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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:50 am    Post subject: The Defense: How bad has it been? Well, it could be worse... Reply with quote

So, in reading over a bunch of posts, I recall turtle28 saying that last year was the worst he's seen in his life. However, I cannot find what thread it was posted in.

Now, turtle, I'm not trying to call you out. I wanted to see how bad the Redskins defenses have been over the past few years. So, I pulled up the DVOA stats from Football Outsiders(*). I took our overall defensive DVOA and our weighted DVOAfor each given year (and their respective ranks in that year) during the Snyder era. If you need a small refresher on these two stats, check out:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#weighted_dvoa

The short version is for defenses, you want a small number. Negative is even better.

So, without further ado, here's how we did:
Code:
Ordered by Year
---------------
            TOTAL         WEIGHTED
        DVOA    RANK    DVOA    RANK
1999     7.1%   24       4.4%   21
2000    -8.4%   10     -10.1%   11
2001    -8.5%   7      -18.2%   1
2002    -5.9%   8      -10.6%   6
2003     8.6%   24      10.1%   26
2004   -15.4%   4      -16.5%   4
2005   -11.6%   4      -14.0%   3
2006    15.0%   32      16.2%   31
2007    -7.9%   7       -6.8%   7
2008    -3.4%   10      -1.1%   13
2009    -2.1%   12      -3.5%   11
2010     5.8%   26       6.8%   27
2011    -1.2%   14       1.8%   18
2012     1.8%   17      -2.0%   13
2013     4.2%   21      -0.1%   17
2014     9.9%   27      13.5%   30
2015     5.4%   21       5.0%   20
2016     7.3%   25       7.8%   27

Ordered by Total DVOA
---------------------
            TOTAL         WEIGHTED
        DVOA    RANK    DVOA    RANK
2004   -15.4%   4      -16.5%   4
2005   -11.6%   4      -14.0%   3
2001    -8.5%   7      -18.2%   1
2000    -8.4%   10     -10.1%   11
2007    -7.9%   7       -6.8%   7
2002    -5.9%   8      -10.6%   6
2008    -3.4%   10      -1.1%   13
2009    -2.1%   12      -3.5%   11
2011    -1.2%   14       1.8%   18
2012     1.8%   17      -2.0%   13
2013     4.2%   21      -0.1%   17
2015     5.4%   21       5.0%   20
2010     5.8%   26       6.8%   27
1999     7.1%   24       4.4%   21
2016     7.3%   25       7.8%   27
2003     8.6%   24      10.1%   26
2014     9.9%   27      13.5%   30
2006    15.0%   32      16.2%   31

Ordered by Weighted DVOA
------------------------
            TOTAL         WEIGHTED
        DVOA    RANK    DVOA    RANK
2001    -8.5%   7      -18.2%   1
2004   -15.4%   4      -16.5%   4
2005   -11.6%   4      -14.0%   3
2002    -5.9%   8      -10.6%   6
2000    -8.4%   10     -10.1%   11
2007    -7.9%   7       -6.8%   7
2009    -2.1%   12      -3.5%   11
2012     1.8%   17      -2.0%   13
2008    -3.4%   10      -1.1%   13
2013     4.2%   21      -0.1%   17
2011    -1.2%   14       1.8%   18
1999     7.1%   24       4.4%   21
2015     5.4%   21       5.0%   20
2010     5.8%   26       6.8%   27
2016     7.3%   25       7.8%   27
2003     8.6%   24      10.1%   26
2014     9.9%   27      13.5%   30
2006    15.0%   32      16.2%   31



Sorry for the big wall of numbers. A couple of things to take away from this:
1. As bad as 2016 was defensively, it was not the worst we've seen around these parts. Statistically speaking, 2014 was a worse defense in recent times. However, 2006 was ATROCIOUSLY bad. I remember that year: Sean Taylor looked completely lost and Walt Harris was compared to a trash can that you would put on a practice field for offenses to simulate defenders against. It was straight up disastrous.

