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Who would you rather have Derek Carr or Jameis Winston?
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Pick QB To Start a franchise
Jameis Winston
14%
 14%  [ 14 ]
Derek Carr
85%
 85%  [ 82 ]
Total Votes : 96

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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
Posts: 8099
PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nzd07 wrote:
MrOaktown_56 wrote:
Nzd07 wrote:
thebestever6 wrote:
Nzd07 wrote:
thebestever6 wrote:
Carr had 7 4th quarter comebacks last year in 15 games and 7 game winning drives what a qb does in crunch time is what counts the most. Thats why,the last,drive and 3rd downs are known as the money downs. That's why Aaron Rodgers from the eye test is the best I've seen.

That's why I want Paxton Lynch to win the Broncos starting qb spot.

That's why Dak Presscott won rookie of the year over Elliot.

Carr all day.


That's a pretty dumb way of evaluating QBs because you're giving good QBs with good defenses a disadvantage because they don't have the ability to comeback because they put the team away early.


when arguing a guy like luck or Brees who have virtually no defense I'd tend to agree but the raiders and Bucs were within 3 of each other in defensive rankings so it does indeed have merit.

You can argue that Winston had inferior weapons to Carr and that's why they went out and got a D Jax amd drafted playmakers in the draft like Oj Howard but to say that has no merit just wouldn't be right. In the grand scheme of things I'd lean towards Carr.


I didn't say it has no merit but it's not a statistic I'd value very highly, PERSONALLY. Just like QB wins, you're giving one player the credit for the entire TEAM coming back and winning the game. What if Jameis is on the verge of a comeback, but one of his linemen blows an assignment for a strip sack? Or what if a receiver runs the wrong route? You can't fault one player for a lack of comeback wins. There's just way too many variables that go into an NFL game to consider the final outcome a judgement on a single player.

That said, "game managers" do still exist. There will always be guys like Smith, Bradford, etc. who are too scared of throwing an INT that they'll leave yards on the field in comeback situations. I think it's safe to say neither of these 2 QBs would be scared to open things up when down.

Despite all of this, I actually agree that Carr is the better QB. But that's mainly because he's more efficient (although he does have the superior supporting cast,) and I also think Jameis is a bit too wreckless at times and can try to force things when under pressure.


"More efficient"? There's more to it than you let on:

He's a better decision maker when it comes to keeping the ball safe. He has more arm talent and his deep ball is one of the best in the league. I highly doubt anyone will debate any of that.


Can you read?


And Jameis has amazing arm talent so not sure why you brought that up:
https://youtu.be/hcLnxdJukY0?t=48s


Looks like I hit a nerve Laughing

Carr is better, but it isn't just because he's more efficient/decision making. That throw is nothing impressive. Carr has made far more impressive throws than that, if that's what you're trying to prove.

Bucs fans will tell you that Jameis' deep accuracy isn't great. He missed evans a lot deep last year.
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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Nzd07


Joined: 13 Nov 2010
Posts: 4005
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:
Nzd07 wrote:
MrOaktown_56 wrote:
Nzd07 wrote:
thebestever6 wrote:
Nzd07 wrote:
thebestever6 wrote:
Carr had 7 4th quarter comebacks last year in 15 games and 7 game winning drives what a qb does in crunch time is what counts the most. Thats why,the last,drive and 3rd downs are known as the money downs. That's why Aaron Rodgers from the eye test is the best I've seen.

That's why I want Paxton Lynch to win the Broncos starting qb spot.

That's why Dak Presscott won rookie of the year over Elliot.

Carr all day.


That's a pretty dumb way of evaluating QBs because you're giving good QBs with good defenses a disadvantage because they don't have the ability to comeback because they put the team away early.


when arguing a guy like luck or Brees who have virtually no defense I'd tend to agree but the raiders and Bucs were within 3 of each other in defensive rankings so it does indeed have merit.

You can argue that Winston had inferior weapons to Carr and that's why they went out and got a D Jax amd drafted playmakers in the draft like Oj Howard but to say that has no merit just wouldn't be right. In the grand scheme of things I'd lean towards Carr.


I didn't say it has no merit but it's not a statistic I'd value very highly, PERSONALLY. Just like QB wins, you're giving one player the credit for the entire TEAM coming back and winning the game. What if Jameis is on the verge of a comeback, but one of his linemen blows an assignment for a strip sack? Or what if a receiver runs the wrong route? You can't fault one player for a lack of comeback wins. There's just way too many variables that go into an NFL game to consider the final outcome a judgement on a single player.

