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2017 Offseason thread 2: Shanny and Lynch
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48 1/2ers


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think 5-6 wins is where I think we hover around. But I'm with Rudy, I just want to see an improvement and bright spots to emerge that can look forward to using as building blocks for this team.

Like if our DLine with DeFo and AA become an imposing force. Hyde remains healthy and explodes for 1200+. Oline meshes well and allows Hoyer/anyone to have a solid season. Jimmie Ward takes command of the secondary and becomes one of the league's top defenders.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

48 1/2ers wrote:
I think 5-6 wins is where I think we hover around. But I'm with Rudy, I just want to see an improvement and bright spots to emerge that can look forward to using as building blocks for this team.

Like if our DLine with DeFo and AA become an imposing force. Hyde remains healthy and explodes for 1200+. Oline meshes well and allows Hoyer/anyone to have a solid season. Jimmie Ward takes command of the secondary and becomes one of the league's top defenders.



I'd love it if we could get our dominant run defense back. Even before Harbaugh arrived, we used to have a pretty stout run D, and then he came in, we got more ball control from the offense, and the defense became top 3 for a couple of years. I think getting solid run D this year would be a great sign of things to come. We have two first rounders on that d-line, and maybe a third one in april, and hopefully they can be a force. I'd love to have a fierce pass rush, but if not, at least a solid run D would be nice.

On offense, as I said.. competence. If we see poor execution and inaccurate passes, it's one thing. But I'm tired of the utter incompetence we've seen these last couple of years.
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big9erfan


Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
Forge wrote:
PapaShogun wrote:
AMG1713 wrote:
PapaShogun wrote:
Honestly I forgot Tartt was on the team.

So glad Baalke is gone.


He started the last 6 games of the season in place of Reid.

The fact that I don't think most people noticed any difference says a lot about Reid. He's really not that much better than Tartt.


Oh. I've forgotten most of last year already. Team was doo doo.


I don't think we are looking at being significantly better this upcoming year. If we win 5 games, I'm considering the season a wild success from that standpoint.


Given we were incredibly lucky to eek out a second win last year I think 5 would be a significant improvement. 3 or 4 more wins year over year looks pretty good to me. Make that 6 next year and then 3 or 4 better the year after that and there we go!


Right now, I'd peg us between 3 and 4 wins. Depends on the rookies though too. Just not a big increase in overall talent from the free agency perspective, so not much help there. But if we draft wisely and several of the picks are immediate decent contributor types, we could see a jump up to that 4-5 win range.


Better QB plus better coaching, on both sides of the ball, ought to be worth 2 or 3 wins at least. The WR group is improved and it looks to me like we've upgraded a few other spots. We'll have Armsted back and hopefully Bowman. Those two alone should improve our defense. Impact rookies are rare but we could still get some help from the draft. I see 3 or 4 wins as the bottom side of w potential range that goes from 3 to 6.


I do see the better coaching as a lock - that should give us at least one win more I think. I am not guaranteeing the better quarterback play. Kaep wasn't awful last year...inconsistent as all get out, but he wasn't the reason we were losing game (never understood the half splits though) and Hoyer isn't necessarily an upgrade overall. I mean, everyone can slam Kaep for his passing numbers and quarterback play, but Hoyer isn't that far off with regards to what he has done as a passer and he lacks the feet.

I actually don't know that the wide receiver group is much improved. Garcon is very underrated, so we are improved from that perspective, but the rest of the group is pretty much the same or worse. I mean, Patton for Goodwin is at best a lateral move, and I'm not even a Patton fan. Juice Check will help though. I think he's going to catch a ton of passes in this offense - I'd probably put the over / under at 45, which is just a ton fora fullback.

Armstead - well, big unknown there. Have no idea how that fit is going to work. He's the one player that I just have a hard time placing in this defense, so we shall see. And Bowman is Bowman, but it's not atypical for guys to not get back to their usual selves until the second year of their recovery on the Achilles. It's a tricky injury.


