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#2...QB...Mitch Trubisky...North Carolina
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wiscbearsfan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
My god people. This is nearly bewildering. If you trade all of your picks away you have a zero percent chance of those picks becoming a contributor.

And the Bears took a major risk with Trubisky. None of this looks like a blueprint for success.


The only guarantee of not having success in the NFL is not having a QB.

This absolutely looks like a blue print for success. You keep drafting and developing a QB till you have a top 10 guy.

Any other plan is treading water and hoping to get lucky.


I absolutely agree that you need to keep drafting and developing QB's but I would take it a step further and say that even when you get your top 10 guy that you continue drafting and developing QB's. That's what smart teams do.

Ryan Pace has so far in his GM career with the Bears completely ignored the position until now when he pulled this move off. You can call it ballsy and congratulate him for having the stones to do it. But you can look at it without the rose colored glasses and say it was also pretty darn reckless. This type of decision making looks a lot more like the decision making that stupid franchises make. How many times have you sat back and laughed at teams like the Jaguars, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, etc that seem to perpetually chase their savior only to repeatedly come up empty with their high draft picks and then become stuck in a cycle of being bad to mediocre?

I'm not saying that Trubisky is going to fail. I pray he works out and becomes an elite NFL QB. But on paper this looks a lot more like the dumb teams not the smart ones.
Wisc, how does this look like a dumb move. Is it bc of the trade? It was probably the best trade up for a QB value wise in the last 25 years. Is it bc you don't like Trubisky? Watson was my #1 but I am not a professional evaluator, so I will defer to those who are. The professional evaluator consensus seems to be that Trubisky was the top QB in this draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. We haven't had this kind of hammer to swing in a long time. I'm really not sure what your issue with the move is. It was smart GMing all around.
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dll2000


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
My god people. This is nearly bewildering. If you trade all of your picks away you have a zero percent chance of those picks becoming a contributor.

And the Bears took a major risk with Trubisky. None of this looks like a blueprint for success.


The only guarantee of not having success in the NFL is not having a QB.

This absolutely looks like a blue print for success. You keep drafting and developing a QB till you have a top 10 guy.

Any other plan is treading water and hoping to get lucky.


I absolutely agree that you need to keep drafting and developing QB's but I would take it a step further and say that even when you get your top 10 guy that you continue drafting and developing QB's. That's what smart teams do.

Ryan Pace has so far in his GM career with the Bears completely ignored the position until now when he pulled this move off. You can call it ballsy and congratulate him for having the stones to do it. But you can look at it without the rose colored glasses and say it was also pretty darn reckless. This type of decision making looks a lot more like the decision making that stupid franchises make. How many times have you sat back and laughed at teams like the Jaguars, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, etc that seem to perpetually chase their savior only to repeatedly come up empty with their high draft picks and then become stuck in a cycle of being bad to mediocre?

I'm not saying that Trubisky is going to fail. I pray he works out and becomes an elite NFL QB. But on paper this looks a lot more like the dumb teams not the smart ones.
Wisc, how does this look like a dumb move. Is it bc of the trade? It was probably the best trade up for a QB value wise in the last 25 years. Is it bc you don't like Trubisky? Watson was my #1 but I am not a professional evaluator, so I will defer to those who are. The professional evaluator consensus seems to be that Trubisky was the top QB in this draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. We haven't had this kind of hammer to swing in a long time. I'm really not sure what your issue with the move is. It was smart GMing all around.


The professional QB evaluators are wrong about 50% of time with top 3 picks. Much worse with lower picks. But its not enitely to their credit or fault. For a QB to succeed he has to have opportunity, talent, fast proseessing ability, coaching, tons of meaningful reps, drive to put all else second, continuity early in his career and talent around him and on defense.

A lot of things have to align for a QB to have successful career. It doesnt just happen because of ability alone.
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G08


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
My god people. This is nearly bewildering. If you trade all of your picks away you have a zero percent chance of those picks becoming a contributor.

