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rampantjet


Joined: 25 Apr 2012
Posts: 3745
PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After watching Reddicks pass rushing drills at the senior bowl and seeing his times, man if we trade back he could be really really nice as an OLBer for us. He also has crazy hips for dropping back in coverage.
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barnaby8787


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rampantjet wrote:
After watching Reddicks pass rushing drills at the senior bowl and seeing his times, man if we trade back he could be really really nice as an OLBer for us. He also has crazy hips for dropping back in coverage.
Depends on how far we drop back. He's not a top 15 player in this draft.
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rampantjet


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was thinking the 20 range, but he is going to be moving up. Everyone does after a day like he just had.
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thebeyonder


Joined: 30 Dec 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
rickyt31 wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
Random question guys, if you HAD to take a QB at 6 and all three were available, who's your guy?



For me, I'm split on Watson & Mitch. I see more potential from Mitch. His tape doesn't show me anything that makes me believe he wouldn't make it as a starter. But Watson is carrying the same type of spark Cam Newton carried at Auburn. I'm looking for leadership skills in losing games to divide the two. I need to see a game where Mitch took a lot of hits and see how he bounced back.
That's where i'm at. To me, I see Ryan Tannehill in Mitch. Reminds me of a guy that's going to be a fringe top 15, MAYBE top 10 QB. I don't know what I see it Deshaun to be honest. Some have said McNabb, some had said Alex Smith. He throws way too many picks for my liking, but the guy is a big game QB that wins. I think i'd rather have Deshaun, but there's no clear cut one here. Either way, I don't want Deshone. The guy has upside which I get, but he's much riskier IMO.


I like Mitchell but don't like Tannehill. I don't remember Tannehill coming out but in my opinion, today's Tannehill isn't a good QB. He has pocket presence issues, misses reads, checks down too much to avoid mistakes, and is made to look better than by his line/receivers than is actually the case. Tannehill isn't a top 10 QB now (nor has he ever been). And for his playing style now, I don't see these Tannehill tendencies in North Carolina QB.

Relative to Tannehill, Trubisky has great qualities. He has good enough pocket presence, sees the field, can successfully use his legs to make time and makes good decisions without checking down too much. I like him more on tape than Watson but the Clemson QB does have a better pedigree. His feet seem faster and was holding back some of his ability last season because he didn't want to seem like a running QB.

Gun to my head I guess I choose Trubisky because he's more of a competent pocket passer when it comes to what matters. Watson has more "potential" though. He can be like a Russell Wilson.
Personally, I don't see as many issues with Tannehill's game. He is a bit of a headcase and Trubisky (to the best of our knowledge) isn't. A similar build, experience coming out, athleticism, and arm talent is what I see personally. The Watson/Wilson comp is interesting.


Tannehill is a headcase? How so? He seems to well-adjusted to me. Just overrated. To supplement my low opinion of Tannehill, I'll cite his 3rd down conversation rate. On 3 and 4+ (exluding 4th 10), Tannehill was 30% in terms of converting 3rd downs.

For comparison, I'm going to use random active backups having started full or near full seasons:

2010 Kansas City starter Matt Cassell's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 41%

2015 Houston starter Brian Hoyer's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 36%

2016 Matt Barkley conversation rate on 3rd and 4+: 47%

So as you can see, stats support my analysis of Tannehill's underwhelming game. Tannehill depends on his running game to get him into manageable positions and then he takes calculated risks to his outside receivers. If this doesn't work, he fails flat because he can't move the chains on his own. Teams that win Superbowls have QBs that can do both: take calculated risks AND make the difficult 3rd down throws at a higher than 40% clip. All of Brady, Ryan, Rivers, even some backups do it. Tannehill doesn't and never will.

Trubisky, I think, can make the tough throws under pressure But then I never saw Tannehill play on the way out..was he a pocket passer?
The whole training camp debacle in 2015. And I'm not saying Tannehill is by any means a good QB, but he's still better than a lot of QB's in the league.


Outside Dolphin fans, I can't point to anything or anyone who thinks Tannehill is really better than a alot of QBs in the league. He is a starter but has plenty of flaws. PFF ranked ranks Tannehill the 18th best QB in the league. Meanwhile ESPN's QBR QB ranks him 24. Perhaps most poignantly, the GMs and personnel people around the league who ranked him last year also put him at 24th best QB. So Tannehill before last season was considered a bottom 10 QB according to most GMs, personnel guys, etc in the league. Maybe the needle has moved on censensus about how bad Tannehill is, but I don't think so:

"I really want to move him up, but I just think Tannehill is a one-level thrower," an offensive coordinator said. "He can't arc and pace the ball. Adam will hide his deficiencies. Tannehill would get exposed other places. They will throw short, underneath stuff -- catch-and-carry plays. But if Tannehill went and played in vertical offense, it would be a train wreck."


