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mountainpd


Joined: 21 Mar 2010
Posts: 2976
Location: Fareham, UK
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds great.

The biggest thing for me is that quarterbacks are normally under valued in draft and prospects who have to sit would potentially become even less valued.
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EaglesPeteC


Joined: 05 Feb 2008
Posts: 6204
Location: Raleigh, NC
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd rather do a "new team" rather than managing my favorite team. Once the real transactions come down its hard to care about my fake transactions
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bcb1213


Joined: 02 Feb 2017
Posts: 540
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One roadblock you're gonna have to consider is how to do the rookie draft order in the future. Someone could build a juggernaut here and have their real team be hot garbage and have the first selection
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IDOG_det


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Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 36892
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bcb1213 wrote:
One roadblock you're gonna have to consider is how to do the rookie draft order in the future. Someone could build a juggernaut here and have their real team be hot garbage and have the first selection
We wouldn't use the real life draft order.

ny92jefferis wrote:
The general idea, would be to conduct the off season for this keeper in March, this would contain the free agency, trades, draft, etc. You’d fill your 90 man roster just as you always have with the Total Control Mocks. Then we wait, patiently wait until the IRL season is complete, this allows us to collect statistical data throughout the season. The following year, most likely early January to give you time to drop your 90 man roster down to 53 and to officially set your depth chart and offensive and defensive schemes.

Late January through February, we use statistical data, along with other information to project the season's scores for each game, this projection system will populate the Standings for the year, giving us bragging rights, but most importantly a draft order for the upcoming off season in March….rinse & repeat.

The projection system is something I used in the past to predict the spread many years ago. The system I created does a decent job of projecting the winner of the game but wasn’t consistent enough to accurately bet the spread, so it was shelved, however, I think it would be a great tool for something like this as the system is very accurate at projecting the outcome of a game, 70% or higher once I’ve got all 17 weeks of statistical data loaded.

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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6663
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EaglesPeteC wrote:
I'd rather do a "new team" rather than managing my favorite team. Once the real transactions come down its hard to care about my fake transactions


I'd rather do Kate Upton, but I'm stuck with the same old han solo


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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6663
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mountainpd wrote:
Sounds great.

The biggest thing for me is that quarterbacks are normally under valued in draft and prospects who have to sit would potentially become even less valued.


I think it would put more value on veterans, which is something these individual mocks are missing as we'll trade just about anyone for a draft pick.

I hear you though, just not sure how to make it right. If they are drafted high enough in real life, they'll likely end up on the field sooner rather than later, unless your veteran is eli manning.
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6663
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bcb1213 wrote:
One roadblock you're gonna have to consider is how to do the rookie draft order in the future. Someone could build a juggernaut here and have their real team be hot garbage and have the first selection


Agreed, I believe I've got something that will work but I've never tried it for this type of event so I'm not 100% sure how much tweaking I'll need to do to the system.

This is my main project to work on, as the free agency, draft stuff is pretty much sorted out already.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6579
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ny92jefferis wrote:
bcb1213 wrote:
One roadblock you're gonna have to consider is how to do the rookie draft order in the future. Someone could build a juggernaut here and have their real team be hot garbage and have the first selection


Agreed, I believe I've got something that will work but I've never tried it for this type of event so I'm not 100% sure how much tweaking I'll need to do to the system.

This is my main project to work on, as the free agency, draft stuff is pretty much sorted out already.


Mike, you could certainly test the "system" you have for the 2017 season and see how it does. Might even be able to test it for the 2018 season and then implement if fully for 2019.
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6663
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
ny92jefferis wrote:
bcb1213 wrote:
One roadblock you're gonna have to consider is how to do the rookie draft order in the future. Someone could build a juggernaut here and have their real team be hot garbage and have the first selection


Agreed, I believe I've got something that will work but I've never tried it for this type of event so I'm not 100% sure how much tweaking I'll need to do to the system.

This is my main project to work on, as the free agency, draft stuff is pretty much sorted out already.


Mike, you could certainly test the "system" you have for the 2017 season and see how it does. Might even be able to test it for the 2018 season and then implement if fully for 2019.


For sure, I'm basically having to rebuild it because it was only looking at team stats originally and not individual stats. So until I get that sorted, who knows changing it up to look at individual stats could screw the whole thing up or you could find me in vegas.
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dhunt2402


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Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Posts: 26048
Location: The District
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I support this idea.
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6663
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

okay, so this is a very basic workbook, but before spending weeks on this project I wanted to get your take on it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ov8cHfIcZX9450nUvdDhv68wkKPDw6_62nasWpQgwDs/edit?usp=sharing

In a nutshell _ I've pulled some stats (qb,rb, etc) which you'll see in the link above, I then run a correlation formula to that of the total number of wins to determine the players value.

I then group those values in the "grouping" tab to break the overall team ranking based on the individual player stats. What I've learned over the years is that teams typically will have similar scores when facing teams within certain groups.

In the "projection" sheet, I run some simple average and median formulas to get the projected scores also including home field advantage %.

Like I was saying this is a pretty basic set up but the other one will be much more in depth to fine tune the formula to get a more accurate projected score, at least that's the plan.

The workbook is locked down except for the ability to change the home and away teams.

Anyway, I know it isn't much to look at but before I spend countless hours on this project, I wanna know that you guys are gonna be cool with this system to determine draft order and standings. So please let me know what you think about it.
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sparky151


Joined: 07 Feb 2012
Posts: 2797
Location: Columbus, OH
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll give it a try as the Bengals.
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Epochalypse


Joined: 20 Mar 2017
Posts: 48
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you need someone for the Redskins, I am game.
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bcb1213


Joined: 02 Feb 2017
Posts: 540
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll take on my hapless Jets
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6663
Location: America
PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

you guys do know this is for next year right...haha.
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