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Comp Picks announced, GB gets (1) 5th rounder
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BobSacamano


Joined: 22 Aug 2006
Posts: 13853
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HorizontoZenith wrote:
Pass rusher is one area I don't want to go to free agency for. I feel like a rookie pass rusher can learn this defense easier than a rookie cornerback can.

With pass rusher, I want Perry, Peppers, Matthews and a first round pick.

With corner I want Randall, free agent, free agent, rookie 2nd-3rd round pick, Rollins.


You may have just described the antithesis of Ted Thompson's BPA philosophy in designating priority positions for a specific round in the draft.
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last year's vikings were far better than the packers team that just won
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HUDSONandGRUDEN


Joined: 11 Jan 2012
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Location: Lafayette, Colorado
PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Are you familiar with the Eagles cap situation?


Honestly no I wasn't. Spent 20 minutes on that and realized I was wrong.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
absolutely. Go look at how many 3rd round comps were given out compared to that of 7th round comps. It's like the system flipped itself...


You're completely overthinking this thing. There's only a finite number of compensatory picks being handed out each year, 32. So if you have 10 3rd round picks given out, 10 4th round picks given out, and 10 5th & 6th round picks given out, there only leaves room for 2 7th round picks to be given out. I believe the only exception to that rule was last year, when we saw 33 picks given out instead of 32. Going off of AdamJT13's projection of 2010 compensatory picks, he had only three teams (Tennessee with Albert Haynesworth, Cincinnati with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Atlanta with Dominique Foxworth).

Now if you look at their AAV of their contracts, they're as follows:
Albert Hayneworth - $11.4M
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - $8M
Dominique Foxworth - $6.8M

Based on the fact that Stacey Andrews only created a 4th round pick in return for the Bengals, it seems that the threshold at that time was around $6.5M give or take. Based on the draft picks handed out this year, it seems that treshold is closer to $9M right now. And that has to do with the cap explosion. During the 2009 season, the salary cap was $123M. This past season, the salary cap was $155M.
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CentralFC


Joined: 03 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
NCPackFan wrote:
absolutely. Go look at how many 3rd round comps were given out compared to that of 7th round comps. It's like the system flipped itself...


You're completely overthinking this thing. There's only a finite number of compensatory picks being handed out each year, 32. So if you have 10 3rd round picks given out, 10 4th round picks given out, and 10 5th & 6th round picks given out, there only leaves room for 2 7th round picks to be given out. I believe the only exception to that rule was last year, when we saw 33 picks given out instead of 32. Going off of AdamJT13's projection of 2010 compensatory picks, he had only three teams (Tennessee with Albert Haynesworth, Cincinnati with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Atlanta with Dominique Foxworth).

Now if you look at their AAV of their contracts, they're as follows:
Albert Hayneworth - $11.4M
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - $8M
Dominique Foxworth - $6.8M

Based on the fact that Stacey Andrews only created a 4th round pick in return for the Bengals, it seems that the threshold at that time was around $6.5M give or take. Based on the draft picks handed out this year, it seems that treshold is closer to $9M right now. And that has to do with the cap explosion. During the 2009 season, the salary cap was $123M. This past season, the salary cap was $155M.


That's fine and dandy using Adam's projections but he hasn't posted once since the new CBA came out and it's been 5 years. Whether or not it holds true is really indeterminate and using his numbers or projections as a basis for today's compensatory formula is useless.
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Somebody take the off season shovel out of Ted's hands & bury him in his own hole.

How can he dig a hole if he's too busy sitting on his hands?
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TransientTexan


Joined: 27 Jul 2014
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think there is any conspiracy to hand out more 3rds Laughing It's mostly based off avg value of contract, which is why overthecap is almost dead-on at predicting comp pick rounds ahead of time. The total number of comp picks is kept at 32, but there is no limit on how many picks go per round. the number of picks in each round often vary from year to year.

Typically, the cutoff between a 3rd and a 4th comp pick is a contract that has an average value of 6% (+/- a couple tenths of a %) of the salary cap. 4th/5th cutoff is typically ~4.3%, 5th/6th ~2.9%, 6th/7th ~1.8%. It just so happened that more free agent contracts were handed out last year that met the dollar value cutoff threshold for a 3rd (and weren't cancelled out by the team signing a big $ free agent).
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HorizontoZenith


Joined: 03 Mar 2016
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BobSacamano wrote:
HorizontoZenith wrote:
Pass rusher is one area I don't want to go to free agency for. I feel like a rookie pass rusher can learn this defense easier than a rookie cornerback can.

With pass rusher, I want Perry, Peppers, Matthews and a first round pick.

With corner I want Randall, free agent, free agent, rookie 2nd-3rd round pick, Rollins.


You may have just described the antithesis of Ted Thompson's BPA philosophy in designating priority positions for a specific round in the draft.

I'm aware. Don't think I'll get my way, I just want my way.
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Shanedorf


Joined: 18 Mar 2014
Posts: 1507
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shanedorf wrote:

Remember that first and foremost, the NFL is an entertainment enterprise
From a ratings/cash perspective, having a bunch of teams swapping 6th and 7th rounders doesn't move the needle

Having a suplus of 3rd rounders does

3rd round comp picks used to be for truly special players and they were a lot more rare in previous years.
Any number of explanations for that, but money usually plays a role.
The draft is Big Business and having a bunch of trade-able 3rds makes for compelling TV on Day 1 and Day 2.


wgbeethree wrote:
Color me skeptical. I don't really believe it "moves the needle" at all. Casual fans don't care enough about the draft to have that as a determining factor in whether or not they are going to watch in my opinion. I could be entirely wrong but I don't see it causing a major rise in day two ratings. Casual fans just aren't going to flock in droves because of a little tweak.


