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ColeTrain


Joined: 17 Apr 2017
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Location: Missouri
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 11:26 pm    Post subject: What will happen Thursday? Reply with quote

I'm really curious about what the Chiefs will do on Thursday. It's well documented that this is a very strong draft class, and that every team in R1 is almost guaranteed a great prospect. However, that also makes the draft very hard to predict. The early teams have such diverse options that their decisions can seriously alter the outcome of the draft should they draft someone different than what is generally accepted (i.e. Browns taking a QB at 1, or anyone besides Myles Garrett, for that matter). I know this is the case with every draft, but the talent available makes it even more unpredictable. Especially with the prevalence of trades in R1, it makes it very tough to gauge.

That said, the Chiefs have pick 27. What are your thoughts, based on who you think will be available, on who they will take at 27? How does that (if it does at all) vary from who you think they SHOULD take?

Personally, this is how I see the draft going:
1. We take a defensive, front 7 player. An edge rusher or LB. Jaye Howard is gone, so replacing him is a priority. However, I think it might not go in R1, possibly R2 (Montravius Adams is a possibility). This opens options like Tyus Bowser (who beat writer Terez Paylor has in his most recent mock), Charles Harris, Taco Charlton, etc. assuming they are available. For the LB option, Zach Cunningham will likely be available, possibly Jarrad Davis if he falls. There is also players like TJ Watt who will be available. I see the most likely option being a LB. Exactly who, I'm not sure (but I really hope it's not Cunningham)
2. CB is also a need, considering our relatively weak position opposite of Peters. The CB class is loaded, so it's really up to preference of earlier teams on who will be available. I like this pick better than LB, but I'll explain why later.
3. QB is also a need. I feel like if Mahomes is available at 27, the temptation to get a R1 QB really shoots up. If not, I think we wait til later for someone like Webb, Hobbs, Kaaya, etc.

However, even though I think the above scenarios are most likely, I personally have some different ideas:
1. I know there might be some who disagree, but I think RB is a big need to open up the offense even more. Our defense has been solid, and I actually think Logan was an upgrade from Poe as far as what our defense needs. There are a lot of great RBs in this class, and with Mixon clearing up his altercation with Amelia Molitor, the likelihood of him going early is increasing. That makes 4 RBs who wouldn't be a surprise to go in R1 (Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook, and now Mixon). Fournette will almost certainly be gone, McCaffrey's stock has been rising and he'll probably be gone, too, but Cook and Mixon have the greatest chance of falling as far as 27. If either of them are there, I would pull the trigger. Taking Hill last year wasn't popular, but it seems to have worked out well. Mixon's case, imo, wasn't nearly as bad (punching a lady who shoved him vs beating a pregnant girlfriend... not really comparable I don't think).
2. I would rather take a defensive lineman in R2 or after and upgrade the CB position first. This means taking the top CB available at 27, and there will be some good ones. Conley might fall, and even behind him, the draft is loaded. Then, I would take someone, again, like Adams in R2. As for the LB position, I'd look to free agency after the draft. Gerald Hodges met with the Chiefs earlier, but I would pursue him after the draft to reinforce the LB position instead of prioritizing it in the draft.

Totally welcome your input. I know there are a lot of Chiefs fans who might think differently than I do, and have more experience (this is really my first draft that I've been extensively engaged in).
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onejayhawk


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't look for an edge rusher in the first round, unless one slides to us. ILB, CB, OG even TE are more likely. Harris, Takk, Taco, Bowser would all be reaches for our system.

The way the mocks have been shaped, best available CB is the most likely outcome, barring a trade. Whatever, BPA. As things unfold, I would not be shocked if we landed Foster.

J
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ColeTrain


Joined: 17 Apr 2017
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

onejayhawk wrote:
I don't look for an edge rusher in the first round, unless one slides to us. ILB, CB, OG even TE are more likely. Harris, Takk, Taco, Bowser would all be reaches for our system.

The way the mocks have been shaped, best available CB is the most likely outcome, barring a trade. Whatever, BPA. As things unfold, I would not be shocked if we landed Foster.

J


I agree, I don't think an edge rusher is our main concern. I'd be excited if we landed Foster... I've just never considered that he'd fall far enough to be available for us. Daniel Jeremiah has him as the #5 prospect on his board.
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Chiefer


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ColeTrain wrote:
onejayhawk wrote:
I don't look for an edge rusher in the first round, unless one slides to us. ILB, CB, OG even TE are more likely. Harris, Takk, Taco, Bowser would all be reaches for our system.