2. An interesting trend came up from these numbers. Early in Snyder's tenure, the Redskins would have a year of crappy defense (1999, 2003, 2006) and then two or three years of top notch defenses (2000/2001/2002, 2004/2005, 2007/2008/2009), with only 2009 statistically not being top ten overall (it was 12th). To be fair, the Redskins did have multiple non-top ten years during the "good years" when examined via the weighted DVOA, but those were 11th (2000), 13th (2008), and 11th (2009).

Think about for a second: the defense was for most of the 2000s a top ten defense, regardless of the coaching staff in charge (there were five staffs (six if you count Robiskie) leading the team during that time). In fact, I bet you are surprised to see that the worst defense would have been under Gibbs' reign with the third worst during that span coming during the 1999 division winning year.

That is also arguably two to three rotations of talent over that time frame, if you assume a 4-5 year career for a player with a given team in the free agency era.

3. From 2010 onward, we've been meh at best (2011/2012) and more often than not somewhere on the range of subpar (2013, 2015) to crappy (2010, 2014, 2016).

Again, think on this: statistically speaking, the defense under Jim Zorn in 2009 performed better than any defense than we have seen since. That's a team that finished 4-12 and witnessed their head coach get publicly undermined by the owner.




(*) The joys of branding mean they cannot change their name, but they're not really "outsiders" anymore since they get a fair amount of coverage via ESPN.
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's the top 2 starting defensive units we've had in the in Snyder era then Woz:

2004

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/washington-redskins/roster/2004?sort=pos

(# of games started)

DE - Phillip Daniels (5), Demetric Evans (8)
DT - Cornelius Griffin (15), Jermaine Haley (1), Ryan Boschetti (1)
DT - Joe Salave'a (9), Brandon Noble (7)
DE - Renaldo Wynn (16), Chris Clemons (0)

OLB - Lavar Arrington (2), Lemar Marshall (14)
MLB - Antonio Pierce (16), Brandon Barnes (0)
OLB - Marcus Washington 16), Khary Campbell (0)

CB - Shawn Springs (15), Walt Harris (2)
CB - Fred Smoot (15), Ade Jimoh (0), Todd Franz (0)
FS - Ryan Clark (11), Matt Bowen (5)
SS - Sean Taylor (13), Andre Lott (3)


2005

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/washington-redskins/roster/2005?sort=pos

(# of games started)

DE - Phillip Daniels (16), Demetric Evans (3)
DT - Cornelius Griffin (12), Ryan Boschetti (1)
DT - Joe Salave'a (13), Cedric Killings (1)
DE - Renaldo Wynn (15), Chris Clemons (1)

OLB - Lavar Arrington (8), Warrick Holdman (7)
MLB - Lemar Marshall (16), Robert McCune (0)
OLB - Marcus Washington (16), Khary Campbell (0)

CB - Shawn Springs (15), Carlos Rogers (5)
CB - Walt Harris (12), Ade Jimoh (0), Todd Franz (0)
FS - Ryan Clark (13), Matt Bowen (1)
SS - Sean Taylor (15), Pierson Prioleau (6)

Three things that really jump out at me. First, a lot of continuity between the two years. Second, these teams were designed to stop the run first. Pretty much the opposite of what our defense is now. However, the game has change quite a bit since this time so not sure how much you can take away from that.

Third, there isn't a lot of star power in these units, mostly an assemblage of quality role players with good coaching. Sean Taylor is obviously the best talent here, but it was his first two years in the league, and if you remember he did struggle at times early on. He was playing SS too. Shawn Springs was a legit #1 CB, so he's probably the next best player on the list. But our Dline was mostly a bunch of above average guys with no stars, our LBing core had no weaknesses but no star power. Although Marcus Washington was a pretty good pass rusher from the edge, Lavar was pretty much a shell of his talents at this point.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eh, the league was definitely turning pass happy by the mid-00's if it wasn't there already.