That said, "game managers" do still exist. There will always be guys like Smith, Bradford, etc. who are too scared of throwing an INT that they'll leave yards on the field in comeback situations. I think it's safe to say neither of these 2 QBs would be scared to open things up when down.

Despite all of this, I actually agree that Carr is the better QB. But that's mainly because he's more efficient (although he does have the superior supporting cast,) and I also think Jameis is a bit too wreckless at times and can try to force things when under pressure.


"More efficient"? There's more to it than you let on:

He's a better decision maker when it comes to keeping the ball safe. He has more arm talent and his deep ball is one of the best in the league. I highly doubt anyone will debate any of that.


Can you read?


And Jameis has amazing arm talent so not sure why you brought that up:
https://youtu.be/hcLnxdJukY0?t=48s


Looks like I hit a nerve Laughing

Carr is better, but it isn't just because he's more efficient/decision making. That throw is nothing impressive. Carr has made far more impressive throws than that, if that's what you're trying to prove.

Bucs fans will tell you that Jameis' deep accuracy isn't great. He missed evans a lot deep last year.



Carr had a better deep ball completion rate, but Winston also had FAR more air yards last year. That's going to skew the numbers. Not to mention that the Bucs didn't have the proper personnel to be running so many deep routes. If D-Jax can stay healthy Winston will be viewed in the same tier as Carr next season. Book it. Their completion rate under pressure was also the same which is surprising. So yeah, Carr just isn't what you Raiders fans hype him up to be, given what he has around him. The fact that people actually think this dude is better than Wilson/Luck is just absurd. He's closer to Cousins and Stafford than he is those two.


Of course, your rebuttal will be some armchair NFL scout analysis and probably a couple GIFs. But that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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bucsfan333


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jameis does force throws from time to time and he has had some stinkers. But of his 18 INTs last season, three were desperation Hail Marys with no time left in the game, four were tipped off the receiver's hands, and one was miscommunication with VJax. So his INTs are a bit inflated from what he actually should have thrown.
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
Posts: 8099
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nzd07 wrote:


Carr had a better deep ball completion rate, but Winston also had FAR more air yards last year.


Maybe that had to do with the fact that defenses respected Carr's deep ball and gave up underneath throws?

Throwing farther down field on average doesn't mean you have better deep ball accuracy. Carr is one of the best in that regard. Winston is not. It has absolutely nothing to do with numbers. It's the eye test. Find someone who'll disagree with me on that.

Nzd07 wrote:


That's going to skew the numbers.


Carr had the 3rd lowest percentage of deep throws (over 20 yards), but the 8th most yards on passes over 20 yards. His deep ball completion percentage of 59.3% is almost the same as winston's 60.8 completion percentage.

So much for skewing stats.


Nzd07 wrote:

Not to mention that the Bucs didn't have the proper personnel to be running so many deep routes. If D-Jax can stay healthy Winston will be viewed in the same tier as Carr next season.



Ok... so what you're telling me is... Jameis is as good as Carr because you want to speculate on what will happen next year. Sounds like a lot of substance based on what we've seen so far. What you fail to acknowledge with the "personnel" argument is that Winston flat out missed throws deep. That has absolutely nothing to do with personnel.

Also, how will getting better at deep passing help him in other key areas in this comparison, including decision making and 4th quarter play.

Carr was 3rd in 4th quarter passer rating. Winston was 19th.

Carr had 6 interceptions. Winston had 18. I'm sure Desean Jackson will magically cut down on the bad decisions right?


Nzd07 wrote:


Their completion rate under pressure was also the same which is surprising.


Ok, this is true. Lets see where this goes...

Nzd07 wrote:


So yeah, Carr just isn't what you Raiders fans hype him up to be, given what he has around him.


So lemme get this straight: Carr is a better deep passer, he turns the ball over less, and he's better in the 4th quarter, not to mention playing a third of the season with a broken finger, but because Jameis had a similar passer rating under pressure, suddenly that means Carr's overrated?

Laughing

Nzd07 wrote:

The fact that people actually think this dude is better than Wilson/Luck is just absurd. He's closer to Cousins and Stafford than he is those two.


The hilarious thing here is that Luck's passer rating under pressure is almost identical to Winston and Carr's.

