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Alabama LB Reuben Foster fails drug test at Combine
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RuskieTitan wrote:
Guarantees his floor is the Bengals pick.


I'm fine with this...
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Calvert's assertion that Foster was a Day 3 prospect.

Calvert is all over the place. He called him possibly a 3rd round prospect. Possibly a 4th round prospect. Possibly undrafted. The only thing he left out was the possibility of Reuben Foster dying before the draft.


On that we agree. See? It can happen here! Smile

Seriously let's move on (I leave you the final word if you'd like). PM me if you really want to continue (I'm civil, not going for a flame war, it really is OK to just disagree). Or not. Either way let's end this publicly on a positive note and let the others chime in. I know when I'm the outsider it's no fun to watch 2 guys hijack a convo with nothing new to add (after the initial to and fro that's usually the case, we've both made our points).
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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Iamcanadian


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Calvert's assertion that Foster was a Day 3 prospect.

Calvert is all over the place. He called him possibly a 3rd round prospect. Possibly a 4th round prospect. Possibly undrafted. The only thing he left out was the possibility of Reuben Foster dying before the draft.


Now that's funny!!!
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CalhounLambeau


Joined: 05 May 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Broncofan wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Calvert's assertion that Foster was a Day 3 prospect.

Calvert is all over the place. He called him possibly a 3rd round prospect. Possibly a 4th round prospect. Possibly undrafted. The only thing he left out was the possibility of Reuben Foster dying before the draft.


On that we agree. See? It can happen here! Smile

Seriously let's move on (I leave you the final word if you'd like). PM me if you really want to continue (I'm civil, not going for a flame war, it really is OK to just disagree). Or not. Either way let's end this publicly on a positive note and let the others chime in. I know when I'm the outsider it's no fun to watch 2 guys hijack a convo with nothing new to add (after the initial to and fro that's usually the case, we've both made our points).

I'm not done with you punk.
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Calvert28


Joined: 21 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yin-Yang wrote:
How many eligible players are worth 1st rounders - "game tape aside"? Adams, Garrett, Fournette, and Ross - who else?

Are Malik Hooker and Corey Davis first rounders without film?

There's no point in looking at a player from an evaluation standpoint without their game tape. Using that crutch of a phrase as an inhibitor against a player is idiotic.


It has been more then justified by many teams to overrule game play based on off the field issues.

And for many different players whos careers have been derailed or destroyed completely by off the field issues.

Jamarcus Russell, Lawrence Phillips, among others are reasons as to why they take the off field very serious as to whether or not they are worth the risk. Pics that high have cost coaches and GM's their jobs.

Don't know why thats so hard for you guys to understand.
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GeneralDissaray wrote:
mozwanted wrote:
I don't agree with the pick.Bad teams pick rb's with a top 5 pick.
Moz, bad teams pick in the top 5.That's the way the draft works.
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Calvert28


Joined: 21 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Broncofan wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Not sure why this is hard for people to comprehend.

Game tape aside

Game tape when you play in the SEC and the BCS games that he's played in kinda matters.

He said game tape aside. He didn't imply it didn't matter. You didn't interpret what he said correctly.

This is all I'm saying.

Man.


All good. But I'll admit a 2nd time where I was wrong - it was Calvert's assertion that Foster was a Day 3 prospect. For which that post was the reply. Which you say you don't care about - but it's the context which makes the statement absurd. To now borrow your phrase genuinely - I don't see how this is hard for people to comprehend.

To me and others who read it - Calvert is saying the tape doesn't matter enough to keep him out of Day 3. It's not implied - it's actually said. If you want to split hairs and say Calvert didn't say it doesn't matter at all, your call. Saying it doesn't matter enough to put him into Day 3, it's still a ridiculous statement either way you cut it. That's the point being made. And it's still beyond ridiculous IMO.

We've beaten this horse to death, apologies to the rest. Moving on (yes I said it before but I did want to show I will admit I was wrong on Van vs. Calvert as theDay 3 OP...2x.).


And again you failed to read.

I said if anything else pops up he may fall to late 3rd day. I think your just arguing for the sake of being right rather then arguing the actual point being made here and digging yourself a hole while at it. And you're well on your way to China with each new post.
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GeneralDissaray wrote:
mozwanted wrote:
I don't agree with the pick.Bad teams pick rb's with a top 5 pick.
Moz, bad teams pick in the top 5.That's the way the draft works.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Calvert28 wrote:
Broncofan wrote:

it was Calvert's assertion that Foster was a Day 3 prospect. For which that post was the reply. Which you say you don't care about - but it's the context which makes the statement absurd. To now borrow your phrase genuinely - I don't see how this is hard for people to comprehend.



And again you failed to read.

I said if anything else pops up he may fall to late 3rd day. I think your just arguing for the sake of being right rather then arguing the actual point being made here and digging yourself a hole while at it. And you're well on your way to China with each new post.


Here's your original post as a refresher:

Calvert28 wrote:

he is 3rd or 4th rounder at best right now.... (later, the part about 1 more getting him undrafted is posted


The 4th round is Day 3 the last time I looked. I read it just fine. It's still utterly ridiculous. Rd 3 is equally ridiculous. And before we simply just go back and forth between us as to why or why not, to move the convo forward, rather than just go back and forth, I'll back it up with more in-depth draft history as new info to show you why your statement is still beyond ridiculous.

