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Cadmus Mock v2.0 (AKA: An Excuse to Talk About Tim Patrick)
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 3:51 pm    Post subject: Cadmus Mock v2.0 (AKA: An Excuse to Talk About Tim Patrick) Reply with quote

Alright everyone, I've been sick all weekend so I had extra time to throw together another mock draft. Let me know what you think.

Current Roster

QB- Rodgers, Hundley, Callahan
FB- Ripkowski, Kerridge
RB- Montgomery, Michael, Jackson
WR- Nelson, Adams, Cobb, Janis, Davis, Allison, Goodley, McCaffrey
TE- Bennett, Kendricks, Rodgers, Sandland
OL- Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, Bulaga, Spriggs, Murphy, Barclay, Patrick, Flores

DL- Daniels, Clark, Guion, Jean-Francois, Lowry, Ringo, Price
OLB- Perry, Matthews, Fackrell, Elliott, Gilbert
ILB- Ryan, Martinez, Thomas, Tripp, D. Matthews
CB- House, Randall, Rollins, Gunter, Hawkins, Dorleant, Waters, Goodson
S- Burnett, Clinton-Dix, Brice, Evans, Whitehead

K- Crosby
P- Schum
LS- Pepper

Free Agency

Packers sign Brandon Fusco @ 1 Year 1.025 Million (Don Barclay's Contract)



Why is this a Thompson move? We need OL depth and the 2017 NFL Draft seems like a bad bet to find multiple quality "Packers" OL prospects that could be drafted where the value would make sense. I foresee a lot of reaches at the OL position by other teams to fill a need and we all know that's not Thompson's modus operandi.

Based on Bell's visit, it seems clear that the Packers remain interested in improving their depth along the OL. In Free Agency, there are only 2 realistic OL targets that remain for the Packers that are also under the age of 30 (I feel they might avoid older FAs after the Saturday incident). The second player may chose early retirement due to concussion issues, which leaves Fusco as the most logical target. Fusco has the requisite size (6'4", 315) and athleticism (7.29 3C) that the Packers look for at the Guard position. I watched a few games from the 2016 NFL Season and I thought he was pretty solid from what I saw. Fusco isn't a stud by any means, but I do think the state of disarray from the Vikings OL unit dragged his performance down a bit. Honestly, I'm not sure that I've seen another NFL OL in recent memory that played less like an actual unit and more like 5 individual players that just happened to line up in the same direction. Moving on... I was rather impressed by Fusco vs. Philly where he held his own and often matched up against Fletcher Cox. As stated above, the Packers seem to be looking for experienced OL depth and Fusco would bring 64 games of starting experience (predominantly at RG). Fusco was also a Center at Slippery Rock and would provide Green Bay with an immediate upgrade behind Linsley.


Packers sign Jon Bostic @ 1 Year 1.2 Million



Why is this a Thompson move? Thompson always seems to be looking for young talent that perhaps hasn't been given a proper opportunity to play up to its ability. The 2017 NFL Draft has poor depth (and overall athleticism) at the ILB position and Thompson hasn't been known to spend significant draft capital on ILBs anyway.

The 2017 NFL Draft is top heavy at the ILB position and the overall class simply lacks the type of athleticism we are looking for. Bostic would have easily been one of the most athletic LBs at the 2017 NFL Combine (4.61 40 would be T-2nd among LBs with McMillan). I had Bostic pegged as 3-4 ILB when he entered the 2013 NFL Draft, but he was selected by the 4-3 Bears and started 17 games in his first 2 seasons as a pro. In 2015, the Bears traded Bostic to the Patriots for a 6th Rd pick, but he was buried on the depth chart behind Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, and Jerod Mayo and never had an opportunity to prove himself. Then in 2016, Bostic was traded (again) to the Lions for a conditional 7th Rd pick. Bostic started strong in TC with the Lions, but suffered a broken foot during the 2nd week of training camp that required surgery and forced him to miss the entire season. Signing the former 50th overall selection would provide us with an instant upgrade on STs and another player to compete for snaps at ILB (and push) Martinez, Ryan and Thomas. Ted Thompson has seen two teams recently take chances on former 2nd Rd LBs that were stuck in a 4-3 system early in their careers before they transitioned to a 3-4 and became impact players. He may want to take a cheap shot on his own former 2nd Rd LB to see if he can replicate a similar level of success.

Bostic also provides the type of physical presence that we currently lack at ILB.