If a team has players that know their roles and responsibilities, who do not have to think of what to do but just act/react, then the team's defense will be that much better. That's where the advantage of consistency comes in.


Also, ADE JIMOH SIGHTING!!!
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Eh, the league was definitely turning pass happy by the mid-00's if it wasn't there already.

If a team has players that know their roles and responsibilities, who do not have to think of what to do but just act/react, then the team's defense will be that much better. That's where the advantage of consistency comes in.


Also, ADE JIMOH SIGHTING!!!
And Robert McCune.
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mar29020


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

probably the worst situational defense in clutch situations i have seen. it will be bad again this year and then everyone will be fired. the writing is on the wall.
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We've also had the most injured defense by far since Gruden took over:

Quote:
AGL by Head Coach (2002-2016)
The following table ranks all coaches with at least three seasons by AGL from healthiest to most injured. Since the league average AGL has gone up so much over this period of time with changes to injury reporting, it makes more sense to focus on the z-score ranking, which is the column the coaches are ranked by. This way the coach is being compared to how many standard deviations he is above or below the league average AGL for each season. But we did also include where his average rank is in total AGL and his average rank per season. For anyone who was replaced by an interim coach, their record listed below includes all of the games from that season. Active coaches are in bold.


Quote:
We talked about McCoy, but Jay Gruden has not had much injury luck either in his three years with Washington. He ranks next to last in z-score at minus-1.2. Gruden is an offensive-minded coach, which is good since he has had the most injured defense by far in our database. Gruden's average defensive AGL is 70.5. The next closest coach is Dennis Allen at 46.6 AGL in Oakland. McCoy has had the most injured offense (61.5 AGL), but defensive guru Mike Zimmer (55.8 AGL) is awfully close after having the most injured offense we have ever tracked with the 2016 Vikings. Again, these numbers are slanted towards the last few seasons since AGL in general has gone up, but they are still interesting to see for context. Gruden has done very good things with Kirk Cousins and the offense, and maybe would have won more games if he had healthier bodies on defense. The same can be said of Zimmer's Minnesota teams, which need more of an offensive boost after clearly improving on defense under his leadership.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Someone else said they were the worst defense last year (I think it was Lavar or HTTR), I countered and said they were only the worst at 3rd down percentage mainly because their saifeties weren't worth a crap especially when being asked to come up tackle a wr or TE short of the sticks.

The statement I made in a thread was that it was the worst Redskins defense I can think of since I was born, which was 1979 and this didn't just start with Joe Barry, the Redskins began to suck defensively when Mike Shanahan took over personnel decisions in 2010. We all expected it to get better when McCloughan took over in 2015 but it hasn't, arguably our defense has regressed form the 2012, 2013 & 2014 defenses that Shanahan, Allen and Haz put together to today.
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Last edited by turtle28 on Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
Here's the top 2 starting defensive units we've had in the in Snyder era then Woz:

2004

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/washington-redskins/roster/2004?sort=pos

(# of games started)

DE - Phillip Daniels (5), Demetric Evans (Cool
DT - Cornelius Griffin (15), Jermaine Haley (1), Ryan Boschetti (1)
DT - Joe Salave'a (9), Brandon Noble (7)
DE - Renaldo Wynn (16), Chris Clemons (0)

OLB - Lavar Arrington (2), Lemar Marshall (14)
MLB - Antonio Pierce (16), Brandon Barnes (0)
OLB - Marcus Washington 16), Khary Campbell (0)

CB - Shawn Springs (15), Walt Harris (2)
CB - Fred Smoot (15), Ade Jimoh (0), Todd Franz (0)
FS - Ryan Clark (11), Matt Bowen (5)
SS - Sean Taylor (13), Andre Lott (3)


2005

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/washington-redskins/roster/2005?sort=pos

(# of games started)