The way the mocks have been shaped, best available CB is the most likely outcome, barring a trade. Whatever, BPA. As things unfold, I would not be shocked if we landed Foster.

J


I agree, I don't think an edge rusher is our main concern. I'd be excited if we landed Foster... I've just never considered that he'd fall far enough to be available for us. Daniel Jeremiah has him as the #5 prospect on his board.
Foster did fail his combine drug test. That usually means a drop in the draft, for Justin Houston it meant a 3rd round selection.

I'd be happy to get TJ Watt. Lot of questions surrounding our EDGE group right now, despite the star power there have been a myriad of issues. Can't ever have enough pass rush.

Hardly liked at interior defenders. Need to review some tape I suppose, nobody has really been jumping out at me like CJ did last year.

I'd like Ahkello Witherspoon if we go CB. I think he'd be a great fit in our system. Just needs to work on his press skills. His background reminds me of a potential chief.

I still expect Dorsey to follow the draft value chart set out by Ron Wolf, so I don't ever expect to see us go TE in the 1st, especially with Kelce manning the starting position. George Kittle in the 3rd would be nice, very athletic with that Iowa blocking standard built in already.
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ColeTrain


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chiefer wrote:
ColeTrain wrote:
onejayhawk wrote:
I don't look for an edge rusher in the first round, unless one slides to us. ILB, CB, OG even TE are more likely. Harris, Takk, Taco, Bowser would all be reaches for our system.

The way the mocks have been shaped, best available CB is the most likely outcome, barring a trade. Whatever, BPA. As things unfold, I would not be shocked if we landed Foster.

J


I agree, I don't think an edge rusher is our main concern. I'd be excited if we landed Foster... I've just never considered that he'd fall far enough to be available for us. Daniel Jeremiah has him as the #5 prospect on his board.
Foster did fail his combine drug test. That usually means a drop in the draft, for Justin Houston it meant a 3rd round selection.

I'd be happy to get TJ Watt. Lot of questions surrounding our EDGE group right now, despite the star power there have been a myriad of issues. Can't ever have enough pass rush.

Hardly liked at interior defenders. Need to review some tape I suppose, nobody has really been jumping out at me like CJ did last year.

I'd like Ahkello Witherspoon if we go CB. I think he'd be a great fit in our system. Just needs to work on his press skills. His background reminds me of a potential chief.

I still expect Dorsey to follow the draft value chart set out by Ron Wolf, so I don't ever expect to see us go TE in the 1st, especially with Kelce manning the starting position. George Kittle in the 3rd would be nice, very athletic with that Iowa blocking standard built in already.


I've heard, though, that Foster is expected to go in late R1. Never know, though.

I agree. CJ was a special pick in R2. That's why I don't want to waste pick 27 on that.

He'll be later. Not R1. I'd prefer getting a top CB instead of waiting.

Yep. We don't need a TE R1. Waiting for Kittle or Butt in a later round would be better... but there are still more pressing needs.

If you don't want a top CB in R1 and aren't impressed by the defensive interior, who would you want the Chiefs to take in R1?
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think this is a great question, and was fixing to come start a thread for folks to predict what direction they think we'll go in the 1st round. As late as we are this year, and given how our relatively short list of needs doesn't really align with the expected positions left on our range, it seems like we will either reach or go BPA at a position of minimal need.

I think there is so much depth at CB this year, and that could be argued as our biggest need, that a slight reach there is probably OK. There's as many as 8 CB's that I've seen mocked in the first or very early 2nd, which suggests there's a ton of talent there, but most mocks have 4-5 CB's taken in the first. Guys like Kevin King and Quincy Wilson are the longer more physical types we like and are typically in the late 1st/early 2nd range on most mocks. I'd predict one of them, unless Forrest Lamp is there, and we probably take him.
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onejayhawk


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The plan last year worked well enough I would try a repeat. There is a fair likelihood that one of the top 4 QB will fall to us. Trade back if he is not the guy we want. I like the top of the 2nd round a lot more than end of the 1st.

J
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

onejayhawk wrote:
The plan last year worked well enough I would try a repeat. There is a fair likelihood that one of the top 4 QB will fall to us. Trade back if he is not the guy we want. I like the top of the 2nd round a lot more than end of the 1st.

