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2017 Draft Thread 3: Draft day
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Fureys49ers


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-ALL-DAY wrote:
And you talk about Gurley's bad OL as if our OL has been better in the run game? By almost every site we have been bottom three the last two years and #31 by FO. The last six games of the year he had 545 yards on 95 carries (5.7 YPC). As for taking out the Jets game? Well, take out the Cards game where he had 14 yards on 13 carries and he ends up with a 4.8 YPC for the season running behind a top 3 worst OL in the game.

So yeah, I'll take my chances on this guy. Injuries will always be a concern but I'm not getting rid of him for a 6th. Maybe he stays on the team past this year or maybe not, but a 6th is not worth it. If he has a good season or say a similar one from last year where he misses a couple of games but gets close to a 1,000 yards, a team giving him a 2 year 12 million deal is out of the realm of possibility?


I agree with what you're saying J but if someone throughout that kind of money to Hyde I'd be floored. I can't see Hyde getting anymore than what Latavius Murray this year with the Vikes.
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Forge


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-ALL-DAY wrote:
And you talk about Gurley's bad OL as if our OL has been better in the run game? By almost every site we have been bottom three the last two years and #31 by FO. The last six games of the year he had 545 yards on 95 carries (5.7 YPC). As for taking out the Jets game? Well, take out the Cards game where he had 14 yards on 13 carries and he ends up with a 4.8 YPC for the season running behind a top 3 worst OL in the game.

So yeah, I'll take my chances on this guy. Injuries will always be a concern but I'm not getting rid of him for a 6th. Maybe he stays on the team past this year or maybe not, but a 6th is not worth it. If he has a good season or say a similar one from last year where he misses a couple of games but gets close to a 1,000 yards, a team giving him a 2 year 12 million deal is out of the realm of possibility?


Take out both games, his average is slightly above 4.1 for the season. Pretty much in line with what he's done with his career, which is to say, nothing bad, nothing all that special. So you can consider both an outlier and you get something that's average

Not sure why you brought up Gurley...I was agreeing with you that it was hard to be impressed with him at this point. But I think if you put a poll up in the comparisons forum, he gets a total and complete sweep over hyde from non49er fans. Though in his defense, I would say that while the offensive lines were comparable, Gurley suffered from having keenum and Goff as his quarterbacks (say what you will about Kaep, he's better than those 2) and Jeff Fisher as his coach (say what you will about Chip, guy can create an effective running gameplan).

But it all comes down to what you are doing with him at the end of the year. If you are re-signing him, then yeah, it woudln't make sense to unload him for a 6th. But I'm not resigning him, nor do I think the team should. He's a pretty average to above average running back and I think fairly easily replaced (by cheaper options to boot, which we may have done this year with the selection of Williams)

Do I think that the 2 years 12 million is possible? I would never say that it's not, but I don't think it's likely. Look at the deals this year. Murray "got" 3 / 15, but that's fluff. The deal is actually 1 year, 4.1 million. Danny woodhead "got" 3/8.8, but again, fluff. The deal is 1/3.25.

Eddie Lacy 1/4.25. AP, 2/7. Charles 1/1. Guys who didnt even get signed include Blount and a slew of other "meh" guys. Why in the world would I give Hyde 2/12 unless that second year is complete fluff? Plus, for compensatory purposes, that kind of contract doesn't mean much. That also would have just about been wiped out by our signing of a back up WILL linebacker this year.

***

Edit, just to note: I am the guy that would rarely, if ever give a running back a second contract without him being truly special. Zeke? Sure, if he keeps up what he did I'd give him a second deal. But there are too many running backs out here similar to Hyde that would make a second contract, especially with his injury history, not a smart deal.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course Gurley will win from the hype he came into the league with and his start of his career. But his OL was no worse than ours last year. Fair point on Kap.

And I threw out 2 years 12 million without looking at what other backs got. But Hyde is rated fairly highly in media circles and by front office guys. Didn't one executive call Hyde a top 3 back or would be much better on another team? I forgot that quote.

