round, 5 went in the second round, 1 in the 3rd (Tim Williams), and 1 in the 6th (Caleb Brantley).
They had 10 players at <5.0 and nine players that didn't have a grade prior to the draft.

That means 200 players had a draft grade from NFL.com of 5.0-5.9.

Assuming an even distribution, that means about 20 players at each grade (it isn't an even distribution, but it make the math easy). Roughly speaking, going from a 5.8 (rounding down Johnson) to 5.3 (rounding up Kouandjio) is about 100 players of value, or almost 3 rounds difference.

Quote:
On the other hand, I think that Perine is now the best pure running back on our roster, so, Perine was one of the highest rated players and he filled the greater need. It was a good selection, you're nitpicking over it.


No, I'm not nitpicking.

At the start of Day 3, Perine was the 12th best available prospect:
Carl Lawson
Dorian Johnson
Desmond King
Nathan Peterman
Chad Hansen
Dede Westbrook
Jaleel Johnson
Isaac Asiata
Roderick Johnson
Samaje Perine

Jaleel Johnson and Westbrook were taken before we picked at 114. So we selected the tenth best available prospect.

Had we taken Dorian Johnson here and then taken Perine (or if he was off the table, then a guy like Marlon Mack) at 123, I would be A LOT happier. That would be maximizing their draft power AND getting players that would fill needs.

Also, are you actually suggesting that RB is a higher need than LG? If that's the case, should be happy we ended up with a guy who is basically Rob Kelley?

Quote:
Just be happy we drafted a good, tough prospect at running back who has a nose for the endzone and is good at getting the tough yards like Alfred Morris was and we still have a good prospect in Kouandijo developing at OG who's been in the system now for 3 years and could have developed into our starting LG for this season. I think Kouandijo will push Lauvao for the starting LG spot this year and if not this year, he'll be our starter next year at Lg.


So, what you are saying is that I should be happy that we took a short yardage back instead of improving our left guard spot because a guy who we took three years ago will stumble into the starting role simply because the guy who is ahead of him likely will not be re-signed? Yay ... Rolling Eyes

As I have said before, I like the Perine selection from who we got as a player. But that is taking the guy out of the context where he was drafted. If we're going to celebrate things going well like Allen inexplicably falling to the Redskins at 17, we also have to acknowledge when the front office makes a poor decision by locking in on one guy.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mike23md wrote:
While I like the Perine pick, and the value was right on, I believe that Jamaal Williams, picked 11 picks later to be the better 1 cut back than Perine and he would have been a much better fit in this offense.

I think we carry 3 RB's.

Perine
Kelley
Thompson

PS: Marshall
The same Jamal Williams that quit on his teammates and at Utah last year before deciding to come back a few weeks later?

No thanks.

I agree about the RBs we'll carry.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Wait, Woz, do we know that Dorian Johnson is better than the 4th round guard that we drafted in 2015?

I'm not sure we know that any of the mid round guards are better than what we already know we have with Kouandijo. Us not taking a guard in the mid rounds is probably a sign of how much our coaches like Kouandijo.


Per NFL.com
Arie Kouandjio = 5.28
Dorian Johnson = 5.83

Code:
5.70-5.99    Could become early NFL starter
5.30-5.69    Backup or eventual starter
5.15-5.29    Developmental prospect or special teams potential


So, yeah, I think we can say that Dorian Johnson in the 4th this year would have been better value than Arie Kouandjio in the 4th was in 2015.

Quote:
It seems to me we went with one of, if not the BPA when we took Perine. He's someone most of us had targeted in the end of the 3rd or 2nd for the reasons you explained in your post. I'll be shocked if he's not our starter this year, and if he's not, at worst he gets some carries throughout the game to give Kelley a breather and beats up on a tired defense.


Yes, he will likely be the starting RB in part because he's a rich man's version of Rob Kelley. He's a better version of what we have, just like getting the 2017 Honda Accord is usually better than a 2013 Honda Accord. All we did was change the model year. Yes, it's a reliable automobile that will do what you want without having to worry about it, but you don't usually win a street race with it.
The tents of a point can say whatever they want. I don't think Johnson is a huge upgrade over Kouandijo - who may be our starter this year over Lauvao - they're about equal to me.


Six tenths of a point in NFL.com's grading system is MASSIVE.

They had ONE player at 7.0+: Myles Garrett
They had 34 players at 6.0+. 26 went in the first round, 5 went in the second round, 1 in the 3rd (Tim Williams), and 1 in the 6th (Caleb Brantley).
They had 10 players at <5.0 and nine players that didn't have a grade prior to the draft.

That means 200 players had a draft grade from NFL.com of 5.0-5.9.

Assuming an even distribution, that means about 20 players at each grade (it isn't an even distribution, but it make the math easy). Roughly speaking, going from a 5.8 (rounding down Johnson) to 5.3 (rounding up Kouandjio) is about 100 players of value, or almost 3 rounds difference.

Quote:
On the other hand, I think that Perine is now the best pure running back on our roster, so, Perine was one of the highest rated players and he filled the greater need. It was a good selection, you're nitpicking over it.


No, I'm not nitpicking.

At the start of Day 3, Perine was the 12th best available prospect:
Carl Lawson
Dorian Johnson
Desmond King
Nathan Peterman
Chad Hansen
Dede Westbrook
Jaleel Johnson
Isaac Asiata
Roderick Johnson
Samaje Perine

Jaleel Johnson and Westbrook were taken before we picked at 114. So we selected the tenth best available prospect.