Exhibit A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH_398n3NeY


2017 NFL Draft

Round 1 Pick 29- T.J. Watt OLB Wisconsin- Height: 6042 Weight: 252 40 Time- 4.69



Profile/Reasoning: I feel like we've already discussed Watt a significant amount on here and that I shouldn't need to explain the selection.

Highlights: https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY
Game: https://youtu.be/o81cSkU3Y58


Round 2 Pick 61- Ahkello Witherspoon CB Colorado- Height: 6026 Weight: 198 40 Time- 4.45



Profile/Reasoning: I'm very interested to see where Witherspoon will ultimately be selected in the 2017 NFL Draft. I bumped him to the 50s on my Big Board after the NFL Combine, but I thought he would fall largely due to the amount of talent at the CB position. Now that top CBs are dropping all over the place (Tabor, Lewis, Jones, and "Moreau") I think a selection towards the middle of the 2nd Rd might be realistic for him. The primary reason I feel Witherspoon could be available at 61 is that he doesn't have much experience at the position overall and has only 1 year of quality play to show the NFL. As a prospect, Witherspoon possesses tremendous length and excellent feet (especially for his size) that should allow him to develop into a premier press corner.

Highlights: https://youtu.be/v84iZchLGzo
Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-h5j-OeQQw


Round 3 Pick 93- Derek Rivers OLB Youngstown State- Height: 6041 Weight: 248 40 Time- 4.61



Profile/Reasoning: The only player to reappear from my first Mock Draft. There has been talk of an upward trajectory for Rivers in the NFL Draft, but he's an FCS prospect and those players historically tend to fall to End of Day 2/Start of Day 3. Basically, when push comes to shove it seems that NFL teams typically aren't crazy about a significant draft capital investment in an FCS prospect irrespective of production or workout numbers. However, I view Rivers as an excellent prospect, albeit one that will probably need at least a year to contribute as anything more than a situational pass rusher. The body situation is comparable to Fackrell in that he will need to add 8-10 pounds before he will be able to hang as an every down player in the NFL.

Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrHbygjkVA8&t
Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iftYmAmJXK0&t


Round 4 Pick 134- Samaje Perine RB Oklahoma- Height: 5105 Weight: 233 40 Time- 4.60



Profile/Reasoning: Thompson selects a big back to pair with Montgomery. I just have a gut feeling that McCarthy will ask Thompson to prioritize the acquisition of another big RB to pair with Montgomery. McCarthy has seen first hand how effective Lacy could be late in the 4th Quarter when the Packers needed to burn clock. I also recall someone else on here recently suggested that Green Bay might have interest in Perine specifically because they often target players that may have under-performed the season before the declare (compared to the previous year). Perine isn't Lacy, but he's a talented back that runs with power and has a nice initial burst that makes him difficult to tackle for a loss. He also possesses surprisingly soft hands for a bigger RB and should be able to get involved in the screen game early.

Highlights: https://youtu.be/0-hxd55alKE
Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdXsN8I91Uw


Round 5 Pick 172- J.J. Dielman OL Utah- Height: 6046 Weight: 309 40 Time- 5.09e



Profile/Reasoning: One of the few players in this chitty OL class you can watch and definitively say "That looks like a Packers O-Lineman". Dielman's athleticism is readily apparent as he seems to move effortlessly on the field for such a large player. Dielman also possesses the versatility and experience that Green Bay typically looks for in its mid-round OL selections. However, none of that experience came at LT. Dielman was a four-year starter on the offensive line (31 of 32 games) until he suffered a leg injury that prematurely ended his senior season. He has experience at both Right Tackle (3 Years) and Center (1 Year), and I think he has the ability to play 4 out of 5 (LG-->RT) in the NFL. Dielman likely would have been in consideration for a late Day 2 selection had he not missed the second half of his senior season. He also possesses good bloodlines as his cousin Kris Dielman was an excellent NFL guard for the San Diego Chargers. Overall, Dielman could provide depth along the interior of the OL and should have the ability to compete for the RG job in his first TC.

