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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2337
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
I wouldn't say Green Bay has a top 10 receiving corps. At all.


I agree. It wasn't long ago, during last season, when we were wondering why our receivers couldn't consistently separate from coverage. (Pro Tip: it's because as a whole they aren't that good)


I just can't guys...

Yards of separation at target.

#1 WRs --> Jordy Nelson was 5th in the NFL [2.68] (That number steadily increased throughout the season)

#2 WRs --> Davante Adams was 1st in the NFL [2.89]

Slot WRs --> Randall Cobb was 2nd in the NFL [3.42]

Anyone who honestly thinks that Green Bay doesn't have a Top 10 WR corps needs to reassess that opinion.

They are certainly in the conversation for Top 5 when everyone is healthy.



correlation =/= causation

I think pesiandud has explained how flawed relying on that information is.

IF the GB WR were that special in creating separation, Rodgers would not need to hold the ball so long for them to get said separation.


No one said that.

I fully realize that Rodgers has something to do with that, but you need to look at the disparity between Nelson, Adams, and Cobb and then compare them to the 10th ranked player in each category. You will quickly realize that there's no way Rodgers can be solely responsible for that disparity.

Let's put it this way.

Is Jordy Nelson a Top 10 WR?

Is Davante Adams a Top 10 #2 WR?

Is Randall Cobb a Top 10 Slot WR?
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persiandud


Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
IF the GB WR were that special in creating separation, Rodgers would not need to hold the ball so long for them to get said separation.


well said, and that's something i failed to mention.

If our receivers are adept at separating from coverage, why doesn't Rodgers throw it in on time, in rhythm, on a consistent basis? We are a West Coast offense, after all...
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Cadmus


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

persiandud wrote:


Tell me, what is Davante Adams that much better at than Dallas' #2 boundary option, Terrance Williams? Is Adams THAT much better than Williams, that we are willing to take GB's group over Dallas'? I wouldn't. Dez is clearly better than Jordy right now, and Williams and Beasley are a wash with Adams and Cobb.


Yes.

Williams is straight up terrible.

How can you possibly defend that?
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HorizontoZenith


Joined: 03 Mar 2016
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
Bengals, Steelers, Texans


Are these 3 supposed to be a joke? I mean... I don't agree with others, but the inclusion of 3 teams that don't even have well-established #2s is interesting... I don't think the fans of any of those teams would agree with you to be completely honest.

A joke?

I'll give you the Bengals just because I don't want to make a case for them.

But how could the Steelers and Texans possibly be a joke heading into 2017?

Heyward-Bay, Bryant and Brown?
Fuller and Hopkins are gonna be pretty damn good in 2017 as long as the Texans don't sign Ossweiler after he gets cut by the Browns.
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persiandud


Joined: 08 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:


Tell me, what is Davante Adams that much better at than Dallas' #2 boundary option, Terrance Williams? Is Adams THAT much better than Williams, that we are willing to take GB's group over Dallas'? I wouldn't. Dez is clearly better than Jordy right now, and Williams and Beasley are a wash with Adams and Cobb.


Yes.

Williams is straight up terrible.


And I think Adams is mediocre. He's not that much better.

And Beasley is one of the best slot receivers in the game. He's a wash with Cobb

So okay, here's how I think of it

Dez > Jordy
Williams < Adams
Beasley = Cobb

Here is what you think of it, most likely?

Dez > Jordy
Williams < Adams
Beasley < Cobb

Agree to disagree? The disparity in #1 WR's to me outweighs the slight advantages elsewhere. You can have your depth.


Last edited by persiandud on Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:23 am; edited 1 time in total
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
I wouldn't say Green Bay has a top 10 receiving corps. At all.


I agree. It wasn't long ago, during last season, when we were wondering why our receivers couldn't consistently separate from coverage. (Pro Tip: it's because as a whole they aren't that good)


I just can't guys...

Yards of separation at target.

#1 WRs --> Jordy Nelson was 5th in the NFL [2.68] (That number steadily increased throughout the season)

#2 WRs --> Davante Adams was 1st in the NFL [2.89]

Slot WRs --> Randall Cobb was 2nd in the NFL [3.42]

Anyone who honestly thinks that Green Bay doesn't have a Top 10 WR corps needs to reassess that opinion.

They are certainly in the conversation for Top 5 when everyone is healthy.


cadmus,

Your post above speaks to the WR ability to create separation. If this is true, then Rodgers should not need to hold the ball as long as he does. I think most would agree that Rodgers often does hold the ball waiting for WR to create separation. That leads to your stat being less valuable unless you can tie it to the time in which the pass is thrown.
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vegas492


Joined: 30 Oct 2012
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Location: Pewaukee, Wisconsin
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DraftHobbyist wrote:
Our plan has to be to absolutely take a WR. The question is when. I don't think we have to panic and reach on a guy, but if we can get value at any point in the Draft, including the 1st Round, we should take it. I think Corey Davis fits this team really well and could fall with his injury, especially if he isn't pay to work out at his personal day. I think John Ross combines an elite speed trait with quickness, being an actual football player, beating presses, playing through contact, etc., so I'd be interested in him. Chris Godwin tested better than I expected, and his film is excellent. I love him, and I think he's a perfect fit for us. I think Chad Hansen proved that his athleticism is quite good to go along with some very good tape, and I again think he's a great fit for us. Noah Brown came in with a faster-than-expected 4.55 40, and at his 6'2" 222 lb size, he combines some good tape with size and pretty solid athleticism.