Here's a more relevant list of players beyond naming guys who failed who were top 5 picks - actual guys who fell out of the top 5-10 slot Foster was slotted in pre-Combine. This gives a much better picture of what happens when character/drug issues comes up. Using Manningham and Houston is flawed because they weren't mocked as top 10 guys, more at top 25-30 - they fell just as hard value-wise as the top 10 guys if you use the draft chart (arbitrary value, but it helps frame the point about depth of drop) - but the starting point changes where you end up. Don't believe me? Well, let's actually look at other top 5-10 talents who fell because of character/drug concerns and see how far they fell, and why. I'll also include the injury angle for top 10 guys (if I miss someone there for injuries, no worries for anyone else brought up).

So, here's a more indepth list of top 10 mocked guys (literally mocked in top 10 sometime that year) who fell hard for the reasons you're including (character, drugs), as that's the actual point made - but given we agree Foster was mocked at the elite top 10, let's stick there - let's compare apples to apples. These guys include (and I've included the sources that had them mocked top 10 and confirmed they fell due to issues off-the-field where applicable, just so you know it's not me just pulling it out of thin air):


Character/Drugs

Dez Bryant top 10 (Kiper Jan 10) to #24 (legal/character)
Nick Fairley top 3 (#1 Kiper Jan 11) to #13 (size/work ethic/character)
Warren Sapp top 5 (Sam Wyche confirmed) to #12 (drugs/character)
Randy Moss top 5-8 (agent rep confirmed, article in Sporting News 2015) to #21 (character, confirmed )
Dan Marino top 10 (drop confirmed by MIA Sun-Sentinel 2013 article) to #27 (drug rumor, debunked)
Laremy Tunsil top 5 to #16 (drug pic)

All top 10, all stayed in Rd 1.


Injury
Myles Jack top 10 to #33 (microfracture)
Michael Crabtree top 5 to #10 (foot)
Jaylon Smith - top 10-15 to early 3rd (nerve damage, career in doubt)

Jack 1 pick out of Rd 1, Crabtree still there, Jaylon Smith career known to be in doubt pre-draft. Not the case with Foster.


Legal (Prison)
Lael Collins top 10-15 undrafted (days b4 draft started, no info on felony criminal charges, so spectre of never playing a down there).


Do you see the drop? It was impressive for each of them (because a drop into the late teens or 20's is impressive, whether it's by the draft value chart, hundreds of points, or more importantly to the player, millions of $ lost) - and yet it's still nowhere close to what you are suggesting, except for 2 guys, one who had a murdered ex-girlfriend days before the draft started and no way to clear his name and whose career was in doubt if he was involved, and a guy who was known to miss at least 1 year, and maybe career-ending. And the other theme? These players' outcomes. They are why teams will even today still take a shot later in Rd 1 - because their ceiling is too good to pass over the guys left. One only has to look at Laremy Tunsil to see the example still holds now.

Now, a top 30 guy with concerns may fall to the top 75 because their risk doesn't make the difference in ceiling worth taking the shot. A top 50 guy could go outside the top 125. A top 100 guy might fall out of the draft - because the risk isn't worth the small ceiling gaps that teams see with other choices. But, a top 10 guy's ceiling quickly makes the risk worth it even later in Rd 1 - because the drop-off in talent really takes off then most years (even this one, I'd say early-mid 20's, you see it even in our current mock going on right now). Your original statement dismissing game film and where it puts Foster is ridiculous because starting point matters for the reasons above - and why so many others are pointing this out, no matter the semantics being put in your defence. Because it's just semantics.

Anyway you slice it, going from top 10 to Rd 3-4 best-case (your own words) is just not supported by draft history, unless Foster's career is seen in jeopardy. Which it's not. None of the above is a guarantee Foster will succeed as well as the best of that group. But the elite top 10 rank points to that ceiling, and why the drop only goes so far. And that's why dismissing game tape that ranks a player that highly to the point you start throwing out Rd 3-4 BEST-CASE is ridiculous, no matter how you cut it - once game tape puts you as an elite top 10 guy, the fall is different than if you're a top 30, or a top 50 guy. Again, not that hard to understand, but I trust the above helps cement why your original statements are still beyond ridiculous.

And if you aren't still convinced, concern-wise, which group of players does Foster fall into as far as the extent of concerns? You guessed it - the other guys NOT named Jaylon Smith or La'el Collins. No career is in doubt here at this stage. So yeah, still beyond ridiculous. A look at the NFL draft history, both remote and recent, for top 10 guys, shows the drop is significant, because going from top 10 to 20's is a huge drop for that player and the number of teams that pass them - but nowhere close to what you are saying. Even Tunsil's draft was all the talk last year.

So yeah, I've read just fine - those are all your words above. I've already admitted when I've cited the wrong poster - I'm never afraid to admit when I'm wrong. Draft history shows this isn't the case here.

