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Expectations: Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
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blankman0021


Joined: 02 May 2007
Posts: 2720
Location: MKE
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stevein2012 wrote:
gizmo2012 wrote:
The Packers have 4 key needs going into the draft from my point of view:

CB
Edge
RB
Guard

Now you can argue in what order those priorities are, but if those positions are not your first 4 picks then maybe it is time for a shake-up.


That's not a good way to look at the draft at all. If you go edge, RB in the first 2 picks and in RD3 there isn't a draftable CB or OL you aren't taking one


I'd bet quite a bit that those will not be locked as the top 4 rounds' positions. I'd also be willing to bet that CB is a lock for the top 3 rounds, and OL and RB gets drafted as opposed to not picked.
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Stevein2012


Joined: 12 Jul 2013
Posts: 1648
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:


About 1/5 of Adams targets were in tight coverage, which means Rodgers isn't afraid to target WRs he trusts.


Not sure where you are calculating but 23 of his 146 targets were in tight coverage. 15-16%.

As for Adams being the top WR in tight coverage, 23 targets is a pretty small sample size. Most all the top 10 were under 25 total targets.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000773531/article/davante-adams-leads-top10-wrs-in-tight-coverage

Certainly interesting stats to consider, is it the throw or the catch that is the difference in those situations.


I think the main point isn't to just say how awesome Adams is but to show Rodgers isn't just completely unwilling to throw to a covered WR which seems like a pretty common opinion from fans. I think certain WRs Rodgers will throw to all day long if they are covered but some he certainly won't deal with if there is a defender in their area code.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6424
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stevein2012 wrote:
squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:


About 1/5 of Adams targets were in tight coverage, which means Rodgers isn't afraid to target WRs he trusts.


Not sure where you are calculating but 23 of his 146 targets were in tight coverage. 15-16%.

As for Adams being the top WR in tight coverage, 23 targets is a pretty small sample size. Most all the top 10 were under 25 total targets.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000773531/article/davante-adams-leads-top10-wrs-in-tight-coverage

Certainly interesting stats to consider, is it the throw or the catch that is the difference in those situations.


I think the main point isn't to just say how awesome Adams is but to show Rodgers isn't just completely unwilling to throw to a covered WR which seems like a pretty common opinion from fans. I think certain WRs Rodgers will throw to all day long if they are covered but some he certainly won't deal with if there is a defender in their area code.


I get that Rodgers does make throws into "contested" areas by the definitions of the article/piece, but not all contested throws are the same. Rodgers will often put the ball in a spot where either it is an opportunity for the WR to catch it or it is incomplete. Context and seeing the play still mattes.
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Stevein2012


Joined: 12 Jul 2013
Posts: 1648
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Stevein2012 wrote:
squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:


About 1/5 of Adams targets were in tight coverage, which means Rodgers isn't afraid to target WRs he trusts.


Not sure where you are calculating but 23 of his 146 targets were in tight coverage. 15-16%.

As for Adams being the top WR in tight coverage, 23 targets is a pretty small sample size. Most all the top 10 were under 25 total targets.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000773531/article/davante-adams-leads-top10-wrs-in-tight-coverage

Certainly interesting stats to consider, is it the throw or the catch that is the difference in those situations.


I think the main point isn't to just say how awesome Adams is but to show Rodgers isn't just completely unwilling to throw to a covered WR which seems like a pretty common opinion from fans. I think certain WRs Rodgers will throw to all day long if they are covered but some he certainly won't deal with if there is a defender in their area code.


I get that Rodgers does make throws into "contested" areas by the definitions of the article/piece, but not all contested throws are the same. Rodgers will often put the ball in a spot where either it is an opportunity for the WR to catch it or it is incomplete. Context and seeing the play still mattes.


Yeah but the fact that he does make those throws is why you can't just write off his yards of separation stat as "well that's because Rodgers doesn't throw to him if he's covered".
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