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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
Posts: 6883
PostPosted: Fri Mar 31, 2017 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
^^^

A few things to your post AK:

I understand where you're coming from with his age, but in general, a guy who is 25 and more physically mature should be dominating his competition. I did not always see Bolles doing that in the three or so games I've watched. He may have less wear and tear, that's true, but it also means he's quite potentially an anomaly. One year wonders make me quite nervous.

Bolles is a nasty SOB which I do like about him. I think that toughness is sorely needed on our line..


You're forgetting the "jonny" factor. Great ( but too infrequent IMO ) poster. He's watched Bolles more than any of us and has a track record of good calls.

I've got a pretty decent record on OL also. So.. jonny likes the guy at 20, and assuaged all my concerns about the kid.

I pay far more attention to the posters here than I do any media source as far as player evaluation. We've got some great ones! I always listen to you on skill players. You've got a good record there.

Anyway, bottom line, IMO by his 3rd year Bolles will be one of the best LT's in the business if not sooner. If he's available when we draft and we pass him over we'd have a decade or more to regret it.
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Counselor


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still think Cam Robinson can be a successful LT. I'm really torn on a the tackle options. This would be a good draft for us to try and trade back up in the end of round 1. Get out of the first with a LT and an impact offensive player at RB or TE
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French Fan


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i don't understand why everybody try to determine who is the best LT in this draft between Bolles , Ramczyk or Robinson.
Elway will draft the BPA and none will be the BPA when the Broncos draft. Execpt if we trade down in 2nd round.
You doesn't build a team with need.
Faith in John .
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thebestever6


Joined: 03 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't get this best player available line. What does is even mean? It's all discretionary, subjective fan talk.

You're telling me a runningback holds as much value as an offensive tackle in round one they don't I'll save you the trouble. Unless they're generational rbs.

There's so much more than just skill you're looking at. You have to see how they compare to prospects you can get later say the drop off from the OT's are significant from tge first to the second, you have to factor thar it. You have to factor in how rare a guy is if he reaches a ceiling. What positions are hardest to find in free agency.

Ig I'm elway unless there's a rare skilled talent that stands out as the best player available I'm gettimg a tackle.
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jolly red giant


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peters has an $11.2million cap hit for next season.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebestever6 wrote:
I don't get this best player available line. What does is even mean? It's all discretionary, subjective fan talk.

You're telling me a runningback holds as much value as an offensive tackle in round one they don't I'll save you the trouble. Unless they're generational rbs.

There's so much more than just skill you're looking at. You have to see how they compare to prospects you can get later say the drop off from the OT's are significant from tge first to the second, you have to factor thar it. You have to factor in how rare a guy is if he reaches a ceiling. What positions are hardest to find in free agency.

Ig I'm elway unless there's a rare skilled talent that stands out as the best player available I'm gettimg a tackle.


That's the point, though - BPA applies if there's a really big difference in skill. If there isn't a big difference then need certainly is justifiable. But picking at 1.20 if we go only for best T available there's a real risk that going that way blindly passes up a guy with a lot more talent.

People who are stating overall BPA are talking about if a special talent is there at 20, instead of a T guy who's serviceable Year 1, but not at the special ceiling level that may be there. When that happens, teams usually regret going need over talent. It's also why going need over talent isn't nearly as much of an issue after Rd 1, because the perceived gaps in talent aren't going to be that big in most drafts (although I think at 2.51 reaching for need again may cause a big drop in overall talent ceiling, this draft is much deeper than most).

And if you think people are exxagerating, to make the examples more concrete, let's look at 2010-2014 (2015-16 draft outcomes are still too early to call, by next season we'll know about 2015):

Link - http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2010&round=round1#round1 (and then you can just change the year on the upper right hand menu, and look at the different years).

