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DraftHobbyist


Joined: 17 Aug 2014
Posts: 349
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:36 pm    Post subject: DraftHobbyist's 2017 Prospect Positional Ranking Unveil Reply with quote

Hey guys! I've been working hard on my positional rankings, and while rankings are never quite done, they are at a point where I feel comfortable unveiling them to others. If a player is not listed, it simply means that I haven't ranked them (not to be confused with a low ranking, although I should have most of the better players ranked). I take some pride in not simply following what others are saying but watching each player, looking at their Combine/Pro Day numbers, etc. I did not consider injuries or character concerns because everybody weights that stuff differently, and I wanted this to be on-the-field rankings adjusted for athleticism.
Link to rankings: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l8uYpHCrfHjDRVJDIM-zf8JuG8RKDO5mvF_O8dbVxVI/edit?usp=sharing
A note at each position:

QB: I tend to value ball placement over a big arm. I believe that arm strength can be improved just as accuracy can, and that having less of the mental game needing help will lead to a higher probability of becoming a franchise QB. That's why you see me so high on guys like Brad Kaaya (although his poise worries me) and Nathan Peterman (who would be above Kelly post-intangibles). I really dislike QB's that have to completely rework their throwing motion and footwork, and that's why you see me so low on Patrick Mahomes (I wouldn't consider him until late Day 3).

RB: Samaje Perine might jump out at people as my #6 RB. My argument for him is that he is a devastating blocker to the point where he can be a RB/FB/h-Back hybrid, yet his 40 time is only about a tenth slower than guys who are 20 lbs lighter than him. Add on his 30 bench reps, and you have a productive, athletic, well-rounded, truly versatile, unique RB. Perine tested about on par with former 2nd Rounder Eddie Lacy, but Perine is far stronger, has the versatility I mentioned, and has far fewer concerns going into the NFL Draft. A quick mention for Alvin Kamara, he's lower than many might expect, and that is due to his lack of production as well as average Combine. That's a combo I'm not a fan of.

FB: I really like Sam Rogers. He can do it all. I see him probably as a 5th Rounder if I had to guess, but I haven't spent much time putting players into rounds. I'm not a fan of Stevenson at all, and he should go undrafted.

WR: I had to put John Ross #1. His speed is special. He's fast in every gear, he doesn't lose speed when he turns for the ball, he can play through contact, and he can run routes. I've seen him absolutely destroy an attempted jam, and if the CB whiffs a jam against him it's a TD. A #1 WR should be commanding double teams, and that's what I see John Ross doing at the next level. On Chris Godwin, I'm a huge fan. I think he's a dark horse to sneak into the back end of the 1st Round. He plays physically, but tested better than I expected. Chad Hansen and Noah Brown are two guys I also liked on film and also expected to test worse than they did. I thought these guys would be more like Cooper Kupp, and you have to love Noah Brown's size. Hansen runs very good routes and Noah Brown is dangerous as a blocker.

TE: Howard was my #1 TE last year, but then he went back to school. I think Butt has been the forgotten man and it's hard to place him with that injury because of a lack of times, but David Njoku really didn't test as well as people thought he would. I think Njoku is a better blocker than he gets credit for, but I like Butt's blocking more. They can both catch as well. These guys are very close for me. I put Kittle as my #5 TE. It's popular to love him, but I just don't see people moving him up their Draft boards very much. I'm seeing 5th Round projections. Why? This guy is a devastating blocker, far better than OJ Howard, and he is quite athletic as well. Iowa didn't use him in the passing game much, but he was productive enough (over 300 yards receiving and 4 TD's his last year) to show that he can catch. Oh, and did I mention he's around 6'4" 250 lbs? I didn't have numbers or much to watch for Saubert, so don't put too much into where he is.

OT: I really like Roderick Johnson. He is raw, but the sky is the limit, and in a class missing top end OT's, I think teams will overlook his rawness to some extent.

OG: Damien Mama was hard to place. He's not the most athletic, but he definitely gets the job done. The question for me is will it translate, and I think most of it will. I think his lack of athleticism leads to some of his inconsistency, though.

C: Most people have Pat Elflein as the #1 C, but I have Ethan Pocic as clearly my top guy. He's tall, but he has such great bend I think he can play C. But with his measurables, maybe a team will want to try him at OT or OG. I think he can potentially play any position on the OL and in any scheme, although I like him in the ZBS.

DL: The sky is the limit for Larry Ogunjobi, but being from Charlotte, he will have a large leap. I had a tough time placing him because his play isn't refined enough but he does make good plays and his athleticism is quite good. Being the #6 DL is probably closer to his high-end range.