As you know from my previous discussions with you about this, the bolded for me is at best a neutral and could turn out to be a positive. I want a passer, not a runner playing the QB position! I don't know what constitutes "awful" in your mind, but I've already listed for you in previous posts the fact Kap was in the lower third of starting QBs in a lot, if not most, passing stats. So if that's merely bad as opposed to awful then OK I understand. I'm also not sure what "not far off" means when comparing the two. Hoyer's 2016 was better in virtually every passing stat the NFL tracks. So I'd say definitely an upgrade. FWIW, 2016 stats:

Completion %: Kap= 59%, Hoyer = 67%
YPA: Kap = 6.8, Hoyer = 7.2
Passing Yards: Kap = 2214, Hoyer = 2391 (factored up for same number of passes)
Passing Yards per Game: Kap = 181, Hoyer = 241
TD/Int Ratio: Kap = 4 to 1; Hoyer = Can't calculate threw zero ints in 200 attempts
QB rating: Kap = 90.7, Hoyer = 98.0

And for all that talk about feet, I think this one is pretty telling
Sacks: Kap = 36, Hoyer = 6.6 (factored up to same number of attempts)
Sack Yardage Lost: Kap = 207, Hoyer = 30 (factored up to same number of attempts)
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Forge


Joined: 19 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:


As you know from my previous discussions with you about this, the bolded for me is at best a neutral and could turn out to be a positive. I want a passer, not a runner playing the QB position! I don't know what constitutes "awful" in your mind, but I've already listed for you in previous posts the fact Kap was in the lower third of starting QBs in a lot, if not most, passing stats. So if that's merely bad as opposed to awful then OK I understand. I'm also not sure what "not far off" means when comparing the two. Hoyer's 2016 was better in virtually every passing stat the NFL tracks. So I'd say definitely an upgrade. FWIW, 2016 stats:

Completion %: Kap= 59%, Hoyer = 67%
YPA: Kap = 6.8, Hoyer = 7.2
Passing Yards: Kap = 2214, Hoyer = 2391 (factored up for same number of passes)
Passing Yards per Game: Kap = 181, Hoyer = 241
TD/Int Ratio: Kap = 4 to 1; Hoyer = Can't calculate threw zero ints in 200 attempts
QB rating: Kap = 90.7, Hoyer = 98.0

And for all that talk about feet, I think this one is pretty telling
Sacks: Kap = 36, Hoyer = 6.6 (factored up to same number of attempts)
Sack Yardage Lost: Kap = 207, Hoyer = 30 (factored up to same number of attempts)


Sorry, big, you know I like you, but this is such an awful take. You have a habit of doing this and Y2 has called you out on it multiple times - trying to skew things to fit your narrative.

Using a 5 game sample from Hoyer in 2016 to justify? Please, come on. How about as a career when the sample size is more relevant? Last year was by far his most efficient season ever, and it was done over an extremely small sample size.

Career -

Completion percentage: Kaepernick, 59.8%, Hoyer 59.5%
Touchdown percentage; Kaepernick, 4.3%, Hoyer 3.7%
Interception percentage: Kapernick, 1.8%, Hoyer 2.0%
Yards per attempt: Kaepernick, 7.3, Hoyer 7.2.
Career rating: Kaepernick, 88.9, Hoyer 84.4%.

But please, by all means...that 5 game stretch last year is more indicative of anything over the course of their entire career.

Then you're going to what, prorate a stretch the likes of what Hoyer has never had in his career to project what he would have done over the course of an entire season? Yeah, that works.

And you can't just ignore the feet. That's part of Kaep's game, and it would be effective in an offense. Especially when their career efficiency ratings are pretty similar. That would be like downgrading a running back who is very good out of the backfield and not wanting to count what they do in the passing game. I don't care how a quarterback gets it done - I want to score points. In almost ever season, he was adding at least 400 yards rushing...last time I checked, picking up a first down on 3rd and 8 running was just as effective as throwing for it.

