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QB Ball Velocity at Combine
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BleedTheClock


Joined: 17 Nov 2014
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
Maybe some scouts will freak out over this, but it's classic overanalysis IMO. If I were throwing at the combine, I'd be taking something off my throws too to ensure I was accurate.

You really don't get it.


Or perhaps you don't. But I guess that's an impossibility in your mind.


Are you not going to take something off in games to ensure that you're accurate?


No I wouldn't. Because there are actual NFL defenders to pick off those passes. At the scouting combine there aren't defenders lurking waiting to pick off your throws.
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CalhounLambeau


Joined: 05 May 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
Maybe some scouts will freak out over this, but it's classic overanalysis IMO. If I were throwing at the combine, I'd be taking something off my throws too to ensure I was accurate.

You really don't get it.


Or perhaps you don't. But I guess that's an impossibility in your mind.


Are you not going to take something off in games to ensure that you're accurate?

The bottom line here is that even though the MPH threshold is almost 100% accurate, it's horse pucky and not to be taken seriously.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
Maybe some scouts will freak out over this, but it's classic overanalysis IMO. If I were throwing at the combine, I'd be taking something off my throws too to ensure I was accurate.

You really don't get it.


Or perhaps you don't. But I guess that's an impossibility in your mind.


Are you not going to take something off in games to ensure that you're accurate?

The bottom line here is that even though the MPH threshold is almost 100% accurate, it's horse pucky and not to be taken seriously.


I don't think it's that meaningful. It should supplement the eye test.

BleedTheClock wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
BleedTheClock wrote:
Maybe some scouts will freak out over this, but it's classic overanalysis IMO. If I were throwing at the combine, I'd be taking something off my throws too to ensure I was accurate.

You really don't get it.


Or perhaps you don't. But I guess that's an impossibility in your mind.


Are you not going to take something off in games to ensure that you're accurate?


No I wouldn't. Because there are actual NFL defenders to pick off those passes. At the scouting combine there aren't defenders lurking waiting to pick off your throws.


Then you're being misled as to how accurate they are. Just like when a WR jogs a route at the Combine to help him make his cut crisper.
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gah112


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not a red flag that a guy has to take juice off his throws to get his mechanics down or throw the ball accurately?
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's really simple. There's no way to dispute the threshold. Making a comment that QB's "cut the juice at the combine" to some way diminish the statistics doesn't make sense because the results are consistent. That's why we're talking about it. If the results were a muddled mess it wouldn't be a thing.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
It's really simple. There's no way to dispute the threshold. Making a comment that QB's "cut the juice at the combine" to some way diminish the statistics doesn't make sense because the results are consistent. That's why we're talking about it. If the results were a muddled mess it wouldn't be a thing.


Well, you can dispute it. Mike Glennon, Tyrod Taylor, Dak Prescott, Brett Hundley, and A.J. McCarron all failed to meet it. All have outperformed their draft slot thus far.(well, Hundley is my own projection)

We also don't have data going further back. Drew Brees, for example, has consistently sat around 52 mph. We don't know where he would have placed.

It's easy to say that it separates the wheat from the chaff, but how many top picks have failed to meet the threshold?
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
It's easy to say that it separates the wheat from the chaff, but how many top picks have failed to meet the threshold?


I wouldn't really look at that threshold as a black and white argument, but rather more of a filter. I mean, you've pointed out players who outperformed their draft slots, but fail to mention all the players who haven't done anything with it. I think you look at it as a sort of "proceed with caution" mentality rather than if a player does throw X MPH, you take him off the board all together.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
It's easy to say that it separates the wheat from the chaff, but how many top picks have failed to meet the threshold?


I wouldn't really look at that threshold as a black and white argument, but rather more of a filter. I think you look at it as a sort of "proceed with caution" mentality rather than if a player does throw X MPH, you take him off the board all together.


Except R_C has sold it as exactly what you're saying not to do with it.

Quote:
I mean, you've pointed out players who outperformed their draft slots, but fail to mention all the players who haven't done anything with it.


Because they're not relevant to the point. I also didn't point out the players who didn't get the job done who met or passed the threshold. My point was that it's not a 100% accurate cut-off.

