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Wingmans Mock Draft V1.0(The Greatest Mock Ever, Believe Me)
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pgwingman


Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 479
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 10:56 am    Post subject: Wingmans Mock Draft V1.0(The Greatest Mock Ever, Believe Me) Reply with quote

PACKERS MOCK OFFSEASON: VERSION 1.0
NFL DRAFT

-The Packers select 29th
-Green Bay receives 5th round Comp pick for Casey Heyward


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 1, PICK 27 TRADED

-In an effort to shake things up, I opted to let TT trade this pick. I read on Twitter that both the Steelers and Saints brought in QB Pat Mahomes for a visit. For the purposes of this mock, I’ll say that Arizona trades up with Green Bay to leapfrog them (Steelers pick 30th, Saints pick 32) and select Mahomes, who is the eventual replacement to Carson Palmer.

Arizona trades their 2nd round pick (45 overall, 450 points on the draft value chart) and 3rd round pick (77 overall, 205 pts)for GB’s 1.29 pick (640 points).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 2, PICK 13, 45 OVERALL




Tyus Bowser, EDGE Houston, 6-3, 247lb
At this point in the draft, I could see Takk McKinley and TJ Watt gone, so TT takes the next best prospect. Bowser tested off the charts at the combine. He has enough athleticism to become a great pass rusher if he continues to develop.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 2, PICK 29, 61 OVERALL




Desmond King, DB Iowa, 5-10, 201lb
King was a ballhawk who lacks the size and speed to play on the outside in the NFL. However, he was a lockdown for Iowa, and that's worth something. I picture him replacing Hyde.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 3, PICK 13, 77 OVERALL




Sidney Jones, CB Washington, 6-0, 186lb
Jones suffers an Achillies injury, and is pushes him down this far. It’s possible he gets selected earlier than this, but the plethora of talented CBs pushes him down. He can be stashed away for a while the inevitable injuries pile up for us this coming season.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 3, PICK 29, 93 OVERALL




Marlon Mack, RB South Florida, 5-11, 213lb

Mack has the breakaway speed that leads to home runs. Six of his 15 touchdowns were from 43 yards. He could be a pretty nice option sprinkled in Monty.
.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 4, PICK 28, 134 OVERALL




Dawuanne Smoot, EDGE Illinois, 6-3, 264lb
He had a productive 2015, but fell off in 2016. Scouting reports him as athletic enough to play in a 3-4 as an EDGE. He has power, but has been more disruptive than productive. He draws NFL comparisons to Nick Perry, which I take to mean that he can be coached on some of finer points of pass rushing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 5, PICK 29, 172 OVERALL




Chase Roullier, OG/C Arkansas, 6-5, 253lb
Interior Linemen with a quick 3 Cone time. Experience at both Guard and Center. With Spriggs locked in at the 3rd OT, I would have Roullier as our interior swingman

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 5, PICK 39 (COMPENSATORY), 182 OVERALL




Stevie Tu’ikolovatu, DT USC, 6-1, 331lb
I think one area of need that could be problematic for us could be the interior of this defensive line. Guion will be out for the first four games of the season, and Ringo has yet to be very effective. Big Stevie is added as an anchor in the middle.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 6, PICK 29, 212 OVERALL




Corey Levin , OL Tennessee Chattanooga, 6-4, 307lb
Another interior linemen who tested with a quick 3-cone time (7.55 sec, 5th fastest for OL at combine), and played LT and LG in college.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUND 7, PICK 29, 247 OVERALL




Top TE prospect left, TE , 6-5, 253lb
I think this draft is too loaded at TE not to stock up on a developmental project. Cole Hikutini (Louisville), Michael Roberts (Toledo), Eric Saubert (Drake) are all worth a look here.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Updated Roster


Offense
QB - Rodgers, Hundley, Callahan (3)
RB - Montgomery, Micheal, Mack, Ripkowski (4)
WR - Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Davis, Janis, Allison (6)
TE - Bennett, Rodgers, Kendricks, Draft Pick (4)
OT - Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Spriggs, Murphy (4)
OG/C - Taylor, Barclay, Linsley, Roullier, Levin (5)
Total = 26

Defense
DT/DE: Clark, Daniels, Lowry, Ringo, Guion (SUS), Tu’ikolovatu (Moved to PS when/if Guion returns), Jean-Francois (7)
OLB: Matthews, Perry, Elliot, Bowser, Smoot (5)
ILB: Ryan, Martinez, Thomas (4)
S: Clinton-Dix, Burnett, Brice, King (4)
CB: Randall, Rollins, House, Gunter, Dorleant (5)
Total = 25

PUP
Jones

Special Teams (3)
K: Crosby
P: Schum
LS: Goode
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NormSizedMidget


Joined: 28 Mar 2011
Posts: 17890
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You lied.