And the Bears took a major risk with Trubisky. None of this looks like a blueprint for success.


The only guarantee of not having success in the NFL is not having a QB.

This absolutely looks like a blue print for success. You keep drafting and developing a QB till you have a top 10 guy.

Any other plan is treading water and hoping to get lucky.


I absolutely agree that you need to keep drafting and developing QB's but I would take it a step further and say that even when you get your top 10 guy that you continue drafting and developing QB's. That's what smart teams do.

Ryan Pace has so far in his GM career with the Bears completely ignored the position until now when he pulled this move off. You can call it ballsy and congratulate him for having the stones to do it. But you can look at it without the rose colored glasses and say it was also pretty darn reckless. This type of decision making looks a lot more like the decision making that stupid franchises make. How many times have you sat back and laughed at teams like the Jaguars, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, etc that seem to perpetually chase their savior only to repeatedly come up empty with their high draft picks and then become stuck in a cycle of being bad to mediocre?

I'm not saying that Trubisky is going to fail. I pray he works out and becomes an elite NFL QB. But on paper this looks a lot more like the dumb teams not the smart ones.
Wisc, how does this look like a dumb move. Is it bc of the trade? It was probably the best trade up for a QB value wise in the last 25 years. Is it bc you don't like Trubisky? Watson was my #1 but I am not a professional evaluator, so I will defer to those who are. The professional evaluator consensus seems to be that Trubisky was the top QB in this draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. We haven't had this kind of hammer to swing in a long time. I'm really not sure what your issue with the move is. It was smart GMing all around.


Trubisky has all the physical and leadership traits that you want in a franchise QB, work ethic as well.

Question is... can we coach him up correctly in the best scheme fit for his abilities? That's what gives me pause for concern.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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51to54


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The math is pretty simple for Trubisky and Pace.

Worst record and highest draft position since the 1970's. Don't waste it on drafting the BPA who happens to be a punter, etc. Known since Sun Tzu's "Art of War". Use your best for the most important task, ergo, use highest draft pick in decades for the most important position in sports.

If Trubisky is a top 10 QB, the deal will be a good to great success even if involved a first round pick. If Trubisky is a poor QB then the pick was bad even if we didn't move up.
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess my biggest question for people criticizing the trade does it make any difference in the end? If Trubisky is a top 10 qb in 3-5 years does anybody care about the trade at that point? If he busts would it b any less of a bust if they waited until 3? To truly criticize the move you have to take a stance that he wasnt the consensus top qb in the draft, which he clearly was. Does anyone really believe that mike glennon was going to lead the bears back to the superbowl? I saw the 2nd greatest bears defense of my lifetime get to the superbowl and lose in part bc of the qb and they havent been back since. I want win multiple championships. I want the bears to b automatic contenders every year. The only way thats going to happen is to finally fix the qb position.
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wiscbearsfan


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dll2000 wrote:
Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
My god people. This is nearly bewildering. If you trade all of your picks away you have a zero percent chance of those picks becoming a contributor.

And the Bears took a major risk with Trubisky. None of this looks like a blueprint for success.


The only guarantee of not having success in the NFL is not having a QB.

This absolutely looks like a blue print for success. You keep drafting and developing a QB till you have a top 10 guy.

Any other plan is treading water and hoping to get lucky.


I absolutely agree that you need to keep drafting and developing QB's but I would take it a step further and say that even when you get your top 10 guy that you continue drafting and developing QB's. That's what smart teams do.

Ryan Pace has so far in his GM career with the Bears completely ignored the position until now when he pulled this move off. You can call it ballsy and congratulate him for having the stones to do it. But you can look at it without the rose colored glasses and say it was also pretty darn reckless. This type of decision making looks a lot more like the decision making that stupid franchises make. How many times have you sat back and laughed at teams like the Jaguars, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, etc that seem to perpetually chase their savior only to repeatedly come up empty with their high draft picks and then become stuck in a cycle of being bad to mediocre?