2010 - SF takes T Anthony Davis at 1.11 to fill their T need....and lets Earl Thomas & JPP go in the next 4 picks, and later on in Rd 1, after going Mike Iupati for their G, lets both DT & Dez fall to us & DAL. I'm guessing SF would love to have those picks back, even though Iupati was actually very good. But classic need over BPA (although Dez off-the-field flags were a big reason for his drop).

2011 - SEA goes 1.25 James Carpenter at T and CHI goes 1.29 Gabe Carimi for their T - right in front of Muhammad Wilkerson & Cameron Heyward. Yikes. Major trench assets.

2012 - DET goes 1.23 Riley Reiff. That actually wasn't bad...but right after G David DeCastro, ILB Don'ta Hightower, OLB/EDGE Whitney Mercilus, G Kevin Zeitler, EDGE Nick Perry and FS Harrison Smith all go in Rd 1 after. Ouch. And we traded back to still pick Derek Wolfe. Reiff has been OK as a T...but all those other guys you can argue were much, much better, and would have upgraded their team then...and still now.

2013 - NYG takes Justin Pugh at 1.19 for T need...and pass up TE Tyler Eifert, CB Desmond Trufant, DT Sharrif Floyd, CB Xavier Rhodes and WR DeAndre Hopkins. Holy hell Batman. Stars at all the positions, NYG would have been able to not need to pick early to get guys there, or spend a ton of FA $. And NYG is still looking for OL and T help.

2014 - that was a T heavy year, great year, but MIA got caught when the top tier ended, and reached for 1.19 Juwan James. Bad reach there. And while the talent behind wasn't as deep as 2011-13, they still passed on WR Brandon Cooks, DE/EDGE Dee Ford, SS Deone Buchanan, and CB's Jason Verrett & Bradley Roby. Funny part is that if you look at MIA, they could use all those guys at the position. And since it was an awful miss, they had to go and spend another first rounder last year on Laremy Tunsil (a great pick, to be sure, for where he fell, but the James pick really stinks when you look at what they'd be like with any one of those other guys - they take Cooks, they don't take Devante Parker in 2015 Rd 1, or spend wasted $ on Julius Peppers at EDGE with Ford...you get the idea).

Now, again, I have no problem if we are going with a guy we really think is as good as the others available. But the only guy I see in that top 15 overall class is Forrest Lamp (#15). If there's a Rueben Foster/Hassan Reddick, or a Corey Davis...well I can't argue the call in passing up a T then - because I think they are Pro Bowl ceiling guys. Getting a guy who's OK at T in the long run and passing on an elite difference maker at another position is the trap good teams avoid. On the other hand, if all the top 9+ ceiling guys are gone, and it's all a bunch of 8's, and we think a T capable guy is there...ok. But honestly if we have a 9+ at another position on the board, Lamp is the only 9+ OL I see in this draft. Then I'm OK if Elway passes.

Finally, remember the real impact most players offer is Year 2-5 for first-rounders, unless the position has a really easy learning curve. It's why going need as the only deciding factor and ignoring a major gap in talent is what people are repeating about going BPA. Again, if no appreciable gap exists, and in this case, guys like Foster/Reddick/Davis are gone and off the board, I get going need. But the above should be a sobering reminder of the pitfalls of blindly following need - and clearly at 1.20, it's a risk, history has shown this time and again.

P.S. Why I'm OK with passing on TE's at 1.20 - I have 7 TE's between 8.0 - 8.6 grade wise. I'm fine with letting a TE fall to Rd 2 for us by then, better combo.
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Last edited by Broncofan on Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:24 am; edited 1 time in total
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebestever6 wrote:
I don't get this best player available line. What does is even mean? It's all discretionary, subjective fan talk.

You're telling me a runningback holds as much value as an offensive tackle in round one they don't I'll save you the trouble. Unless they're generational rbs.

There's so much more than just skill you're looking at. You have to see how they compare to prospects you can get later say the drop off from the OT's are significant from tge first to the second, you have to factor thar it. You have to factor in how rare a guy is if he reaches a ceiling. What positions are hardest to find in free agency.

