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CalhounLambeau 2017 NFL Draft Review Thread 1st-6th*
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CalhounLambeau


Joined: 05 May 2011
Posts: 11531
Location: WI
PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My pre-evaluation grades are just me throwing them into a round after brief viewing after determining they're worthwhile to evaluate later. So the round I have a player in prior to my evaluation doesn't really matter.
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VanS


Joined: 21 Apr 2016
Posts: 344
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
My pre-evaluation grades are just me throwing them into a round after brief viewing after determining they're worthwhile to evaluate later. So the round I have a player in prior to my evaluation doesn't really matter.


Or you're just falling in line with what most other people have them rated by the time the draft rolls around?

I just don't see how you can go from thinking Cameron Sutton is a 1st round prospect a year ago to a 3rd rounder by the time the draft rolls around. Especially considering the fact he was injured for most of his senior season so its not like any of the tape he put out there in 2016 is anymore useful in evaluating him as a prospect. Coincidentally the 3rd round is right about where everyone else has him rated before the draft and where he was ultimately drafted.

I personally hate the herd mentality when it comes to the draft. Everyone is so afraid of being wrong that they'll just agree with what most other people are saying. That way if they're wrong, its okay because everyone else was also wrong.

The whole exercise is kind of a waste if all we do is agree with the consensus on almost everything and then stray out there once and awhile about one prospect we like a lot. Remember this is not a science. If all we do is agree with the consensus, it gives off the false image that evaluating prospects is a science when it couldn't be further from the truth.
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TheRealMcCoy


Joined: 12 Aug 2011
Posts: 14700
Location: Inland Empire
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You were more complimentary of 1st round picks than I thought you would be for some reason.

Looking forward to your thoughts on the other rounds.
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CalhounLambeau


Joined: 05 May 2011
Posts: 11531
Location: WI
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VanS wrote:
I just don't see how you can go from thinking Cameron Sutton is a 1st round prospect a year ago to a 3rd rounder by the time the draft rolls around.

I've already explained it's just a loose grade after quickly watching a couple of cuts. It doesn't matter. You're too caught up on the round. Move on.
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DraftHobbyist


Joined: 17 Aug 2014
Posts: 349
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VanS wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
My pre-evaluation grades are just me throwing them into a round after brief viewing after determining they're worthwhile to evaluate later. So the round I have a player in prior to my evaluation doesn't really matter.


Or you're just falling in line with what most other people have them rated by the time the draft rolls around?


I just don't see how you can go from thinking Cameron Sutton is a 1st round prospect a year ago to a 3rd rounder by the time the draft rolls around. Especially considering the fact he was injured for most of his senior season so its not like any of the tape he put out there in 2016 is anymore useful in evaluating him as a prospect. Coincidentally the 3rd round is right about where everyone else has him rated before the draft and where he was ultimately drafted.

I personally hate the herd mentality when it comes to the draft. Everyone is so afraid of being wrong that they'll just agree with what most other people are saying. That way if they're wrong, its okay because everyone else was also wrong.

The whole exercise is kind of a waste if all we do is agree with the consensus on almost everything and then stray out there once and awhile about one prospect we like a lot. Remember this is not a science. If all we do is agree with the consensus, it gives off the false image that evaluating prospects is a science when it couldn't be further from the truth.


*Ding ding ding*
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 68411
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VanS wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
My pre-evaluation grades are just me throwing them into a round after brief viewing after determining they're worthwhile to evaluate later. So the round I have a player in prior to my evaluation doesn't really matter.


Or you're just falling in line with what most other people have them rated by the time the draft rolls around?

I just don't see how you can go from thinking Cameron Sutton is a 1st round prospect a year ago to a 3rd rounder by the time the draft rolls around. Especially considering the fact he was injured for most of his senior season so its not like any of the tape he put out there in 2016 is anymore useful in evaluating him as a prospect. Coincidentally the 3rd round is right about where everyone else has him rated before the draft and where he was ultimately drafted.

I personally hate the herd mentality when it comes to the draft. Everyone is so afraid of being wrong that they'll just agree with what most other people are saying. That way if they're wrong, its okay because everyone else was also wrong.

The whole exercise is kind of a waste if all we do is agree with the consensus on almost everything and then stray out there once and awhile about one prospect we like a lot. Remember this is not a science. If all we do is agree with the consensus, it gives off the false image that evaluating prospects is a science when it couldn't be further from the truth.


To some extent, this is true. But you go way too far in the other direction.

I'm not commenting on Calhoun's process, though.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honestly, CL gives his thoughts, lets his process be open for all to see, and shows his work. He even keeps the work for others to see for many years. There's always room to learn and improve - but maybe understand the work / record / transparency, and recognize the good that comes with any potential issues, too. If there's an issue that's identifiable, by all means, have a discussion. But if there's a simple explanation and it's not a pattern that's apparent, well, jeez.

It's totally fine to criticize, it's how we learn, and it's absolutely necessary - but let's be balanced in the criticism, too. I'd like to hear if there's a reason for Player X, or Player Y, but let's face it, pre-evaluation grades are the most variable people are going to see - it's like taking a talent evaluator to task for their grading in December, then changing it as they see more film, Combine work for a measure of their athletic skills, and more film as it becomes available.