I'm not saying that Trubisky is going to fail. I pray he works out and becomes an elite NFL QB. But on paper this looks a lot more like the dumb teams not the smart ones.
Wisc, how does this look like a dumb move. Is it bc of the trade? It was probably the best trade up for a QB value wise in the last 25 years. Is it bc you don't like Trubisky? Watson was my #1 but I am not a professional evaluator, so I will defer to those who are. The professional evaluator consensus seems to be that Trubisky was the top QB in this draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. We haven't had this kind of hammer to swing in a long time. I'm really not sure what your issue with the move is. It was smart GMing all around.


The professional QB evaluators are wrong about 50% of time with top 3 picks. Much worse with lower picks. But its not enitely to their credit or fault. For a QB to succeed he has to have opportunity, talent, fast proseessing ability, coaching, tons of meaningful reps, drive to put all else second, continuity early in his career and talent around him and on defense.

A lot of things have to align for a QB to have successful career. It doesnt just happen because of ability alone.


I don't know what the numbers are specifically, but I know that there is a low success rate of QB's working out anywhere in the draft. Obviously the later in the draft you get the lower the success rate becomes. But that doesn't mean that high picks are the way to go either. There are a ton of top 3-5 picks that end up just average and frankly that's almost as bad as being a flat out bust. With a big st tou move on to the next. With average you hang on and hope they can put it all together but before you know it four or five years have passed and you aren't where you want to be.

Just look at the past several years. How does everyone feel right now about Jared Goff and Carson Wentz? How about James Winston and Marcus Mariota? Blake Bortles? Andrew Luck and RGIII? Heck, throw Tannehill into that mix just for grins. Who's elite? Who's a bust? Who's average? Which of these teams is markedly improved because they took a QB that high? Who's worse?

What I specifically dislike about what the Bears did involves risk mitigation or their ignorance of it in this case. Taking Trubisky carries a severe level of risk even without the trade and the loss of additional assets.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only thing worse than your QB draft pick busting out....

Is not having a QB at all and the only way to get one if to try in the draft.

Mariota
Winston
Luck
Carr
Wentz

Immediately made those teams relevant.
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Tyty


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
The only thing worse than your QB draft pick busting out....

Is not having a QB at all and the only way to get one if to try in the draft.

Mariota
Winston
Luck
Carr
Wentz

Immediately made those teams relevant.


yeah the Colts were so irrelevant before Luck
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Heinz D.


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wiscbearsfan wrote:
I don't know what the numbers are specifically, but I know that there is a low success rate of QB's working out anywhere in the draft. Obviously the later in the draft you get the lower the success rate becomes. But that doesn't mean that high picks are the way to go either.

This, literally, makes no sense whatsoever. Is the answer, then, to accumulate as many undrafted free agent quarterbacks as you can, and then hope one of them pans out?

wiscbearsfan wrote:
Just look at the past several years. How does everyone feel right now about Jared Goff and Carson Wentz? How about James Winston and Marcus Mariota? Blake Bortles? Andrew Luck and RGIII? Heck, throw Tannehill into that mix just for grins. Who's elite? Who's a bust? Who's average? Which of these teams is markedly improved because they took a QB that high? Who's worse?

Goff looked incredibly shaky, but he was on a weird, terribly mismananged team. We'll see what happens going forward, Wentz looked pretty solid. One season does not a career make, but it seems like the Eagles hit on that one. Winston and Mariota look like they're going to be real franchise quarterbacks (and both have been better than what the Bears have been putting out there for years). Bortles may not pan out, but he's shown more than enough to justify the Jaguars taking him when they did. He's far from a Jamarcus Russell, or something. I think Luck is overrated, but he still seems like a starting QB in the league. RGIII was OROTY then fell off a cliff because he refused to tailor his game to the NFL, and suffered brutal injury after brutal injury. By all indications, Tanehill will be at least a capable starter in the league. So...to answer your underlying question--the jury's still out on Goff and Bortles, but Bortles still improved the Jaguars' quarterback play.