Ig I'm elway unless there's a rare skilled talent that stands out as the best player available I'm gettimg a tackle.


A very good RB prospect would absolutely have as much or more value as an average to slightly above average OT prospect. It's based on how good a player projects to be. Too many Broncos fans are in the mindset that we are only an LT away from contending. We aren't, and if we approach this draft (which is critically important to future success) with that mindset we're going to be floundering in our division for awhile.

Denver has very little offensive talent, and very little cheap defensive talent. We're 70/30 FA to drafted players. That model has proven totally unsustainable in the NFL. We need to knock this draft out of the park, especially in Rounds 2 + 3. Going BPA is a great way to do that.
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thebestever6


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:
thebestever6 wrote:
I don't get this best player available line. What does is even mean? It's all discretionary, subjective fan talk.

You're telling me a runningback holds as much value as an offensive tackle in round one they don't I'll save you the trouble. Unless they're generational rbs.

There's so much more than just skill you're looking at. You have to see how they compare to prospects you can get later say the drop off from the OT's are significant from tge first to the second, you have to factor thar it. You have to factor in how rare a guy is if he reaches a ceiling. What positions are hardest to find in free agency.

Ig I'm elway unless there's a rare skilled talent that stands out as the best player available I'm gettimg a tackle.


A very good RB prospect would absolutely have as much or more value as an average to slightly above average OT prospect. It's based on how good a player projects to be. Too many Broncos fans are in the mindset that we are only an LT away from contending. We aren't, and if we approach this draft (which is critically important to future success) with that mindset we're going to be floundering in our division for awhile.

Denver has very little offensive talent, and very little cheap defensive talent. We're 70/30 FA to drafted players. That model has proven totally unsustainable in the NFL. We need to knock this draft out of the park, especially in Rounds 2 + 3. Going BPA is a great way to do that.



It all revolves aroind the qb position for instance in mannings first,three years we had a 7-9 to 8 and 8 football team but manning got us to 12 and 4 year,in and year out.

if siemian or lynch are the answer we aren't far off. Left tackle, more offensive skill position depth, d line depth shatters, linebacker, future corner.

If lynch and Siemian aren't the answer we need a franchise qb and all of those other needs.
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebestever6 wrote:
broncos67 wrote:
thebestever6 wrote:
I don't get this best player available line. What does is even mean? It's all discretionary, subjective fan talk.

You're telling me a runningback holds as much value as an offensive tackle in round one they don't I'll save you the trouble. Unless they're generational rbs.

There's so much more than just skill you're looking at. You have to see how they compare to prospects you can get later say the drop off from the OT's are significant from tge first to the second, you have to factor thar it. You have to factor in how rare a guy is if he reaches a ceiling. What positions are hardest to find in free agency.

Ig I'm elway unless there's a rare skilled talent that stands out as the best player available I'm gettimg a tackle.


A very good RB prospect would absolutely have as much or more value as an average to slightly above average OT prospect. It's based on how good a player projects to be. Too many Broncos fans are in the mindset that we are only an LT away from contending. We aren't, and if we approach this draft (which is critically important to future success) with that mindset we're going to be floundering in our division for awhile.

Denver has very little offensive talent, and very little cheap defensive talent. We're 70/30 FA to drafted players. That model has proven totally unsustainable in the NFL. We need to knock this draft out of the park, especially in Rounds 2 + 3. Going BPA is a great way to do that.



It all revolves aroind the qb position for instance in mannings first,three years we had a 7-9 to 8 and 8 football team but manning got us to 12 and 4 year,in and year out.

if siemian or lynch are the answer we aren't far off. Left tackle, more offensive skill position depth, d line depth shatters, linebacker, future corner.

If lynch and Siemian aren't the answer we need a franchise qb and all of those other needs.


