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Looking At Our Team Long Term For Cap Space
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TitanLegend


Joined: 18 Jun 2012
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:31 pm    Post subject: Looking At Our Team Long Term For Cap Space Reply with quote

It appears that Robinson is staying very strict in what he's offering free agents. While he's made attempts(apparently) at going after guys like Bouye, Williams, Hightower(still a possibility but unlikely if Paul Kuharsky is to be believed), he's not been willing to get in to a bidding war for them.

Instead, he's holding on to the majority of our money, and it seems that's for the better, because looking at the long term, there's potentially a lot of money we're going to have to spend on our own guys.

Marcus Mariota and Taylor Lewan are the two most obvious guys, so going over them first.

Mariota assuming he continues on his career trajectory will likely sign the biggest QB contract in NFL history when we do sign him. If it's not the biggest, it'll be close. As it sits now Luck, at 24.59 per year, is the highest paid QB in the NFL in terms of a per season deal. Cutler's total value is more but it was over more seasons.

With cap rising by 10+ million each year, when Mariota signs his new deal either next off-season season or the off-season after that, it'll probably be in the 26-28 range.

So on the low end, we'll stick at 26.

Taylor Lewan's pay day is going to be ridiculous. And if it were up to me, I'd just pay him now because after the way Okung just got paid, lord only knows what we'll have to pay Lewan if we wait til next off-season. Lewan will almost certainly become the highest paid LT in the NFL on a per year basis, placing him above Okung who is making 13.25(the highest currently). Lewan at this point will be getting at least 14 per at the rate things are going.

We're at a combined 40m in those two alone(per season).

After those two, we have a few other guys we have to worry about paying.

Jurrell Casey is a free agent after the 2018 season, and will only be 29 then, so he still has another big pay day ahead of him. The baseline for his deal would probably be somewhere around what Cameron Jordan makes(10.4 per, Casey is currently at 9 per). Might increase some based on the cap rising, so looking at an 11 per year average is probably reasonable for Casey.

We're at 51m now.

Quinton Spain is entering the last year of his rookie deal. Spain has gotten better over the course of the last two seasons, developing in to a rock solid left guard, with the potential to get even better considering his rate of improvement thus far(when I say he got better over the course of seasons, I mean that quite literally for last season. His last 5 or 6 games last season were the best he's played in his career to date).

He's not going to command Zietler type money obviously, but getting a Warford/Duvernay-Tardif type of contract(roughly 8 per) is not out of the conversation. As it sits right now I'd judge his value at around that 7 to 8 range(this assuming his level of play continues), I'll stick to 7 to be on the low end, but that pushes us up to 58m.

Avery Williamson is also in the last year of his rookie deal, and he's a guy very well liked by our coaching staff and is a solid player overall despite his issue in coverage. He's likely in that 6 million a year range, maybe even more considering what AJ Klien just got from the Saints(5 per). The 6 would group him with guys like Poz in Jacksonville, Maualuga in Cinci and Johnson in KC among others. Which pushes up to 64m.

On top of this you look at guys like Kline and DaQuan Jones who, while not being locks to be long term guys here, are potential guys we re-sign. They wouldn't break the bank, but together they'd certainly push us over 70m.

So you're looking at 60-70m worth in guys that we'll be resigning in the next 2 years. And that's only 5 to 7 guys. I mean sure you could potentially try and replace a Spain or Williamson with someone else, but those feel unlikely, and there's certainly no chance that Lewan, Casey or Mariota are going anywhere at this point..

And of course not long after that you're looking at contracts for guys like Conklin, Henry and Byard assuming they continue to play well.

Point I'm making overall is while we're getting frustrated at times with the lack of spending in this FA period, it makes sense overall for the long term.

If we pulled a Jaguars and gave Bouye and Campbell both 12+ mil or whatever they're getting we'd be hurting ourselves long term. Jacksonville can afford it slightly more than we can because they don't have as many core young guys that they HAVE to re-sign soon.

We can't let Mariota, Lewan and Casey go. Spain and Williamson are both good players that'd be foolish to try and replace assuming they don't try breaking the bank.
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ttitansfan4life


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not to diminish his play at all, but Mariota should probably play a full season first before even thinking of a new contract.
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titans0021


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So what you're saying is...something short...I don't know...maybe a 1-year deal for an upgrade at receiver, would have been a smart investment since it has no long-term effect on the cap?
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TitanLegend


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ttitansfan4life wrote:
Not to diminish his play at all, but Mariota should probably play a full season first before even thinking of a new contract.


Ideally, obviously. And I think would be an even bigger issue if it was his MCL that had issues again..but he had a gigantic man fall on his leg and break it. It's not really something that screams "injury prone", just a freak accident, especially considering he stayed healthy(as healthy as football players generally are anyway) throughout the entire season.

As it sits right now, I highly doubt his health is much of an issue for the FO.
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TitanLegend


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

titans0021 wrote:
So what you're saying is...something short...I don't know...maybe a 1-year deal for an upgrade at receiver, would have been a smart investment since it has no long-term effect on the cap?


The team isn't very concerned about the receiver position. Mularkey's offense doesn't require it to be. Not looking for stop gaps there because it's not needed. If we can bring in someone long term at a decent price I think it'd get done, beyond that I wasn't expecting anything big at the WR position this FA period.

The Cooks development is surprising but Robinson has shown he's in no hurry to get him here and isn't willing to give what the Saints want for him, so it's clearly just a guy that we'd like to have, but don't have to have.
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ragevsuall17


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

titans0021 wrote:
So what you're saying is...something short...I don't know...maybe a 1-year deal for an upgrade at receiver, would have been a smart investment since it has no long-term effect on the cap?