Those are mainly 1st or 2nd Round picks. If you're looking for a later pick, Fred Ross is a guy not many are talking about but I really like. I liked his tape a lot, but I worried about his athleticism. He tested better than I expected, and he actually had quite a lot of production. He had 72 receptions for 917 receiving yards and 12 TD's. Ross accounted for over 1/3rd of his team's receiving yards, and 1/2 of his team's receiving TD's. I think Fred Ross fits what we want to do, and he is a guy where value could really meet the pick late in the Draft. He is a late Day 3 projection from everything I've read.


I too think it would be tough to pass on Corey Davis in the first round if he is there. I love his game. Strength, speed, hands, route running ability. The kid has all of those tools, although many of them need refining, which he would get in GB. Here's the best thing...he'd come here and NOT have to produce much in the first year. He can be the #4 WR and learn from some great veterans. I'm a big fan of Davis.

I also love Ju-Ju in this draft. Round 3 or later. Smooth kid, polished. Smart. Wins as much with route running as he does with pure ability. I'm a huge fan of his. But, he's not going to run by anyone, so that may cause him to slide.

I too like Goodwin, but I'm not a fan of his before the third round.

Ross? I liken Ross to a fancy Italian sportscar. Looks great in the garage. Engine purrs while idling. And is ultimately in the shop a lot. I don't think that he is as much of a football player as he is an athlete. Just seems like his body gets nicked up a lot. I wouldn't trust him where you need to take him, despite the amazing speed that he has.

I like Jones, too, but in the third along with Shuster. I think that is the round you need to look at for a WR selection. Until then, GB needs to look at defense. Corner and OLB. My only exception right now is Corey Davis.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2337
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HorizontoZenith wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
Bengals, Steelers, Texans


Are these 3 supposed to be a joke? I mean... I don't agree with others, but the inclusion of 3 teams that don't even have well-established #2s is interesting... I don't think the fans of any of those teams would agree with you to be completely honest.

A joke?

I'll give you the Bengals just because I don't want to make a case for them.

But how could the Steelers and Texans possibly be a joke heading into 2017?

Heyward-Bay, Bryant and Brown?


The Steelers have been talking about Martavis in the past tense so there's no way you can include him on the Steelers depth chart. Plus, Heyward-Bey isn't the #2 there right now its Eli Rogers. Why am I having a discussion about WR corps with someone who doesn't even know the depth chart of the team they are arguing for?

HorizontoZenith wrote:
Fuller and Hopkins are gonna be pretty damn good in 2017 as long as the Texans don't sign Ossweiler after he gets cut by the Browns


You would rather have Fuller, Hopkins and Miller than Nelson, Adams, and Cobb? Why don't we ask a few Texans fans?
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Stevein2012


Joined: 12 Jul 2013
Posts: 1671
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

persiandud wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:


Tell me, what is Davante Adams that much better at than Dallas' #2 boundary option, Terrance Williams? Is Adams THAT much better than Williams, that we are willing to take GB's group over Dallas'? I wouldn't. Dez is clearly better than Jordy right now, and Williams and Beasley are a wash with Adams and Cobb.


Yes.

Williams is straight up terrible.


And I think Adams is mediocre. He's not that much better.

And Beasley is one of the best slot receivers in the game. He's a wash with Cobb

So okay, here's how I think of it

Dez > Jordy
Williams < Adams
Beasley = Cobb

Here is what you think of it, most likely?

Dez > Jordy
Williams < Adams
Beasley < Cobb

Agree to disagree? The disparity in #1 WR's to me outweighs the slight advantages elsewhere. You can have your depth.


The difference between Dez and Jordy is nowhere near as large as you are making it seem. Dez just like Jordy has lost something with injuries. It's not fair to think of Jordy as falling off his prime due to injury when Dez has been impacted similarly yet give him a pass
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persiandud


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not giving him a pass. I'm saying he's a better player than Jordy right now.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2337
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
I wouldn't say Green Bay has a top 10 receiving corps. At all.


I agree. It wasn't long ago, during last season, when we were wondering why our receivers couldn't consistently separate from coverage. (Pro Tip: it's because as a whole they aren't that good)


I just can't guys...

Yards of separation at target.

#1 WRs --> Jordy Nelson was 5th in the NFL [2.68] (That number steadily increased throughout the season)

#2 WRs --> Davante Adams was 1st in the NFL [2.89]

Slot WRs --> Randall Cobb was 2nd in the NFL [3.42]

Anyone who honestly thinks that Green Bay doesn't have a Top 10 WR corps needs to reassess that opinion.