You could say that for most teams though. Yes, QB is the most important position in football, and really in all of sports. But Peyton Manning is a transcendent talent, even in his later years. He's not the run of the mill "franchise QB"- he was one of the best ever to play. I would also add that Denver won a SB in a way not often done (with a very bad offense).

Denver obviously needs OL for the long run. It's a major issue and we need to find more capable players than we currently have. But that process takes time. In addition to that, we have no TE, questionable RB play at best and no WR depth. Couple that with extremely weak DL depth and the need for another ILB. The reality is, Lynch or Siemian may be our QBOTF, one probably is, but they aren't going to be Manning, and because of that, they require a stronger team around them at all positions.
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jsthomp2007


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 - I am pretty sure the Broncos have TEs, I don't know of a team that doesn't. It would be odd if a team went with nothing but wideouts and linemen. But, I could be wrong.
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AKRNA


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncos67 wrote:


Denver obviously needs OL for the long run. It's a major issue and we need to find more capable players than we currently have. But that process takes time. In addition to that, we have no TE, questionable RB play at best and no WR depth. Couple that with extremely weak DL depth and the need for another ILB. The reality is, Lynch or Siemian may be our QBOTF, one probably is, but they aren't going to be Manning, and because of that, they require a stronger team around them at all positions.


When does that time start though? That's my issue.

We have a very lousy/failed personnel policy with the OL. For FA's we won't spend for top tier players and keep picking up other teams rejects, expecting them to shine here.

As far as the draft we've only spent one top 50 (#46) pick on an OLineman since Elways been here. Only three in the top 100. The only gem we've picked up is Paradis. Really bad track record.

Anyway, our policy of cheap FA O-linemen and mid round "developmental" O-Linemen every year hasn't worked. At some point you have to make a sizable commitment, either financial, draft pick or both.

To continue our present policies and expect different results is the definition of insanity.
We don't seem to want to do either.
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thebestever6


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AKRNA wrote:
broncos67 wrote:


Denver obviously needs OL for the long run. It's a major issue and we need to find more capable players than we currently have. But that process takes time. In addition to that, we have no TE, questionable RB play at best and no WR depth. Couple that with extremely weak DL depth and the need for another ILB. The reality is, Lynch or Siemian may be our QBOTF, one probably is, but they aren't going to be Manning, and because of that, they require a stronger team around them at all positions.


When does that time start though? That's my issue.

We have a very lousy/failed personnel policy with the OL. For FA's we won't spend for top tier players and keep picking up other teams rejects, expecting them to shine here.

As far as the draft we've only spent one top 50 (#46) pick on an OLineman since Elways been here. Only three in the top 100. The only gem we've picked up is Paradis. Really bad track record.

Anyway, our policy of cheap FA O-linemen and mid round "developmental" O-Linemen every year hasn't worked. At some point you have to make a sizable commitment, either financial, draft pick or both.

To continue our present policies and expect different results is the definition of insanity.
We don't seem to want to do either.


This team is gonna take the best value for this football team we've seen it time and time again since elway has been here. You look at 2012 broncos trade down and don't miss out on much if of anything by trading down than they use a top pick in the second round to draft first round production in Derrick Wolfe. 2013 was waah such a bad draft. In my opinion thet had bell and ball graded similarly but snagged what they rhoughr was a contributor in sly not a horrible draft but they were wrong on ball and Sly's impact. 2014 they nabbed Roby looking at players drafted after him especially at corner it was a great pick. He's a contributor nabbing 5 picks in his short career. They could have traded down to get Landry or Robison but a corner is better value than wr especially in that class.

2015 they pick up Ray and that looks like a great pick you see the guys draftes after him and nothing special pops up he seems like a guy worth the risk at the time and now and I love the pick.
2016 the jury is still out I'd agree but Paxton was solid for a rookie in limited playing time. I mean you look at this years draft and all of the qbs seem to have a huge learning curve but some are prokected to go high. I'd stilll takd Lynch with his tremendous potential and year under his belt.