EDGE: TJ Watt is much better than he got credit for. I'm a Wisconsin fan, but his testing surprised me as well. But when you go back and look, the athleticism shows up. Watt doesn't cheat (as I call it) where he is constantly playing the run first before he pins his ears back. That's why rollouts are a terrible idea against him and running at him doesn't work very well most of the time. I'm always amazed at how low some of these guys are considered in the B1G when they are going against the best OL's in the country every week. And yes, Vince Biegel does get off to a better jump sometimes, but Watt is bigger and Biegel is pretty good in his own right. Watt probably passes Tim Williams after character, and might go Top 15. I feel like I should mention Youngstown St's Derek Rivers as well. I really like him. He has very good bend which shows up in a solid 3-cone as well good strength, which shows up with a bench press of 30. It's quite amazing how good of a pass-rushing duo Youngstown St had between him and Avery Moss (who I didn't rank yet).

LB: I'll be boring and mention Reuben Foster. Man, he is dominant. A mention for Ben Gedeon. He's the type of ILB that can do a lot of good stuffing the run at the next level. He's deceptively athletic with 27 bench press (which would look so much better at 30, yet is quite a lot), sub-7.0 3-cone (but only a 4.75 40), his 4.13 short shuttle was pretty very good. This athletic profile isn't going to jump out at people, but it's quite good.

CB: I wish Lattimore would've finished his testing, but he did enough and performed well enough that I have to keep him #1. Conley is a very strong #2, though, and he could be set to go much higher than people think, especially with the fall of Sidney Jones. I actually ended up putting Conley above Jones without even considering the injury, but all 3 of these guys are very close. Then you have the big drop off, and I put in Kevin King as an upside guy, but his tape isn't bad, either. Sure, he's not great against the run, but he is willing, and he is quite good against the pass. He was main cog in the machine that is the Washington Defense, and lets not pretend like highly rated CB's such as Teez Tabor aren't weak against the run as well. He's a tall CB with athleticism, though, and the NFL will love that. I like Howard Wilson a lot, and although his 4.57 40 did disappoint me, his 6.68 3-cone and 3.94 short shuttle saved him for me. He has great film, too.

S: I have Hooker as my #1 S, but I really don't love him as much as you might assume. He freelances a lot, and it's up to the CB's to save him. In fact, the Clemson game that everybody loves because of the rangy INT in the endzone, I actually think when you go and look Hooker got exposed all game and is really a main reason Ohio St lost. But when you look at the athleticism shown on tape, his future potential, and his playmaking ability, it's hard to pass on him. His injuries do worry me, and that could be enough to drop him behind Adams, but not further than that.

K/P: Zane Gonzalez seems to be clearly the best Kicker from what I've seen. He was accurate his final season (92%) and nailed a bunch of long kicks. I could see him going as high as the 4th Round, although the 5th Round is probably more likely. At Punter, I watched Austin Rehkow and Kenny Allen, which was a tough decision. Rehkow can really boom them and kick them highly, and he was Idaho's Kicker as well. I've heard the experts say that he's not an NFL Kicker, but I do love how quickly the ball gets up high. He could definitely back the position up. He's very raw as a Punter because he'll have a bunch of punts that bounce back towards him even though they land on the 30, but then he will absolutely boom or pin some down inside the 5. His high-end potential gives him the edge for me, but his rawness makes him probably closer to a 7th Rounder. Both Punters are draftable IMO, although I've never pretended to be a kicking/punting expert.

Let me know what you think!
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Jlash


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like you put a lot into this man, good job. You can Calhoun should get along nicely.
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Jlash


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Soloman Thomas over Garrett should bring some interesting discussion too. Care to give any insight on that one?
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Cypher


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jlash wrote:
Soloman Thomas over Garrett should bring some interesting discussion too. Care to give any insight on that one?


I'm not an intense eval guy or anything, but I currently have the same. Reminds of the Mack/Clowney class. Thomas is Mack all over again, and I had him rated well above Clowney.
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DraftHobbyist


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jlash wrote:
Soloman Thomas over Garrett should bring some interesting discussion too. Care to give any insight on that one?