What does Carr need to do based on last year to be compared to Wilson and Luck? Not be a top 5 MVP candidate as a 3rd year qb?

And stafford and cousins are good so it's not much of an insult.

Nzd07 wrote:

Of course, your rebuttal will be some armchair NFL scout analysis and probably a couple GIFs.

The same way you posted an "armchair" clip to prove that Winston is a good deep passer?


Nzd07 wrote:

But that's my story and I'm sticking to it.


Clearly, facts are not enough to persuade you, and any attempt to show plays from a game, statistics, or GIFS is "armchair analysis" even though you did the exact same thing.

But since you brought up an ok throw to show off "amazing arm talent", let me show you what amazing arm talent really looks like:



This throw could only have gone in a tiny window and still been a touchdown. And it travelled over 40 yards in the air. One of the best throws of 2015. His throw against vontae davis in the colts game to drop a 40 yard throw in the bucket was even better this year. But hey, "amchair analysis" right?

I've seen enough here.
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck


Last edited by MrOaktown_56 on Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:55 am; edited 1 time in total
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucsfan333 wrote:
Jameis does force throws from time to time and he has had some stinkers. But of his 18 INTs last season, three were desperation Hail Marys with no time left in the game, four were tipped off the receiver's hands, and one was miscommunication with VJax. So his INTs are a bit inflated from what he actually should have thrown.


I absolutely agree with you. I'm not trashing Jameis here. Just trying to poke holes in this guy's nonsensical argument.
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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w4rrior723


Joined: 27 Dec 2006
Posts: 5509
PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Winston is a good choice, but Carr is the best young QB in the game. Easy choice.
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BayRaider


Joined: 01 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's not even Carr's best throw either.
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BayRaider wrote:
That's not even Carr's best throw either.


Not even close. Just an example of the kind of plays he can make with his arm. He had 2 incredible deep balls his rookie year against the Bills and Cardinals that would have been gif worthy.
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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bucsfan333


Joined: 15 Jun 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:
bucsfan333 wrote:
Jameis does force throws from time to time and he has had some stinkers. But of his 18 INTs last season, three were desperation Hail Marys with no time left in the game, four were tipped off the receiver's hands, and one was miscommunication with VJax. So his INTs are a bit inflated from what he actually should have thrown.


I absolutely agree with you. I'm not trashing Jameis here. Just trying to poke holes in this guy's nonsensical argument.

I know. I just see how the argument that 'Jameis throws too many INTs' is used as a knock against him and wanted to help clarify. I think too many people saw all the INTs he threw his last year in college and his rookie year, and fed into the hype of his "poor decision making." He's actually not that bad. It's something he needs to improve (along with his accuracy from time to time), but it's not as bad as most make it out to be.

He does force throws. But almost half of his INTs last year weren't really his fault. And he sees things that don't look like they're there, all the time. The way he throws guys open and throws balls to guys that aren't yet open is actually pretty amazing, given his age and very short time in the league. He trusts his guys to make plays and we didn't have those guys last year. I expect this year to be much better.
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BayRaider


Joined: 01 Jun 2011
Posts: 5255
PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucsfan333 wrote:
MrOaktown_56 wrote:
bucsfan333 wrote:
Jameis does force throws from time to time and he has had some stinkers. But of his 18 INTs last season, three were desperation Hail Marys with no time left in the game, four were tipped off the receiver's hands, and one was miscommunication with VJax. So his INTs are a bit inflated from what he actually should have thrown.


I absolutely agree with you. I'm not trashing Jameis here. Just trying to poke holes in this guy's nonsensical argument.

I know. I just see how the argument that 'Jameis throws too many INTs' is used as a knock against him and wanted to help clarify. I think too many people saw all the INTs he threw his last year in college and his rookie year, and fed into the hype of his "poor decision making." He's actually not that bad. It's something he needs to improve (along with his accuracy from time to time), but it's not as bad as most make it out to be.

He does force throws. But almost half of his INTs last year weren't really his fault. And he sees things that don't look like they're there, all the time. The way he throws guys open and throws balls to guys that aren't yet open is actually pretty amazing, given his age and very short time in the league. He trusts his guys to make plays and we didn't have those guys last year. I expect this year to be much better.


You do realize half of almost all QB interceptions isn't there fault right? Except the really bad ones. Three of Carrs INTs weren't his fault last year clearly. See how easy that is?
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bucsfan333


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BayRaider wrote:
You do realize half of almost all QB interceptions isn't there fault right? Except the really bad ones. Three of Carrs INTs weren't his fault last year clearly. See how easy that is?

