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What 1st round prospects do you think drop to day 2 or 3?
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MemphisEagles


Joined: 11 Nov 2014
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:13 am    Post subject: What 1st round prospects do you think drop to day 2 or 3? Reply with quote

Thread inspired by Surprise First Rounders thread.

Deshaun Watson and Jabrill Peppers are the obvious picks. I am going to go someone less obvious, Derek Barnett. Nothing about him stands out to me as a dominant lineman that you want to build your team around. He's a slightly better prospect than Carl Nassib imo.
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goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the obvious answer is any cornerback regular mocked in the first round. There are so many excellent corners in the class, teams will bypass their need for one in the first round knowing they can get starting calibre corners on day two and beyond.
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candyman93


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tim Williams
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MemphisEagles


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
I think the obvious answer is any cornerback regular mocked in the first round. There are so many excellent corners in the class, teams will bypass their need for one in the first round knowing they can get starting calibre corners on day two and beyond.


I'm thinking there's going to be a run on them. Corner isn't a position like HB or TE. It's not ridiculous to draft a nickel corner in the late first considering they're basically starters.

I think as it stands now, both Florida corners, Marlon Humphrey, Sydney Jones, and Marshon Lattimore for sure go in the first. I'd argue half the league could use a corner. I wouldn't mind the Eagles taking one and then trading back into the first for a second.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MemphisEagles wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:
I think the obvious answer is any cornerback regular mocked in the first round. There are so many excellent corners in the class, teams will bypass their need for one in the first round knowing they can get starting calibre corners on day two and beyond.


I'm thinking there's going to be a run on them. Corner isn't a position like HB or TE. It's not ridiculous to draft a nickel corner in the late first considering they're basically starters.

I think as it stands now, both Florida corners, Marlon Humphrey, Sydney Jones, and Marshon Lattimore for sure go in the first. I'd argue half the league could use a corner. I wouldn't mind the Eagles taking one and then trading back into the first for a second.


I'm not talking about the value of corners, I'm talking about the abundance of them in this draft. It's a basic supply and demand issue. If I'm a GM and I need offensive line help and a corner, I know I can wait to get the latter.
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MWil23


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tim Williams for sure.

*He'll be 24

*MAJOR off the field issues

*He's got a nice edge move and that's honestly about it. He'll get majorly exposed in the NFL in my opinion.
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brownie man


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

candyman93 wrote:
Tim Williams


I don't think it'll really be guys dropping as it'll be more of players going where they should be going and not what the media projects

Guys like Williams Peppers Watson are all 2nd to 3rd round picks that are being hyped.

Even a guy like Cam Robinson could "fall"
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bananabucket


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

brownie man wrote:
candyman93 wrote:
Tim Williams


I don't think it'll really be guys dropping as it'll be more of players going where they should be going and not what the media projects

Guys like Williams Peppers Watson are all 2nd to 3rd round picks that are being hyped.

Even a guy like Cam Robinson could "fall"



It seems obvious that Peppers will be a beast in the NFL. Maybe it's just me.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
I think the obvious answer is any cornerback regular mocked in the first round. There are so many excellent corners in the class, teams will bypass their need for one in the first round knowing they can get starting calibre corners on day two and beyond.


I disagree. CB is a position where teams can always use more bodies, and the shelf life of a corner isn't very long because when the legs go the play generally goes too. jshow had a statistic from his draft thread a couple of years ago that on average 32 corners were drafted every year. And when you've got a strong CB class, teams aren't going to pass on legitimate players simply because they might get a lesser version of them later when it's still a semi-premium position.
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tom cody


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the teams needing QB's I don't think Watson will fall out of the first round. As to Tim Williams, yeah age and off field problems will hurt his stock a bit.
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gopherwrestler


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Taco Charlton, Christian McCaffrey, Malik McDowell, John Ross
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:
I think the obvious answer is any cornerback regular mocked in the first round. There are so many excellent corners in the class, teams will bypass their need for one in the first round knowing they can get starting calibre corners on day two and beyond.


I disagree. CB is a position where teams can always use more bodies, and the shelf life of a corner isn't very long because when the legs go the play generally goes too. jshow had a statistic from his draft thread a couple of years ago that on average 32 corners were drafted every year. And when you've got a strong CB class, teams aren't going to pass on legitimate players simply because they might get a lesser version of them later when it's still a semi-premium position.


But it's not about the importance of the position, it's about the drop off in talent at one position over another once you get past round 1. Why would I take a corner in round 1, knowing I can get a similarly talented one further down the draft when the drop off between the offensive tackle I could take instead and the guys waiting for me in round 2 is enormous?
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Epyon


Joined: 02 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Deshone Kizer-QB is my pick to drop to the 2nd that would shock people...

Then again I have him 4th among the top 4 QBs right now... so it probably isn't that shocking unless you have him rated higher.


2. I think Njoku-TE slides to the early - mid2nd. Just think he's being slightly overvalued right now, when some boards are putting him as a 15-32 pick. And his valuation is probably going to go up even further post combine.... That being said, while he has an elite ceiling, I don't yet see him as finished enough product for a first rounder.


3. Christian McCaffrey-RB
I don't have a good reason for this one, it's just a hunch. I think everyone will expect this to be NE's pick, and then they'll go in another direction.
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RedRider


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Hooker
2. Njoku
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
But it's not about the importance of the position, it's about the drop off in talent at one position over another once you get past round 1. Why would I take a corner in round 1, knowing I can get a similarly talented one further down the draft when the drop off between the offensive tackle I could take instead and the guys waiting for me in round 2 is enormous?


Every year, we see certain positions (OL, EDGE, CB) that tend to get overvalued on draft day and often see players go off the board earlier than they're projected to go. I mean, how many people really thought that Ereck Flowers was a top 10 prospect? Every year, we see certain positions rise up the board, and others have their value diminished. Depth of a position does affect when you're talking about similar value players in a tier, but you're not going to pass up on a guy in a high tier simply because you're content with a lower tiered player and in the process take a lower valued player.
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