I don't need to make the argument to support the statement that top 10 guys without career-ending concerns do not fall beyond Rd 1 - draft history does the work for me. I've shown the reasoning behind my statements, and it's hard, cold NFL draft history - can you show yours beyond extreme statements that you've posted above? I said I was done with Calhoun's discussion and I am, because there's nothing to add to that convo, but I offer the new info above to show why your view is beyond ridiculous - it's up to you to simply decide if you believe NFL draft history, and the group of top 10 ranked players who fell before, both in the distant and recent past. I know which side I'll take, thanks.

EDIT: quote formatting glitches, fixed now.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.


Last edited by Broncofan on Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:17 am; edited 8 times in total
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PossibleCabbage


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think anybody can comfortably say "this linebacker who does not rush the passer is clearly a top 10 player". I didn't think Foster was going in the top 10 even if everything (combine incident, drug test, injury history, history of bama guys, size, athleticism, etc.) checked out.

I mean, Kuechly lasted until the 9th pick...

It's unreasonable to compare similar off-field/character/drug concerns between QBs, OTs, & Pass Rushers to off-ball LBs. You'll give the former a pass because those are really important positions.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PossibleCabbage wrote:
I don't think anybody can comfortably say "this linebacker who does not rush the passer is clearly a top 10 player". I didn't think Foster was going in the top 10 even if everything (combine incident, drug test, injury history, history of bama guys, size, athleticism, etc.) checked out.

I mean, Kuechly lasted until the 9th pick...

It's unreasonable to compare similar off-field/character/drug concerns between QBs, OTs, & Pass Rushers to off-ball LBs. You'll give the former a pass because those are really important positions.


Absolutely fair comment. But again, I'm not going off my own opinion, here are the most viewed pre-Combine mocks I can find:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts/daniel-jeremiah/335600 - NFL's Jeremiah #5

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-mock-draft-2017-three-round-projection-team-needs-top-players-sleepers-2017-mock-draft-latest-news-rumors-order-free-agency-combine-7-round-021617 - FOX - #11

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2017-nfl-mock-draft-titans-jets-chargers-make-secondary-their-no-1-priority/ - CBS #9

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/02/08/nfl-mock-draft-three-round-picks-projections - SI #5

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/69049/344/nfl-mock-draft-20 - RW #6

And in case you think I'm cherrypicking - FF's POSTCOMBINE mock draft:
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=587134 - #9

Nothing is guaranteed, but it's pretty clear he was seen as a consensus top 10 prospect - which being a ILB, is even more impressive. Elite skill level from his game film, since he didn't actually test at the Combine, too. And with our diehard population of FF draft guys, he still ranked #9 overall with our forum's vote, even with the MRI tech incident well-known. His game film and skill set were seen as THAT impressive, and the MRI incident seen as a one-off.

So I think you'd see the analogy fits for top 10 pre-Combine (and I'd even venture post-Combine ranking would be justified). If you accept that, well, draft history is very clear that guys fall...just nowhere near as what's being put forth by some.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.


Last edited by Broncofan on Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:07 am; edited 1 time in total
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48 1/2ers


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gore Whore 21 wrote:
48 1/2ers wrote:
the rumors are that his medical history is concerning teams, the specifics behind being sent home are not completely clear so there are more rumors attached to that, having a diluted drug test is again attached to more rumors that he's using illegal drugs. All these rumors are what create the red flags. That's fine if they bother you, i'm just saying they don't bother me.

His size concerns fine you got me, thats a fact. But again doesnt bother me, my opinion on Reuben Foster's draft potential is set.


I guess I'm still not following how an injury that required surgery and may require another (rumor) on top of multiple documented concussions are rumors. Being sent home from the combine for behavioral reasons also is not a rumor. That happened. I also said nothing about him doing illegal drugs. I simply said he failed a drug test, which he did, and he will now be in the NFL's testing program starting off as a rookie. This may be a bit of semantics, but putting the 'rumor' label on things that he can control (Combine incident and one could argue the drug test) as well as things that people should clearly be worried about (being injured at a job interview that requires you to be in peak physical condition, while I understand does happens, doesn't mean GMs/scouts simply ignore) is a bit ridiculous imo. Maybe you don't worry about a player who's had multiple documented injuries who plays one of the most physical postitions in football in a uncommonly physical way, but I do. I also worry about a guy who can't keep his cool with a staff member at the biggest job interview of his life when he knows everyone is watching him, no matter what situation he was put it. Like you said, you are set in your evaluation of Foster, but to me there are a lot of red flags on him caused by his history and his actions this offseason.

I'm not a medical professional and I havent heard a thing about Foster from a medical professional other than he's had surgery on his rotator cuff and concussions in the past. There are conflicting reports on him needing more work, so you can believe one report I'll believe the other.

To me, Foster just has that attitude about him that isnt the most ideal for everyday normal human to human interaction and interviewing. His ability on the football field is not something to ignore just because he has those traits. If he can be properly mentored/guided/coached how to be a professional he can be great. I have those expectations for 9ers to be prepared to do that if they pick Foster or anyone picked #2 overall.

