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Expectations: Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
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Stevein2012


Joined: 12 Jul 2013
Posts: 1661
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

persiandud wrote:
I'm not giving him a pass. I'm saying he's a better player than Jordy right now.


You are acting like there's some large chasm between him and Jordy and very little difference between Adams and Williams. Jordy was still a very high level player the back end of last season and Dez hasn't really been an elite guy for a couple seasons now. There's a bigger difference between Adams and Williams than Jordy and Dez
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6542
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
Average Time to Throw

Cam Newton CAR QB 2.70

Trevor Siemian DEN QB 2.72

Marcus Mariota TEN QB 2.75

Colin Kaepernick SF QB 2.76

Jay Cutler CHI QB 2.77

Kirk Cousins WAS QB 2.81

Dak Prescott DAL QB 2.87

Aaron Rodgers GB QB 2.87

Andrew Luck IND QB 2.88

Jameis Winston TB QB 2.89

Tyrod Taylor BUF QB 3.12


Source??
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persiandud


Joined: 08 Oct 2011
Posts: 2916
Location: Davis, CA
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stevein2012 wrote:
persiandud wrote:
I'm not giving him a pass. I'm saying he's a better player than Jordy right now.


You are acting like there's some large chasm between him and Jordy and very little difference between Adams and Williams. Jordy was still a very high level player the back end of last season and Dez hasn't really been an elite guy for a couple seasons now. There's a bigger difference between Adams and Williams than Jordy and Dez


where are you getting this? all i said is that he's the better player.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2327
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:

If you look at all of Adams targets from 2016 you will see that where he creates the most separation is almost immediately after the snap. That's the type of the player he is, the longer Rodgers holds onto the ball the more time it gives the CB to catch up to Adams.


Lets assume I take this as fact. Adams beats players at the line and gets the majority of his targets, which would mean that Rodgers really only throws to WR that are open by a nice separation.

Yet you are also making the argument that Rodgers also often throws into tight coverage

Cadmus wrote:


Also, the statement that Rodgers doesn't throw into tight coverage is a complete and total crock. He has the highest completion percentage in the NFL throwing into tight coverage (<1 yard) and Davante Adams had the highest catch rate IN THE NFL on contested catches (again, <1 yard of separation).


Something does not seem to line up here.


What doesn't line up? Adams is usually in tight coverage on longer developing routes. Look at any of the targets on go routes, the CBs usually start to close the gap just as the ball arrives.

About 1/5 of Adams targets were in tight coverage, which means Rodgers isn't afraid to target WRs he trusts.


Last edited by Cadmus on Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:54 am; edited 2 times in total
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Pugger


Joined: 01 May 2010
Posts: 14706
Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

persiandud wrote:
Pugger, those stats have a lot to do with the QB throwing them the ball, as well.


True, but do you think NE's WR corps would be rated as high without Brady?
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2327
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
Average Time to Throw

Cam Newton CAR QB 2.70

Trevor Siemian DEN QB 2.72

Marcus Mariota TEN QB 2.75

Colin Kaepernick SF QB 2.76

Jay Cutler CHI QB 2.77

Kirk Cousins WAS QB 2.81

Dak Prescott DAL QB 2.87

Aaron Rodgers GB QB 2.87

Andrew Luck IND QB 2.88

Jameis Winston TB QB 2.89

Tyrod Taylor BUF QB 3.12


Source??


http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6542
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:

If you look at all of Adams targets from 2016 you will see that where he creates the most separation is almost immediately after the snap. That's the type of the player he is, the longer Rodgers holds onto the ball the more time it gives the CB to catch up to Adams.


Lets assume I take this as fact. Adams beats players at the line and gets the majority of his targets, which would mean that Rodgers really only throws to WR that are open by a nice separation.

Yet you are also making the argument that Rodgers also often throws into tight coverage

Cadmus wrote:


Also, the statement that Rodgers doesn't throw into tight coverage is a complete and total crock. He has the highest completion percentage in the NFL throwing into tight coverage (<1 yard) and Davante Adams had the highest catch rate IN THE NFL on contested catches (again, <1 yard of separation).


Something does not seem to line up here.


What doesn't line up? Adams is usually in tight coverage on longer developing routes. Look at any of the targets on go routes, the CBs usually start to close the gap just as the ball arrives.

About 1/5 of Adams targets were in tight coverage, which means Rodgers isn't afraid to target WRs he trusts.


Care to provide a source for the numbers you are stating?

Adams has separation, Rodgers throws the ball, DB closes and thus it looks like a thrown into tight coverage, when it is really not.

These number need to be looked at on a play by play basis.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6542
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
Average Time to Throw

Cam Newton CAR QB 2.70

Trevor Siemian DEN QB 2.72

Marcus Mariota TEN QB 2.75

Colin Kaepernick SF QB 2.76

Jay Cutler CHI QB 2.77

Kirk Cousins WAS QB 2.81

Dak Prescott DAL QB 2.87

Aaron Rodgers GB QB 2.87

Andrew Luck IND QB 2.88

Jameis Winston TB QB 2.89

Tyrod Taylor BUF QB 3.12


Source??


http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow


Thanks for sharing. So the number point to Rodgers hold the ball on a good % of his throws.

Taylor
Luck
Winston
are the only 3 QB's that had longer times, with Taylor having almost 30% less attempts
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HorizontoZenith


Joined: 03 Mar 2016
Posts: 4684
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't trust our receivers to stay healthy. Big reason why I wouldn't call them top 10. I'm certainly not condoning us taking a first round receiver because I would absolutely hate that unless it was Ross. I just feel like we don't have a receiver that corners FEAR.