J

Meh, we've got more picks this year than can probably realistically sign and actually improve our roster. I'd be ok with a trade back if the compensation involves picks next year. Like this year and next year's 2nd pick from someone in the middle of this year's draft would be acceptable. Adding another 4th rounder like last year isn't too appealing to me. Maybe if we pick up an extra 3rd, because that's about the limit of what I'd say isn't a developmental type.
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onejayhawk


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bigschmadt00 wrote:
onejayhawk wrote:
The plan last year worked well enough I would try a repeat. There is a fair likelihood that one of the top 4 QB will fall to us. Trade back if he is not the guy we want. I like the top of the 2nd round a lot more than end of the 1st.

J

Meh, we've got more picks this year than can probably realistically sign and actually improve our roster. I'd be ok with a trade back if the compensation involves picks next year. Like this year and next year's 2nd pick from someone in the middle of this year's draft would be acceptable. Adding another 4th rounder like last year isn't too appealing to me. Maybe if we pick up an extra 3rd, because that's about the limit of what I'd say isn't a developmental type.

Half our picks are after #150. Even 4th round picks are expected to make the team and play as rookies. The 5th round is where the gambling really starts. Besides, you don't have to add a pick. All those late picks can fill chinks in a deal. For example, Chiefs and Jets. #27, #91, #216 and #218 for #39, #70, #150 charts out 825.2 to 825.

J
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ColeTrain


Joined: 17 Apr 2017
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bigschmadt00 wrote:
I think this is a great question, and was fixing to come start a thread for folks to predict what direction they think we'll go in the 1st round. As late as we are this year, and given how our relatively short list of needs doesn't really align with the expected positions left on our range, it seems like we will either reach or go BPA at a position of minimal need.

I think there is so much depth at CB this year, and that could be argued as our biggest need, that a slight reach there is probably OK. There's as many as 8 CB's that I've seen mocked in the first or very early 2nd, which suggests there's a ton of talent there, but most mocks have 4-5 CB's taken in the first. Guys like Kevin King and Quincy Wilson are the longer more physical types we like and are typically in the late 1st/early 2nd range on most mocks. I'd predict one of them, unless Forrest Lamp is there, and we probably take him.



I think going BPA is not necessarily the best option, unless it happens to be a at a position of need (like RB, if Cook/McCaffrey/Mixon fall -- something like that). The CB class is very strong. I'd like King at 27 if the Seahawks don't take him before us. I don't see why we would take Forrest Lamp, our o-line is fairly solid. I think CB is our biggest need, honestly.
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onejayhawk


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ColeTrain wrote:
bigschmadt00 wrote:
I think this is a great question, and was fixing to come start a thread for folks to predict what direction they think we'll go in the 1st round. As late as we are this year, and given how our relatively short list of needs doesn't really align with the expected positions left on our range, it seems like we will either reach or go BPA at a position of minimal need.

I think there is so much depth at CB this year, and that could be argued as our biggest need, that a slight reach there is probably OK. There's as many as 8 CB's that I've seen mocked in the first or very early 2nd, which suggests there's a ton of talent there, but most mocks have 4-5 CB's taken in the first. Guys like Kevin King and Quincy Wilson are the longer more physical types we like and are typically in the late 1st/early 2nd range on most mocks. I'd predict one of them, unless Forrest Lamp is there, and we probably take him.



I think going BPA is not necessarily the best option, unless it happens to be a at a position of need (like RB, if Cook/McCaffrey/Mixon fall -- something like that). The CB class is very strong. I'd like King at 27 if the Seahawks don't take him before us. I don't see why we would take Forrest Lamp, our o-line is fairly solid. I think CB is our biggest need, honestly.

The biggest need is ILB, which is another way of saying that we have no real needs. Depth at many positions is thin but not drafting a player will not be a serious hardship anywhere.

BPA is the best approach. If Njoku is there at #27, he's my pick in almost all scenarios. Cook, same to a lesser extent. Even OT would make sense if none were off the board.

J
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samsel23


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ColeTrain wrote:
bigschmadt00 wrote:
I think this is a great question, and was fixing to come start a thread for folks to predict what direction they think we'll go in the 1st round. As late as we are this year, and given how our relatively short list of needs doesn't really align with the expected positions left on our range, it seems like we will either reach or go BPA at a position of minimal need.

I think there is so much depth at CB this year, and that could be argued as our biggest need, that a slight reach there is probably OK. There's as many as 8 CB's that I've seen mocked in the first or very early 2nd, which suggests there's a ton of talent there, but most mocks have 4-5 CB's taken in the first. Guys like Kevin King and Quincy Wilson are the longer more physical types we like and are typically in the late 1st/early 2nd range on most mocks. I'd predict one of them, unless Forrest Lamp is there, and we probably take him.