What happened with Mack lately? I was talking about him a while back but this past week he's everywhere with packers fans. Good pro day or something?
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CentralFC


Joined: 03 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Norm, people were talking about Mack a long time ago.

Love the mock, especially the value grabs. King seems like a TT guy even if the measurables aren't there.
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packerjmf wrote:
GWH87 wrote:
Somebody take the off season shovel out of Ted's hands & bury him in his own hole.

How can he dig a hole if he's too busy sitting on his hands?
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Pugger


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Location: Green Bay for the summer.
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd be surprised if Ted took Sidney Jones with that injury.
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pgwingman


Joined: 13 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pugger wrote:
I'd be surprised if Ted took Sidney Jones with that injury.


I think you're right, you could just as easily put any CB with a 3rd round grade in that slot. I figured that by the time the injury was rehabbed the team would have a much clearer 2018 picture of House/Gunter.
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pgwingman


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CentralFC wrote:
Norm, people were talking about Mack a long time ago.

Love the mock, especially the value grabs. King seems like a TT guy even if the measurables aren't there.


I think you're right. He isn't that fast, but do his instincts make up for that?
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pgwingman


Joined: 13 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NormSizedMidget wrote:
You lied.


Ok.

Quote:
What happened with Mack lately? I was talking about him a while back but this past week he's everywhere with packers fans. Good pro day or something?


Nothing particularly special, I was just looking for mid-round values. Grading mid-round backs feels impossible, because they each have a different style. How would you replace Lacy, or compliment Monty? Rip isn't a bad short yardage guy, is that enough to replace Lacy?
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Jaegybomb


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want to compliment Monty get someone who can actually pass block.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2337
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

High Ceiling/Low Floor Special IMO.

Not that there's anything wrong with that, although it's a bit too boom/bust overall for my liking.

Bowser- You get a stud EDGE/ You end up with an ILB

King- You get a solid CB/ You end up with a Safety

Jones- You get a stud CB/ You get an athletically diminished rail-thin CB

Mack- Medium Floor, High Ceiling... I like

Smoot- Medium Floor, Low Ceiling IMO

Roullier- Center Only IMO, Struggles with 2nd Level Blocks and that concern wasn't alleviated with a 1.93 split.... Don't view him as a fit at guard for GB tbh.

Tu'ikolovatu- I don't really like the DL class or see the need, but he's fine.

Levin- Least favorite of all TT OL types.... He wasn't as dominant as I would have liked to see in the FCS. Massive jump in competition, but he has the frame and I think he has a chance.

Not my style, but well done. Thanks for the read!
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CentralFC


Joined: 03 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pgwingman wrote:
CentralFC wrote:
Norm, people were talking about Mack a long time ago.

Love the mock, especially the value grabs. King seems like a TT guy even if the measurables aren't there.


I think you're right. He isn't that fast, but do his instincts make up for that?


Problem is, if the speed trails off even a bit, his game might be shot. You can't mask 4.7/4.75 speed. I also don't think this defense is capable enough to add a guy who relies on instinct.
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packerjmf wrote:
GWH87 wrote:
Somebody take the off season shovel out of Ted's hands & bury him in his own hole.

How can he dig a hole if he's too busy sitting on his hands?
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pgwingman


Joined: 13 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaegybomb wrote:
If you want to compliment Monty get someone who can actually pass block.


Mike McCarthy has said that it takes a while for RBs to pick up pass blocking. I'm assuming Monty will get better after an offseason of training.
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pgwingman


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
High Ceiling/Low Floor Special IMO.

Not that there's anything wrong with that, although it's a bit too boom/bust overall for my liking.

Bowser- You get a stud EDGE/ You end up with an ILB

King- You get a solid CB/ You end up with a Safety

Jones- You get a stud CB/ You get an athletically diminished rail-thin CB

Mack- Medium Floor, High Ceiling... I like

Smoot- Medium Floor, Low Ceiling IMO

Roullier- Center Only IMO, Struggles with 2nd Level Blocks and that concern wasn't alleviated with a 1.93 split.... Don't view him as a fit at guard for GB tbh.

Tu'ikolovatu- I don't really like the DL class or see the need, but he's fine.

Levin- Least favorite of all TT OL types.... He wasn't as dominant as I would have liked to see in the FCS. Massive jump in competition, but he has the frame and I think he has a chance.

Not my style, but well done. Thanks for the read!


Thanks!

I didn't really plan it that way, but I see your point.

Regarding the two G/C prospects, what stats would you be looking at? I thought the 3 cone times was the closest representation of the agility required play the position.
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pgwingman


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CentralFC wrote:
pgwingman wrote:
CentralFC wrote:
Norm, people were talking about Mack a long time ago.