Which means--one failure, two incompletes, and five successes.

wiscbearsfan wrote:
What I specifically dislike about what the Bears did involves risk mitigation or their ignorance of it in this case. Taking Trubisky carries a severe level of risk even without the trade and the loss of additional assets.

It's always a risk. But this isn't the Vikings drafting Ponder, for cryin' out loud. And how is the loss of a third and a fourth--while keeping your first and second the following year--a big deal?
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wiscbearsfan wrote:
dll2000 wrote:
Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
My god people. This is nearly bewildering. If you trade all of your picks away you have a zero percent chance of those picks becoming a contributor.

And the Bears took a major risk with Trubisky. None of this looks like a blueprint for success.


The only guarantee of not having success in the NFL is not having a QB.

This absolutely looks like a blue print for success. You keep drafting and developing a QB till you have a top 10 guy.

Any other plan is treading water and hoping to get lucky.


I absolutely agree that you need to keep drafting and developing QB's but I would take it a step further and say that even when you get your top 10 guy that you continue drafting and developing QB's. That's what smart teams do.

Ryan Pace has so far in his GM career with the Bears completely ignored the position until now when he pulled this move off. You can call it ballsy and congratulate him for having the stones to do it. But you can look at it without the rose colored glasses and say it was also pretty darn reckless. This type of decision making looks a lot more like the decision making that stupid franchises make. How many times have you sat back and laughed at teams like the Jaguars, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, etc that seem to perpetually chase their savior only to repeatedly come up empty with their high draft picks and then become stuck in a cycle of being bad to mediocre?

I'm not saying that Trubisky is going to fail. I pray he works out and becomes an elite NFL QB. But on paper this looks a lot more like the dumb teams not the smart ones.
Wisc, how does this look like a dumb move. Is it bc of the trade? It was probably the best trade up for a QB value wise in the last 25 years. Is it bc you don't like Trubisky? Watson was my #1 but I am not a professional evaluator, so I will defer to those who are. The professional evaluator consensus seems to be that Trubisky was the top QB in this draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. We haven't had this kind of hammer to swing in a long time. I'm really not sure what your issue with the move is. It was smart GMing all around.


The professional QB evaluators are wrong about 50% of time with top 3 picks. Much worse with lower picks. But its not enitely to their credit or fault. For a QB to succeed he has to have opportunity, talent, fast proseessing ability, coaching, tons of meaningful reps, drive to put all else second, continuity early in his career and talent around him and on defense.

A lot of things have to align for a QB to have successful career. It doesnt just happen because of ability alone.


I don't know what the numbers are specifically, but I know that there is a low success rate of QB's working out anywhere in the draft. Obviously the later in the draft you get the lower the success rate becomes. But that doesn't mean that high picks are the way to go either. There are a ton of top 3-5 picks that end up just average and frankly that's almost as bad as being a flat out bust. With a big st tou move on to the next. With average you hang on and hope they can put it all together but before you know it four or five years have passed and you aren't where you want to be.

Just look at the past several years. How does everyone feel right now about Jared Goff and Carson Wentz? How about James Winston and Marcus Mariota? Blake Bortles? Andrew Luck and RGIII? Heck, throw Tannehill into that mix just for grins. Who's elite? Who's a bust? Who's average? Which of these teams is markedly improved because they took a QB that high? Who's worse?

