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Offseason Strategy: RB's
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childofpudding


Joined: 29 Jul 2015
Posts: 902
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lancerman wrote:
childofpudding wrote:
Mental confidence, absolutely I agree. Physical confidence to make the cuts he is known for after ACL surgery is a different question. It will be interesting to see how he does after a full offseason being healthy.

I hope they don't swap out Lewis for Blount. I'd much rather have Lewis in there. See how he, White and Burkhead do this season and then make a decision on who to re-sign, as they're all going to be UFAs.


Blounts been available. Lewis has injury issues.

His knee injury is a concern, but I'd much rather keep him and his better production in the run game, in the passing game, and on ST, over a sub 4 yds/carry Blount. It's not like Lewis has been riddled with different injuries his whole career. He had the one serious knee injury (which like I said, is a concern) and that's pretty much it.

Would people really rather have Blount? I love his attitude since he's come here, but no thanks. He's older and has like a half-yard less per carry than Lewis behind the same O-line.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 32059
PostPosted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

childofpudding wrote:
lancerman wrote:
childofpudding wrote:
Mental confidence, absolutely I agree. Physical confidence to make the cuts he is known for after ACL surgery is a different question. It will be interesting to see how he does after a full offseason being healthy.

I hope they don't swap out Lewis for Blount. I'd much rather have Lewis in there. See how he, White and Burkhead do this season and then make a decision on who to re-sign, as they're all going to be UFAs.


Blounts been available. Lewis has injury issues.

His knee injury is a concern, but I'd much rather keep him and his better production in the run game, in the passing game, and on ST, over a sub 4 yds/carry Blount. It's not like Lewis has been riddled with different injuries his whole career. He had the one serious knee injury (which like I said, is a concern) and that's pretty much it.

Would people really rather have Blount? I love his attitude since he's come here, but no thanks. He's older and has like a half-yard less per carry than Lewis behind the same O-line.


Lewis is very limited in the way he can be used as a runner, which is the issue. He's a change up guy, not a 20 carry a game guy. Better use of a roster spot than Blount? I'd say so, but I don't particularly want either on the roster but Lewis is more useful - assuming that he regains his pre-injury form, which isn't a given.

Last year's Lewis is a guy I'd try to replace for 2017. 2015 Lewis is a limited but useful player who has a role on the team.
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lancerman


Joined: 06 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lewis played 15 games in 2011.

Since then:

2012: 9 games played
2013: 0 games played
2014: 0 games played
2015: 7 games played
2016: 7 games played.

That's 23 games in the last 5 years *regular season. Just to give you an idea, Gronk's played 56 games in that same timeframe.

By comparison Blount's played 73 games in the last 5 years. Blount's been available for 50 more games.

There's no positive way to spin that. If I had to choose, it's Blount and it's not close. Lewis might be more versatile and more explosive, but not enough to justify how much time he misses. Especially when you consider that Lewis is not capable of handling the workload Blount is. Blount last year by himself had 299 attempts. Lewis has had 149 in the 6 years since he became a pro. By comparison Blount's only 2 years where he's had less than 149 attempts.

I'll take the availability and ability to grind out longer than a guy who has completed completed 50% of the season ONCE since his rookie year and only had over 50 attempts ONCE in his career.

It's a no brainer to me if you are choosing between the two.
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bluemushrooms


Joined: 10 Dec 2013
Posts: 2899
PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

lancerman wrote:
Lewis played 15 games in 2011.

Since then:

2012: 9 games played
2013: 0 games played
2014: 0 games played
2015: 7 games played
2016: 7 games played.

That's 23 games in the last 5 years *regular season. Just to give you an idea, Gronk's played 56 games in that same timeframe.

By comparison Blount's played 73 games in the last 5 years. Blount's been available for 50 more games.

There's no positive way to spin that. If I had to choose, it's Blount and it's not close. Lewis might be more versatile and more explosive, but not enough to justify how much time he misses. Especially when you consider that Lewis is not capable of handling the workload Blount is. Blount last year by himself had 299 attempts. Lewis has had 149 in the 6 years since he became a pro. By comparison Blount's only 2 years where he's had less than 149 attempts.

I'll take the availability and ability to grind out longer than a guy who has completed completed 50% of the season ONCE since his rookie year and only had over 50 attempts ONCE in his career.

It's a no brainer to me if you are choosing between the two.