The bolded is basically what I think of Tannehill. He's a bottom 10 QB according to most publications.
I'm not selling the guy as a good QB, but he's an above average QB IMO. I think a lot would agree as well. His passer rating over the past 3 seasons puts him at a 91.6. Typically, a QB with a 91/92 passer rating is falling above league average. Over that span, he's thrown 70 TD's to 36 INT's. For comparison, Flacco has thrown 60 TD's to 34 INT's (and less yards), Carson Palmer has thrown 78 TD's to 43 INT's (also less yards than Ryan), Andy Dalton has 80 TD's, 49 INT's (and less yards), etc. I can list A LOT more. He prob has a top 12 or so QB/INT ratio or so over the past three years. Also, he's averaged 249 yards per game over his past three years. Also, above league average. Obviously, his advanced stats aren't the best as you point out, but his core stats so to speak, are typically above league average.


So you're just going to ignore the fact NFL GMs and scouts put him at the 24th best QB at the end of 2015---and say a lot of people like him? Even PFF last month only has Tannehill at 18th best QB after his latest season, which still makes him a below average QB. You argue Tannehill's high passer rating but I counter that any decent QB could average 90+ QB rating with the type of weapons Miami put around Tannehill. Let's recap, in 2014 Tannehill had:

David Cameron - top 10 TE)
Mike Wallace - game-breaking WR)
Kenny Stills - PFF rated him as best deep threat receiver before he went to Miami, so another game-breaking speedster WR
Rishard Matthews - In Miami PFF rated him as the only WR with a very high playing time that logged a high catch rate AND a high yard per reception number. Moreover, with Mariota targeting him in Tenn's offense, PFF says Matthews is now a top deep receiving target now too. So again, Tannehill had a very good WR talent here.
Charles Clay - top 10 TE
RB Miller - very good RB

So Tannehill's getting a 90+ rating in 2014 was something any QB could have achieved with the same weapons. He was elevated by his surroundings but Tannehill is still a below average QB, everything considered. Now as for 2016 Tannehill's latest season where he got a 90+ QB rating, he was give similar help and was actually outplayed by his own backup: Matt Moore. Moore put up a 105 rating. Over more games that rating would decline but it would still be 90+, Moore played some good defenses and got registered 3/4 90+ ratings (one of them was 100+). So going back to what I implied, Tannehill's passer rating is an empty rate stat that has more to his weapons, line, etc than Tannehill's actual play. Matt Moore's better passer rating in Miami is additional proof of this.

TD-INT ratio is another rate stat. Tannehill's rate stat on that account comes from his weapons and environment, same as Fitz in 2015. Both QBs are below average to bottom 10 regardless, which is where most people who study them rank them.
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barnaby8787


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rampantjet wrote:
I was thinking the 20 range, but he is going to be moving up. Everyone does after a day like he just had.
Yeah, I agree. I think if we move down that far, it could make sense. I think he was a fringe 1st round guy yesterday. I think he'll likely go between 20-25 now, but we'll see.
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rampantjet


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think David Cameron was the prime minister of the UK. ^^
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thebeyonder


Joined: 30 Dec 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rampantjet wrote:
I think David Cameron was the prime minister of the UK. ^^


Oops I meant Jordan Cameron. But to be fair David Cameron is not the prime minister of UK anymore. The UK new's Prime Minister is Theresa May Laughing
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rampantjet


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebeyonder wrote:
rampantjet wrote:
I think David Cameron was the prime minister of the UK. ^^


Oops I meant Jordan Cameron. But to be fair David Cameron is not the prime minister of UK anymore. The UK new's Prime Minister is Theresa May Laughing


Hence the word WAS lol
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barnaby8787


Joined: 01 Jan 2006
Posts: 10729
Location: Manhattan, NY
PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
rickyt31 wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
Random question guys, if you HAD to take a QB at 6 and all three were available, who's your guy?



For me, I'm split on Watson & Mitch. I see more potential from Mitch. His tape doesn't show me anything that makes me believe he wouldn't make it as a starter. But Watson is carrying the same type of spark Cam Newton carried at Auburn. I'm looking for leadership skills in losing games to divide the two. I need to see a game where Mitch took a lot of hits and see how he bounced back.
That's where i'm at. To me, I see Ryan Tannehill in Mitch. Reminds me of a guy that's going to be a fringe top 15, MAYBE top 10 QB. I don't know what I see it Deshaun to be honest. Some have said McNabb, some had said Alex Smith. He throws way too many picks for my liking, but the guy is a big game QB that wins. I think i'd rather have Deshaun, but there's no clear cut one here. Either way, I don't want Deshone. The guy has upside which I get, but he's much riskier IMO.


I like Mitchell but don't like Tannehill. I don't remember Tannehill coming out but in my opinion, today's Tannehill isn't a good QB. He has pocket presence issues, misses reads, checks down too much to avoid mistakes, and is made to look better than by his line/receivers than is actually the case. Tannehill isn't a top 10 QB now (nor has he ever been). And for his playing style now, I don't see these Tannehill tendencies in North Carolina QB.