Skepticism is good. But the NFL isn't hard to figure out. The NFL is doing everything they can to prop up game ratings and the draft has seen recent declines too.
They need to create some drama and having a surplus of 3rds may lead to some more drama. I agree it won't be the decider of whether or not to watch:
But that's also ignoring the reality of social media

Breathless comments like " the Jets trading up ! " "Cowboys trade multiple picks ! are sent out via Twitter and that gets some people to tune in, even if its only for awhile. Gotta pimp those ratings, every extra eyeball= mo money.

The NFL needs to reverse the trend of declining viewership that accompanied the big changes they made to draft weekend; they changed the rounds and days to maximize prime time viewership while destroying the tradition of a Draft Weekend party.

Once again, the NFL thumbed its nose at the die-hards in an attempt to woo the casual viewers. And once again, the casual viewers found something else to do and followed the next shiny thing that came along leaving the NFL wondering why the ratings are dropping...so they look for tweaks and gimmicks to get the casual viewer engaged.

I think the huge increase in 3rd rd comp picks can be partially traced to ratings, but I could be off
.
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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
Posts: 4459
Location: Quahog, RI
PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
NCPackFan wrote:
absolutely. Go look at how many 3rd round comps were given out compared to that of 7th round comps. It's like the system flipped itself...


You're completely overthinking this thing. There's only a finite number of compensatory picks being handed out each year, 32. So if you have 10 3rd round picks given out, 10 4th round picks given out, and 10 5th & 6th round picks given out, there only leaves room for 2 7th round picks to be given out. I believe the only exception to that rule was last year, when we saw 33 picks given out instead of 32. Going off of AdamJT13's projection of 2010 compensatory picks, he had only three teams (Tennessee with Albert Haynesworth, Cincinnati with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Atlanta with Dominique Foxworth).

Now if you look at their AAV of their contracts, they're as follows:
Albert Hayneworth - $11.4M
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - $8M
Dominique Foxworth - $6.8M

Based on the fact that Stacey Andrews only created a 4th round pick in return for the Bengals, it seems that the threshold at that time was around $6.5M give or take. Based on the draft picks handed out this year, it seems that treshold is closer to $9M right now. And that has to do with the cap explosion. During the 2009 season, the salary cap was $123M. This past season, the salary cap was $155M.


Thank you for your explanation. Just seems as if there is a disproportionate amount of 3rd rounders. I get the whole contract and AAV value and all. Just seems a bit off compared to previous years...
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CentralFC wrote:
That's fine and dandy using Adam's projections but he hasn't posted once since the new CBA came out and it's been 5 years. Whether or not it holds true is really indeterminate and using his numbers or projections as a basis for today's compensatory formula is useless.


I mean, I think OTC (Over The Cap) does a pretty good job showing their work. It really hasn't changed the formulate, maybe if you want to argue that the standards for what is a 3rd versus a 4th. But that can easily be explained by the increased salary cap.
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PackFan4Life wrote:
I have been pooping like a unicorn for two days and it is freaky.

bkobow05 wrote:
So this is what DCR feels like on Saturdays...
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gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

squire12 wrote:
Dang... CLeveland with 4 total comp picks
1 in the 3rd
2 in the 4th and
1 in the 5th

That adds a lot of draft picks to their already big total. They should be a


It just tells you players can't wait to get out of Cleveland. This is not a good thing.
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blankman0021


Joined: 02 May 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
CWood21 wrote:
NCPackFan wrote:
Looks like the formula to determine comp picks has significantly changed...


It has?


absolutely. Go look at how many 3rd round comps were given out compared to that of 7th round comps. It's like the system flipped itself...


It hasn't changed. Just more big money deals are being paid for above average players. There aren't any Reggie White players hitting FA often anymore. But you're seeing all-star deals handed out regardless.
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wgbeethree


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another possible reason?

The rookie salary cap.

If the formula is based on a percentage of the total salary cap and the rookie deals are lower now overall the free agents would be making a up larger percentage of the total cap hence the higher picks?

The combination of this, the increasing cap overall, and the salary cap floor makes so much sense to me.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackFan wrote:
Thank you for your explanation. Just seems as if there is a disproportionate amount of 3rd rounders. I get the whole contract and AAV value and all. Just seems a bit off compared to previous years...


LIS, just look at how much money was spent last offseason. And look how much teams have to spend this offseason. Teams have a TON of salary cap space.
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PackFan4Life wrote:
I have been pooping like a unicorn for two days and it is freaky.

bkobow05 wrote:
So this is what DCR feels like on Saturdays...
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wgbeethree wrote:
Another possible reason?

The rookie salary cap.

If the formula is based on a percentage of the total salary cap and the rookie deals are lower now overall the free agents would be making a up larger percentage of the total cap hence the higher picks?

The combination of this, the increasing cap overall, and the salary cap floor makes so much sense to me.


This is a good concept.
1. rookie wage scale has freed up $$ for Veterans in FA
2. overall cap going up each of last several seasons
3. salary cap floor meaning teams have to spend (within a few year window) or they loose the cap space
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