I'd take Blount over Lewis any day because of what you said ^

Not to mention, we already have White and now Burkhead on the team so Lewis' skillset isn't as unique as it was before. He's still something special but, we can sort of replicate what he brings to the offense with Burkhead and White.

Unfortunately, neither Burkhead, White, or even Lewis can bring what Blount brought to the offense (hard nose runner with ability to bust out serious yards and sometimes go superman mode). Yeah, I know people are going to say Blount sucks at short yardage and doesn't run hard or dances in the backfield all the time but, it doesn't change the fact that he's still 250 lbs of meat slamming into defenders regardless of how early he goes down.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 32059
PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

lancerman wrote:
Lewis played 15 games in 2011.

Since then:

2012: 9 games played
2013: 0 games played
2014: 0 games played
2015: 7 games played
2016: 7 games played.

That's 23 games in the last 5 years *regular season. Just to give you an idea, Gronk's played 56 games in that same timeframe.

By comparison Blount's played 73 games in the last 5 years. Blount's been available for 50 more games.

There's no positive way to spin that. If I had to choose, it's Blount and it's not close. Lewis might be more versatile and more explosive, but not enough to justify how much time he misses. Especially when you consider that Lewis is not capable of handling the workload Blount is. Blount last year by himself had 299 attempts. Lewis has had 149 in the 6 years since he became a pro. By comparison Blount's only 2 years where he's had less than 149 attempts.

I'll take the availability and ability to grind out longer than a guy who has completed completed 50% of the season ONCE since his rookie year and only had over 50 attempts ONCE in his career.

It's a no brainer to me if you are choosing between the two.


Why are you counting 2012 and 2014? He was healthy both years, just not deemed good enough to play.

He's had two major injuries, the broken leg (unlikely to happen again) and torn ACL. Each of which cost him a full season.

He's not a guy I deem as durable based on his size, running style and already repaired knee, but the analysis you posted is disingenuous at best.
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childofpudding


Joined: 29 Jul 2015
Posts: 902
PostPosted: Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blount is an UFA who had 1,100+ rushing yards and led the league in rushing TDs last season, but is seemingly getting zero to little interest from other teams. That should tell you something. 30th in yds/carry last season, another year older, and had a hip injury in 2015. We don't have to have a 250-pound RB on the roster just because he's a 250-pound RB. 299 attempts is nice. But 69 of them, almost 1 out of every 4 carries, were for 0 yards or less. More importantly, aside from a couple games vs. Indy, he's been a non-factor in the playoffs.

I do see murt's and others' points about Lewis. I just looked at his contract and his cap hit is nearly $1.5m for next season, but the team will only absorb a $200k dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So I could see the team cutting/trading Lewis because of the redundancy with Burkhead and White. I just don't want them to do it in order to re-sign Blount.
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bluemushrooms


Joined: 10 Dec 2013
Posts: 2899
PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

childofpudding wrote:
Blount is an UFA who had 1,100+ rushing yards and led the league in rushing TDs last season, but is seemingly getting zero to little interest from other teams. That should tell you something. 30th in yds/carry last season, another year older, and had a hip injury in 2015. We don't have to have a 250-pound RB on the roster just because he's a 250-pound RB. 299 attempts is nice. But 69 of them, almost 1 out of every 4 carries, were for 0 yards or less. More importantly, aside from a couple games vs. Indy, he's been a non-factor in the playoffs.

I do see murt's and others' points about Lewis. I just looked at his contract and his cap hit is nearly $1.5m for next season, but the team will only absorb a $200k dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So I could see the team cutting/trading Lewis because of the redundancy with Burkhead and White. I just don't want them to do it in order to re-sign Blount.



I think it's moreso that other teams realize they can't properly utilize Blount as effectively as BB can.

Jamaal Charles, AP, Rashad Jennings, etc. are all still unsigned and they're fantastic RB's also. I don't think Blount's current UFA status is an indictment on a lack of interest in him.



First of all, his lack of production/gametime in the playoffs shouldn't have any weight in this discussion imo. White didn't have nearly the same impact he had in the SB as he did in the regular season. In contrast, Amendola didn't do anything until the playoffs. As long as a player is helping us win games, regardless of whether or not they're in the playoffs or SB, that's what counts.