Relative to Tannehill, Trubisky has great qualities. He has good enough pocket presence, sees the field, can successfully use his legs to make time and makes good decisions without checking down too much. I like him more on tape than Watson but the Clemson QB does have a better pedigree. His feet seem faster and was holding back some of his ability last season because he didn't want to seem like a running QB.

Gun to my head I guess I choose Trubisky because he's more of a competent pocket passer when it comes to what matters. Watson has more "potential" though. He can be like a Russell Wilson.
Personally, I don't see as many issues with Tannehill's game. He is a bit of a headcase and Trubisky (to the best of our knowledge) isn't. A similar build, experience coming out, athleticism, and arm talent is what I see personally. The Watson/Wilson comp is interesting.


Tannehill is a headcase? How so? He seems to well-adjusted to me. Just overrated. To supplement my low opinion of Tannehill, I'll cite his 3rd down conversation rate. On 3 and 4+ (exluding 4th 10), Tannehill was 30% in terms of converting 3rd downs.

For comparison, I'm going to use random active backups having started full or near full seasons:

2010 Kansas City starter Matt Cassell's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 41%

2015 Houston starter Brian Hoyer's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 36%

2016 Matt Barkley conversation rate on 3rd and 4+: 47%

So as you can see, stats support my analysis of Tannehill's underwhelming game. Tannehill depends on his running game to get him into manageable positions and then he takes calculated risks to his outside receivers. If this doesn't work, he fails flat because he can't move the chains on his own. Teams that win Superbowls have QBs that can do both: take calculated risks AND make the difficult 3rd down throws at a higher than 40% clip. All of Brady, Ryan, Rivers, even some backups do it. Tannehill doesn't and never will.

Trubisky, I think, can make the tough throws under pressure But then I never saw Tannehill play on the way out..was he a pocket passer?
The whole training camp debacle in 2015. And I'm not saying Tannehill is by any means a good QB, but he's still better than a lot of QB's in the league.


Outside Dolphin fans, I can't point to anything or anyone who thinks Tannehill is really better than a alot of QBs in the league. He is a starter but has plenty of flaws. PFF ranked ranks Tannehill the 18th best QB in the league. Meanwhile ESPN's QBR QB ranks him 24. Perhaps most poignantly, the GMs and personnel people around the league who ranked him last year also put him at 24th best QB. So Tannehill before last season was considered a bottom 10 QB according to most GMs, personnel guys, etc in the league. Maybe the needle has moved on censensus about how bad Tannehill is, but I don't think so:

"I really want to move him up, but I just think Tannehill is a one-level thrower," an offensive coordinator said. "He can't arc and pace the ball. Adam will hide his deficiencies. Tannehill would get exposed other places. They will throw short, underneath stuff -- catch-and-carry plays. But if Tannehill went and played in vertical offense, it would be a train wreck."


The bolded is basically what I think of Tannehill. He's a bottom 10 QB according to most publications.
I'm not selling the guy as a good QB, but he's an above average QB IMO. I think a lot would agree as well. His passer rating over the past 3 seasons puts him at a 91.6. Typically, a QB with a 91/92 passer rating is falling above league average. Over that span, he's thrown 70 TD's to 36 INT's. For comparison, Flacco has thrown 60 TD's to 34 INT's (and less yards), Carson Palmer has thrown 78 TD's to 43 INT's (also less yards than Ryan), Andy Dalton has 80 TD's, 49 INT's (and less yards), etc. I can list A LOT more. He prob has a top 12 or so QB/INT ratio or so over the past three years. Also, he's averaged 249 yards per game over his past three years. Also, above league average. Obviously, his advanced stats aren't the best as you point out, but his core stats so to speak, are typically above league average.


So you're just going to ignore the fact NFL GMs and scouts put him at the 24th best QB at the end of 2015---and say a lot of people like him? Even PFF last month only has Tannehill at 18th best QB after his latest season, which still makes him a below average QB. You argue Tannehill's high passer rating but I counter that any decent QB could average 90+ QB rating with the type of weapons Miami put around Tannehill. Let's recap, in 2014 Tannehill had:

David Cameron - top 10 TE)
Mike Wallace - game-breaking WR)
Kenny Stills - PFF rated him as best deep threat receiver before he went to Miami, so another game-breaking speedster WR
Rishard Matthews - In Miami PFF rated him as the only WR with a very high playing time that logged a high catch rate AND a high yard per reception number. Moreover, with Mariota targeting him in Tenn's offense, PFF says Matthews is now a top deep receiving target now too. So again, Tannehill had a very good WR talent here.
Charles Clay - top 10 TE
RB Miller - very good RB

So Tannehill's getting a 90+ rating in 2014 was something any QB could have achieved with the same weapons. He was elevated by his surroundings but Tannehill is still a below average QB, everything considered. Now as for 2016 Tannehill's latest season where he got a 90+ QB rating, he was give similar help and was actually outplayed by his own backup: Matt Moore. Moore put up a 105 rating. Over more games that rating would decline but it would still be 90+, Moore played some good defenses and got registered 3/4 90+ ratings (one of them was 100+). So going back to what I implied, Tannehill's passer rating is an empty rate stat that has more to his weapons, line, etc than Tannehill's actual play. Matt Moore's better passer rating in Miami is additional proof of this.