Who knows with him though, maybe the injuries help get him on a team friendly deal. Still, I'm not giving him up.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
Forge wrote:


You ask why are people so ready to get rid of him, and I ask why shouldn't I be if I don't think that there's a long term future there? Or if I don't want him long term? He's a fine player, but he's not special.


the answer to your question is because he is a darn good back - when healthy. That latter represents a HUGE IF. But on talent alone, no way they should want to get rid of him. He was 14th in the league in rushing last year, which by itself is decent. But not a single back ahead of him had as few carries as he did. In fact his yards per carry were comfortably in the top 10 out of the top 20 guys in rushing yards. All of that was behind one of the poorer olines in the league and on a team without a passing game for the defense to have to worry asbout defeding. He's not a great pass catching threat but his 27 receptions isn't too shabby either. His health and his contract are worries for me, but his talent isn't.


That really isn't the answer though, given that I have already addressed his skill level. "Darn Good Back" is questionable. He belongs in a tier of running backs that is quite large, and ranges from "above average" to decidedly average. He's certainly not better than the likes of DJ, Shady, Zeke, Bell. I'd include Demarco in that group as well. Most people aren't taking him over Gurley (though obviously, hard to be impressed with Gurley last year given that offensive line problem). So that is 6 off the bat. Then you have a list that includes the likes of:

Devonta Freeman
Tevin Coleman
Jay Ajayi
Spencer Ware
Mark Ingram
Jordan Howard
CJ Anderson
Melvin Gordon
Lamar Miller
What about Gio Bernard? He doesn't run the ball as much, but he's been about as effective at it throughout his career, and adds more in the receiving game.

I'm not saying he's better or worse than any or all of those guys, but I think an argument could certainly be made that they were in which you would have to listen. Then you have the unknown guys:

Marshawn Lynch
AP

Those guys, if they are still them, are both better than Hyde...but I don't know if they are still them. And I'm willing to be that most people, even if all things were equal (IE, contracts) would take Fournette and maybe Cook over Hyde. I mean, it's a big, wide open tier. Hyde simply isn't super special.

Also, while the stats you posted are factual, they are also buoyed heavily by an outlier game against the Jets that probably doesn't have great odds of repeating. Take that single game out, he's under 4 yards per carry (but right around that mark, which is much more in line with his career) and 800 yards rushing. And that game can't be seen as anything more than an outlier given the rest of his game by game production and the fact that the long runs that would produce those type of games typically are not a strength of his given his lack of breakaway speed. (He's had a grand total of a whopping 3 games in his career where he's had at least one rush of 30 yards).

But then, at the end of your post...you come to main point. Injuries and contract. If you give him a new contract, you're giving it to a guy who will be 27 the first year of his deal, and doesn't have a great history of staying healthy. You want to give a new contract to that guy? For someone who isn't bad, but isn't great? For what purpose? What kind of long term forecast do you project there? 27 isn't old, but it's certainly not young. Does the possibility of a single good year in a season where we aren't going anywhere mean so much that we would't just take a late round pick and try to acquire a guy that has a realistic shot of being here in even 3 years? And how good of a year are we expecting here, because I tihnk that there's a cap on his market share of the running back activity this year. I wouldn't be shocked if he only gets about 200 carries and plays all 16 games. I would expect Williams, Hightower and even Juice Check to eat into his carries by a good chunk.

Now, if you're in favor of re-signing him, then it makes sense that you wouldn't unload him for something cheap. But in my case, I've been saying for a while now that he's not the guy i can give a second contract too and I'm thinking the FO is thinking the same (I can say that if and only if the rumors of us shopping him were true). So yeah, if the Lions were interested, I'd probably try for a late round pick or two, and send him on his way.


the top 3 rushers in the league last year were zeke, howard and murray. If you extend hyde's rushing yards to the same number of carries those three guys had he would have 1466, 1147 and 1334 yards respectively. One of those is a top 10 number. The other two would place him at number 2. And that's behind our line. Let him run the same number of times that zeke ran behind that same line and he might give zeke's total a run for the money. Extend his numbers to the same number of carries as freeman and he would nearly match his rushing total, and atlanta's line was wa better, their offense was better, and they had ryan and julio go worry about. So, no, i don't see him as merely a middle of the pack guy ... when healthy of course.
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John232


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not paying out big for a back that can't even stay Healthy in a committee. end of story. Hyde is solid, but he offers nothing outside of being a good runner. I like Hyde, he's fun to watch, but he's not a YPC beast, his vision is so-so and I think of him as being pretty average catching out of the backfield.