Ok. Sure. I don't know whether or not that's true. But, ok.

I was talking specifically about Jameis and the idea that he makes bad decisions because he throws a lot of INTs. Because it isn't really true.
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Jakuvious


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 10:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucsfan333 wrote:
BayRaider wrote:
You do realize half of almost all QB interceptions isn't there fault right? Except the really bad ones. Three of Carrs INTs weren't his fault last year clearly. See how easy that is?

Ok. Sure. I don't know whether or not that's true. But, ok.

I was talking specifically about Jameis and the idea that he makes bad decisions because he throws a lot of INTs. Because it isn't really true.


The point he's trying to make though, is that wiping out INTs because they weren't his fault just doesn't ultimately change anything. Every QB has INTs that aren't their fault. And while some seasons can be particularly lucky or unlucky, those are not the norm. So even if we accept what you say as true, that 7 of his interceptions were not his fault (I will not accept the 8th, because a miscommunication, we can't determine who was at fault), first of all, that leaves him at 11, which still isn't a great number. Your great QBs (Rodgers, Brady) and your great QB seasons (last year's Ryan, Carr, two years ago Newton, etc.) still come in under that number. So do your more efficient or conservative QBs (Smith, Bradford, Prescott, Dalton, etc.) So in terms of INT count, you're really just moving him into the tier with QBs like Stafford, Luck, or Cousins, who are in their own right kind of reckless QBs. But then when you figure that they each likely had INTs that weren't their fault as well, Winston is still going to wind up responsible for more INTs than each of them.

And this isn't even getting to the fact that plenty of INTs are dropped. Which I doubt you kept close track of those. And even some that you say aren't his fault (particularly the ones tipped of receivers hands) may still in fact be at least partially due to poor ball placement on Winston's part. I'm taking your word for it on the 7 because it's easier, frankly.

The reality is, anything excuses or exceptions made to INT totals always come out to a wash. They can be done for every QB, and normally the bad luck (tips, drops, hail marys) are offset by the good luck (dropped INTs, penalties, etc.) In a relative sense, accounting for all of those things for Jameis and every other QB in the NFL, he's still going to have a higher INT total than the vast majority of QBs.
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MrOaktown_56


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jakuvious wrote:
bucsfan333 wrote:
BayRaider wrote:
You do realize half of almost all QB interceptions isn't there fault right? Except the really bad ones. Three of Carrs INTs weren't his fault last year clearly. See how easy that is?

Ok. Sure. I don't know whether or not that's true. But, ok.

I was talking specifically about Jameis and the idea that he makes bad decisions because he throws a lot of INTs. Because it isn't really true.


The point he's trying to make though, is that wiping out INTs because they weren't his fault just doesn't ultimately change anything. Every QB has INTs that aren't their fault. And while some seasons can be particularly lucky or unlucky, those are not the norm. So even if we accept what you say as true, that 7 of his interceptions were not his fault (I will not accept the 8th, because a miscommunication, we can't determine who was at fault), first of all, that leaves him at 11, which still isn't a great number. Your great QBs (Rodgers, Brady) and your great QB seasons (last year's Ryan, Carr, two years ago Newton, etc.) still come in under that number. So do your more efficient or conservative QBs (Smith, Bradford, Prescott, Dalton, etc.) So in terms of INT count, you're really just moving him into the tier with QBs like Stafford, Luck, or Cousins, who are in their own right kind of reckless QBs. But then when you figure that they each likely had INTs that weren't their fault as well, Winston is still going to wind up responsible for more INTs than each of them.

And this isn't even getting to the fact that plenty of INTs are dropped. Which I doubt you kept close track of those. And even some that you say aren't his fault (particularly the ones tipped of receivers hands) may still in fact be at least partially due to poor ball placement on Winston's part. I'm taking your word for it on the 7 because it's easier, frankly.

The reality is, anything excuses or exceptions made to INT totals always come out to a wash. They can be done for every QB, and normally the bad luck (tips, drops, hail marys) are offset by the good luck (dropped INTs, penalties, etc.) In a relative sense, accounting for all of those things for Jameis and every other QB in the NFL, he's still going to have a higher INT total than the vast majority of QBs.