TD-INT ratio is another rate stat. Tannehill's rate stat on that account comes from his weapons and environment, same as Fitz in 2015. Both QBs are below average to bottom 10 regardless, which is where most people who study them rank them.
He had a solid 2016 season and yes, I am ignoring that. The stats don't lie and he's not one of the more well-liked QB's in the league. Also, Jordan Cameron was NOT a top 10 TE for starters, Mike Wallace was trending down as a receiver, and also Clay was not a top 10 TE prior to Tannehill. Cameron was coming off a really down year in Cleveland. Clay? He did NOTHING in this league over his first two years. Tannehill made the guy look good. Also, TD-INT is another rate stat? That's BS. Look at the majority of the elite QB's in the league. They have very high TD:INT ratio's. How many good QB's in this league don't have a TD/INT ratio higher than 2? Also, as an edit, you're hyping up Matthews who couldn't crack the receiving core, Kenny Stills was still a Saint, and Lamar was the backup RB. Moreno started.
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rampantjet


Joined: 25 Apr 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dalvin Cook in the 9th percentile on the SPARQ score. That is horrible. The only event that he performed well on was the 40. His agility drills were pretty terrible.

He had the 2nd worst cone drill, out of the RB's. The guy behind him was a FB who ran a 4.9. One of the worst 20 yard shuttles, only 2 guys with worse, and they aren't remotely good guys. He only beat 2 TE's in the cone drill lol.

For a smaller guy without much power in the hole you need more than straight line speed to succeed in the NFL.
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Rich51


Joined: 16 Jan 2012
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Location: WPB Fl via Jc NJ
PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

barnaby8787 wrote:
rampantjet wrote:
I was thinking the 20 range, but he is going to be moving up. Everyone does after a day like he just had.
Yeah, I agree. I think if we move down that far, it could make sense. I think he was a fringe 1st round guy yesterday. I think he'll likely go between 20-25 now, but we'll see.


I think someone will take him over Foster in the top 15. Earlier today I heard that GMs are wondering if he, Foster, has problems with a medical examiner how will he react to a coach yelling at him.
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rampantjet


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rich51 wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
rampantjet wrote:
I was thinking the 20 range, but he is going to be moving up. Everyone does after a day like he just had.
Yeah, I agree. I think if we move down that far, it could make sense. I think he was a fringe 1st round guy yesterday. I think he'll likely go between 20-25 now, but we'll see.


I think someone will take him over Foster in the top 15. Earlier today I heard that GMs are wondering if he, Foster, has problems with a medical examiner how will he react to a coach yelling at him.


Pretty sure Nick Saban yells at everyone, never heard anything about them fighting.
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thebeyonder


Joined: 30 Dec 2012
Posts: 790
PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
rickyt31 wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
Random question guys, if you HAD to take a QB at 6 and all three were available, who's your guy?



For me, I'm split on Watson & Mitch. I see more potential from Mitch. His tape doesn't show me anything that makes me believe he wouldn't make it as a starter. But Watson is carrying the same type of spark Cam Newton carried at Auburn. I'm looking for leadership skills in losing games to divide the two. I need to see a game where Mitch took a lot of hits and see how he bounced back.
That's where i'm at. To me, I see Ryan Tannehill in Mitch. Reminds me of a guy that's going to be a fringe top 15, MAYBE top 10 QB. I don't know what I see it Deshaun to be honest. Some have said McNabb, some had said Alex Smith. He throws way too many picks for my liking, but the guy is a big game QB that wins. I think i'd rather have Deshaun, but there's no clear cut one here. Either way, I don't want Deshone. The guy has upside which I get, but he's much riskier IMO.


I like Mitchell but don't like Tannehill. I don't remember Tannehill coming out but in my opinion, today's Tannehill isn't a good QB. He has pocket presence issues, misses reads, checks down too much to avoid mistakes, and is made to look better than by his line/receivers than is actually the case. Tannehill isn't a top 10 QB now (nor has he ever been). And for his playing style now, I don't see these Tannehill tendencies in North Carolina QB.

Relative to Tannehill, Trubisky has great qualities. He has good enough pocket presence, sees the field, can successfully use his legs to make time and makes good decisions without checking down too much. I like him more on tape than Watson but the Clemson QB does have a better pedigree. His feet seem faster and was holding back some of his ability last season because he didn't want to seem like a running QB.

Gun to my head I guess I choose Trubisky because he's more of a competent pocket passer when it comes to what matters. Watson has more "potential" though. He can be like a Russell Wilson.
Personally, I don't see as many issues with Tannehill's game. He is a bit of a headcase and Trubisky (to the best of our knowledge) isn't. A similar build, experience coming out, athleticism, and arm talent is what I see personally. The Watson/Wilson comp is interesting.