Would he be easily replaceable? No, but his production could probably be replaced in a committee. Also, if the team didn't share this same thought they wouldn't have traded for Bipps, resigned Harris, signed Hightwoer and then draft Joe Williams in the fourth. They obviously have concerns about Hyde long term given how much we just loaded up at RB.
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Devin Kurant


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So I guess you guys cut KD Cannon. Some over here in the Baylor bubble believe he violated team rules, and don't take that as drugs, but most likely talking back to a coach or something of that sort. His ego is ridiculously gigantic.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Devin Kurant wrote:
So I guess you guys cut KD Cannon. Some over here in the Baylor bubble believe he violated team rules, and don't take that as drugs, but most likely talking back to a coach or something of that sort. His ego is ridiculously gigantic.


Probably had to do something to be cut so fast.
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Devin Kurant


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-ALL-DAY wrote:
Devin Kurant wrote:
So I guess you guys cut KD Cannon. Some over here in the Baylor bubble believe he violated team rules, and don't take that as drugs, but most likely talking back to a coach or something of that sort. His ego is ridiculously gigantic.


Probably had to do something to be cut so fast.


Yeah. Really big mistake by him in not returning. All the scouts advised him to return to Baylor and that he had a 7th-undrafted grade on him...

With Matt Rhule cleaning up the image here and polishing up our players both on and of the field, along with an actual route tree, KD could have increased his stock to maybe even a 3rd or 4th rounder.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He also signed a big signing bonus compared to other UDFAs. So yeah, the Niners wouldn't have cut him this quickly if he didn't do something stupid.
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:


the top 3 rushers in the league last year were zeke, howard and murray. If you extend hyde's rushing yards to the same number of carries those three guys had he would have 1466, 1147 and 1334 yards respectively. One of those is a top 10 number. The other two would place him at number 2. And that's behind our line. Let him run the same number of times that zeke ran behind that same line and he might give zeke's total a run for the money. Extend his numbers to the same number of carries as freeman and he would nearly match his rushing total, and atlanta's line was wa better, their offense was better, and they had ryan and julio go worry about. So, no, i don't see him as merely a middle of the pack guy ... when healthy of course.


Oh dear god....please tell me that you realized after you posted this what a ridiculously flawed argument this is and you were hoping that I wouldn't notice? Seriously? Expanding stats for one player only and then using the bulk stat result to validate your point? Really? You don't see the flaw in that? Talk about manipulating figures to get a result.

Let me break it down...if you're doing it for Hyde, do it for everyone. So lets keep it simple. All running backs get the same amount of carries. Where does Hyde finish in rushing yards? 11th, because that's where his YPC is. The year before? 27th. So get out of here with that top 5 nonsense.

Secondly, you didn't even address the outlier game. J did, to an extent, but unless I'm taking his post wrong, I don't think he was saying I was incorrect, just that if I'm going to do that, I need to take the outlier game away on the other end of the spectrum. After doing that, his average last year was a little over 4.1, which is right in line with his career averages of 4.0 and 4.1 the previous 2 years. You're still using the 4.6 average if you get him at #11 but over the length of his career, outside of that one game, he's largely been a 4.1 guy. This is where the bulk of the NFL resides - 4.3 would put you at 15th last year, where as 4.1 gets you 21st/22nd. The year before, it was even worse - 4.3 got you 20th, while 4.1 got you 26th - 31.

There's nothing that really supports that game as being anything more than an outlier. Before that game, he had had 2 games in his career where he had a 30 yard run, and only 5 games where he had had a 20 yard run. and he had never had a 40 yard run. He had 2 40 yard runs in that Jets game and 4 runs of over 20 yards total. His sample size over his career isn't so small now where that is meaningless. Maybe you still think he's a 4.6 type guy, but there's nothing in his history that supports that to me.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, I am against taking outlier games either way. If a RB averaged 5 YPC but had two 75+ yards that were taken away, then the average goes to like 4.3. Would those runs be considered an outlier?

He averaged 4.6 YPC behind one of the absolute worse offensive lines in the game. Not that we had great back ups, but it says something that none of the back ups were even close to averaging what he did. And sometimes it is due to having to run behind different set of offensive lines, but I think all three ran behind the same units all season.
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-ALL-DAY wrote:
No, I am against taking outlier games either way. If a RB averaged 5 YPC but had two 75+ yards that were taken away, then the average goes to like 4.3. Would those runs be considered an outlier?