Had we taken Dorian Johnson here and then taken Perine (or if he was off the table, then a guy like Marlon Mack) at 123, I would be A LOT happier. That would be maximizing their draft power AND getting players that would fill needs.

Also, are you actually suggesting that RB is a higher need than LG? If that's the case, should be happy we ended up with a guy who is basically Rob Kelley?

Quote:
Just be happy we drafted a good, tough prospect at running back who has a nose for the endzone and is good at getting the tough yards like Alfred Morris was and we still have a good prospect in Kouandijo developing at OG who's been in the system now for 3 years and could have developed into our starting LG for this season. I think Kouandijo will push Lauvao for the starting LG spot this year and if not this year, he'll be our starter next year at Lg.


So, what you are saying is that I should be happy that we took a short yardage back instead of improving our left guard spot because a guy who we took three years ago will stumble into the starting role simply because the guy who is ahead of him likely will not be re-signed? Yay ... Rolling Eyes

As I have said before, I like the Perine selection from who we got as a player. But that is taking the guy out of the context where he was drafted. If we're going to celebrate things going well like Allen inexplicably falling to the Redskins at 17, we also have to acknowledge when the front office makes a poor decision by locking in on one guy.
As for the last few sentences, we do not know right now that Johnson is better than Kouandijo other than some grade that some what, mock drafters did? We don't know that Kouandijo won't be our future starter, heck, he may even beat out Lauvao this year. I don't think we drafted a G/C before Roullier because our coaching staff has faith in the guy's we have except we didn't have a back up center.

It could very well be the case that Johnson will be way better and it could be the case that Johnson and those others end up being better than Perine, who knows for sure.

I still think that Perine will be the second most impactful player we take in this draft, at least for a few years. Perine is a better version of the guys we've had over the last 6 years since Portis retired IMHO. I think he's more than going to prove his worth, even more so than some of those guys who the mock draft guy's may have given a slightly better grade.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Bill Callahan designs the run scheme and calls the run plays. Before Callahan was hired, we had a good full back - Darrell Young - and when that full back was healthy our running game was productive and extremely efficient.


We also had arguably one of the best running back coaches in the NFL in Mike Shanahan.

Quote:
Ever since Callahan was hired, our OL has gotten bigger, better and been developed better but our running game has gotten worse. We haven't had a true fullback - because Callahan doesn't use one - and we haven't had good blocking TEs and our running game has gone from being great in 2012 & 13 to good in 2014 to below average each of the last two years with Callahan being the running game coordinator.


Were those decisions due to Callahan's planning or due to Gruden and McVay wanting to focus on the pass more? Correct me if I'm wrong, but McVay was the one calling in the plays on a regular basis over the past two years.

Quote:
I'm not saying get rid of Callahan right now, but we have to get better results out of his running scheme than we've been getting the last two years. If we don't get better results out of his running game then, in the future he will be gone.


And improving the blocking at our weakest position on the offensive line would arguably do more to augment our run game than adding another RB.

Quote:
If Callahan is eventually gone, we should go back to having a true fullback which, is what Jay Gruden always had in his offense and used a lot when he had Darrell Young in both the passing game and running game.


1. If Gruden wants to carry a FB, he just says carry a FB. He's the head coach after all.
2.
2011 Bengals = Chris Pressley (15 GP, 10 GS)
2012 Bengals = Chris Pressley (14 GP, 7 GS)
2013 Bengals - no fullback listed

(the previous four years, a fullback played 16 games for the Bengals)

So, it's not accurate to say that Gruden always used a fullback. As for usage, Pressley was targeted in the passing game eight times in two years (catching the ball four times). He did not have a carry for the Bengals under Gruden.
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
As for the last few sentences, we do not know right now that Johnson is better than Kouandijo other than some grade that some what, mock drafters did?


Can we agree that in all likelihood the people who grade prospects for NFL.com are not just some "mock drafters?"

Quote:
We don't know that Kouandijo won't be our future starter, heck, he may even beat out Lauvao this year.


Kouandjio has started two games (both last year). The only reason he was starting was Lauvao was hurt. He's only played in 8 games over the past two years. He has shown little to think that he'll beat out Lauvao, who is our weakest starter. To expect him to win out this year (outside of injury) is to be very optimistic.

Quote:
I don't think we drafted a G/C before Roullier because our coaching staff has faith in the guy's we have except we didn't have a back up center.


And a backup center could easily be found as a UDFA, as opposed to spending a sixth round pick on.

Quote:
It could very well be the case that Johnson will be way better and it could be the case that Johnson and those others end up being better than Perine, who knows for sure.

I still think that Perine will be the second most impactful player we take in this draft, at least for a few years. Perine is a better version of the guys we've had over the last 6 years since Portis retired. I think he's more than going to prove his work, even more so than some of those guys who the mock draft guy's may have given a slightly better grade.


He's a running back. Chances are better that he's out of the league in four years or less. That's not a commentary on Perine as a prospect, but on the position in general. A guard is probably going to be more valuable to the team in general because of the durability of the players at that position.

Maybe he'll be good but the odds are not in his favor for being the second most impactful player in this draft class, barring injuries.
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