It's certainly worth noting. I just wouldn't treat it as an absolute exclusion.
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Well, you can dispute it. Mike Glennon, Tyrod Taylor, Dak Prescott, Brett Hundley, and A.J. McCarron all failed to meet it. All have outperformed their draft slot thus far.(well, Hundley is my own projection.

I don't care where they were drafted or what their expectations were. None of them have had sustained success at a high level. If a couple of them do down the road they'll be exceptions and that's fine. I'm well known for putting thresholds to the side specifically ones related to size when I like certain players. I'm not married to any of this stuff. I put it in perspective.

jrry32 wrote:
We also don't have data going further back.

Almost ten years worth of data is enough for me. It's not ideal. But there's more than enough information to show there is merit to the threshold.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Except R_C has sold it as exactly what you're saying not to do with it.

Quote:
I mean, you've pointed out players who outperformed their draft slots, but fail to mention all the players who haven't done anything with it.


Because they're not relevant to the point. I also didn't point out the players who didn't get the job done who met or passed the threshold. My point was that it's not a 100% accurate cut-off.

It's certainly worth noting. I just wouldn't treat it as an absolute exclusion.


When has Reality_Check ever been the level-headed one? It's part of the equation as is everything else.
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bkobow05 wrote:
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Well, you can dispute it. Mike Glennon, Tyrod Taylor, Dak Prescott, Brett Hundley, and A.J. McCarron all failed to meet it. All have outperformed their draft slot thus far.(well, Hundley is my own projection.

I don't care where they were drafted or what their expectations were. None of them have had sustained success at a high level. If a couple of them do down the road they'll be exceptions and that's fine. I'm well known for putting thresholds to the side specifically ones related to size when I like certain players. I'm not married to any of this stuff. I put it in perspective.

jrry32 wrote:
We also don't have data going further back.

Almost ten years worth of data is enough for me. It's not ideal. But there's more than enough information to show there is merit to the threshold.


We have 10 years of data. Tyrod Taylor has become a solid starting QB. Dak Prescott just had one of the best rookie seasons of all time. We'll see what Mike Glennon does as a starter in Chicago.

What's the utility of it? How many elite/great QBs are included in those 10 years of data? How many busts has it found? How many successful QBs has it missed?

Realistically, when you look at it, 10 years of data simply isn't enough. There aren't enough high-level QBs who fell below the threshold. It's like saying that QBs who are shorter than 6'1" don't succeed. That's generally true, but is it really significant?

CWood21 wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Except R_C has sold it as exactly what you're saying not to do with it.

Quote:
I mean, you've pointed out players who outperformed their draft slots, but fail to mention all the players who haven't done anything with it.


Because they're not relevant to the point. I also didn't point out the players who didn't get the job done who met or passed the threshold. My point was that it's not a 100% accurate cut-off.

It's certainly worth noting. I just wouldn't treat it as an absolute exclusion.


When has Reality_Check ever been the level-headed one? It's part of the equation as is everything else.


Fair point.
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TheRealMcCoy


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Well, you can dispute it. Mike Glennon, Tyrod Taylor, Dak Prescott, Brett Hundley, and A.J. McCarron all failed to meet it. All have outperformed their draft slot thus far.(well, Hundley is my own projection.

Dak and Tyrod threw with tweaked shoulders at the combine I believe.

Not sure if anything was wrong with Watson.
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
There aren't enough high-level QBs who fell below the threshold.

Darn it. If only more players showed the threshold to be inaccurate we could prove the validity of the threshold. Laughing
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
There aren't enough high-level QBs who fell below the threshold.

Darn it. If only more players showed the threshold to be inaccurate we could prove the validity of the threshold. Laughing


You're misunderstanding my point. There aren't enough high-level QB prospects who fell below the threshold.

I illustrated that quite nicely with the analogy to height. As far as I can tell, the threshold rooted out three first round busts over ten years. And those three busts were all controversial at best prospects. So...what is the threshold really doing for us?
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MWil23


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I remember back in the early 2000s in the QB challenge drills when Kurt Warner couldn't throw the ball 55 yards in the air and he wasn't bad. Laughing

Meanwhile, Jamarcus Russell could throw it 50 yards from one knee on a rope...and he was...well...Jamarcus Russell.

I think that it's a concern for Watson, but I don't know that it's a dealbreaker or even that big of a deal to be honest.
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