DE - Phillip Daniels (16), Demetric Evans (3)
DT - Cornelius Griffin (12), Ryan Boschetti (1)
DT - Joe Salave'a (13), Cedric Killings (1)
DE - Renaldo Wynn (15), Chris Clemons (1)

OLB - Lavar Arrington (Cool, Warrick Holdman (7)
MLB - Lemar Marshall (16), Robert McCune (0)
OLB - Marcus Washington (16), Khary Campbell (0)

CB - Shawn Springs (15), Carlos Rogers (5)
CB - Walt Harris (12), Ade Jimoh (0), Todd Franz (0)
FS - Ryan Clark (13), Matt Bowen (1)
SS - Sean Taylor (15), Pierson Prioleau (6)

Three things that really jump out at me. First, a lot of continuity between the two years. Second, these teams were designed to stop the run first. Pretty much the opposite of what our defense is now. However, the game has change quite a bit since this time so not sure how much you can take away from that.

Third, there isn't a lot of star power in these units, mostly an assemblage of quality role players with good coaching. Sean Taylor is obviously the best talent here, but it was his first two years in the league, and if you remember he did struggle at times early on. He was playing SS too. Shawn Springs was a legit #1 CB, so he's probably the next best player on the list. But our Dline was mostly a bunch of above average guys with no stars, our LBing core had no weaknesses but no star power. Although Marcus Washington was a pretty good pass rusher from the edge, Lavar was pretty much a shell of his talents at this point.
First thing that jumped out to me is that Gibbs, Williams and Cerrato invested heavily in our defense in free agency and the draft from 2004 through 2009 and that's why they became great.

If you want a great defense you must invest in players like Daniels, Wynn, Salavea, Griffin up front in free agency. Marcus Washington and Warrick Holdman in free agency at Lb. Springs, Bowen, Walt Harris, Clark and Pierson Prioleau in free agency in the secondary.

In the draft or UDFA Lavar, Antonio Pierce, Fred Smoot, Sean Taylor, Carlos Rogers, Lemar Marshall and Chris Clemons.

Then don't forget we signed Andre Carter in 06 and we drafted McIntosh with our top selection which was our 2nd round pick. Then, we signed Fletcher in 07, drafted Landry with our 1st round pick and in 07 and signed Haynesworth and drafted Orakpo with our 1st round pick in 09. Yes, Haynesworth was an overpay and a mistake but we still invested heavily in the defense which is something we haven't done much of since except for 2011 when our defense ranked 12th or 13th which, should surprise no one because we invested in it heavily that offseason.

I mean it shouldn't shock anyone that our defense was a top 5 at times and mostly a top 10 defense from 04-09 with that kind of talent on it.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
We've also had the most injured defense by far since Gruden took over:

Quote:
AGL by Head Coach (2002-2016)
The following table ranks all coaches with at least three seasons by AGL from healthiest to most injured. Since the league average AGL has gone up so much over this period of time with changes to injury reporting, it makes more sense to focus on the z-score ranking, which is the column the coaches are ranked by. This way the coach is being compared to how many standard deviations he is above or below the league average AGL for each season. But we did also include where his average rank is in total AGL and his average rank per season. For anyone who was replaced by an interim coach, their record listed below includes all of the games from that season. Active coaches are in bold.


Quote:
We talked about McCoy, but Jay Gruden has not had much injury luck either in his three years with Washington. He ranks next to last in z-score at minus-1.2. Gruden is an offensive-minded coach, which is good since he has had the most injured defense by far in our database. Gruden's average defensive AGL is 70.5. The next closest coach is Dennis Allen at 46.6 AGL in Oakland. McCoy has had the most injured offense (61.5 AGL), but defensive guru Mike Zimmer (55.8 AGL) is awfully close after having the most injured offense we have ever tracked with the 2016 Vikings. Again, these numbers are slanted towards the last few seasons since AGL in general has gone up, but they are still interesting to see for context. Gruden has done very good things with Kirk Cousins and the offense, and maybe would have won more games if he had healthier bodies on defense. The same can be said of Zimmer's Minnesota teams, which need more of an offensive boost after clearly improving on defense under his leadership.