Love the mock, especially the value grabs. King seems like a TT guy even if the measurables aren't there.


I think you're right. He isn't that fast, but do his instincts make up for that?


Problem is, if the speed trails off even a bit, his game might be shot. You can't mask 4.7/4.75 speed. I also don't think this defense is capable enough to add a guy who relies on instinct.


I see your point. But does he actually have 4.7 speed? He timed 4.53 at his pro day, so there there's that. Overall I just think he's been too consistent (4 year starter) to dismiss completely. On the other hand, he might just be a carbon copy of what we already have on this team.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pgwingman wrote:

Thanks!

I didn't really plan it that way, but I see your point.


Don't get me wrong... I think Bowser and King both have fairly safe floors as NFL players, just not at the listed positions. (Does that make sense?). Worst case scenario: Bowser should be a solid ILB, but he won't be worth the pick if that's where he ends up long-term. As an athlete he's basically Nate Palmer (However, there's no doubt Bowser is a much better prospect). King also has a fairly safe floor as a safety in the NFL, but the last thing this team needs is to spend a 2nd round DP on a sub 215 lbs safety.

pgwingman wrote:
Regarding the two G/C prospects, what stats would you be looking at? I thought the 3 cone times was the closest representation of the agility required play the position.


Yes, in terms of short area agility the 3C would serve as the best indicator, but there are a few other numbers that should be considered.

DraftHobbyist asked me how I judge the #s of OL awhile back so I'll repost my response here.

Cadmus wrote:

My only requirement for OL is a 7.70 3C, but that's not necessarily a strict cutoff point. I've said before that I think the 3C is the only drill the Packers truly care about (unless significant problems are present elsewhere). The Packers have selected just 1 Player in the last 11 Draft Classes that hasn't reached the 7.7s or lower (even Schlauderschitt was in the 7.7s). Jamon Meredith was the only player above that threshold and I think you could easily write that selection off as a perceived value pick. Meredith was generally rated as an early-mid 2nd and then fell to the end of the 5th (it would be like Moton falling to the end of the 5th). The <7.7 3C also represents one of the more exclusive OL clubs in the NFL draft every single year and its clear the Packers value OL with agility, specifically the COD skills.

So for the 3C: (Basic outline, not necessarily some concrete rubric)

<7.70- These players will always meet my requirements unless there's a significant performance red flag.

7.71-7.74- All of these players will typically be treated similar to the a sub 7.7 OL unless the other numbers are poor or there's a performance issue.

7.75-7.79- These players must posses satisfactory numbers in the shuttle and 10 yard split AND the performance on the field must alleviate any potential concerns.

>7.79- I rarely consider OL for the Packers once they exceed that threshold. If a player is above a 7.8 they are typically either: 1) A poor athlete overall OR 2) [If they perform well in other drills] They are a linear athlete that would be too stiff to be drafted by the Packers.


I also use the shuttle and 10 yard split as secondary guidelines.

For the Shuttle:

<4.85- Players are unlikely to be excluded from the list if they measure well in the 3C and have a satisfactory 10 yard split.

4.85-4.89- The point where I start to worry and will pull players if I have concerns about on-field performance and/or the other numbers don't compensate for the time. Most of the players that fall in this range have already been excluded by the 3C, but there are players that end up here with a 7.7 3C and I evaluate them individually.

>4.89- DOA

For 10 yard split:

<1.85- Players are unlikely to be excluded from the list if they measure well in the 3C and have a satisfactory shuttle value.

1.85-1.89- The point where I start to worry and will pull players if I have concerns about on-field performance and/or the other numbers don't compensate for the time. Most of the players that fall in this range have already been excluded by the 3C, but there are players that end up here with a 7.7 3C and I will evaluate them individually.

>1.89- DOA


The red flag with Roullier from the beginning (pre-Combine) was that he struggled with blocks on the second level. He appeared to lack the necessary speed to get to where he needs to be and generally underwhelmed in open space. That's a problem when you use your guards the way the Packers do. Do you recall how people complained about how poor Taylor was on the second level? He has improved, but still remains below average in open space because he lacks the requisite burst/acceleration to consistently engage blocks on that level. Roullier and Taylor are actually similar in that I would argue both perform best in a phone booth.

The other similarity for both Taylor and Roullier is that they both have underwhelming 10 yard splits.

Taylor- 6030/324 --> 40/10 (5.35/1.88)
Roullier- 6036/312 --> 40/10 (5.42/1.93)

Obviously, Taylor was a UDFA the Packers brought in and they typically relax their athletic requirements for college free agents. However, all of the OL that Green Bay has drafted in the last 11 years have achieved 10 yard splits of 1.85 or less at some point in the pre-draft process (either Combine or PD).