They are certainly in the conversation for Top 5 when everyone is healthy.


cadmus,

Your post above speaks to the WR ability to create separation. If this is true, then Rodgers should not need to hold the ball as long as he does. I think most would agree that Rodgers often does hold the ball waiting for WR to create separation. That leads to your stat being less valuable unless you can tie it to the time in which the pass is thrown.


If you look at all of Adams targets from 2016 you will see that where he creates the most separation is almost immediately after the snap. That's the type of the player he is, the longer Rodgers holds onto the ball the more time it gives the CB to catch up to Adams.
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Pugger


Joined: 01 May 2010
Posts: 14734
Location: Green Bay for the summer.
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
I wouldn't say Green Bay has a top 10 receiving corps. At all.


I agree. It wasn't long ago, during last season, when we were wondering why our receivers couldn't consistently separate from coverage. (Pro Tip: it's because as a whole they aren't that good)


I just can't guys...

Yards of separation at target.

#1 WRs --> Jordy Nelson was 5th in the NFL [2.68] (That number steadily increased throughout the season)

#2 WRs --> Davante Adams was 1st in the NFL [2.89]

Slot WRs --> Randall Cobb was 2nd in the NFL [3.42]

Anyone who honestly thinks that Green Bay doesn't have a Top 10 WR corps needs to reassess that opinion.

They are certainly in the conversation for Top 5 when everyone is healthy.



correlation =/= causation

I think pesiandud has explained how flawed relying on that information is.

IF the GB WR were that special in creating separation, Rodgers would not need to hold the ball so long for them to get said separation.


No one said that.

I fully realize that Rodgers has something to do with that, but you need to look at the disparity between Nelson, Adams, and Cobb and then compare them to the 10th ranked player in each category. You will quickly realize that there's no way Rodgers can be solely responsible for that disparity.

Let's put it this way.

Is Jordy Nelson a Top 10 WR?

Is Davante Adams a Top 10 #2 WR?

Is Randall Cobb a Top 10 Slot WR?


I think so. Jordy started the season off slow but really came on as the season progressed. By the end of the season he was in the top 10 in receiving yards and #1 in TDs with 14.

Davante Adams was #26 in receiving yards and #2 in TDs with 12 so I would say he is a top 10 #2.

Last season Cobb was considered a top 10 slot receiver.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000776994/article/jamison-crowder-leads-top10-slot-receiver-separation

I think some of us are underestimating our WR corps. Ted will draft another WR in the next draft because he seems to do so every year.
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persiandud


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pugger, those stats have a lot to do with the QB throwing them the ball, as well.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
Posts: 6558
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
squire12 wrote:
Cadmus wrote:
persiandud wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
I wouldn't say Green Bay has a top 10 receiving corps. At all.


I agree. It wasn't long ago, during last season, when we were wondering why our receivers couldn't consistently separate from coverage. (Pro Tip: it's because as a whole they aren't that good)


I just can't guys...

Yards of separation at target.

#1 WRs --> Jordy Nelson was 5th in the NFL [2.68] (That number steadily increased throughout the season)

#2 WRs --> Davante Adams was 1st in the NFL [2.89]

Slot WRs --> Randall Cobb was 2nd in the NFL [3.42]

Anyone who honestly thinks that Green Bay doesn't have a Top 10 WR corps needs to reassess that opinion.

They are certainly in the conversation for Top 5 when everyone is healthy.


cadmus,

Your post above speaks to the WR ability to create separation. If this is true, then Rodgers should not need to hold the ball as long as he does. I think most would agree that Rodgers often does hold the ball waiting for WR to create separation. That leads to your stat being less valuable unless you can tie it to the time in which the pass is thrown.


If you look at all of Adams targets from 2016 you will see that where he creates the most separation is almost immediately after the snap. That's the type of the player he is, the longer Rodgers holds onto the ball the more time it gives the CB to catch up to Adams.


Lets assume I take this as fact. Adams beats players at the line and gets the majority of his targets, which would mean that Rodgers really only throws to WR that are open by a nice separation.

Yet you are also making the argument that Rodgers also often throws into tight coverage

Cadmus wrote:


Also, the statement that Rodgers doesn't throw into tight coverage is a complete and total crock. He has the highest completion percentage in the NFL throwing into tight coverage (<1 yard) and Davante Adams had the highest catch rate IN THE NFL on contested catches (again, <1 yard of separation).


Something does not seem to line up here.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Average Time to Throw

Cam Newton CAR QB 2.70

Trevor Siemian DEN QB 2.72

Marcus Mariota TEN QB 2.75

Colin Kaepernick SF QB 2.76

Jay Cutler CHI QB 2.77

Kirk Cousins WAS QB 2.81

Dak Prescott DAL QB 2.87

Aaron Rodgers GB QB 2.87

Andrew Luck IND QB 2.88

Jameis Winston TB QB 2.89

Tyrod Taylor BUF QB 3.12
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