Blount is a legitimate threat as a runner because he absolutely has the ability to take it home when in open field, can break out on outside runs, and can pound away decent inside runs when he lowers his shoulder. Runners like Gray, Matt Jones, James Stark, and to some extent DeMarco Murray etc. are imo "bad" RB's because they are one-dimensional BEYOND the two broad skillsets of running/catching. Gray couldn't do anything but inside runs and offered no legitimate outside run or home run threat making it incredibly easy to set up defenses against him. Matt Jones Murray can't do anything but outside runs and have 0 threat on inside runs. And Starks is an incredibly bad inside and outside runner.

Unlike all those RBs, Blount can do it all. He's clearly better at hitting home runs and busting out on outside runs than he is at forcing the ball into the LOS and getting consistent yards. But, as a pure runner, Blount is pretty well rounded which, is why he has been a valuable piece of our offense the past couple years.

Obviously, he has a very specific skillset in that he needs good upfront blocking and/or open space to get his speed going. This is the issue that teams, other than the Patriots, have had with him as an RB; they can't find a way to setup the opponent's defenses to give Blount space to gain speed. Just like Green-Ellis found all his success in pounding the ball into the line of scrimmage, Blount wins beyond the LOS.

Looking at Blount's stats at an aggregate level doesn't give any insight into what he can bring to the offense. He can break big plays, can (though not as well as others) consistently move the ball downfield, and opens up the passing game as defenses have to load the box against him.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saying Blount's inability to run against good defenses or in the playoffs is irrelevant is crazy to me. Maybe, in a world of unlimited roster spots, that's acceptable. But we know the team will carry one primary "runner" and one primary "receiver" RB. If the runner sucks at running unless the conditions to succeed are just right, that's a liability and a waste of a spot.

Blount has no value as anything other than being the de facto "running down RB". He sucks in the pass game and doesn't play ST other than a random kick return once a year. If he's on the team, he's the guy who will be relied on to get 150-300 carries. He's shown that he is at best average and mostly sucks in the role over a large sample.

He is either the starting guy and primary ball carrier or there's no role for him. Hopefully, they move on. There is so little that he does well that I can't imagine it will be hard to find a guy who has similar value, if even with a different skill set and finding an upgrade can't be too difficult.
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patsfan06


Joined: 19 Nov 2010
Posts: 5936
Location: Waltham
PostPosted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting note:

Quote:
Adam Schefter‏Verified account
@AdamSchefter
Former Vikings running back Adrian Peterson will be taking his first free-agent visit Monday with the New England Patriots, per sources.


https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/848652153149411329
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mission27


Joined: 17 Jan 2008
Posts: 28314
Location: Boca Raton
PostPosted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

patsfan06 wrote:
Interesting note:

Quote:
Adam Schefter‏Verified account
@AdamSchefter
Former Vikings running back Adrian Peterson will be taking his first free-agent visit Monday with the New England Patriots, per sources.


https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/848652153149411329


You sorry yet Roger?
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MoJo63


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Donut wrote:
I was watching Brian Hill last night and he'd be a pretty good mid round RB. Seems to have good vision and is similar to the Lawfirm in how he always minimizes loss and gets a yard or two. Also doesn't fumble much(5 in 3 years 1 last year). And he has similar athleticism to Ridley and will be caught from behind on those long runs. Also just love contact. He also looks pretty decent running routes and reading blitz pickup. Awful hands though.


I just read a mock with the Pats taking him in RD 5, with the talent we have at pass catching RBs he may be worth a shot, IMO.
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bluemushrooms


Joined: 10 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We're all forgetting about Bolden who is still unsigned.

I'm hoping we resign him. Great special teamer and he can fill in as an emergency running or catching RB if needed.
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wpdougie2180


Joined: 02 Sep 2009
Posts: 38
PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bluemushrooms wrote:
We're all forgetting about Bolden who is still unsigned.

I'm hoping we resign him. Great special teamer and he can fill in as an emergency running or catching RB if needed.


Bolden re-signed today
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1ForTheThumb


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Howe tweeted yesterday (than followed up with a "it's viewed as a long shot" tweet) that Lynch is interested in joining the Patriots if the Raider's plan falls through.

Replacing Blount with Lynch? Sign me up.
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patsfan25


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1ForTheThumb wrote:
Howe tweeted yesterday (than followed up with a "it's viewed as a long shot" tweet) that Lynch is interested in joining the Patriots if the Raider's plan falls through.

Replacing Blount with Lynch? Sign me up.


I don't want that moron anywhere near the mid point of the country that eventually leads to the Patriots. Unfortunately for me, I have to reside in the same state as him.
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