Every move has a long-term effect on the cap... every move. It's no longer a spend it or lose it figure...
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-Hope-


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TitanLegend wrote:
titans0021 wrote:
So what you're saying is...something short...I don't know...maybe a 1-year deal for an upgrade at receiver, would have been a smart investment since it has no long-term effect on the cap?


The team isn't very concerned about the receiver position. Mularkey's offense doesn't require it to be.

you're telling me his matchup-based, let's-run-two-receivers-out-on-routes-and-hope-somebody-gets-open offense doesn't require top-flight receivers? i'd argue good receivers are way more important to the way this team works than a team like, say, the pats or saints.
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titans0021


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ragevsuall17 wrote:
titans0021 wrote:
So what you're saying is...something short...I don't know...maybe a 1-year deal for an upgrade at receiver, would have been a smart investment since it has no long-term effect on the cap?


Every move has a long-term effect on the cap... every move. It's no longer a spend it or lose it figure...
This is a real question: How could a 1-year, $7 million deal have a long-term effect on the cap? Less carryover for the next season?
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TitanLegend


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

-Hope- wrote:
TitanLegend wrote:
titans0021 wrote:
So what you're saying is...something short...I don't know...maybe a 1-year deal for an upgrade at receiver, would have been a smart investment since it has no long-term effect on the cap?


The team isn't very concerned about the receiver position. Mularkey's offense doesn't require it to be.

you're telling me his matchup-based, let's-run-two-receivers-out-on-routes-and-hope-somebody-gets-open offense doesn't require top-flight receivers? i'd argue good receivers are way more important to the way this team works than a team like, say, the pats or saints.


The only requirement from the receivers in our offense is that they run good routes(and obviously that they catch the ball when it's thrown to them). Matthews does. Sharpe had issues but he's a rookie and he's learning.

Our offense doesn't require Jeffrey or Pryor or Marshall or Cooks or whoever. Would it be nice to have one of those? Sure. But it's not necessary.

Mariota just set franchise records throwing to these receivers, mind you. The offense, and the receivers we used in the offense worked. I'm sure if we don't somehow address it through the rest of FA, we'll probably bring in another starter in the draft, kinda have to just because we don't really have any depth left.

Bringing in a guy on a 1 year deal isn't a team first type of thing either. Oh, you wanna come use our offense and quarterback to raise your price even more next season? Nah, we're good. We've already proven we don't need it.
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titans0021


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
We've already proven we don't need it.

With what, a single 9-7 season? Laughing
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TitanLegend


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

titans0021 wrote:
Quote:
We've already proven we don't need it.

With what, a single 9-7 season? Laughing


No, with our QB who set almost every single season record we have on the books.
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ragevsuall17


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

titans0021 wrote:
ragevsuall17 wrote:
titans0021 wrote:
So what you're saying is...something short...I don't know...maybe a 1-year deal for an upgrade at receiver, would have been a smart investment since it has no long-term effect on the cap?


Every move has a long-term effect on the cap... every move. It's no longer a spend it or lose it figure...
This is a real question: How could a 1-year, $7 million deal have a long-term effect on the cap? Less carryover for the next season?


100%

I'm assuming you're talking about Pryor, right? What makes you think he would take less money in TN?

I think he realized that the market wasn't there for him. Maybe it's the one year of productivity (although that didn't affect Bouye's market)... maybe the character concerns are more legit than some of you realize... maybe it's a combination of those things.

Either way, Pryor obviously wants that pay day... can't blame him (I'll blame him for everything else, but not for wanting to get paid). To him, Washington gives him the best chance to have that monster season that he thinks will shift the market to where he thinks it should. And if that's the case, then he was probably willing to take less to play there 1 year, than a little more in a place like TN, where his production would be less significant... take 2M less this season, and hopefully parlay that into 4M more per season next year.
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titans0021


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TitanLegend wrote:
titans0021 wrote:
Quote:
We've already proven we don't need it.

With what, a single 9-7 season? Laughing


No, with our QB who set almost every single season record we have on the books.
Franchise records are meaningless when you're talking about a team that has spent the most pass-friendly two decades in league history either being a run-first team or having terrible quarterback play.

I love Marcus, but 3,500 yards and 26 touchdowns are pretty much league-average at this point. The fact that those are franchise record numbers speaks far more on the coaching, offenses and quarterbacks we've had in recent years than they do about our lack of a need for a No. 1 receiver.
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TitanLegend


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

titans0021 wrote:
TitanLegend wrote:
titans0021 wrote:
Quote:
We've already proven we don't need it.

With what, a single 9-7 season? Laughing


No, with our QB who set almost every single season record we have on the books.
Franchise records are meaningless when you're talking about a team that has spent the most pass-friendly two decades in league history either being a run-first team or having terrible quarterback play.

I love Marcus, but 3,500 yards and 26 touchdowns are pretty much league-average at this point. The fact that those are franchise record numbers speaks far more on the coaching, offenses and quarterbacks we've had in recent years than they do about our lack of a need for a No. 1 receiver.


Which is why it's a failure to use bulk numbers(I say as I used bulk numbers in regards to record books Laughing ) (considering we threw it like the 2nd least amount of times in the NFL). In the 3 stats that matter, Mariota was 9th in yards per attempt, 4th in the NFL in TD%, and finished with an interception % of 2.00(and I would tell you where that ranks but I'm having issues finding a ranking list that doesn't look like a mess and includes guys who only threw like 4 passes), which is the same as Kirk Cousins and better than Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger, among others.

Our passing offense isn't an issue.
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TitanSlim


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we're relying on last season success in the passing game for future success, then I think we're setting up ourselves to fail.

Even with Mariota's success, I don't know how you could watch our WRs and feel we don't need more talent there.
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