Tannehill is a headcase? How so? He seems to well-adjusted to me. Just overrated. To supplement my low opinion of Tannehill, I'll cite his 3rd down conversation rate. On 3 and 4+ (exluding 4th 10), Tannehill was 30% in terms of converting 3rd downs.

For comparison, I'm going to use random active backups having started full or near full seasons:

2010 Kansas City starter Matt Cassell's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 41%

2015 Houston starter Brian Hoyer's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 36%

2016 Matt Barkley conversation rate on 3rd and 4+: 47%

So as you can see, stats support my analysis of Tannehill's underwhelming game. Tannehill depends on his running game to get him into manageable positions and then he takes calculated risks to his outside receivers. If this doesn't work, he fails flat because he can't move the chains on his own. Teams that win Superbowls have QBs that can do both: take calculated risks AND make the difficult 3rd down throws at a higher than 40% clip. All of Brady, Ryan, Rivers, even some backups do it. Tannehill doesn't and never will.

Trubisky, I think, can make the tough throws under pressure But then I never saw Tannehill play on the way out..was he a pocket passer?
The whole training camp debacle in 2015. And I'm not saying Tannehill is by any means a good QB, but he's still better than a lot of QB's in the league.


Outside Dolphin fans, I can't point to anything or anyone who thinks Tannehill is really better than a alot of QBs in the league. He is a starter but has plenty of flaws. PFF ranked ranks Tannehill the 18th best QB in the league. Meanwhile ESPN's QBR QB ranks him 24. Perhaps most poignantly, the GMs and personnel people around the league who ranked him last year also put him at 24th best QB. So Tannehill before last season was considered a bottom 10 QB according to most GMs, personnel guys, etc in the league. Maybe the needle has moved on censensus about how bad Tannehill is, but I don't think so:

"I really want to move him up, but I just think Tannehill is a one-level thrower," an offensive coordinator said. "He can't arc and pace the ball. Adam will hide his deficiencies. Tannehill would get exposed other places. They will throw short, underneath stuff -- catch-and-carry plays. But if Tannehill went and played in vertical offense, it would be a train wreck."


The bolded is basically what I think of Tannehill. He's a bottom 10 QB according to most publications.
I'm not selling the guy as a good QB, but he's an above average QB IMO. I think a lot would agree as well. His passer rating over the past 3 seasons puts him at a 91.6. Typically, a QB with a 91/92 passer rating is falling above league average. Over that span, he's thrown 70 TD's to 36 INT's. For comparison, Flacco has thrown 60 TD's to 34 INT's (and less yards), Carson Palmer has thrown 78 TD's to 43 INT's (also less yards than Ryan), Andy Dalton has 80 TD's, 49 INT's (and less yards), etc. I can list A LOT more. He prob has a top 12 or so QB/INT ratio or so over the past three years. Also, he's averaged 249 yards per game over his past three years. Also, above league average. Obviously, his advanced stats aren't the best as you point out, but his core stats so to speak, are typically above league average.


So you're just going to ignore the fact NFL GMs and scouts put him at the 24th best QB at the end of 2015---and say a lot of people like him? Even PFF last month only has Tannehill at 18th best QB after his latest season, which still makes him a below average QB. You argue Tannehill's high passer rating but I counter that any decent QB could average 90+ QB rating with the type of weapons Miami put around Tannehill. Let's recap, in 2014 Tannehill had:

David Cameron - top 10 TE)
Mike Wallace - game-breaking WR)
Kenny Stills - PFF rated him as best deep threat receiver before he went to Miami, so another game-breaking speedster WR
Rishard Matthews - In Miami PFF rated him as the only WR with a very high playing time that logged a high catch rate AND a high yard per reception number. Moreover, with Mariota targeting him in Tenn's offense, PFF says Matthews is now a top deep receiving target now too. So again, Tannehill had a very good WR talent here.
Charles Clay - top 10 TE
RB Miller - very good RB

So Tannehill's getting a 90+ rating in 2014 was something any QB could have achieved with the same weapons. He was elevated by his surroundings but Tannehill is still a below average QB, everything considered. Now as for 2016 Tannehill's latest season where he got a 90+ QB rating, he was give similar help and was actually outplayed by his own backup: Matt Moore. Moore put up a 105 rating. Over more games that rating would decline but it would still be 90+, Moore played some good defenses and got registered 3/4 90+ ratings (one of them was 100+). So going back to what I implied, Tannehill's passer rating is an empty rate stat that has more to his weapons, line, etc than Tannehill's actual play. Matt Moore's better passer rating in Miami is additional proof of this.