I'd be happy with Foster, Garrett, Adams, Hooker, Trubisky, McCaffrey, heck maybe even Reddick at #2. I'm not hard to please
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Calvert28


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Broncofan wrote:
Calvert28 wrote:
Broncofan wrote:

it was Calvert's assertion that Foster was a Day 3 prospect. For which that post was the reply. Which you say you don't care about - but it's the context which makes the statement absurd. To now borrow your phrase genuinely - I don't see how this is hard for people to comprehend.



And again you failed to read.

I said if anything else pops up he may fall to late 3rd day. I think your just arguing for the sake of being right rather then arguing the actual point being made here and digging yourself a hole while at it. And you're well on your way to China with each new post.


Here's your original post as a refresher:

Calvert28 wrote:

he is 3rd or 4th rounder at best right now.... (later, the part about 1 more getting him undrafted is posted


The 4th round is Day 3 the last time I looked. I read it just fine. It's still utterly ridiculous. Rd 3 is equally ridiculous. And before we simply just go back and forth between us as to why or why not, to move the convo forward, rather than just go back and forth, I'll back it up with more in-depth draft history as new info to show you why your statement is still beyond ridiculous.

Here's a more relevant list of players beyond naming guys who failed who were top 5 picks - actual guys who fell out of the top 5-10 slot Foster was slotted in pre-Combine. This gives a much better picture of what happens when character/drug issues comes up. Using Gregory and Houston is flawed because they weren't mocked as top 10 guys, more at top 25-30 - they fell just as hard value-wise as the top 10 guys if you use the draft chart (arbitrary value, but it helps frame the point about depth of drop) - but the starting point changes where you end up. Don't believe me? Well, let's actually look at other top 5-10 talents who fell because of character/drug concerns and see how far they fell, and why. I'll also include the injury angle for top 10 guys (if I miss someone there for injuries, no worries for anyone else brought up).

So, here's a more indepth list of top 10 mocked guys (literally mocked in top 10 sometime that year) who fell hard for the reasons you're including (character, drugs), as that's the actual point made - but given we agree Foster was mocked at the elite top 10, let's stick there - let's compare apples to apples. These guys include (and I've included the sources that had them mocked top 10 and confirmed they fell due to issues off-the-field where applicable, just so you know it's not me just pulling it out of thin air):


Character/Drugs

Dez Bryant top 10 (Kiper Jan 10) to #24 (legal/character)
Nick Fairley top 3 (#1 Kiper Jan 11) to #13 (size/work ethic/character)
Warren Sapp top 5 (Sam Wyche confirmed) to #12 (drugs/character)
Randy Moss top 5-8 (agent rep confirmed, article in Sporting News 2015) to #21 (character, confirmed )
Dan Marino top 10 (drop confirmed by MIA Sun-Sentinel 2013 article) to #27 (drug rumor, debunked)
Laremy Tunsil top 5 to #16 (drug pic)

All top 10, all stayed in Rd 1.


Injury
Myles Jack top 10 to #33 (microfracture)
Michael Crabtree top 5 to #10 (foot)
Jaylon Smith - top 10-15 to early 3rd (nerve damage, career in doubt)

Jack 1 pick out of Rd 1, Crabtree still there, Jaylon Smith career known to be in doubt pre-draft. Not the case with Foster.


Legal (Prison)
Lael Collins top 10-15 undrafted (days b4 draft started, no info on felony criminal charges, so spectre of never playing a down there).


Do you see the drop? It was impressive for each of them (because a drop into the late teens or 20's is impressive, whether it's by the draft value chart, hundreds of points, or more importantly to the player, millions of $ lost) - and yet it's still nowhere close to what you are suggesting, except for 2 guys, one who had a murdered ex-girlfriend days before the draft started and no way to clear his name and whose career was in doubt if he was involved, and a guy who was known to miss at least 1 year, and maybe career-ending. And the other theme? These players' outcomes. They are why teams will even today still take a shot later in Rd 1 - because their ceiling is too good to pass over the guys left. One only has to look at Laremy Tunsil to see the example still holds now.

Now, a top 30 guy with concerns may fall to the top 75 because their risk doesn't make the difference in ceiling worth taking the shot. A top 50 guy could go outside the top 125. A top 100 guy might fall out of the draft - because the risk isn't worth the small ceiling gaps that teams see with other choices. But, a top 10 guy's ceiling quickly makes the risk worth it even later in Rd 1 - because the drop-off in talent really takes off then most years (even this one, I'd say early-mid 20's, you see it even in our current mock going on right now). Your original statement dismissing game film and where it puts Foster is ridiculous because starting point matters for the reasons above - and why so many others are pointing this out, no matter the semantics being put in your defence. Because it's just semantics.

Anyway you slice it, going from top 10 to Rd 3-4 best-case (your own words) is just not supported by draft history, unless Foster's career is seen in jeopardy. Which it's not. None of the above is a guarantee Foster will succeed as well as the best of that group. But the elite top 10 rank points to that ceiling, and why the drop only goes so far. And that's why dismissing game tape that ranks a player that highly to the point you start throwing out Rd 3-4 BEST-CASE is ridiculous, no matter how you cut it - once game tape puts you as an elite top 10 guy, the fall is different than if you're a top 30, or a top 50 guy. Again, not that hard to understand, but I trust the above helps cement why your original statements are still beyond ridiculous.