You're the man just for the bolded
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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bucsfan333


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jakuvious wrote:
bucsfan333 wrote:
BayRaider wrote:
You do realize half of almost all QB interceptions isn't there fault right? Except the really bad ones. Three of Carrs INTs weren't his fault last year clearly. See how easy that is?

Ok. Sure. I don't know whether or not that's true. But, ok.

I was talking specifically about Jameis and the idea that he makes bad decisions because he throws a lot of INTs. Because it isn't really true.


The point he's trying to make though, is that wiping out INTs because they weren't his fault just doesn't ultimately change anything. Every QB has INTs that aren't their fault. And while some seasons can be particularly lucky or unlucky, those are not the norm. So even if we accept what you say as true, that 7 of his interceptions were not his fault (I will not accept the 8th, because a miscommunication, we can't determine who was at fault), first of all, that leaves him at 11, which still isn't a great number. Your great QBs (Rodgers, Brady) and your great QB seasons (last year's Ryan, Carr, two years ago Newton, etc.) still come in under that number. So do your more efficient or conservative QBs (Smith, Bradford, Prescott, Dalton, etc.) So in terms of INT count, you're really just moving him into the tier with QBs like Stafford, Luck, or Cousins, who are in their own right kind of reckless QBs. But then when you figure that they each likely had INTs that weren't their fault as well, Winston is still going to wind up responsible for more INTs than each of them.

And this isn't even getting to the fact that plenty of INTs are dropped. Which I doubt you kept close track of those. And even some that you say aren't his fault (particularly the ones tipped of receivers hands) may still in fact be at least partially due to poor ball placement on Winston's part. I'm taking your word for it on the 7 because it's easier, frankly.

The reality is, anything excuses or exceptions made to INT totals always come out to a wash. They can be done for every QB, and normally the bad luck (tips, drops, hail marys) are offset by the good luck (dropped INTs, penalties, etc.) In a relative sense, accounting for all of those things for Jameis and every other QB in the NFL, he's still going to have a higher INT total than the vast majority of QBs.

And the point I'm trying to make is that Jameis isn't some idiot that just chucks the ball everywhere all willy nilly. Using his INT numbers to try and drive the argument that he forces too many passes is incorrect. It's boxscore scouting, at best.
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucsfan333 wrote:
Jakuvious wrote:
bucsfan333 wrote:
BayRaider wrote:
You do realize half of almost all QB interceptions isn't there fault right? Except the really bad ones. Three of Carrs INTs weren't his fault last year clearly. See how easy that is?

Ok. Sure. I don't know whether or not that's true. But, ok.

I was talking specifically about Jameis and the idea that he makes bad decisions because he throws a lot of INTs. Because it isn't really true.


The point he's trying to make though, is that wiping out INTs because they weren't his fault just doesn't ultimately change anything. Every QB has INTs that aren't their fault. And while some seasons can be particularly lucky or unlucky, those are not the norm. So even if we accept what you say as true, that 7 of his interceptions were not his fault (I will not accept the 8th, because a miscommunication, we can't determine who was at fault), first of all, that leaves him at 11, which still isn't a great number. Your great QBs (Rodgers, Brady) and your great QB seasons (last year's Ryan, Carr, two years ago Newton, etc.) still come in under that number. So do your more efficient or conservative QBs (Smith, Bradford, Prescott, Dalton, etc.) So in terms of INT count, you're really just moving him into the tier with QBs like Stafford, Luck, or Cousins, who are in their own right kind of reckless QBs. But then when you figure that they each likely had INTs that weren't their fault as well, Winston is still going to wind up responsible for more INTs than each of them.

And this isn't even getting to the fact that plenty of INTs are dropped. Which I doubt you kept close track of those. And even some that you say aren't his fault (particularly the ones tipped of receivers hands) may still in fact be at least partially due to poor ball placement on Winston's part. I'm taking your word for it on the 7 because it's easier, frankly.

The reality is, anything excuses or exceptions made to INT totals always come out to a wash. They can be done for every QB, and normally the bad luck (tips, drops, hail marys) are offset by the good luck (dropped INTs, penalties, etc.) In a relative sense, accounting for all of those things for Jameis and every other QB in the NFL, he's still going to have a higher INT total than the vast majority of QBs.

And the point I'm trying to make is that Jameis isn't some idiot that just chucks the ball everywhere all willy nilly. Using his INT numbers to try and drive the argument that he forces too many passes is incorrect. It's boxscore scouting, at best.


Neither of you are wrong. The answer lies in the middle.
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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