TD-INT ratio is another rate stat. Tannehill's rate stat on that account comes from his weapons and environment, same as Fitz in 2015. Both QBs are below average to bottom 10 regardless, which is where most people who study them rank them.
He had a solid 2016 season and yes, I am ignoring that. The stats don't lie and he's not one of the more well-liked QB's in the league. Also, Jordan Cameron was NOT a top 10 TE for starters, Mike Wallace was trending down as a receiver, and also Clay was not a top 10 TE prior to Tannehill. Cameron was coming off a really down year in Cleveland. Clay? He did NOTHING in this league over his first two years. Tannehill made the guy look good. Also, TD-INT is another rate stat? That's BS. Look at the majority of the elite QB's in the league. They have very high TD:INT ratio's. How many good QB's in this league don't have a TD/INT ratio higher than 2? Also, as an edit, you're hyping up Matthews who couldn't crack the receiving core, Kenny Stills was still a Saint, and Lamar was the backup RB. Moreno started.


Who cares abut his TD/INT ratio? Matt Moore put up a better QB rating than Tannehill. I think Moore has about the same or better TD-INT ratio as Tannehill last season. So Tannehill's TD-INT ratio is a rate stat that comes from having so many weapons, a great line, etc. Tannehill's real ability is in the fact he can't convert 3rd downs. And also in the fact his backup may be better than him.

Moving on, Clay was very good from 2013 onwards (don't know why you're including his rookie years as though TEs don't take time to develop), and very good in 2014, Tannehill's first 90+ QB rating year. Clay has since become a great TE in Buffalo. He would be even better if Taylor could throw over the middle. Cameron now is a top 10 FLEX TE, he just has no QB. Cameron runs down the seam and deep, but his QBs suck (i.e. Hoyer after teams made him throw outside, Tannehill, etc) so nothing comes from it. Matthews, as I said earlier, put up ridiculous efficiency numbers in Miami and has done even better in Tenn. So he was always a good receiver; the problem was Tannehill. The same issue with Mike Wallace. Wallace had his best season this past year in Baltimore after 2 years in Miami? Why? Because Tannehill sucks. Wallace put up 1000+ yards/14.1 yards per reception in 2016 Baltimore against 862 yards/12.1 yards in 2014 Miami because Flacco is better than Tannehill, even when Flacco doesn't play well. If Wallace was given Big Ben, he would go back to 15+ yards per reception and incredible efficiency.

Summarily then, the problem in Miami for Wallace and Rishard Matthews (and likely Cameron) is...Ryan Tannehill. That's why many people--including GMs--rank Tannehill as a bottom to below average QB. His backup is almost as good or better than him. His empty stats mean nothing. We'll see what he does when Kenny Stills (I make a mistake in saying Stills played in 2014, he didn't but Wallace did, same guy imho) leaves. Back to dink and dunk inefficiency no doubt. Maybe his line will give him 3 days to make a decision like they did last year..who knows..but Tannehill sucks.
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Rich51


Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Posts: 2809
Location: WPB Fl via Jc NJ
PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rampantjet wrote:
Rich51 wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
rampantjet wrote:
I was thinking the 20 range, but he is going to be moving up. Everyone does after a day like he just had.
Yeah, I agree. I think if we move down that far, it could make sense. I think he was a fringe 1st round guy yesterday. I think he'll likely go between 20-25 now, but we'll see.


I think someone will take him over Foster in the top 15. Earlier today I heard that GMs are wondering if he, Foster, has problems with a medical examiner how will he react to a coach yelling at him.


Pretty sure Nick Saban yells at everyone, never heard anything about them fighting.


Doesn't matter, if GMs (and I don't know how many) were putting a red flag on his behavior it could affect his draft status. Reddick could be the guy that benefits.

Just came back from seeing Logan so I haven't watched the drills yet, but Jordan Willis numbers make it look like he's going to be a great pass rusher. The best 10 yard split at 1.54, a 39" height jump and 10'5"" broad are great explosive numbers
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barnaby8787


Joined: 01 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
thebeyonder wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
rickyt31 wrote:
barnaby8787 wrote:
Random question guys, if you HAD to take a QB at 6 and all three were available, who's your guy?



For me, I'm split on Watson & Mitch. I see more potential from Mitch. His tape doesn't show me anything that makes me believe he wouldn't make it as a starter. But Watson is carrying the same type of spark Cam Newton carried at Auburn. I'm looking for leadership skills in losing games to divide the two. I need to see a game where Mitch took a lot of hits and see how he bounced back.
That's where i'm at. To me, I see Ryan Tannehill in Mitch. Reminds me of a guy that's going to be a fringe top 15, MAYBE top 10 QB. I don't know what I see it Deshaun to be honest. Some have said McNabb, some had said Alex Smith. He throws way too many picks for my liking, but the guy is a big game QB that wins. I think i'd rather have Deshaun, but there's no clear cut one here. Either way, I don't want Deshone. The guy has upside which I get, but he's much riskier IMO.


I like Mitchell but don't like Tannehill. I don't remember Tannehill coming out but in my opinion, today's Tannehill isn't a good QB. He has pocket presence issues, misses reads, checks down too much to avoid mistakes, and is made to look better than by his line/receivers than is actually the case. Tannehill isn't a top 10 QB now (nor has he ever been). And for his playing style now, I don't see these Tannehill tendencies in North Carolina QB.