By unit: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit

QB - 0.0 (1st-tied)
RB - 1.6 (11th)
WR - 2.6 (9th)
TE - 3.8 (13th-tied)
OL - 19.6 (23rd)

DL - 16.8 (26th)
LB - 20.3 (25th)
DB - 36.8 (31st)

Maybe it's just me, but I don't recall that many injuries. I'm not saying they didn't occur, I just don't remember them.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Someone else said they were the worst defense last year (I think it was Lavar or HTTR), I countered and said they were only the worst at 3rd down percentage mainly because their saifeties weren't worth a crap especially when being asked to come up tackle a wr or TE short of the sticks.

The statement I made in a thread was that it was the worst Redskins defense I can think of since I was born, which was 1979 and this didn't just start with Joe Barry, the Redskins began to suck defensively when Mike Shanahan took over personnel decisions in 2010. We all expected it to get better when McCloughan took over in 2015 but it hasn't, arguably our defense has regressed form the 2012, 2013 & 2014 defenses that Shanahan, Allen and Haz put together to today.


And my point was that it wasn't even the worst defense of the Snyder era.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
the Redskins began to suck defensively when Mike Shanahan took over personnel decisions in 2010. We all expected it to get better when McCloughan took over in 2015 but it hasn't, arguably our defense has regressed form the 2012, 2013 & 2014 defenses that Shanahan, Allen and Haz put together to today.


Umm, three things:

1. What Shanahan did in 2010 was bring in the 3-4. That meant that all of those pieces we had invested in were essentially jettisoned because they didn't fit. Sure, we kept some of them around and yes some of them were probably getting too long in the tooth, but at it's core, the main difference between 2000-2009 and 2010-current is the base defense. Even though we spend most of our time in the nickel, we draft and acquire talent from a 3-4 perspective, and then wonder why it doesn't work when we have to play four man fronts.

2. Given that 2014 was the second worst performance of our defense during the Snyder era, I think it's somewhat of a cheap to say "well, look, McCloughan didn't fix the defense in the two years he was here!" Again, look at the track record from 2011 to 2014

-1.2%
1.8%
4.2%
9.9%

It was trending the wrong way long before McCloughan got here. While 2015 and 2016 are not one would call good, they were better than the low water mark of the 2014 defense.

3. If you want to shed the idea of you being a "McCloughan hater," you might want to avoid taking pot shots out of left field by bringing up names that no one else mentions.
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any chance they are sneakily going back to a 4-3 this season?

Terelle McClain & Stacy McGee. Two guys who played 4-3 DT for their prior teams. Not exactly great fits as 3-4 DEs.

Zach Brown. A guy with experience playing LBer in a 4-3. In fact, if Cravens refuses to play Lber, Brown would be an ideal WLB in a 4-3, a guy we really didn't have if we wanted to make the switch.

Then look at the moves we didn't make.

We didn't retain Chris Baker, the best 3-4 Dlineman we had.

We haven't done anything at NT. But a guy like McGee could fill that role in a 4-3.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
the Redskins began to suck defensively when Mike Shanahan took over personnel decisions in 2010. We all expected it to get better when McCloughan took over in 2015 but it hasn't, arguably our defense has regressed form the 2012, 2013 & 2014 defenses that Shanahan, Allen and Haz put together to today.


Umm, three things:

1. What Shanahan did in 2010 was bring in the 3-4. That meant that all of those pieces we had invested in were essentially jettisoned because they didn't fit. Sure, we kept some of them around and yes some of them were probably getting too long in the tooth, but at it's core, the main difference between 2000-2009 and 2010-current is the base defense. Even though we spend most of our time in the nickel, we draft and acquire talent from a 3-4 perspective, and then wonder why it doesn't work when we have to play four man fronts.