And if you aren't still convinced, concern-wise, which group of players does Foster fall into as far as the extent of concerns? You guessed it - the other guys NOT named Jaylon Smith or La'el Collins. No career is in doubt here at this stage. So yeah, still beyond ridiculous. A look at the NFL draft history, both remote and recent, for top 10 guys, shows the drop is significant, because going from top 10 to 20's is a huge drop for that player and the number of teams that pass them - but nowhere close to what you are saying. Even Tunsil's draft was all the talk last year.

So yeah, I've read just fine - those are all your words above. I've already admitted when I've cited the wrong poster - I'm never afraid to admit when I'm wrong. Draft history shows this isn't the case here.

I don't need to make the argument to support the statement that top 10 guys without career-ending concerns do not fall beyond Rd 1 - draft history does the work for me. I've shown the reasoning behind my statements, and it's hard, cold NFL draft history - can you show yours beyond extreme statements that you've posted above? I said I was done with Calhoun's discussion and I am, because there's nothing to add to that convo, but I offer the new info above to show why your view is beyond ridiculous - it's up to you to simply decide if you believe NFL draft history, and the group of top 10 ranked players who fell before, both in the distant and recent past. I know which side I'll take, thanks.

EDIT: quote formatting glitches, fixed now.


Not only do you fail to read it. But you blatantly edited it to make it seem like your not sticking your foot in your mouth like you do with CL.
Quote:

he is 3rd or 4th rounder at best right now. With im sure teams already taking him off their boards. If anything else pops up at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if he fell to late 3rd day. If at all drafted.


Since your wanting to split hairs, and twist what was said to turn the argument in your favor. I guess to impress other posters because you and I both know you jumped the gun with your accusations of me saying something I didn't and you were schooled repeatedly for the last few pages about how wrong you were.

As for the rest of your post. It's utter nonsense. You act as if it's never happened before and yet for prospects to fall out of the first round after being considered a first round talent.

La'el Collins, considered even to be a Top 20 talent. Went undrafted because of a rumor to be part of a murder investigation. Not even a suspect. But teams wanted no part of that. Something you clearly left out on purpose when you posted about him. Even though no one should think its a big deal. It was made to be.

Ryan Mallet, considered to be 1st round talent despite his drawbacks, despite his cons. Many considered his talent undisputed for the draft, and figured teams would be willing to overlook it for such a speciman. Fell to the 3rd because of character concerns.

Aaron Hernendez, what shocker that was? And nothing he's done since that would ever give NFL teams a reason for pause on character concerns right? Not for any potential draft prospects right? Cause he was money on the field. And fairly certain he was stated to go 2nd was he not? Fell to the 4th right?

Mario Manningham, considered a possible 1st rounder coming out. Lied about some failed drug tests, and scored low on that Wonderlic. Fell all the way to the 3rd round. At a position valued more then Fosters.

You failed miserably, or as I am guessing just completely ignored my comments about Justin Houston who displayed more during his time at Georgia and did outstanding at the combine, he makes Foster in so many freaking ways look inferior, from the value of both of the positions that they play, measurables since I seriously doubt Foster would have even come close to Houston. Not to mention HOuston was a sack artist coming out which is far more valued in the NFL and still dropped to the 3rd round.

You want to dispute the idea the idea that he won't fall out of the first thats fine. But here are some prime example that regardless of how good you look on tape, no matter how talented you are. You can still drop multiple rounds because of off the field concerns. Don't say anything else, your foot is taking up enough space there. Move along.
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GeneralDissaray wrote:
mozwanted wrote:
I don't agree with the pick.Bad teams pick rb's with a top 5 pick.
Moz, bad teams pick in the top 5.That's the way the draft works.
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DraftHobbyist


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow, not sure why Broncofan is getting attacked for clearly interpreting the comment as it was stated and intended. It's not like Broncofan was trying to take anything out of context. Yes, Calvert28, you said that if anything else happens, Foster could be pushed to late Day 3, but you also said (also quoted by you just not bolded) that he's currently a 4th Round guy. And what Broncofan is saying is that even calling Foster a 4th Round guy right now is to be a severe exaggeration.

Now that we have that cleared up, there is kind of a lot mounting for Foster but I still don't feel like it's enough to drop him very far. He apparently has some questions about childhood friends, but that's more of an association than anything. He has the injury, which many guys have, and should be kept separate from character. He had the blow-up with the nurse, but from everything reported, it wasn't a big issue. He has the weight issues, but that was apparently tied to being sick. That also allegedly caused a diluted test, which counts as a failed test, but is not the same as actually testing positive for a substance. So yeah, there is a lot here, but I feel like it's a lot of yellow flags rather than any red flags, and these yellow flags aren't turning into red flags because character and injury concerns are to be kept separate and not combined together. So maybe you ding him here and there to lower him a bit, but he also released the results of the test to the public himself, and so I don't see any reason to lower him significantly unless there is more behind the scenes that we don't know.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
As for the game tape comment itself it is ridiculous - because game tape put him in the top 5-10 range. Dismissing it minimizes the elite traits Foster displayed to get him that high even at a devalued position. I don't see how that's hard for people to understand either.