Elway ans company havw done a great job of wewsimg out hype, and I'm excited t see them have 4 picks im the top 100.I think he mixes and matches the best value for the Broncosto be successful. With that being said I think Hasson Reddick will be a Bronco.
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AKRNA


Joined: 28 May 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebestever6 wrote:
AKRNA wrote:
broncos67 wrote:


Denver obviously needs OL for the long run. It's a major issue and we need to find more capable players than we currently have. But that process takes time. In addition to that, we have no TE, questionable RB play at best and no WR depth. Couple that with extremely weak DL depth and the need for another ILB. The reality is, Lynch or Siemian may be our QBOTF, one probably is, but they aren't going to be Manning, and because of that, they require a stronger team around them at all positions.


When does that time start though? That's my issue.

We have a very lousy/failed personnel policy with the OL. For FA's we won't spend for top tier players and keep picking up other teams rejects, expecting them to shine here.

As far as the draft we've only spent one top 50 (#46) pick on an OLineman since Elways been here. Only three in the top 100. The only gem we've picked up is Paradis. Really bad track record.

Anyway, our policy of cheap FA O-linemen and mid round "developmental" O-Linemen every year hasn't worked. At some point you have to make a sizable commitment, either financial, draft pick or both.

To continue our present policies and expect different results is the definition of insanity.
We don't seem to want to do either.


This team is gonna take the best value for this football team we've seen it time and time again since elway has been here. You look at 2012 broncos trade down and don't miss out on much if of anything by trading down than they use a top pick in the second round to draft first round production in Derrick Wolfe. 2013 was waah such a bad draft. In my opinion thet had bell and ball graded similarly but snagged what they rhoughr was a contributor in sly not a horrible draft but they were wrong on ball and Sly's impact. 2014 they nabbed Roby looking at players drafted after him especially at corner it was a great pick. He's a contributor nabbing 5 picks in his short career. They could have traded down to get Landry or Robison but a corner is better value than wr especially in that class.

2015 they pick up Ray and that looks like a great pick you see the guys draftes after him and nothing special pops up he seems like a guy worth the risk at the time and now and I love the pick.
2016 the jury is still out I'd agree but Paxton was solid for a rookie in limited playing time. I mean you look at this years draft and all of the qbs seem to have a huge learning curve but some are prokected to go high. I'd stilll takd Lynch with his tremendous potential and year under his belt.

Elway ans company havw done a great job of wewsimg out hype, and I'm excited t see them have 4 picks im the top 100.I think he mixes and matches the best value for the Broncosto be successful. With that being said I think Hasson Reddick will be a Bronco.


I've read and re-read your post and can't figure out what it has to do with mine. I was pretty specific about and only about OL issues.

You don't mention those in your "response" Please enlighten me.
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As far as the OL goes I still have no issue with Lamp (my personal favorite), Bolles, or Robinson at #20.

As far as Bolles and his age I understand the concerns in one area and that's his strength/size. He's probably going to play right around 300 pounds his entire career. He makes up for this with his motor/ferocity, but I think he'll always be a guy that struggles anchoring vs more powerful players. The feet he has are unbelievable though. Don't care if he was 20 or 28, the feet/athleticism are LT worthy. I don't think he's a bookend LT in the sense of being one of the best in the league, but I can see him being a good starter for 8-10 years.
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Counselor


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
As far as the OL goes I still have no issue with Lamp (my personal favorite), Bolles, or Robinson at #20.

As far as Bolles and his age I understand the concerns in one area and that's his strength/size. He's probably going to play right around 300 pounds his entire career. He makes up for this with his motor/ferocity, but I think he'll always be a guy that struggles anchoring vs more powerful players. The feet he has are unbelievable though. Don't care if he was 20 or 28, the feet/athleticism are LT worthy. I don't think he's a bookend LT in the sense of being one of the best in the league, but I can see him being a good starter for 8-10 years.


What about Ramcyzk?
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