What I specifically dislike about what the Bears did involves risk mitigation or their ignorance of it in this case. Taking Trubisky carries a severe level of risk even without the trade and the loss of additional assets.
Wisc, the numbers are 50% in the top 3 picks and it only goes down from there. How would you fix the Bears QB position if you are unwilling to draft them? I'm sorry, I'm trying to understand your position, we've both been here for a long time, is your issue with the trade, or with the pick? Or do you REALLY believe that you shouldn't draft a QB? Your point you were trying to make with Goff, Wentz, Winston & Mariota kind of proves the rest of our point. 1 guy is already considered to be top tier and on the verge of elite. Another is looking like a real franchise QB, a 3rd had a very solid rookie year, and one who didn't play most of the year and probably wasn't handled correctly at all. That's 3/4 which to paraphrase Meatloaf, ain't bad.
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tyty wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
The only thing worse than your QB draft pick busting out....

Is not having a QB at all and the only way to get one if to try in the draft.

Mariota
Winston
Luck
Carr
Wentz

Immediately made those teams relevant.


yeah the Colts were so irrelevant before Luck
The colts and Luck kind of prove exactly what he was saying when you really think about it. The colts were relevant bc they had one of, if not the greatest QB of all time. He goes down for the year, and they end up as the worst team in the league and get the #1 overall pick. They draft a QB, and they are right back in playoff contention with a bad roster composed by a terrible GM.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 8:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tyty wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
The only thing worse than your QB draft pick busting out....

Is not having a QB at all and the only way to get one if to try in the draft.

Mariota
Winston
Luck
Carr
Wentz

Immediately made those teams relevant.


yeah the Colts were so irrelevant before Luck


They were 2-14 with a horrendous defense.

They drafted Luck and went to the playoffs the next season.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CSN Chicago

Quote:

Two AFC scouts revealed that they had the highest grade on Trubisky that they’d had on any quarterback over the past six years. That means: higher than Jameis Winston; higher than Marcus Mariota; higher than Cam Newton; higher than Russell Wilson; higher than Andrew Luck; higher than Derek Carr; higher than Carson Wentz.


The evaluation of one NFC regional scouting team was that “Trubisky is an almost perfect quarterback prospect” and that 'the Bears should count their lucky stars he only started 13 games because if he was a two-year starter, he goes 1/1 [overall No. 1] without hesitation.”

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wiscbearsfan


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
dll2000 wrote:
Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
My god people. This is nearly bewildering. If you trade all of your picks away you have a zero percent chance of those picks becoming a contributor.

And the Bears took a major risk with Trubisky. None of this looks like a blueprint for success.


The only guarantee of not having success in the NFL is not having a QB.

This absolutely looks like a blue print for success. You keep drafting and developing a QB till you have a top 10 guy.

Any other plan is treading water and hoping to get lucky.


I absolutely agree that you need to keep drafting and developing QB's but I would take it a step further and say that even when you get your top 10 guy that you continue drafting and developing QB's. That's what smart teams do.

Ryan Pace has so far in his GM career with the Bears completely ignored the position until now when he pulled this move off. You can call it ballsy and congratulate him for having the stones to do it. But you can look at it without the rose colored glasses and say it was also pretty darn reckless. This type of decision making looks a lot more like the decision making that stupid franchises make. How many times have you sat back and laughed at teams like the Jaguars, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, etc that seem to perpetually chase their savior only to repeatedly come up empty with their high draft picks and then become stuck in a cycle of being bad to mediocre?

I'm not saying that Trubisky is going to fail. I pray he works out and becomes an elite NFL QB. But on paper this looks a lot more like the dumb teams not the smart ones.
Wisc, how does this look like a dumb move. Is it bc of the trade? It was probably the best trade up for a QB value wise in the last 25 years. Is it bc you don't like Trubisky? Watson was my #1 but I am not a professional evaluator, so I will defer to those who are. The professional evaluator consensus seems to be that Trubisky was the top QB in this draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. We haven't had this kind of hammer to swing in a long time. I'm really not sure what your issue with the move is. It was smart GMing all around.