Exactly right, Broncofan.. thanks for saving me the time.

I can see Foster going from a top 10 to a mid-2nd even.. but you can not dismiss the game tape just for this piddly stuff. You just have to feel confident that you have the locker room and coaches to keep him in line and focused on improving himself on and off the field.

At the end of the day, arguing and ripping at fellow posters over such trivial things out of our control.. just feels silly. Love him.. hate him... hell, it don't much matter, in the grand scheme.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Calvert28 wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Calvert28 wrote:
Broncofan wrote:

it was Calvert's assertion that Foster was a Day 3 prospect. For which that post was the reply. Which you say you don't care about - but it's the context which makes the statement absurd. To now borrow your phrase genuinely - I don't see how this is hard for people to comprehend.



And again you failed to read.

I said if anything else pops up he may fall to late 3rd day. I think your just arguing for the sake of being right rather then arguing the actual point being made here and digging yourself a hole while at it. And you're well on your way to China with each new post.


Here's your original post as a refresher:

Calvert28 wrote:

he is 3rd or 4th rounder at best right now.... (later, the part about 1 more getting him undrafted is posted


The 4th round is Day 3 the last time I looked. I read it just fine. It's still utterly ridiculous. Rd 3 is equally ridiculous. And before we simply just go back and forth between us as to why or why not, to move the convo forward, rather than just go back and forth, I'll back it up with more in-depth draft history as new info to show you why your statement is still beyond ridiculous.

Here's a more relevant list of players beyond naming guys who failed who were top 5 picks - actual guys who fell out of the top 5-10 slot Foster was slotted in pre-Combine. This gives a much better picture of what happens when character/drug issues comes up. Using Manningham and Houston is flawed because they weren't mocked as top 10 guys, more at top 25-30 - they fell just as hard value-wise as the top 10 guys if you use the draft chart (arbitrary value, but it helps frame the point about depth of drop) - but the starting point changes where you end up. Don't believe me? Well, let's actually look at other top 5-10 talents who fell because of character/drug concerns and see how far they fell, and why. I'll also include the injury angle for top 10 guys (if I miss someone there for injuries, no worries for anyone else brought up).

So, here's a more indepth list of top 10 mocked guys (literally mocked in top 10 sometime that year) who fell hard for the reasons you're including (character, drugs), as that's the actual point made - but given we agree Foster was mocked at the elite top 10, let's stick there - let's compare apples to apples. These guys include (and I've included the sources that had them mocked top 10 and confirmed they fell due to issues off-the-field where applicable, just so you know it's not me just pulling it out of thin air):


Character/Drugs

Dez Bryant top 10 (Kiper Jan 10) to #24 (legal/character)
Nick Fairley top 3 (#1 Kiper Jan 11) to #13 (size/work ethic/character)
Warren Sapp top 5 (Sam Wyche confirmed) to #12 (drugs/character)
Randy Moss top 5-8 (agent rep confirmed, article in Sporting News 2015) to #21 (character, confirmed )
Dan Marino top 10 (drop confirmed by MIA Sun-Sentinel 2013 article) to #27 (drug rumor, debunked)
Laremy Tunsil top 5 to #16 (drug pic)

All top 10, all stayed in Rd 1.


Injury
Myles Jack top 10 to #33 (microfracture)
Michael Crabtree top 5 to #10 (foot)
Jaylon Smith - top 10-15 to early 3rd (nerve damage, career in doubt)

Jack 1 pick out of Rd 1, Crabtree still there, Jaylon Smith career known to be in doubt pre-draft. Not the case with Foster.


Legal (Prison)
Lael Collins top 10-15 undrafted (days b4 draft started, no info on felony criminal charges, so spectre of never playing a down there).


Do you see the drop? It was impressive for each of them (because a drop into the late teens or 20's is impressive, whether it's by the draft value chart, hundreds of points, or more importantly to the player, millions of $ lost) - and yet it's still nowhere close to what you are suggesting, except for 2 guys, one who had a murdered ex-girlfriend days before the draft started and no way to clear his name and whose career was in doubt if he was involved, and a guy who was known to miss at least 1 year, and maybe career-ending. And the other theme? These players' outcomes. They are why teams will even today still take a shot later in Rd 1 - because their ceiling is too good to pass over the guys left. One only has to look at Laremy Tunsil to see the example still holds now.

Now, a top 30 guy with concerns may fall to the top 75 because their risk doesn't make the difference in ceiling worth taking the shot. A top 50 guy could go outside the top 125. A top 100 guy might fall out of the draft - because the risk isn't worth the small ceiling gaps that teams see with other choices. But, a top 10 guy's ceiling quickly makes the risk worth it even later in Rd 1 - because the drop-off in talent really takes off then most years (even this one, I'd say early-mid 20's, you see it even in our current mock going on right now). Your original statement dismissing game film and where it puts Foster is ridiculous because starting point matters for the reasons above - and why so many others are pointing this out, no matter the semantics being put in your defence. Because it's just semantics.