Game (2015-RT): https://youtu.be/zTDbziJXFn4
Game (2016-C): https://youtu.be/E8SRQ-V0pxQ


Round 5 Pick 182- Brian Hill RB Wyoming- Height: 6005 Weight: 219 40 Time- 4.54



Profile/Reasoning: As I told Central a few days ago, I was not a Brian Hill guy initially. On my first watch through of Hill I made some notes that indicated I thought he was a rather average prospect and slapped him with a fringe 6th/7th grade. However, after he performed better than expected at the NFL Combine I decided to take another look. Then he reportedly ran in the 4.4s at his Pro Day and I went back to look at games from earlier seasons because I wanted to see if there was a noticeable difference. Anyway, to make a long story short, I ended up watching many Wyoming games from each of his 3 seasons and I began to feel that he was probably banged up and/or mildly injured for part of the 2016 season. I found a couple different 2016 games where there seemed to be a noticeable difference in his level of explosiveness. If the NFL Combine numbers are an accurate depiction of Hill when he's 100% then I think he has the potential to be a 3 Down Back in the NFL with a little bit of polish. A couple things to note about Hill as a prospect. First, for whatever reason he only had 8 receptions during 2016 after a 20 reception campaign in 2015. I don't know why the number regressed, but from what I've seen he doesn't seem to have any issues catching the ball and he can be dangerous runner in the screen game. Second, Hill is the type of back that will give you his best when he can get downhill. He's a bit like Starks in that he can be special once he gets to the 2nd level, but he won't be the type of player that can evade a bunch of tackles in the backfield. Overall, Hill is a good RB prospect with a well-rounded skillset that would likely be in the conversation as a potential Day 2 selection in a different draft class.

Highlights: https://youtu.be/fm_RWFHPd3s
Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLcZFq2Bjsk


Round 6 Pick 212- Tim Patrick WR Utah- Height: 6042 Weight: 215 40 Time- 4.47



Profile/Reasoning: Alright, the selection that all of you (should) have been waiting for. I'm not entirely sure where to start on Tim Patrick, but I guess I should begin with the fact that I found him while I was taking a look at Adoree' Jackson back in January. After I discovered that he was a senior, I watched another few games of Patrick and was convinced that he must be regarded as (at least) a late-round NFL DP. Alas, after a significant amount of digging it became clear that he wasn't even on the radar. I then went back to review Patrick's college career to see if I could construct a narrative to explain why he hadn't been able to establish himself as a clear NFL DP despite the tremendous physical gifts. What I found just made the story that much more interesting. I found out that Patrick was a JUCO transfer that wasn't heavily recruited out of high school due to academic issues. He attended Grossmont College, where he became a two sport athlete in both football and basketball. After he put the academic issues behind him he transferred to Utah as a walk-on (and late-summer roster addition) just before fall camp began. Utah's Fall Camp in 2014 began on August 4th and by August 18th he was already a starter on the updated depth chart. Patrick played in a handful of games in 2014 before his season ended prematurely when he snapped his leg. The injury forced Patrick to use crutches well into the beginning of 2015 and he wasn't prepared to play at the beginning of the 2015 season. The injury still hadn't healed properly by October and teammates noted that he couldn't run at full speed due to injury. The coaches eventually counseled Patrick to sit out the rest of the 2015 season to allow the injury to heal properly. In 2016, Patrick was finally 100% and received his first real chance to prove himself on the field. For a player that hadn't played in a game where he was healthy since the 2014 season he started the 2016 season with a bang. Patrick had 20 Receptions for 385 Yards and 5 TDs in the first 4 games of the season before he suffered an ankle injury that forced him to miss 3 games. Overall, when Patrick was active he held a 33% market share of Utah's receiving yards (39% before ankle injury). However, perhaps the most impressive aspect of Patrick's 2016 season was that he posted a 16/250/1 line (15.6 avg) against Colorado, Washington, and USC where he faced 5 of the Top 64 Players in the 2017 NFL Draft (King, Jones, Jackson, Awuzie, and Witherspoon). Alright, now that we have discussed his journey through the 2016 season, let's discuss the Pro Day.

Tim Patrick Pro Day

Height: 6042u
Weight: 210u
40 Time: 4.47
Shuttle: 4.17u
3 Cone: 6.65u (Would have been 3rd at NFL Combine among WRs)
Bench: 22 (Would have been best at NFL Combine among WRs and he has some LONG arms)
Vert: 37.5 (Would have been tied for 4th among WRs)
Broad: 10" 8' (Would have been 11th among WRs)

After the performance at his Pro Day I used all of the numbers to search for current NFL Players that matched his athletic profile. Below are the 5 current NFL players that most closely matched the athletic profile of Tim Patrick.



Player A: Tyrell Williams
Player B: Cameron Meredith
Player C: A.J. Green
Player D: Alshon Jeffery
Player E: DeVante Parker

Kind of crazy, isn't it?

In summation, I really like Tim Patrick and I'd be very surprised if he wasn't drafted after the Pro Day he put together.