Relative to Tannehill, Trubisky has great qualities. He has good enough pocket presence, sees the field, can successfully use his legs to make time and makes good decisions without checking down too much. I like him more on tape than Watson but the Clemson QB does have a better pedigree. His feet seem faster and was holding back some of his ability last season because he didn't want to seem like a running QB.

Gun to my head I guess I choose Trubisky because he's more of a competent pocket passer when it comes to what matters. Watson has more "potential" though. He can be like a Russell Wilson.
Personally, I don't see as many issues with Tannehill's game. He is a bit of a headcase and Trubisky (to the best of our knowledge) isn't. A similar build, experience coming out, athleticism, and arm talent is what I see personally. The Watson/Wilson comp is interesting.


Tannehill is a headcase? How so? He seems to well-adjusted to me. Just overrated. To supplement my low opinion of Tannehill, I'll cite his 3rd down conversation rate. On 3 and 4+ (exluding 4th 10), Tannehill was 30% in terms of converting 3rd downs.

For comparison, I'm going to use random active backups having started full or near full seasons:

2010 Kansas City starter Matt Cassell's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 41%

2015 Houston starter Brian Hoyer's 3rd and 4+ conversation rate: 36%

2016 Matt Barkley conversation rate on 3rd and 4+: 47%

So as you can see, stats support my analysis of Tannehill's underwhelming game. Tannehill depends on his running game to get him into manageable positions and then he takes calculated risks to his outside receivers. If this doesn't work, he fails flat because he can't move the chains on his own. Teams that win Superbowls have QBs that can do both: take calculated risks AND make the difficult 3rd down throws at a higher than 40% clip. All of Brady, Ryan, Rivers, even some backups do it. Tannehill doesn't and never will.

Trubisky, I think, can make the tough throws under pressure But then I never saw Tannehill play on the way out..was he a pocket passer?
The whole training camp debacle in 2015. And I'm not saying Tannehill is by any means a good QB, but he's still better than a lot of QB's in the league.


Outside Dolphin fans, I can't point to anything or anyone who thinks Tannehill is really better than a alot of QBs in the league. He is a starter but has plenty of flaws. PFF ranked ranks Tannehill the 18th best QB in the league. Meanwhile ESPN's QBR QB ranks him 24. Perhaps most poignantly, the GMs and personnel people around the league who ranked him last year also put him at 24th best QB. So Tannehill before last season was considered a bottom 10 QB according to most GMs, personnel guys, etc in the league. Maybe the needle has moved on censensus about how bad Tannehill is, but I don't think so:

"I really want to move him up, but I just think Tannehill is a one-level thrower," an offensive coordinator said. "He can't arc and pace the ball. Adam will hide his deficiencies. Tannehill would get exposed other places. They will throw short, underneath stuff -- catch-and-carry plays. But if Tannehill went and played in vertical offense, it would be a train wreck."


The bolded is basically what I think of Tannehill. He's a bottom 10 QB according to most publications.
I'm not selling the guy as a good QB, but he's an above average QB IMO. I think a lot would agree as well. His passer rating over the past 3 seasons puts him at a 91.6. Typically, a QB with a 91/92 passer rating is falling above league average. Over that span, he's thrown 70 TD's to 36 INT's. For comparison, Flacco has thrown 60 TD's to 34 INT's (and less yards), Carson Palmer has thrown 78 TD's to 43 INT's (also less yards than Ryan), Andy Dalton has 80 TD's, 49 INT's (and less yards), etc. I can list A LOT more. He prob has a top 12 or so QB/INT ratio or so over the past three years. Also, he's averaged 249 yards per game over his past three years. Also, above league average. Obviously, his advanced stats aren't the best as you point out, but his core stats so to speak, are typically above league average.


So you're just going to ignore the fact NFL GMs and scouts put him at the 24th best QB at the end of 2015---and say a lot of people like him? Even PFF last month only has Tannehill at 18th best QB after his latest season, which still makes him a below average QB. You argue Tannehill's high passer rating but I counter that any decent QB could average 90+ QB rating with the type of weapons Miami put around Tannehill. Let's recap, in 2014 Tannehill had:

David Cameron - top 10 TE)
Mike Wallace - game-breaking WR)
Kenny Stills - PFF rated him as best deep threat receiver before he went to Miami, so another game-breaking speedster WR
Rishard Matthews - In Miami PFF rated him as the only WR with a very high playing time that logged a high catch rate AND a high yard per reception number. Moreover, with Mariota targeting him in Tenn's offense, PFF says Matthews is now a top deep receiving target now too. So again, Tannehill had a very good WR talent here.
Charles Clay - top 10 TE
RB Miller - very good RB

So Tannehill's getting a 90+ rating in 2014 was something any QB could have achieved with the same weapons. He was elevated by his surroundings but Tannehill is still a below average QB, everything considered. Now as for 2016 Tannehill's latest season where he got a 90+ QB rating, he was give similar help and was actually outplayed by his own backup: Matt Moore. Moore put up a 105 rating. Over more games that rating would decline but it would still be 90+, Moore played some good defenses and got registered 3/4 90+ ratings (one of them was 100+). So going back to what I implied, Tannehill's passer rating is an empty rate stat that has more to his weapons, line, etc than Tannehill's actual play. Matt Moore's better passer rating in Miami is additional proof of this.