2. Given that 2014 was the second worst performance of our defense during the Snyder era, I think it's somewhat of a cheap to say "well, look, McCloughan didn't fix the defense in the two years he was here!" Again, look at the track record from 2011 to 2014

-1.2%
1.8%
4.2%
9.9%

It was trending the wrong way long before McCloughan got here. While 2015 and 2016 are not one would call good, they were better than the low water mark of the 2014 defense.

3. If you want to shed the idea of you being a "McCloughan hater," you might want to avoid taking pot shots out of left field by bringing up names that no one else mentions.
Fair enough, I didn't check out every stat you posted, I just knew it had been trending poorly since 2010 and in 2010 I'd say it had to do with the switch to the 3-4, but ever since I'd disagree. In 2011 we were a top 15 defense and trending in the right direction until Carriker then Orakpo (reinjured his pec) and then Bowen all got hurt in 2012.

I'd be interested to know what the ranking of the 2014 defense was before Hall, Cofield and Orakpo got hurt. My feeling is that the defense was at least average until 3 of our top 5 players on that defense got hurt.

I'm sure it's two much work to find that out, I wouldn't ask you to and I'm Not going to do it but food for thought.

The only reason I brought up Scot was because it was a thing that all of Redskins Nation had wood like an oak tree after he was hired about our defense finally being fixed and getting back to a top 10 D, and I'm sorry for being honest, but it didn't happen and yes, it could have through just the draft, without even spending tens of millions of $ on it like we did in 04.

I know I expected an 04 type of offseason for our defense in 2015. Sadly, it didn't happen. Sad
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
Any chance they are sneakily going back to a 4-3 this season?

Terelle McClain & Stacy McGee. Two guys who played 4-3 DT for their prior teams. Not exactly great fits as 3-4 DEs.

Zach Brown. A guy with experience playing LBer in a 4-3. In fact, if Cravens refuses to play Lber, Brown would be an ideal WLB in a 4-3, a guy we really didn't have if we wanted to make the switch.

Then look at the moves we didn't make.

We didn't retain Chris Baker, the best 3-4 Dlineman we had.

We haven't done anything at NT. But a guy like McGee could fill that role in a 4-3.
The defense we run is a hybrid. So, like the last two years we will have some 3-4 and some 4-3 looks.

Our DL plays the gaps like this:

- One DE two-gaps as a 5 technique like in a traditional 3-4
- The other DE one gaps as a 3 technique and shoots that gap
- The NT plays the one technique and shoots that gap

We have been forced to play a 4-2-5 2/3 of the game or so since 2013 because of how much the league throws the ball now, which has hurt our run defense because we don't have traditional 280 to 290 pound 4-3 DEs. We are forced to play 270 pound OLBs as DEs - who get abused in the run game as DEs - and we only have 2 traditional linebackers on the field for 2/3 of the game which hurts our run defense and defending running backs out of the backfield.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Woz wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
the Redskins began to suck defensively when Mike Shanahan took over personnel decisions in 2010. We all expected it to get better when McCloughan took over in 2015 but it hasn't, arguably our defense has regressed form the 2012, 2013 & 2014 defenses that Shanahan, Allen and Haz put together to today.


Umm, three things:

1. What Shanahan did in 2010 was bring in the 3-4. That meant that all of those pieces we had invested in were essentially jettisoned because they didn't fit. Sure, we kept some of them around and yes some of them were probably getting too long in the tooth, but at it's core, the main difference between 2000-2009 and 2010-current is the base defense. Even though we spend most of our time in the nickel, we draft and acquire talent from a 3-4 perspective, and then wonder why it doesn't work when we have to play four man fronts.

2. Given that 2014 was the second worst performance of our defense during the Snyder era, I think it's somewhat of a cheap to say "well, look, McCloughan didn't fix the defense in the two years he was here!" Again, look at the track record from 2011 to 2014

-1.2%
1.8%
4.2%
9.9%

It was trending the wrong way long before McCloughan got here. While 2015 and 2016 are not one would call good, they were better than the low water mark of the 2014 defense.