I think going BPA is not necessarily the best option, unless it happens to be a at a position of need (like RB, if Cook/McCaffrey/Mixon fall -- something like that). The CB class is very strong. I'd like King at 27 if the Seahawks don't take him before us. I don't see why we would take Forrest Lamp, our o-line is fairly solid. I think CB is our biggest need, honestly.


Lamp would transform our OL, taking it from not a weakness to a huge benefit. He's not at the top of my list, but depending how the board falls I could definitely see him being the pick of available.

High praise, but sliding Lamp in at LG improves that position greatly, as well as the other 2 guys beside him.
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ColeTrain


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

onejayhawk wrote:
ColeTrain wrote:
bigschmadt00 wrote:
I think this is a great question, and was fixing to come start a thread for folks to predict what direction they think we'll go in the 1st round. As late as we are this year, and given how our relatively short list of needs doesn't really align with the expected positions left on our range, it seems like we will either reach or go BPA at a position of minimal need.

I think there is so much depth at CB this year, and that could be argued as our biggest need, that a slight reach there is probably OK. There's as many as 8 CB's that I've seen mocked in the first or very early 2nd, which suggests there's a ton of talent there, but most mocks have 4-5 CB's taken in the first. Guys like Kevin King and Quincy Wilson are the longer more physical types we like and are typically in the late 1st/early 2nd range on most mocks. I'd predict one of them, unless Forrest Lamp is there, and we probably take him.



I think going BPA is not necessarily the best option, unless it happens to be a at a position of need (like RB, if Cook/McCaffrey/Mixon fall -- something like that). The CB class is very strong. I'd like King at 27 if the Seahawks don't take him before us. I don't see why we would take Forrest Lamp, our o-line is fairly solid. I think CB is our biggest need, honestly.

The biggest need is ILB, which is another way of saying that we have no real needs. Depth at many positions is thin but not drafting a player will not be a serious hardship anywhere.

BPA is the best approach. If Njoku is there at #27, he's my pick in almost all scenarios. Cook, same to a lesser extent. Even OT would make sense if none were off the board.

J


You think the ILB situation is worse than CB? We've got a lot of young guys at CB, but none of them are great except Peters. Gaines got burned a lot in crucial games (Denver) and Mitchell/Nelson haven't proved themselves worth to be full-time starters. I'm in favor of pursuing Gerald Hodges after the draft to upgrade ILB.

Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. We don't have any crushing needs (and those could be solved in later rounds... we have 10 picks). Upgrading a position with the BPA is a good option.
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ColeTrain


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

samsel23 wrote:
ColeTrain wrote:
bigschmadt00 wrote:
I think this is a great question, and was fixing to come start a thread for folks to predict what direction they think we'll go in the 1st round. As late as we are this year, and given how our relatively short list of needs doesn't really align with the expected positions left on our range, it seems like we will either reach or go BPA at a position of minimal need.

I think there is so much depth at CB this year, and that could be argued as our biggest need, that a slight reach there is probably OK. There's as many as 8 CB's that I've seen mocked in the first or very early 2nd, which suggests there's a ton of talent there, but most mocks have 4-5 CB's taken in the first. Guys like Kevin King and Quincy Wilson are the longer more physical types we like and are typically in the late 1st/early 2nd range on most mocks. I'd predict one of them, unless Forrest Lamp is there, and we probably take him.





I think going BPA is not necessarily the best option, unless it happens to be a at a position of need (like RB, if Cook/McCaffrey/Mixon fall -- something like that). The CB class is very strong. I'd like King at 27 if the Seahawks don't take him before us. I don't see why we would take Forrest Lamp, our o-line is fairly solid. I think CB is our biggest need, honestly.


Lamp would transform our OL, taking it from not a weakness to a huge benefit. He's not at the top of my list, but depending how the board falls I could definitely see him being the pick of available.

High praise, but sliding Lamp in at LG improves that position greatly, as well as the other 2 guys beside him.


Wasn't Ehinger the starter there last year until he was injured? He was a round 4 pick. If Lamp is really R1 worthy, it'd certainly be an upgrade. Just don't want a situation like Fisher a few years back.
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mayanfootball


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love Lamp, but Defense must be addressed. Holes developed at DT, ILB and we have no real play at CB2.

LG can be had later even if it's not a "Lamp".

Cook is off my board. Shoulder isses for my 27 pick? No thanks. McCaffrey if he falls is the choice.
M.McDowell, Mich.St. might be a good pick. Obviously Reddick, J.Davis if they fall.
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