Jordy is a receiver that teams have to RESPECT. Not because of his speed anymore, but because of his all around game.

Davante is a receiver limited by his top end speed and consistency. I usually don't even pay attention to the finer details, but even I can recognize he's got some pretty darn good feet and route running.

Cobb I don't trust at all. He can come in and play like the contract we signed him to was a steal while going five-six weeks looking like the receiver equivalent to Erik Walden.

The biggest issue comes down to depth after them. Allison, Davis and Janis are the best receiver in the NFL if you combine all their strengths together. They're also the worst receiver in the NFL if you combine all their faults.

This is why I would like to get a safe pick in rounds 3-4 at receiver. I really like the idea of Cooper Kupp. Even if that means we let go one of Allison or Davis.

With our receivers it's not about talent, it's about their limitations. There just isn't a top threat there.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2327
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:

If you look at all of Adams targets from 2016 you will see that where he creates the most separation is almost immediately after the snap. That's the type of the player he is, the longer Rodgers holds onto the ball the more time it gives the CB to catch up to Adams.


Lets assume I take this as fact. Adams beats players at the line and gets the majority of his targets, which would mean that Rodgers really only throws to WR that are open by a nice separation.

Yet you are also making the argument that Rodgers also often throws into tight coverage

Cadmus wrote:


Also, the statement that Rodgers doesn't throw into tight coverage is a complete and total crock. He has the highest completion percentage in the NFL throwing into tight coverage (<1 yard) and Davante Adams had the highest catch rate IN THE NFL on contested catches (again, <1 yard of separation).


Something does not seem to line up here.


What doesn't line up? Adams is usually in tight coverage on longer developing routes. Look at any of the targets on go routes, the CBs usually start to close the gap just as the ball arrives.

About 1/5 of Adams targets were in tight coverage, which means Rodgers isn't afraid to target WRs he trusts.


Care to provide a source for the numbers you are stating?

Adams has separation, Rodgers throws the ball, DB closes and thus it looks like a thrown into tight coverage, when it is really not.

These number need to be looked at on a play by play basis.


It's all from Matt Harmon on NFL.com. He started the Reception Perception project a few years ago. I'd highly recommend checking out his articles on the 2017 WR DPs.

I'm done with this conversation for now... it's going nowhere.
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gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 3148
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Packers have 4 key needs going into the draft from my point of view:

CB
Edge
RB
Guard

Now you can argue in what order those priorities are, but if those positions are not your first 4 picks then maybe it is time for a shake-up.
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Stevein2012


Joined: 12 Jul 2013
Posts: 1661
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gizmo2012 wrote:
The Packers have 4 key needs going into the draft from my point of view:

CB
Edge
RB
Guard

Now you can argue in what order those priorities are, but if those positions are not your first 4 picks then maybe it is time for a shake-up.


That's not a good way to look at the draft at all. If you go edge, RB in the first 2 picks and in RD3 there isn't a draftable CB or OL you aren't taking one
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6542
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:


About 1/5 of Adams targets were in tight coverage, which means Rodgers isn't afraid to target WRs he trusts.


Not sure where you are calculating but 23 of his 146 targets were in tight coverage. 15-16%.

As for Adams being the top WR in tight coverage, 23 targets is a pretty small sample size. Most all the top 10 were under 25 total targets.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000773531/article/davante-adams-leads-top10-wrs-in-tight-coverage

Certainly interesting stats to consider, is it the throw or the catch that is the difference in those situations.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6542
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stevein2012 wrote:
gizmo2012 wrote:
The Packers have 4 key needs going into the draft from my point of view:

CB
Edge
RB
Guard

Now you can argue in what order those priorities are, but if those positions are not your first 4 picks then maybe it is time for a shake-up.


That's not a good way to look at the draft at all. If you go edge, RB in the first 2 picks and in RD3 there isn't a draftable CB or OL you aren't taking one


Agreed. It has to be value of player/position relative to what you could get later.
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blankman0021


Joined: 02 May 2007
Posts: 2735
Location: MKE
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
I wouldn't say Green Bay has a top 10 receiving corps. At all.


I agree. It wasn't long ago, during last season, when we were wondering why our receivers couldn't consistently separate from coverage. (Pro Tip: it's because as a whole they aren't that good)


I just can't guys...

Yards of separation at target.

#1 WRs --> Jordy Nelson was 5th in the NFL [2.68] (That number steadily increased throughout the season)

#2 WRs --> Davante Adams was 1st in the NFL [2.89]

Slot WRs --> Randall Cobb was 2nd in the NFL [3.42]

Anyone who honestly thinks that Green Bay doesn't have a Top 10 WR corps needs to reassess that opinion.

They are certainly in the conversation for Top 5 when everyone is healthy.


cadmus,

Your post above speaks to the WR ability to create separation. If this is true, then Rodgers should not need to hold the ball as long as he does. I think most would agree that Rodgers often does hold the ball waiting for WR to create separation. That leads to your stat being less valuable unless you can tie it to the time in which the pass is thrown.


Are you sure that Rodgers is holding the ball waiting for receivers to get separation, or he's holding the ball longer waiting for the big play instead of the checkdown pass? Watch GBs offense when we're forced to go up-tempo and get the ball out quick. The WRs seem to be open quickly then.

I'm very confident that the time Rodgers holds the ball has more to do with his play style and offensive design than it does with how open our WRs are. Guys like Stafford will throw the ball into tighter windows routinely. Rodgers doesn't. He doesn't like INTs, so he's not going to throw as many 50/50 balls. That affects both time-before-throw and yards of separation.

You can't just discredit the stat without talking about all the variables there.
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