Thomas and Garrett are very similar athletically and in terms of production. Having said that, Garrett got his production in a much more worrying way. 8/33 season tackles, 4.5/15 season TFL's, and 4.5/8.5 of his season sacks came for Garrett against UTSA (played 11 games). Take those away and you have 25 tackles, 10.5 TFL's, and 4 sacks in 10 games on the season. People like to blame his ankle injury, but I don't buy that. Was it Garrett's September ankle injury that was still limiting him when Garrett had only 2 tackles against LSU at the end of November and only 1 tackle against Kansas St at the end of December? And if this ankle injury is so limiting then why could we see his athleticism on tape?
When I look at Solomon's production, there are some games where he seems to have taken over. Against Notre Dame, he had 12 tackles (10 solo) in a game Stanford won by 7. Solomon actually showed up in the bowl game with 7 tackles in a game Stanford won by 2. He had a 42-yard fumble recovery return for a TD against UCLA in a game Stanford won by 9. There are only 6 games Thomas didn't have a sack in (and one of those was Rice) compared to Garrett's 7, even though Garrett played 2 fewer games. Only 3 games did Thomas not have a TFL in compared to Garrett's 4 games. So I like how Solomon has more consistency in his production, lowering the risk of bust.
Another issue for now is that Garrett didn't run a short shuttle while Solomon put up pretty solid times (6.95 3-cone and 4.28 short shuttle). If Garrett performs these at his Pro Day and does them really well then I will probably have Garrett leap Thomas, but right now, those are question marks adding risk.
Then there's the film. Garrett is obviously athletic, but there's also something very awkward about him. It tells me that he is more of an athlete than a true football player. Also, Garrett doesn't get double teamed as much as you would think. He does this different pass rushing moves, too, that I'm not sure will work at the next level. All of this makes me worry if there will be a transition issue for Garrett. Garrett's upside is a little higher, but his risk is also quite a bit higher, so I'll take the guy that is still very good but maybe has a lower ceiling than the guy who is more likely to completely bust but might turn out to be a little bit better if everything falls into place.
We're really nitpicking, though, because these two guys are very close as prospects.
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Jlash


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DraftHobbyist wrote:
Thomas and Garrett are very similar athletically and in terms of production. Having said that, Garrett got his production in a much more worrying way. 8/33 season tackles, 4.5/15 season TFL's, and 4.5/8.5 of his season sacks came for Garrett against UTSA (played 11 games). Take those away and you have 25 tackles, 10.5 TFL's, and 4 sacks in 10 games on the season. People like to blame his ankle injury, but I don't buy that. Was it Garrett's September ankle injury that was still limiting him when Garrett had only 2 tackles against LSU at the end of November and only 1 tackle against Kansas St at the end of December? And if this ankle injury is so limiting then why could we see his athleticism on tape?
When I look at Solomon's production, there are some games where he seems to have taken over. Against Notre Dame, he had 12 tackles (10 solo) in a game Stanford won by 7. Solomon actually showed up in the bowl game with 7 tackles in a game Stanford won by 2. He had a 42-yard fumble recovery return for a TD against UCLA in a game Stanford won by 9. There are only 6 games Thomas didn't have a sack in (and one of those was Rice) compared to Garrett's 7, even though Garrett played 2 fewer games. Only 3 games did Thomas not have a TFL in compared to Garrett's 4 games. So I like how Solomon has more consistency in his production, lowering the risk of bust.
Another issue for now is that Garrett didn't run a short shuttle while Solomon put up pretty solid times (6.95 3-cone and 4.28 short shuttle). If Garrett performs these at his Pro Day and does them really well then I will probably have Garrett leap Thomas, but right now, those are question marks adding risk.
Then there's the film. Garrett is obviously athletic, but there's also something very awkward about him. It tells me that he is more of an athlete than a true football player. Also, Garrett doesn't get double teamed as much as you would think. He does this different pass rushing moves, too, that I'm not sure will work at the next level. All of this makes me worry if there will be a transition issue for Garrett. Garrett's upside is a little higher, but his risk is also quite a bit higher, so I'll take the guy that is still very good but maybe has a lower ceiling than the guy who is more likely to completely bust but might turn out to be a little bit better if everything falls into place.
We're really nitpicking, though, because these two guys are very close as prospects.


I couldn't help but laugh when reading this, not because I disagree or anything, but because I kept flashing back to watching him run his 40 and someone on this forum saying something like "He runs like he's got a tire around his waist".

I think your points are interesting. I think Garrett could be one of those cases where he's a better pro than a college player. Guys like Chandler Jones and Danielle Hunter had very limited college production, but you could see they had very translatable skills. Now, neither of them were the #1 pick or anything, but you get my point right?
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jlash wrote:
I think Garrett could be one of those cases where he's a better pro than a college player. Guys like Chandler Jones and Danielle Hunter had very limited college production, but you could see they had very translatable skills. Now, neither of them were the #1 pick or anything, but you get my point right?