But you got me on the sack rate. Hoyers is about half of Kaepernicks. over their careers, which isn't small, that's for sure.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian Hoyer, over his last 17 games:

4,051 YDS, 25 TD, 7 INT, 93.4 RATING


I got that stat from Eric Branch. I don't know how many attempts, and over how many seasons he got that, but if it's a trend in his play, I'll take it. Some QBs are late bloomers. I'm not saying Hoyer is the next Rich Gannon, but if he can be more consistent than Kap (Dr Jekyll in the first half and Mr Hyde in the second), and can be a good influence in installing Kylo's O, I'd say we upgraded.
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Forge


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
Brian Hoyer, over his last 17 games:

4,051 YDS, 25 TD, 7 INT, 93.4 RATING


I got that stat from Eric Branch. I don't know how many attempts, and over how many seasons he got that, but if it's a trend in his play, I'll take it. Some QBs are late bloomers. I'm not saying Hoyer is the next Rich Gannon, but if he can be more consistent than Kap (Dr Jekyll in the first half and Mr Hyde in the second), and can be a good influence in installing Kylo's O, I'd say we upgraded.


569 attempts it should be. Depends on if he is counting games or starts - if it's games, it's 2 seasons. IF its starts, it's over 2+. His 14 games prior to that? 55.3%, 3300 yards, 12 touchdowns, 13 picks...in Kyle's system.

Also, lets not forget that the stretch he is quoting doesn't contain one game - 15/34, 136 yards, 4 int. Add that game in to that stretch, make it 18 games (since it happened right in the middle), and it does bring them down a bit.

I'm not saying your wrong, but you can't cherry pick stats from a 5 game stretch and isolated sample size to try and prove the point. That's just not going to fly.

And I'm not ready to say that this is an upgrade on the field. There are plenty of reasons why this could be a better move for us than having to keep Kaepernick even if at best it's a lateral move. The off field stuff. The animosity. I mean, everyone gets that, including me. On the field, his familiarity with the system helps. But based on what they do on the field, and have thus far in their career, this is lateral at best right now. I'm not even saying it was the wrong move to leave Kaep and head in a different direction - most know I'm not a Kaep fan. Was it a needed move? Yeah, probably. The divorce from Kaep should have been done even earlier. But people are acting like he's the worst quarterback to ever see the field when in truth it's really more about both parties just needing a change.

Given the lack of talent on the field last year, Kaep's numbers are pretty good. 4:1 td to picks? That's strong. Only 4 picks total? There's nothing wrong with that. Besides his inconsistency last year, there really was nothing wrong whatsoever with the way Kaep played. He was fine. He was a stopgap starter.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do need to add that Hoyer also has a considerable advantage in fumbles. Early in his career, most remember that Kaep had some issues with center/quarterback exchanges, plus the running bit of his game, so fumbles are nothing new for him.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Hoyer sucks, I don't really mind. It will give us a shot at one of the top QBs next year. Hoyer is meant to be a back-up, in my mind. He signed for back-up value. If he had signed for 14m a year, okay, I'd be very concerned. But at 6m per, I don't care what he did last year, or during his season under Kylo in Cleveland.
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Forge


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
If Hoyer sucks, I don't really mind. It will give us a shot at one of the top QBs next year. Hoyer is meant to be a back-up, in my mind. He signed for back-up value. If he had signed for 14m a year, okay, I'd be very concerned. But at 6m per, I don't care what he did last year, or during his season under Kylo in Cleveland.


And I 100% agree with you. This is all temporary. Hoyer, Kaepernick, Cutler...it simply didn't matter who was the quarterback this year. You could literally throw them all in a bucket and pick one out. They are all stop gap quarterbacks, not the future, and the on field production overall is probably going to be roughly equivalent for the team. Thats why I have never cared who our quarterback was going to be this year (so long as it wasn't coming from the #2 pick overall)

All I'm saying is that I detest the hate and hyperbole that gets thrown around with some stuff like that. Like I said, I'm not even a Kaep fan lol. I was on the Alex side of the coin! Yes, we needed a change and it was better for all involved if we divorced. But it's weird to think that Kaep was just this horrific quarterback who was never effective or is somehow less effective than Brian Hoyer over his career. I even get the argument that hey, we've dealt with this running bs for 4 years now, I want a real quarterback...well, Hoyer doesn't run, so we are happy. But it blinds people to the fact that just because he's a "pocket passer", that his actual passing throughout his career has been roughly on par with Kaepernicks. Just because he's a "pocket passer" doesn't make him a better passer (the funny thing is that I've defended Hoyer before and I think he's been pretty underrated throughout his career, so I'm not trying to knock him down here)
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:


As you know from my previous discussions with you about this, the bolded for me is at best a neutral and could turn out to be a positive. I want a passer, not a runner playing the QB position! I don't know what constitutes "awful" in your mind, but I've already listed for you in previous posts the fact Kap was in the lower third of starting QBs in a lot, if not most, passing stats. So if that's merely bad as opposed to awful then OK I understand. I'm also not sure what "not far off" means when comparing the two. Hoyer's 2016 was better in virtually every passing stat the NFL tracks. So I'd say definitely an upgrade. FWIW, 2016 stats:

Completion %: Kap= 59%, Hoyer = 67%
YPA: Kap = 6.8, Hoyer = 7.2
Passing Yards: Kap = 2214, Hoyer = 2391 (factored up for same number of passes)
Passing Yards per Game: Kap = 181, Hoyer = 241
TD/Int Ratio: Kap = 4 to 1; Hoyer = Can't calculate threw zero ints in 200 attempts
QB rating: Kap = 90.7, Hoyer = 98.0

And for all that talk about feet, I think this one is pretty telling
Sacks: Kap = 36, Hoyer = 6.6 (factored up to same number of attempts)
Sack Yardage Lost: Kap = 207, Hoyer = 30 (factored up to same number of attempts)


Sorry, big, you know I like you, but this is such an awful take. You have a habit of doing this and Y2 has called you out on it multiple times - trying to skew things to fit your narrative.

Using a 5 game sample from Hoyer in 2016 to justify? Please, come on. How about as a career when the sample size is more relevant? Last year was by far his most efficient season ever, and it was done over an extremely small sample size.

Career -

Completion percentage: Kaepernick, 59.8%, Hoyer 59.5%
Touchdown percentage; Kaepernick, 4.3%, Hoyer 3.7%
Interception percentage: Kapernick, 1.8%, Hoyer 2.0%
Yards per attempt: Kaepernick, 7.3, Hoyer 7.2.
Career rating: Kaepernick, 88.9, Hoyer 84.4%.

But please, by all means...that 5 game stretch last year is more indicative of anything over the course of their entire career.

Then you're going to what, prorate a stretch the likes of what Hoyer has never had in his career to project what he would have done over the course of an entire season? Yeah, that works.

And you can't just ignore the feet. That's part of Kaep's game, and it would be effective in an offense. Especially when their career efficiency ratings are pretty similar. That would be like downgrading a running back who is very good out of the backfield and not wanting to count what they do in the passing game. I don't care how a quarterback gets it done - I want to score points. In almost ever season, he was adding at least 400 yards rushing...last time I checked, picking up a first down on 3rd and 8 running was just as effective as throwing for it.

But you got me on the sack rate. Hoyers is about half of Kaepernicks. over their careers, which isn't small, that's for sure.


Sorry, but I don't intentionally try to skew my story. When it comes to QBs too many people want to look at a guy's whole career when it's only the recent history that matters. I really couldn't care less what a QB did some time ago in his career. Yes, I faileld to call out the fact that last year's stats were based on a small sample size, but then again I wasn't really trying to prove anything, only to explain why my perspective is that I think he will turn out to be an upgrade. I could have just said "I think he'll be an upgrade" but instead tried to offer some support. I fully agree it was meager support. I don't think much of Hoyer, but I think very little of Kap. So to me it would be hard for him not to turn out to be an upgrade.

And you and I will never agree on the value of Kap's running. To you it's a very positive thing. To me is quite distinctly, and TO ME quite evidently, a negative. There are lots of guys on teams that can run the ball, but only one that can pass it. Kap's running often represent yards that others could have gotten running especially if we had a better passing game so that defenses had to play us honestly instead of loading up the box with little fear of anything other than Kap running like a mad chicken around the end for a gain. In the end it represent a failure of our passing game and his running in no way makes up for that failure. No team can be successful with an inadequate passing attack. It is not coincidence that there is clear inverse realtationship between guys considered the best QBs in the game and the best runners in the game.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
but you can't cherry pick stats

...