He averaged 4.6 YPC behind one of the absolute worse offensive lines in the game. Not that we had great back ups, but it says something that none of the back ups were even close to averaging what he did. And sometimes it is due to having to run behind different set of offensive lines, but I think all three ran behind the same units all season.


Depends on if those 75 yard runs are likely again. Adrian Peterson, for example, has only had 2 years where he didn't get at least one 50 yard run (one where he played one game, one where he played 3). In every season but three , he's had at least a 60 yard run (the two I mentioned, one other). So they are pretty typical, so no, I'm not discounting if he rips off a long run.

Hyde has had 2 40 yard gains in his career, both in that Jets game. He had 5 total games before that with a 20 yard run. So yeah, a game where he gets 4 20+ yard runs seems pretty atypical and not likely to repeat given the sample size is big enough at this point to have a decent understanding of what is there. If you had to bet your house on his ypc moving forward being closer to 4.6 or 4.1 right now, where would you put your money? 4.6? Because when I have nearly 3 seasons of him being pretty consistently in one area, and then have one singular event that bumps him up to another level and disguises the overall play the rest of the year. That's a statistical oddity/outlier.

I mean, last year people were arguing that GAbbert was a better runner than Kaep and using stats that included a rushing outlier for him last year when he had that 40 yard rush against Chicago. Outliers, if they really and truly are statistical oddities and nothing more, should be accounted for.

I'll take it to baseball. Brandon Crawford's batting average throughout his career - .248, .248, .246, .256, .275. That .275 happened last year when he had a 7 hit game that raised his batting average 13 points. Where do you think his typical batting average is? Is he the .278 hitter from last year? or is he closer to what he has done the rest of his career with some progression as he's improved? Because when I'm projecting moving forward, I'm thinking his 7 hit game probably is an outlier and that huge increase in batting average is unlikely to be maintained.

His ytd batting average is .263.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are you giving me a bottom 2 or 3 OL or actually some what of a competent OL? Because with a competent OL, I'd definitely wager on the 4.6 or even better.

And I don't about 20+ or 40+ runs, but I do know dating back to the Patriots games he had a whole a lot of 10+ runs. Also, in the last six games where he averaged 5.7 YPC, three of the games were over 5.0 YPC and five of the six over 4.5 YPC. So yeah, you could go ahead and take that game out, but it was clear where he was trending to end the season.
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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-ALL-DAY wrote:
Are you giving me a bottom 2 or 3 OL or actually some what of a competent OL? Because with a competent OL, I'd definitely wager on the 4.6 or even better.

And I don't about 20+ or 40+ runs, but I do know dating back to the Patriots games he had a whole a lot of 10+ runs. Also, in the last six games where he averaged 5.7 YPC, three of the games were over 5.0 YPC and five of the six over 4.5 YPC. So yeah, you could go ahead and take that game out, but it was clear where he was trending to end the season.


That's fair, he certainly did end on a high note. Maybe that's him moving forward, maybe not. He's also had far less inspiring stretches, including 5 out of 7 to open the season at 3.8 or less and 5 of his 7 games in 2015 were 3.6 or less (though possibly the worst o-line in history that year...2015 was so very, very bad).

Right now, it has to be the same offensive line...if only because it basically is the same offensive line Laughing And also because this is going back to the conversation with Big where he's projecting his stats last year based on that 4.6 number, which would have included the same offensive line.

The problem is that in this instance, those long runs matter because they are what drive huge games like that. If he's unlikely to get them, it makes a game like that Jets one even more of an outlier. And nobody here I think confuses Hyde with some monster explosive runner...that's just not his thing. I'd be surprised if he ran the 40 in 4.7 right now, so I don't necessarily think those big runs are going to be a staple of his arsenal.

Side note: football outsiders does have an interesting chart where they try to isolate and measure offensive lines and running backs. I'm not sure how much stock I put into it all told, just because I'm not 100% sure on how it works, how it's calcualted, etc, but we easily had one of the worst offensive lines in football, and isolated to our running backs, we were slightly above the league average on their end.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I think our OL has the potential to be better with the trade of Zuttah and the potential jump from year 1 to year 2 for Garnett. If Garnett doesn't show improvements from last season, then it will likely be the same.

Maybe the guys fit better in Shanahan's system and that will be enough to make it competent.
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