I think you're selling him short. Myles Garrett had 30+ college sacks and nothing to prove. We all know he took his foot off the gas after his ankle injury this year. If you add up everything he did as a freshman, sophomore, five games pre-injury this past season, and that one game where he just humiliated an underwhelming opponent in Texas San Antonio, he has more than proven he was an amazing college player. He just ended on a low note. Garrett is the bluest of the blue-chip prospects. Those guys know what's at stake and can afford to look out for themselves more than the average guy. Everyone in the league knows Garrett purposefully slowed down. But nobody will call him out on it and make a thing of it because he was still out there giving it a go.
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DraftHobbyist


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
Jlash wrote:
I think Garrett could be one of those cases where he's a better pro than a college player. Guys like Chandler Jones and Danielle Hunter had very limited college production, but you could see they had very translatable skills. Now, neither of them were the #1 pick or anything, but you get my point right?

I think you're selling him short. Myles Garrett had 30+ college sacks and nothing to prove. We all know he took his foot off the gas after his ankle injury this year. If you add up everything he did as a freshman, sophomore, five games pre-injury this past season, and that one game where he just humiliated an underwhelming opponent in Texas San Antonio, he has more than proven he was an amazing college player. He just ended on a low note. Garrett is the bluest of the blue-chip prospects. Those guys know what's at stake and can afford to look out for themselves more than the average guy. Everyone in the league knows Garrett purposefully slowed down. But nobody will call him out on it and make a thing of it because he was still out there giving it a go.

You're assuming quite a lot here. But yeah, Garrett is a great prospect, nobody is denying that. The question is basically, is he the #1 or the #2 pass-rusher? Is the #1 Overall pick or should he go #2-#3? That difference isn't very large, and the other guys we're talking about are very good blue-chippers in their own right. So overall, yes, Garrett is a very good prospect but you are assuming lots of information about why his season trailed off. Everybody seems to have their own excuse. You are saying he took it easy, others say he was hindered by his ankle injury, etc. All of these excuses are made up on no evidence, though.
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DraftHobbyist wrote:
You are assuming lots of information about why his season trailed off. Everybody seems to have their own excuse. You are saying he took it easy, others say he was hindered by his ankle injury, etc.

It's either the ankle or taking it easy. I think it's a combination of both. Regardless, it doesn't matter much to me. I just take issue when people say Garrett wasn't productive enough. He had nothing left to prove in college.
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48 1/2ers


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like you put quite a bit of time into this so great job! I love seeing list like these even if theres a lot I disagree with, we all are just evaluating potential which is unknown so theres no right or wrong rankings. I have some questions:
Why is Chad Kelly so high for you? and Dobbs, Mahomes, Webb so low?

What do you see in Noah Brown?

I like Carlos Watkins there he's highly underrated.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
It's either the ankle or taking it easy. I think it's a combination of both. Regardless, it doesn't matter much to me. I just take issue when people say Garrett wasn't productive enough. He had nothing left to prove in college.


Absolutely this. This is just another situation of a player being nitpicked to hell.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 5:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

48 1/2ers wrote:
Looks like you put quite a bit of time into this so great job! I love seeing list like these even if theres a lot I disagree with, we all are just evaluating potential which is unknown so theres no right or wrong rankings. I have some questions:

Thanks! I love questions. Smile

Quote:
Why is Chad Kelly so high for you? and Dobbs, Mahomes, Webb so low?

I don't think I really have Kelly that high. This doesn't consider any of the character or injury issues, and with those he'd drop at least a few spots, and his knee injury might as well. On the field, Kelly has some attributes to like such as poise and competitiveness. I also noted in my notes that he runs with his eyes downfield continuing to look to pass, which I always like to see. He also places balls over defenders with a nice touch really well. I feel that gets overlooked sometimes because he has the accurate tag of being a gunslinger. When just judging the on-field performance, Kelly is a pretty good QB.
About Webb, the funny thing is I don't actually hate him. There's lots of upside and it may very well be better to take him over some of these other guys if you're looking for the highest ceiling and nothing else. He also has a compact throwing motion, which is pretty rare at the college level for a guy of his size. But in the end, he has a lot of question marks, and I don't think he'll ever reach his potential. (I feel too many people overlook the probability of a guy actually reaching potential, which I see as a problem for both Webb and Mahomes.) Webb needs to work on his footwork, and he often turns into a statue in the pocket. He doesn't have a feel for the pressure, which is worrying. I put that he plays in "slow motion" in my notes, and he obviously has the system concerns that have likely held him back on the mental side of the game. FWIW, if there is a QB I have too low I'd say it's Webb.
On Dobbs, he runs too often and when he does he's tucking the ball. He's not looking to pass at all. He fails to recognize open WR's at times, he makes terrible decisions, and he's quite inaccurate. I don't see his game translating to the next level.
Quote:
What do you see in Noah Brown?