3. If you want to shed the idea of you being a "McCloughan hater," you might want to avoid taking pot shots out of left field by bringing up names that no one else mentions.
Fair enough, I didn't check out every stat you posted, I just knew it had been trending poorly since 2010 and in 2010 I'd say it had to do with the switch to the 3-4, but ever since I'd disagree. In 2011 we were a top 15 defense and trending in the right direction until Carriker then Orakpo (reinjured his pec) and then Bowen all got hurt in 2012.

I'd be interested to know what the ranking of the 2014 defense was before Hall, Cofield and Orakpo got hurt. My feeling is that the defense was at least average until 3 of our top 5 players on that defense got hurt.

I'm sure it's two much work to find that out, I wouldn't ask you to and I'm Not going to do it but food for thought.


Actually, it was included in the original post. The weighted DVOA puts more emphasis on the later games in the season so it takes into account (in a coarse way). The Adjusted Games Lost value that HTTRG3Dynasty mentioned does that in a more fine-grained way, but I could not find data for what the values were beyond 2016 (when the defensive AGL was 31st) and 2015 (32nd). So, I'm not sure I would put all of the burden on the loss of those players since we had just as many defensive injuries the past two years.

2011
- Overall: -1.2% (14th)
- Weighted: 1.8% (18th)
2012
- Overall: 1.8% (17th)
- Weighted: -2.0% (13th)
2013
- Overall: 4.2% (21st)
- Weighted: -0.1% (17th)
2014
- Overall: 9.9% (27th)
- Weighted: 13.5% (30th)

So, yes, it slipped in 2014. However, the difference from 2013's overall to 2014's (5.7 points) was less than the overall to weighted inside of 2014 (3.6 points).

Quote:
The only reason I brought up Scot was because it was a thing that all of Redskins Nation had wood like an oak tree after he was hired about our defense finally being fixed and getting back to a top 10 D, and I'm sorry for being honest, but it didn't happen and yes, it could have through just the draft, without even spending tens of millions of $ on it like we did in 04.

I know I expected an 04 type of offseason for our defense in 2015. Sadly, it didn't happen. Sad


Ignoring the crassness of the lead in to the bolded comment, I think you are projecting your own desires on the fanbase as a whole. Speaking only for myself, I saw Scot McCloughan as someone who start looking at this team's construction in the future. While I hoped it would include improvements in the defense, I knew it wouldn't happen overnight. While there were decisions that I decried at the time, I understood that there was a plan in place.

I look back at the free spending days of the past decade and think "that is not something we should emulate again." It didn't work for the long term health of the franchise. Instead it put us in cap purgatory where we had to regularly shuffle contracts for older veterans to stay in compliance. So, I was not upset about us not going hog wild for lots of free agents like we did in 2003 and 2004 because history says it doesn't work. Before you point to the Giants, I would direct you to read the AGL article that HTTRG3Dynasty posted above because the Giants were racked with injuries these past few years ... until last year. Before we say "well it worked for New York!" let's see how it goes over the next couple of years.

So, the low key free agent moves didn't bother me (Norman doesn't count because he became available well after free agency started, but it showed that the front office would splurge for the right guy). Even the low-risk, low-reward trade for Goldson didn't bother me. Yes, he had a high salary but we had plenty of cap room as it was and it was attempt to fix a position with limited investment. No, it didn't work, but had Kyshoen Jarrett not suffered that career ending injury, we would barely even mention it. As it was, we shifted around a sixth round pick.

We've discussed his draft picks ad nauseum. I liked some moves, didn't like others. Some have panned out, some have not.

At the end of the day, my problem is that I feel like we're back to watching a franchise without a plan for success. I do not believe Bruce Allen can run the franchise competently. I do not believe he will look further than one year ahead, but instead will just react to whatever crisis of his making bubbles over.
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