Note: Tim Patrick is #12 in all of the games below.

Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCQvo127mho
Game 1 (Colorado): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0cdBvJD3QE
Game 2 (USC): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyvlzU-y6rE
Game 3 (Washington): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTMcR9ahtq0
Link to Hudl Page (Grossmont Basketball Highlights): http://www.hudl.com/profile/789850/tim-patrick


Round 7 Pick 247- Nate Hairston CB Temple- Height: 5117 Weight: 196 40 Time- 4.52



Profile/Reasoning: Forgive me, I'm slightly burned out from writing that Tim Patrick profile. Hairston was a former college WR that switched to CB and he's a fun player to watch. He didn't have a ton of reps in press-man at the college level, but the reps that I saw I really liked and I think Joe Whitt can coax the best out of him at the next level.

Note: Nate Hairston is #15.

Game: https://youtu.be/AtrN78cmDyM


Post Draft Roster

QB- Rodgers, Hundley, Callahan
FB- Ripkowski, Kerridge
RB- Montgomery, Perine, Hill, Michael, Jackson
WR- Nelson, Adams, Cobb, Janis, Patrick, Davis, Allison, Goodley, McCaffrey
TE- Bennett, Kendricks, Rodgers, Sandland
OL- Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, Bulaga, Spriggs, Murphy, Dielman, Fusco, Barclay, Patrick, Flores

DL- Daniels, Clark, Guion, Jean-Francois, Lowry, Ringo, Price
OLB- Perry, Matthews, Fackrell, Watt, Rivers, Elliott, Gilbert
ILB- Ryan, Martinez, Thomas, Bostic, Tripp, D. Matthews
CB- House, Randall, Rollins, Witherspoon, Hairston, Gunter, Hawkins, Dorleant, Waters, Goodson
S- Burnett, Clinton-Dix, Brice, Evans, Whitehead

K- Crosby
P- Schum
LS- Pepper


Last edited by Cadmus on Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:39 pm; edited 3 times in total
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HorizontoZenith


Joined: 03 Mar 2016
Posts: 5911
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TJ Watt is the type of player that I'm not at all excited about us drafting, but if we draft him I'll probably become super excited and have ridiculous expectations for.

I think the biggest reason for that, and I can't be the only one, is that there's this impression that there's no possible way he can hit anywhere close to the level JJ did.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HorizontoZenith wrote:
TJ Watt is the type of player that I'm not at all excited about us drafting, but if we draft him I'll probably become super excited and have ridiculous expectations for.

I think the biggest reason for that, and I can't be the only one, is that there's this impression that there's no possible way he can hit anywhere close to the level JJ did.


Yeah, I can understand that, but he's also undoubtedly one of the best 3-4 OLB prospects in the NFL Draft. I thought about Harris in the 1st Rd, but I truly don't think there's a chance he will be there at 29. I can see both Watt and Williams there at 29, although either could go in the mid-20s. I can't see either going much higher than that though.

What did you think of the non-Watt players?
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pgwingman


Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 479
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow. A+ Rating. This Mock had everything:

1) A few sensible free agent signings.
2) Addressing major need at the first round
3) A few names I hadn't heard of before (Witherspoon, Dielman)
4) An unusually long write-up about a late round guy I hadn't heard of (Patrick). I will definitely keep my eye on him.

Take notes, kids. This is how you put together a mock.
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DocHambone


Joined: 12 Sep 2016
Posts: 445
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like a lot of the picks but I have a feeling a lot of those guys are going to be gone by then.

My bet is that the guys you picked for RD1-RD4 are gone where you have them slotted with our pick.
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Gopackgonerd


Joined: 04 May 2013
Posts: 1284
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HorizontoZenith wrote:
TJ Watt is the type of player that I'm not at all excited about us drafting, but if we draft him I'll probably become super excited and have ridiculous expectations for.

I think the biggest reason for that, and I can't be the only one, is that there's this impression that there's no possible way he can hit anywhere close to the level JJ did.


There's a difference between having a good Bloodline and being a good player, and TJ Watt is a good player, just like Clay was/is.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DocHambone wrote:
I like a lot of the picks but I have a feeling a lot of those guys are going to be gone by then.

My bet is that the guys you picked for RD1-RD4 are gone where you have them slotted with our pick.


I think these are all relatively fair projections. Not every player you hear about ascending up draft boards actually does (see: Fackrell or House).