Noah Brown is 6'2" and weighed in as the 2nd heaviest WR at the Combine (excluding the 240+ lb guys that are basically TE bodies). He still ran a reasonable 4.57 40, and while he's no burner, he uses his size to get some great blocks opening some huge runs for the RB. I'd like to see more production than his 32 catches for 402 receiving yards, but he did add 7 TD's to that, and I think a lot of his lack of production can be explained between the system and him only being a rSo. At Ohio St, they don't pass a whole lot and when they do they really spread it around. Their RB steals a lot of balls and their TE catches quite a few passes. Just watch this short 2:10 clip to see what Noah Brown can be: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzZwT3geiZA
Notice how on all of the catches, he is dealing with a lot of contact, and it doesn't phase him at all. That's special, and shows you that he will transition to the NFL very well in terms of fighting through presses, contact in the air, etc. And while in college you only need 1 foot in, Brown gets 2 feet down on all of these catches. The third play shows that Brown is a football player, because only a football player makes that catch. The fourth catch shows how a guy can get open without having the best top-end speed. Brown is a possession WR that doesn't need to have separation to be open.
Also, take a look at this 4:01 clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4I59uQG3390 On the first play, he takes a 250 lb LB completely out of the play. That's what I mean by special blocking. Second play, he holds his CB so the CB can't crash down to make the play, and then he crashes down and picks up a block. 3rd play, he makes a nice catch. 4th play, he ends up on the ground which is rare, but then you realize it's because of an obvious penalty. 5th play, the QB is in big trouble and he comes down to erase a DL (although the DL didn't see him coming). 6th play, another catch. 7th play, he gets behind his guy, but his lack of top-end speed shows up here. Maybe a better QB gets that out quicker for a big gain, though, but this is why Brown is a #2 and not a #1. Lets keep in mind that this Michigan CB is set to be Drafted, though (Channing Stribling 6th Round projection by CBSsports). 8th play, incomplete, but it's amazing the separation he creates when there is nothing there. 9th play, DB absolutely erased. 10th play, he misjudged his jump or that's a TD (or if Barrett could throw a ball even close to on-target). 11th play, the ball isn't to him and he doesn't have a lot of separation, but I think there's room there to get him the ball over that tough pass to Samuel. 12th play, there is some sort of mistake in Michigan's coverage, because there's one CB for two receivers, and Brown gets the ball. 13th play, Michigan had their best CB in Lewis on Brown, but it didn't matter, he got erased from the play all the same. This is very elite blocking that is better than a lot of TE's give. In fact, CFBStats has him listed at 240 lbs his Freshman year so I wonder if he played some TE in high school or something. I know WR's have to catch, but Brown's blocking cannot be overlooked, and I think he flashed against Oklahoma that he can come up with big catches anyways.
I like Carlos Watkins there he's highly underrated.[/quote]
There's a lot to like. He has solid arm length and big hands. I took a chance on him because some of his agility drills weren't the best. A lot of people don't like Clemson DL's because many haven't done will in the NFL. There's a lot to like there, though.
CWood21 wrote:
Absolutely this. This is just another situation of a player being nitpicked to hell.

Sure, I'm nitpicking, but we're talking about the #1 Overall pick. We're saying that he's better than every other prospect this year, so in order to say that about not only him but to say that about every other prospect (being worse that is), we need to nitpick. Without nitpicking Solomon Thomas and Myles Garrett are basically equals.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love to hear your thoughts on Connor McDermott and Adam Bisnowaty. With how bad this tackle class is, I am looking for some hope. Bisnowaty to me has horrible technique, but I am trying to decide if a lot of that is coaching. McDermott I worry about his leverage
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for sharing this, appreciate the effort you put into this.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DraftHobbyist wrote:
Sure, I'm nitpicking, but we're talking about the #1 Overall pick. We're saying that he's better than every other prospect this year, so in order to say that about not only him but to say that about every other prospect (being worse that is), we need to nitpick. Without nitpicking Solomon Thomas and Myles Garrett are basically equals.


There's a very big difference between being critical of an evaluation and complaining to complain. IF Myles Garrett really only had one year of production, your complaint would be very logical. But when his freshman and sophomore seasons were just as productive, probably even moreso, as his junior year than the whole production concerns need to be thrown out. He's not a flash in the pan. I mean, I don't like using stats as the end-all, be-all in an argument but Garrett's sophomore numbers best or are similar to Thomas' career numbers. The kid literally checks off every box you have, and he's the clear #1 overall prospect.
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