Anyway you slice it, going from top 10 to Rd 3-4 best-case (your own words) is just not supported by draft history, unless Foster's career is seen in jeopardy. Which it's not. None of the above is a guarantee Foster will succeed as well as the best of that group. But the elite top 10 rank points to that ceiling, and why the drop only goes so far. And that's why dismissing game tape that ranks a player that highly to the point you start throwing out Rd 3-4 BEST-CASE is ridiculous, no matter how you cut it - once game tape puts you as an elite top 10 guy, the fall is different than if you're a top 30, or a top 50 guy. Again, not that hard to understand, but I trust the above helps cement why your original statements are still beyond ridiculous.

And if you aren't still convinced, concern-wise, which group of players does Foster fall into as far as the extent of concerns? You guessed it - the other guys NOT named Jaylon Smith or La'el Collins. No career is in doubt here at this stage. So yeah, still beyond ridiculous. A look at the NFL draft history, both remote and recent, for top 10 guys, shows the drop is significant, because going from top 10 to 20's is a huge drop for that player and the number of teams that pass them - but nowhere close to what you are saying. Even Tunsil's draft was all the talk last year.

So yeah, I've read just fine - those are all your words above. I've already admitted when I've cited the wrong poster - I'm never afraid to admit when I'm wrong. Draft history shows this isn't the case here.

I don't need to make the argument to support the statement that top 10 guys without career-ending concerns do not fall beyond Rd 1 - draft history does the work for me. I've shown the reasoning behind my statements, and it's hard, cold NFL draft history - can you show yours beyond extreme statements that you've posted above? I said I was done with Calhoun's discussion and I am, because there's nothing to add to that convo, but I offer the new info above to show why your view is beyond ridiculous - it's up to you to simply decide if you believe NFL draft history, and the group of top 10 ranked players who fell before, both in the distant and recent past. I know which side I'll take, thanks.

EDIT: quote formatting glitches, fixed now.


Not only do you fail to read it. But you blatantly edited it to make it seem like your not sticking your foot in your mouth like you do with CL.
Quote:

he is 3rd or 4th rounder at best right now. With im sure teams already taking him off their boards. If anything else pops up at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if he fell to late 3rd day. If at all drafted.


Since your wanting to split hairs, and twist what was said to turn the argument in your favor. I guess to impress other posters because you and I both know you jumped the gun with your accusations of me saying something I didn't and you were schooled repeatedly for the last few pages about how wrong you were.

As for the rest of your post. It's utter nonsense. You act as if it's never happened before and yet for prospects to fall out of the first round after being considered a first round talent.

La'el Collins, considered even to be a Top 20 talent. Went undrafted because of a rumor to be part of a murder investigation. Not even a suspect. But teams wanted no part of that.

Ryan Mallet, considered to be 1st round talent despite his drawbacks, despite his cons. Many considered his talent undisputed for the draft, and figured teams would be willing to overlook it for such a speciman. Fell to the 3rd because of character concerns.

Aaron Hernendez, what shocker that was? And nothing he's done since that would ever give NFL teams a reason for pause on character concerns right? Not for any potential draft prospects right? Cause he was money on the field. And fairly certain he was stated to go 2nd was he not? Fell to the 4th right?

Mario Manningham, considered a possible 1st rounder coming out. Lied about some failed drug tests, and scored low on that Wonderlic. Fell all the way to the 3rd round. At a position valued more then Fosters.

You failed miserably, or as I am guessing just completely ignored my comments about Justin Houston who displayed more during his time at Georgia and did outstanding at the combine, he makes Foster in so many freaking ways look inferior, from the value of both of the positions that they play, measurables since I seriously doubt Foster would have even come close to Houston. Not to mention HOuston was a sack artist coming out which is far more valued in the NFL and still dropped to the 3rd round.

You want to dispute the idea the idea that he won't fall out of the first thats fine. But here are some prime example that regardless of how good you look on tape, no matter how talented you are. You can still drop multiple rounds because of off the field concerns. Don't say anything else, your foot is taking up enough space there. Move along.


What's ridiculous is your ignoring your very own statement - Rd 3-4 prospect at best. You certainly said the rest about another setback - but that's not what makes the statement ridiculous by itself. Rd 3-4 at best is ridiculous for a top 10 prospect.

As for your examples - you aren't seriously saying a top 30 guy is the same as a top 10 guy? If so, then we might as well stop talking. But if you agree with that really basic premise, then you have a problem with all your examples. All of your examples were not top 10 prospects when their issues dropped them. Manningham was in the 20-30 range, Houston was even later, same with Mallett, and Hernandez wasn't even a top 30 prospect.

Don't believe me? Again, you don't have to. Draft links from national sources confirm. Shall we?

1. Aaron Hernandez - in your own words, projected to go Rd 2. Fell to Rd 4. So you admit he isn't in the same boat as a top 10 prospect, right? Or at least I hope so.


2. Mario Manningham - Fewer links being so long ago, but a few are still around & reliable -
http://www.footballsfuture.com/2008/prospects/mario_manningham.html
http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2008/3/3/211429/6460 (McShay's mock) -
That was immediately post-combine, and he's in the late 20's and talk of Day 2 because of his slow 4.6 time. Then, after the lying-about-drug tests came out in April, he fell to Round 3. Again, NOT a top 10 overall prospect at the time, only at the end of Rd 1. So, again, how did he qualify as a top 10 guy because of the drug allegations? Or, do you consider a top 30 guy the same as a top 10 guy? If you say they're the same...well, I've got 15-20 teams who likely disagree with you each year.