The professional QB evaluators are wrong about 50% of time with top 3 picks. Much worse with lower picks. But its not enitely to their credit or fault. For a QB to succeed he has to have opportunity, talent, fast proseessing ability, coaching, tons of meaningful reps, drive to put all else second, continuity early in his career and talent around him and on defense.

A lot of things have to align for a QB to have successful career. It doesnt just happen because of ability alone.


I don't know what the numbers are specifically, but I know that there is a low success rate of QB's working out anywhere in the draft. Obviously the later in the draft you get the lower the success rate becomes. But that doesn't mean that high picks are the way to go either. There are a ton of top 3-5 picks that end up just average and frankly that's almost as bad as being a flat out bust. With a big st tou move on to the next. With average you hang on and hope they can put it all together but before you know it four or five years have passed and you aren't where you want to be.

Just look at the past several years. How does everyone feel right now about Jared Goff and Carson Wentz? How about James Winston and Marcus Mariota? Blake Bortles? Andrew Luck and RGIII? Heck, throw Tannehill into that mix just for grins. Who's elite? Who's a bust? Who's average? Which of these teams is markedly improved because they took a QB that high? Who's worse?

What I specifically dislike about what the Bears did involves risk mitigation or their ignorance of it in this case. Taking Trubisky carries a severe level of risk even without the trade and the loss of additional assets.
Wisc, the numbers are 50% in the top 3 picks and it only goes down from there. How would you fix the Bears QB position if you are unwilling to draft them? I'm sorry, I'm trying to understand your position, we've both been here for a long time, is your issue with the trade, or with the pick? Or do you REALLY believe that you shouldn't draft a QB? Your point you were trying to make with Goff, Wentz, Winston & Mariota kind of proves the rest of our point. 1 guy is already considered to be top tier and on the verge of elite. Another is looking like a real franchise QB, a 3rd had a very solid rookie year, and one who didn't play most of the year and probably wasn't handled correctly at all. That's 3/4 which to paraphrase Meatloaf, ain't bad.


Here's where I'm at. The McCaskey's are bad sports owners. They don't have a clue of how to create or sustain a successful organization. When the Ricketts family bought the Cubs they brought in one of, if not the very best baseball executive in the game. They set about completely changing the entire culture surrounding the Cubs. That move will go down in history as one the greatest sports success stories of all time.

Meanwhile the McCaskeys continue to employ Ted Phillips, who is not a football guy, in a prominent executive position because he navigated their stadium renovation and made them a bunch of money at the time. Problem with that is that Soldier Field has numerous issues including the mess with the playing surface / parks district pissing match, a tiny seating capacity for a market this size, amongst other things. Organizationally speaking they have engineered a complete train wreck of a situation for most of the past 3 decades.

When they hired Ryan Pace I was once again extremely optimistic that the right kind of change was taking place but he quickly lost my faith based upon his various draft picks and free agency moves. Please show me the great moves Ryan Pace has made. And in light of this preceding discussion you have to completely omit the drafting of Jordan Howard from your examples. Why? Because every single person who is supportive of the trade and pick of Trubisky repeatedly justifies the pick based upon the fact they only gave up 3rd and 4th round picks. I keep seeing those picks discounted entirely by people who want to write them off as inconsequential. Well you don't get it both ways. They are either unimportant or they matter. So leave Jordan Howard out of this and tell me what Ryan Pace has done well so far in his tenancy as GM.

I want Mitch Trubisky to be a superstar. I truly do, because I'm sick of the Bears being a complete and utter joke of a franchise. This draft strategy is essentially all or nothing. If Trubisky is a hit then all they need to do is pit the rest of the team around him (which I have little faith in them being able to do either) or he's a miss and the Bears continue to suck for a decade.

A decade? Yeah, pretty close. Pace has a minimum of 3 years now for Trubisky to pan out but I could easily see him showing flashes and Pace being given more time. But if they pull the plug on him then you are probably another 3-4 years away as you "rebuild" yet again.