For example, many evaluators would have pegged Zay Jones as a "great football but limited athleticism" from his tape and how he was used in his O in early January - the Senior Bowl and Combine sure changed those perceptions. It sure did with me (and FTR, I tend to go with tape over Combine, but that's just one notable example, I'm sure there are many others).
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CalhounLambeau


Joined: 05 May 2011
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Broncofan wrote:
Honestly, CL gives his thoughts, lets his process be open for all to see, and shows his work. He even keeps the work for others to see for many years.

I appreciate it. You don't have to defend me. Most of the people that have been here a while get what I do. I don't have to have to defend myself to couple people who have only been here a few months, haven't posted anything and can't acknowledge that my rankings have many contradictions from the majority.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Honestly, CL gives his thoughts, lets his process be open for all to see, and shows his work. He even keeps the work for others to see for many years.

I appreciate it. You don't have to defend me. Most of the people that have been here a while get what I do. I don't have to have to defend myself to couple people who have only been here a few months, haven't posted anything and can't acknowledge that my rankings have many contradictions from the majority.


You were one of the guys who turned me on to Forrest Lamp back when the media had him rated as a 7th round pick early in the year. People have a selective memory. Sometimes, that's good. Sometimes, that's bad.
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CalhounLambeau


Joined: 05 May 2011
Posts: 11531
Location: WI
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Honestly, CL gives his thoughts, lets his process be open for all to see, and shows his work. He even keeps the work for others to see for many years.

I appreciate it. You don't have to defend me. Most of the people that have been here a while get what I do. I don't have to have to defend myself to couple people who have only been here a few months, haven't posted anything and can't acknowledge that my rankings have many contradictions from the majority.


You were one of the guys who turned me on to Forrest Lamp back when the media had him rated as a 7th round pick early in the year. People have a selective memory. Sometimes, that's good. Sometimes, that's bad.

You shouldn't listen to me Jrry, I'm a fraud.
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Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 224
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

VanS wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
My pre-evaluation grades are just me throwing them into a round after brief viewing after determining they're worthwhile to evaluate later. So the round I have a player in prior to my evaluation doesn't really matter.


Or you're just falling in line with what most other people have them rated by the time the draft rolls around?

I just don't see how you can go from thinking Cameron Sutton is a 1st round prospect a year ago to a 3rd rounder by the time the draft rolls around. Especially considering the fact he was injured for most of his senior season so its not like any of the tape he put out there in 2016 is anymore useful in evaluating him as a prospect. Coincidentally the 3rd round is right about where everyone else has him rated before the draft and where he was ultimately drafted.

I personally hate the herd mentality when it comes to the draft. Everyone is so afraid of being wrong that they'll just agree with what most other people are saying. That way if they're wrong, its okay because everyone else was also wrong.

Quote:
In the end, the draft itself is the report card on how draftniks rated prospects. Once the draft takes place, draftnik's thoughts on each prospect no longer carry much weight. Only where a prospect is actually drafted means a whole lot.


The whole exercise is kind of a waste if all we do is agree with the consensus on almost everything and then stray out there once and awhile about one prospect we like a lot. Remember this is not a science. If all we do is agree with the consensus, it gives off the false image that evaluating prospects is a science when it couldn't be further from the truth.


Quote:
In a way, the draft is a science, just not a very accurate one, with a high degree of incorrectness. Each team scouts prospects thoroughly, using all their acquired knowledge of what is required to play the position, what is most difficult to project, is the true character of each prospect and how much he really wants to succeed. In this science, we also have to remember that not all scouts, GM's, and HC's are equal in their ability to ascertain talent, the variances is really amazing. That is why every successful team starts with a solid owner who can spot FO and HCing talent, he is far more likely to hire a FO that can assess talent and Hcing ability.


There is no doubt that the draft is a crapshoot, but I am always amazed at how many flops are drafted by weak organizations vs strong organizations. There is a significant difference in the failure rate of poorly run teams vs well run teams.
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Fureys49ers


Joined: 31 Mar 2015
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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ ive always believed it's more so the coaching, developing and usage of these players more so than the actual players talents. Those successful teams no how to use these prospects in their system to be successful, unsuccessful teams are banking on these players be studs already which almost always a recipe for disaster as even the most talented prospects need help. This is especially true for the mid rounders down.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Tue May 09, 2017 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fureys49ers wrote:
^ ive always believed it's more so the coaching, developing and usage of these players more so than the actual players talents. Those successful teams know how to use these prospects in their system to be successful, unsuccessful teams are banking on these players be studs already which almost always a recipe for disaster as even the most talented prospects need help. This is especially true for the mid rounders down.


To some extent, better teams ID talent and find ways to use them to their max potential. That's a fair statement for sure. But, if you have a kid who's 100 percent coachable, dedicated, but doesn't have the elite measurable skills (speed, strength, agility, hand-eye coordination, body control) that are needed to succeed at that position, at least at the minimum threshold - well, then, those prospects will still fail.

You can coach up a kid whose physically talented enough to play in the NFL. You can't give the skills necessary to a player who can be coached up but doesn't have the skills. The problem is you usually need both talent and coachability (for lack of a better term) to succeed in the NFL (but the 2nd is partly dependent on the team and player, not just the player, whereas the 1st is solely dependent on the player - identifying the guys with that talent & coachability is on the team).
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This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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Bald_81


Joined: 14 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2017 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So.... is this ever going to get done?
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CalhounLambeau


Joined: 05 May 2011
Posts: 11531
Location: WI
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll get the second round up this weekend.
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