TD-INT ratio is another rate stat. Tannehill's rate stat on that account comes from his weapons and environment, same as Fitz in 2015. Both QBs are below average to bottom 10 regardless, which is where most people who study them rank them.
He had a solid 2016 season and yes, I am ignoring that. The stats don't lie and he's not one of the more well-liked QB's in the league. Also, Jordan Cameron was NOT a top 10 TE for starters, Mike Wallace was trending down as a receiver, and also Clay was not a top 10 TE prior to Tannehill. Cameron was coming off a really down year in Cleveland. Clay? He did NOTHING in this league over his first two years. Tannehill made the guy look good. Also, TD-INT is another rate stat? That's BS. Look at the majority of the elite QB's in the league. They have very high TD:INT ratio's. How many good QB's in this league don't have a TD/INT ratio higher than 2? Also, as an edit, you're hyping up Matthews who couldn't crack the receiving core, Kenny Stills was still a Saint, and Lamar was the backup RB. Moreno started.


Who cares abut his TD/INT ratio? Matt Moore put up a better QB rating than Tannehill. I think Moore has about the same or better TD-INT ratio as Tannehill last season. So Tannehill's TD-INT ratio is a rate stat that comes from having so many weapons, a great line, etc. Tannehill's real ability is in the fact he can't convert 3rd downs. And also in the fact his backup may be better than him.

Moving on, Clay was very good from 2013 onwards (don't know why you're including his rookie years as though TEs don't take time to develop), and very good in 2014, Tannehill's first 90+ QB rating year. Clay has since become a great TE in Buffalo. He would be even better if Taylor could throw over the middle. Cameron now is a top 10 FLEX TE, he just has no QB. Cameron runs down the seam and deep, but his QBs suck (i.e. Hoyer after teams made him throw outside, Tannehill, etc) so nothing comes from it. Matthews, as I said earlier, put up ridiculous efficiency numbers in Miami and has done even better in Tenn. So he was always a good receiver; the problem was Tannehill. The same issue with Mike Wallace. Wallace had his best season this past year in Baltimore after 2 years in Miami? Why? Because Tannehill sucks. Wallace put up 1000+ yards/14.1 yards per reception in 2016 Baltimore against 862 yards/12.1 yards in 2014 Miami because Flacco is better than Tannehill, even when Flacco doesn't play well. If Wallace was given Big Ben, he would go back to 15+ yards per reception and incredible efficiency.

Summarily then, the problem in Miami for Wallace and Rishard Matthews (and likely Cameron) is...Ryan Tannehill. That's why many people--including GMs--rank Tannehill as a bottom to below average QB. His backup is almost as good or better than him. His empty stats mean nothing. We'll see what he does when Kenny Stills (I make a mistake in saying Stills played in 2014, he didn't but Wallace did, same guy imho) leaves. Back to dink and dunk inefficiency no doubt. Maybe his line will give him 3 days to make a decision like they did last year..who knows..but Tannehill sucks.
EVERYBODY cares about it man. When you look at a QB to see how good of a year he had, the first thing you look at is TD's to INT's. Why do you think people say Peyton struggled his first year? Because he threw so many INT's. Clay sucked in 2011 and 2012. He came into his own when Tannehill started to play well. He came into his own in 2013. You then say Clay became this great TE while PFF rarely ranks the guy in their top 15 TE's. That's based off receiving and blocking. He's overrated. The dolphins then added Cameron is 2014 and he sucked (but according to you, he was a top 10 TE). You then blame that on his crappy QB play, yet he lit it up 1 year in his 6 year career. His QB? Jason Campbell and Brandon freaking Weeden. So it's his QB play that's clearly holding the guy back. And going back to Matthews and Wallace, again, Wallace was trending down when he left Pittsbugh. Matthews couldn't crack the depth chart in Miami. Oh and you're saying Wallace had a good year in Baltimore., you talk about YPC, etc., right? The difference between 13.1 when he left Pitt and the 12.8 YPC he put up over two years in Miami is MINUSCULE for starters, but I digress. Why did he put up bigger numbers this year in Baltimore? Simple. Flacco had zero run game and threw the ball a whopping 672 times this year. Only Brees threw the ball more. Tannehill? In 2013 he threw the ball 588 times, 590 in 2014. Give him an extra 80 throws and maybe Wallace would have broken 1000 yards. Anything else you want to throw at me? You're overvaluing the weapons the guy has. If anything, you should have debated that he had weapons this year because guy actually did.
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