On Corey Levin: I don't have any problems him as an athlete, I'm just concerned by the fact that he wasn't as dominant in the FCS as I would have liked.
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pgwingman


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
pgwingman wrote:

Thanks!

I didn't really plan it that way, but I see your point.


Don't get me wrong... I think Bowser and King both have fairly safe floors as NFL players, just not at the listed positions. (Does that make sense?). Worst case scenario Bowser could be a solid ILB, but he won't be worth the pick if that's where he ends up long-term. As an athlete he's basically Nate Palmer (However, there's no doubt Bowser is a much better prospect). King also has a fairly safe floor as a safety in the NFL, but the last thing this team needs is to spend a 2nd round DP on a sub 215 lbs safety.

pgwingman wrote:
Regarding the two G/C prospects, what stats would you be looking at? I thought the 3 cone times was the closest representation of the agility required play the position.


Yes, in terms of short area agility the 3C would serve as the best indicator, but there are a few other numbers that should be considered.

DraftHobbyist asked me how I judge the #s of OL awhile back so I'll repost my response here.

Cadmus wrote:

My only requirement for OL is a 7.70 3C, but that's not necessarily a strict cutoff point. I've said before that I think the 3C is the only drill the Packers truly care about (unless significant problems are present elsewhere). The Packers have selected just 1 Player in the last 11 Draft Classes that hasn't reached the 7.7s or lower (even Schlauderschitt was in the 7.7s). Jamon Meredith was the only player above that threshold and I think you could easily write that selection off as a perceived value pick. Meredith was generally rated as an early-mid 2nd and then fell to the end of the 5th (it would be like Moton falling to the end of the 5th). The <7.7 3C also represents one of the more exclusive OL clubs in the NFL draft every single year and its clear the Packers value OL with agility, specifically the COD skills.

So for the 3C: (Basic outline, not necessarily some concrete rubric)

<7.70- These players will always meet my requirements unless there's a significant performance red flag.

7.71-7.74- All of these players will typically be treated similar to the a sub 7.7 OL unless the other numbers are poor or there's a performance issue.

7.75-7.79- These players must posses satisfactory numbers in the shuttle and 10 yard split AND the performance on the field must alleviate any potential concerns.

>7.79- I rarely consider OL for the Packers once they exceed that threshold. If a player is above a 7.8 they are typically either: 1) A poor athlete overall OR 2) [If they perform well in other drills] They are a linear athlete that would be too stiff to be drafted by the Packers.


I also use the shuttle and 10 yard split as secondary guidelines.

For the Shuttle:

<4.85- Players are unlikely to be excluded from the list if they measure well in the 3C and have a satisfactory 10 yard split.

4.85-4.89- The point where I start to worry and will pull players if I have concerns about on-field performance and/or the other numbers don't compensate for the time. Most of the players that fall in this range have already been excluded by the 3C, but there are players that end up here with a 7.7 3C and I evaluate them individually.

>4.89- DOA

For 10 yard split:

<1.85- Players are unlikely to be excluded from the list if they measure well in the 3C and have a satisfactory shuttle value.

1.85-1.89- The point where I start to worry and will pull players if I have concerns about on-field performance and/or the other numbers don't compensate for the time. Most of the players that fall in this range have already been excluded by the 3C, but there are players that end up here with a 7.7 3C and I will evaluate them individually.

>1.89- DOA


The red flag with Roullier from the beginning (pre-Combine) was that he struggled with blocks on the second level. He appeared to lack the necessary speed to get to where he needs to be and generally underwhelmed in open space. That's a problem when you use your guards the way the Packers do. Do you recall how people complained about how poor Taylor was on the second level? He has improved, but still remains below average in open space because he lacks the requisite burst/acceleration to consistently engage blocks on that level. Roullier and Taylor are actually similar in that I would argue both perform best in a phone booth.

The other similarity for both Taylor and Roullier is that they both have underwhelming 10 yard splits.

Taylor- 6030/324 --> 40/10 (5.35/1.88)
Roullier- 6036/312 --> 40/10 (5.42/1.93)

Obviously, Taylor was a UDFA the Packers brought in and they typically relax their athletic requirements for college free agents. However, all of the OL that Green Bay has drafted in the last 11 years have achieved 10 yard splits of 1.85 or less at some point in the pre-draft process (either Combine or PD).

On Corey Levin: I don't have any problems him as an athlete, I'm just concerned by the fact that he wasn't as dominant in the FCS as I would have liked.


Wow, thank you. This is easily the smartest thing I've read this entire draft season. I'll get back to the drawing board on OL prospects.
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