RD1 is a tossup... I think it's fair to say that's how it will be for any mock with a decent 1st RD pick, but like I said in a previous response I can't see a team using a Top 20 pick on Watt. Once you get past 20 there are not many teams left that a Watt selection would make sense for (Dallas desperately needs DBs, so probably just Oakland - runs 4-3- and KC -has Ford and Houston). 29 isn't unrealistic at all. I guess my question is where could you see him being selected before Green Bay @ 29?

RD2- I could go either way on Witherspoon, but I also stated that in the OP. He could go early in the 2nd or he could fall well into the 3rd, neither would shock me. Look at what happened to House in a deep corner class, the exact same thing could happen to Witherspoon (although I don't see any way he falls out of Day 2).

RD3- Couldn't disagree more. I can't see Rivers being drafted before the 3rd.

RD4- Again I have a really hard time seeing Perine being drafted before the 4th in THIS draft class. In other years he would probably be a near lock for RD3. Could he sneak into the end of Day 2? Sure. Do I think he will? No. I don't think that's an unreasonable projection at all.

Please understand that I'm trying to make this as realistic (Thompson-like) as possible, which means that I'm taking the players that would represent the best value at each slot (within reason).

Would you have believed anyone if they told you we would go Clark-Spriggs-Fackrell 1-2-3 last year? I know that I wouldn't have believed them.

Others please feel free to chime in.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote



I'll take anything you got guys. Criticism/Compliments... comments on players... questions about the FAs. Whatever.

That way I can improve on v3.0 the next time I get sick. Laughing
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RCobb18


Joined: 04 Dec 2012
Posts: 787
Location: Washington
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love this draft, solid work. I haven't watched Witherspoon yet so I will have to check him out. If he is anything like his teammate Awuzie I would be happy.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So based on my research the last small school EDGE (4/3 DE or 3/4 OLB) drafted before the end of the 3rd Round was Bryan Smith in 2008 (#80 Overall).

Kroy Biermann
William Hayes
Lawrence Sidbury
Austen Lane
Robert Mathis
Jared Allen
Larry Hart
Arthur Moats
Eugene Sims
Mike Catapano
Larry Webster
Davis Tull
Kyle Emanuel
Ronald Blair
Matt Judon
Tyrone Holmes

All of those players were drafted in the 4th round or later.

I would say that I feel very comfortable with where I slotted both Rivers and Watt.

Now, I'm looking for honesty...

Does anyone have a huge problem with where I slotted Witherspoon or Perine?
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCobb18 wrote:
I love this draft, solid work. I haven't watched Witherspoon yet so I will have to check him out. If he is anything like his teammate Awuzie I would be happy.


Witherspoon and Awuzie are two completely different players as I'm sure you will see when you check him out.

Thanks for the kind words.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pgwingman wrote:
Wow. A+ Rating. This Mock had everything:

1) A few sensible free agent signings.
2) Addressing major need at the first round
3) A few names I hadn't heard of before (Witherspoon, Dielman)
4) An unusually long write-up about a late round guy I hadn't heard of (Patrick). I will definitely keep my eye on him.

Take notes, kids. This is how you put together a mock.


It ended up being longer than I initially expected. He's a fun player to watch.

If only his QB could consistently deliver the ball to him. He was held back quite a bit by the QB play at Utah.
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NormSizedMidget


Joined: 28 Mar 2011
Posts: 17912
PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just realized I saw Rivers play live lol
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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
Posts: 4473
Location: Quahog, RI
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Switch Witherspoon and Perrine around and that's more realistic. Perrine has a crappy 40 time but was very productive behind a questionable OL in a pass-happy offense.

Not a fan of Fusco but if he's coming in strictly as a back-up he may be an upgrade over Barclay? LOVE the Bostic signing and am kind of wondering how he's still on the market. I assume an injury is to blame.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2351
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
Switch Witherspoon and Perrine around and that's more realistic. Perrine has a crappy 40 time but was very productive behind a questionable OL in a pass-happy offense.

Not a fan of Fusco but if he's coming in strictly as a back-up he may be an upgrade over Barclay? LOVE the Bostic signing and am kind of wondering how he's still on the market. I assume an injury is to blame.


Yeah,

Fusco should provide an immediate upgrade over Barclay at Center (behind Linsley). Let him compete at RG with everyone else and see what happens.

Just found this on Brandon Fusco's player profile:

Quote:
High school teammates with Packers G/T Don Barclay at Seneca Valley High and remains close friends


Unbelievable Laughing
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