This is all probably on the extreme end but I'm sick of the clown show. The McCaskeys are clueless morons. Ted Philips is a joke. The franchise has become a laughingstock. Pace has done very little to provide optimism for the future no matter how good of a game he talks.
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Superman(DH23)


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PostPosted: Sat May 13, 2017 8:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wiscbearsfan wrote:
Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
dll2000 wrote:
Superman(DH23) wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
wiscbearsfan wrote:
My god people. This is nearly bewildering. If you trade all of your picks away you have a zero percent chance of those picks becoming a contributor.

And the Bears took a major risk with Trubisky. None of this looks like a blueprint for success.


The only guarantee of not having success in the NFL is not having a QB.

This absolutely looks like a blue print for success. You keep drafting and developing a QB till you have a top 10 guy.

Any other plan is treading water and hoping to get lucky.


I absolutely agree that you need to keep drafting and developing QB's but I would take it a step further and say that even when you get your top 10 guy that you continue drafting and developing QB's. That's what smart teams do.

Ryan Pace has so far in his GM career with the Bears completely ignored the position until now when he pulled this move off. You can call it ballsy and congratulate him for having the stones to do it. But you can look at it without the rose colored glasses and say it was also pretty darn reckless. This type of decision making looks a lot more like the decision making that stupid franchises make. How many times have you sat back and laughed at teams like the Jaguars, Browns, Jets, Dolphins, etc that seem to perpetually chase their savior only to repeatedly come up empty with their high draft picks and then become stuck in a cycle of being bad to mediocre?

I'm not saying that Trubisky is going to fail. I pray he works out and becomes an elite NFL QB. But on paper this looks a lot more like the dumb teams not the smart ones.
Wisc, how does this look like a dumb move. Is it bc of the trade? It was probably the best trade up for a QB value wise in the last 25 years. Is it bc you don't like Trubisky? Watson was my #1 but I am not a professional evaluator, so I will defer to those who are. The professional evaluator consensus seems to be that Trubisky was the top QB in this draft and worthy of a top 5 pick. We haven't had this kind of hammer to swing in a long time. I'm really not sure what your issue with the move is. It was smart GMing all around.


The professional QB evaluators are wrong about 50% of time with top 3 picks. Much worse with lower picks. But its not enitely to their credit or fault. For a QB to succeed he has to have opportunity, talent, fast proseessing ability, coaching, tons of meaningful reps, drive to put all else second, continuity early in his career and talent around him and on defense.

A lot of things have to align for a QB to have successful career. It doesnt just happen because of ability alone.


I don't know what the numbers are specifically, but I know that there is a low success rate of QB's working out anywhere in the draft. Obviously the later in the draft you get the lower the success rate becomes. But that doesn't mean that high picks are the way to go either. There are a ton of top 3-5 picks that end up just average and frankly that's almost as bad as being a flat out bust. With a big st tou move on to the next. With average you hang on and hope they can put it all together but before you know it four or five years have passed and you aren't where you want to be.

Just look at the past several years. How does everyone feel right now about Jared Goff and Carson Wentz? How about James Winston and Marcus Mariota? Blake Bortles? Andrew Luck and RGIII? Heck, throw Tannehill into that mix just for grins. Who's elite? Who's a bust? Who's average? Which of these teams is markedly improved because they took a QB that high? Who's worse?

What I specifically dislike about what the Bears did involves risk mitigation or their ignorance of it in this case. Taking Trubisky carries a severe level of risk even without the trade and the loss of additional assets.
Wisc, the numbers are 50% in the top 3 picks and it only goes down from there. How would you fix the Bears QB position if you are unwilling to draft them? I'm sorry, I'm trying to understand your position, we've both been here for a long time, is your issue with the trade, or with the pick? Or do you REALLY believe that you shouldn't draft a QB? Your point you were trying to make with Goff, Wentz, Winston & Mariota kind of proves the rest of our point. 1 guy is already considered to be top tier and on the verge of elite. Another is looking like a real franchise QB, a 3rd had a very solid rookie year, and one who didn't play most of the year and probably wasn't handled correctly at all. That's 3/4 which to paraphrase Meatloaf, ain't bad.