3. Justin Houston - http://www.bigblueview.com/2011/3/17/2054512/2011-nfl-draft-prospect-profile-justin-houston-de-lb-georgia - note that the story has 3 main projection sites from March 2011 - and the kicker? The positive test wasn't disclosed until APRIL. CBS - top 50. NFL - Day 2. Same with 3rd site. Houston fell to Round 2 post-Combine because of other guys rising. The drug test came out in April (April 11 - http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/26/report-justin-houston-christian-ballard-failed-drug-test-at-combine/). Again, helps to have the actual facts on where guys were when their news came out. But here, Houston isn't just in the top 30, but already out, before the allegations come out in April. Still think he applies to Foster?

4. Ryan Mallett - again, wasn't even close to a top 10 prospect when his drug admission came out at the Combine. At earliest CBS & NFL had him in the mid-20's, some even in the early 2nd - http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/08/talk-continues-of-potential-draft-day-plunge-for-ryan-mallett/ - that's pre-Combine, Feb. 8, and well before he admitted to marijuana use. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2011/02/pick-six-which-quarterback-from-2011-draft-will-prove-best/1#.WPnL_VP1BR4 falling - again, Feb. 21, just before the Combine - Mayock wouldn't take him Day 2. And all for non-drug issues. Drug admission and character issues did drop him further - but he was already outside Rd 1 before that happened. Like the others.


5. La'el Collins - now for sure, he was top 10 pre-draft when the drama unfolded. And you did mention he was innocent, but then you left out that he was cleared AFTER the draft - which is exactly why he fell. It wasn't a character issue, it was a "will he even play a down?" issue. You really saying that's the same here? I'm surprised you need a reminder, being 2 years ago, but just so it's clear - http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/15/lael-collins-nfl-draft-dallas-cowboys-murder-investigation.

Career completely in doubt, and not cleared until the Monday after the draft. Is Foster's career in doubt? Hardly. But you want to use that example and say it applies to Foster? Really?

_____________________________


So.. when you actually look at where all your guys actually ranked back when their issues dropped them further, you do realize your examples just supported the point that top 10 guys don't fall as hard as top 30 (or later guys) without career-ending concerns? And you conveniently left out the point already made about Collins that like Jaylon Smith, but for different reasons, his career was very much in doubt that weekend? Are you still taking that stance after seeing where guys actually were?

Now, that was a while back for a lot of guys except Collins, so maybe you didn't remember all of the above. That's fair. But now, with the hard info in front of you, are you still saying that those 4 guys who were top 30 or later, or La'el Collins, who teams wondered if he was connected to a murder and couldn't get clearance confirmation until after the draft (and the day he was cleared, 29 teams called him), are in the SAME boat as Foster, who is a clear top 10 pick, and no career in jeopardy? Because while you came off with another strongly worded post...with the facts, your examples actually point the other way. Again.

To be fair to you, you only went off memory. But draft history clearly shows you are comparing apples to oranges. Unless you consider top 30 picks and top 10 picks to be equivalent. I'm going to side with no on that one, but that's your call. I appreciate you adding new info - but the examples only reinforced the point made, . You didn't have the actual hard info, just went off memory - with the hard info now, you're free to revise your position on whether or not their examples apply to Foster.

Foster is clearly a top 10 prospect pre-Combine. I'll assume no one disputes that. So again I'll make it bold so there's no misunderstanding - are you suggesting a top 30 prospect is the same as a top 10 prospect? . Is that your point above using those guys? Because again, draft history, when you go off the facts, doesn't support that. Now, again, it's easy to misremember, but with the actual projections at that time from national sources, is that the position you still hold to? I'd hope not.

Hey, if you want to back off your original statement, be my guest. Draft history from my and your examples both say you should. And if that's not what you really meant, then bygones. But it is what you posted. Clear as day. If you just wanted to say "one more problem and he's going Day 3" and not that he was a Rd3-4 prospect at best, well, it's what you posted. Draft history clearly shows top 10 prospects do not fall that far as you've said...but hey, if you want to stick to that position, even though your own examples prove they don't (guys who are projected later when the news comes out can fall that far, sure, which your examples point to, but not guys in Foster's class), then it's your call.

You can choose to make more comments about holes & feet. I'll choose the actual facts on the draft prospects and guys who were truly top 10 when their issues came up. You can keep choosing to use guys that don't fit. Frankly, sooner or later, I'm sure there are the exceptions to the rule. But as draft history has shown, your statement (Rd 3-4 best case scenario) is the exception here and to an extreme, to the point of being ridiculous. It's just whether or not you choose to see it for what it is.

As promised, like before, unless I have new to add, though, I'm done. I trust the actual hard tangible info added on to your examples shows them in a new light - one driven by actual facts. If you have something new, always welcome - but also be ready if the info you provide actually points away from your stance. Draft history certainly points that way, and frankly, it's not even close.
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tom cody


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, this will hurt him. The guy had some character ? already, this certainly won't help him.
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