4:1 td to picks? That's strong. Only 4 picks total?


Of course those 4 ints yielded an int rate that was by far the lowest of his career, in fact an abberation compared to the rest of his career. And they happen to be the one and only good passing stat he had. Ints is a stat that by its nature is always a small sample size. To raise his completion percentage a few points he'd have to complete a lot more passes. But just two more ints would increase his interception rate by 50%. Aside from that one stat, and its positive impact on his quarterback rating, all the rest of his stats were indeed pretty awful compared to other qbs. There's just no objective way to to argue he had a pretty good year. If you want to compare him to guys that didn't play or shouldn't have been playing then he was passable. As a starter he was one of the worst starting QBs in the league.
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PapaShogun


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
PapaShogun wrote:
AMG1713 wrote:
PapaShogun wrote:
Honestly I forgot Tartt was on the team.

So glad Baalke is gone.


He started the last 6 games of the season in place of Reid.

The fact that I don't think most people noticed any difference says a lot about Reid. He's really not that much better than Tartt.


Oh. I've forgotten most of last year already. Team was doo doo.


I don't think we are looking at being significantly better this upcoming year. If we win 5 games, I'm considering the season a wild success from that standpoint.
Oh I know. I have us going 4-12. Hopefully good enough to get Darnold.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FWIW I was able to get a more representative example than just last year's 6 games. Turns out that in 2015 and 2016 combined Kap started 19 games in which he threw 575 passes, Hoyer started 14 games in which he threw 569 passes. That's a much better sample, and coincidentally just about the same number of passes so no "extending for ... " is necessary.

Completion %: Kap - 59.1%, Hoyer - 62.9
YPA: Kap - 6.7. Hoyer - 7.1
Passing Yards: Kap - 3856, Hoyer - 4051
Passing Yards per Game: Kap - 184 , Hoyer - 238
TD/Int Ratio: Kap - 22/9 (2.4), Hoyer - 25/7b (3.6)
QB Rating: Kap - 85. Hoyer - 94
Sacks: Kap - 64, Hoyer - 29
Sack Yardage: Kap - 373, Hoyer - 203

So there you go. Over all of 2015 and 2016 they each managed to get in about one season's worth of play and all the number still favor Hoyer, not as dramatically, but still it's all of them not a "cherry picked" one. Prior to 2015? I don't care. To reiterate - I'm not a fan of Hoyer and don't expect much. I just think he'll be better than Kap, and I think his performance over the past two years gives me hope that maybe that will prove to be the case. Kap was a bottom third of starting QBs, and IMHO not overly close to making it into the middle third. I think Hoyer in this system could approach making it into the bottom of the second third. Either way, not worth arguing about. He's our place holder till we get our franchise QB.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
If Hoyer sucks, I don't really mind. It will give us a shot at one of the top QBs next year. Hoyer is meant to be a back-up, in my mind. He signed for back-up value. If he had signed for 14m a year, okay, I'd be very concerned. But at 6m per, I don't care what he did last year, or during his season under Kylo in Cleveland.


This was my exact feeling when we signed him instead of getting Cousins or even a guy like Cutler.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PapaShogun wrote:
Forge wrote:
PapaShogun wrote:
AMG1713 wrote:
PapaShogun wrote:
Honestly I forgot Tartt was on the team.

So glad Baalke is gone.


He started the last 6 games of the season in place of Reid.

The fact that I don't think most people noticed any difference says a lot about Reid. He's really not that much better than Tartt.


Oh. I've forgotten most of last year already. Team was doo doo.


I don't think we are looking at being significantly better this upcoming year. If we win 5 games, I'm considering the season a wild success from that standpoint.
Oh I know. I have us going 4-12. Hopefully good enough to get Darnold.


Darnold is going first overall. 4 wins isn't going to get us the number 1 overall pick.
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