Here's where I'm at. The McCaskey's are bad sports owners. They don't have a clue of how to create or sustain a successful organization. When the Ricketts family bought the Cubs they brought in one of, if not the very best baseball executive in the game. They set about completely changing the entire culture surrounding the Cubs. That move will go down in history as one the greatest sports success stories of all time.

Meanwhile the McCaskeys continue to employ Ted Phillips, who is not a football guy, in a prominent executive position because he navigated their stadium renovation and made them a bunch of money at the time. Problem with that is that Soldier Field has numerous issues including the mess with the playing surface / parks district pissing match, a tiny seating capacity for a market this size, amongst other things. Organizationally speaking they have engineered a complete train wreck of a situation for most of the past 3 decades.

When they hired Ryan Pace I was once again extremely optimistic that the right kind of change was taking place but he quickly lost my faith based upon his various draft picks and free agency moves. Please show me the great moves Ryan Pace has made. And in light of this preceding discussion you have to completely omit the drafting of Jordan Howard from your examples. Why? Because every single person who is supportive of the trade and pick of Trubisky repeatedly justifies the pick based upon the fact they only gave up 3rd and 4th round picks. I keep seeing those picks discounted entirely by people who want to write them off as inconsequential. Well you don't get it both ways. They are either unimportant or they matter. So leave Jordan Howard out of this and tell me what Ryan Pace has done well so far in his tenancy as GM.

I want Mitch Trubisky to be a superstar. I truly do, because I'm sick of the Bears being a complete and utter joke of a franchise. This draft strategy is essentially all or nothing. If Trubisky is a hit then all they need to do is pit the rest of the team around him (which I have little faith in them being able to do either) or he's a miss and the Bears continue to suck for a decade.

A decade? Yeah, pretty close. Pace has a minimum of 3 years now for Trubisky to pan out but I could easily see him showing flashes and Pace being given more time. But if they pull the plug on him then you are probably another 3-4 years away as you "rebuild" yet again.

This is all probably on the extreme end but I'm sick of the clown show. The McCaskeys are clueless morons. Ted Philips is a joke. The franchise has become a laughingstock. Pace has done very little to provide optimism for the future no matter how good of a game he talks.
So can you admit that this has nothing to do with the move or the pick, and is a personal vendetta you have against the McCaskey's? Honestly I've never gotten the Ted Phillips hate, the guy makes 0, I repeat ZERO football decisions. He runs the business side. He is the Bears version of Crane Kenney. Pace was hired by George McCaskey. Pace makes all football decisions. And what has Pace done well, for starters last year is looking like the best Bears draft of my lifetime. The year before had some decent hits and some unknown results in Kevin White. He hasn't wasted investment from what I've seen. The guys only been on the job for 3 years. As far as not including Howard in looking at Pace, that's BS. Nobody is saying 3rd and 4th round picks don't matter, they are saying they don't matter when you are trying to fix the QB position. Ik it's been a long time since we saw the graphic, but do you remember the list of QBs who started a game for the Bears while Brett Favre was the Packers QB? I do. It was 21. 21 QBs. It's now 28 or 29 I think vs Favre & Rodgers. It's time, and Ryan Pace clearly sees that. It's time for the Bears to have a franchise QB. You can't win in this league without one and Bears fans need to get past the thought of run the ball and play good defense and you just need a QB who doesn't lose games. I'm tired of it. Call me a spoiled Cubs fan now. I've seen my Cubs & the 'Hawks go out and change their way of thinking, get with the times and win Championships. It's time. It's time for the most precious prize in pro football to come home to the team who started the whole darn thing. It's time to modernize. To start with a QB, build around him, and be a yearly contender. It's Time!!
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