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2017 QB Thread - Version II
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:21 pm    Post subject: 2017 QB Thread - Version II Reply with quote

Go at it 100 more pages.
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IDOG_det


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IDOG_det wrote:
PAW wrote:
Watson will be a 10 year NFL starter. People who question his intelligence and ability to read defenses don't realize all of the stuff he does presnap based on the defense.
A looooooooooot of the passing concepts for Clemson are pre-snap reads like you mention. Though, it isn't necessarily always a "read" because it's not always based on a predetermined key, sometimes it's just because that's the matchup Watson likes. Most of the time when you see Watson "lock in" on Mike Williams and throw him a deep ball or a back shoulder throw, it is based on some pre-snap decision. Watson will have a playside concept he can read and then Mike Williams alone on the opposite side. If he likes the matchup on the playside then he reads that side of the field. If he likes the matchup with Mike Williams, then he looks his way instead (then he's reading the release off the line and whether to throw it deep or throw it back-shoulder).

The passing game for Clemson doesn't have a ton of traditional coverage-beaters, but they do run a lot of man beaters and high-low concepts. They do have some coverage beaters worked into the playbook, but for the most part they are simplified. The offense isn't really based around the passing concepts, instead it's based around tempo, running the ball, and taking shots (often on some sort of play action). Watson will likely have some struggles in the NFL running concepts he hasn't yet to run, though if he lands in a situation where it is tailored to him and tailored to let him grow, then he will be fine.

Still relevant.

Yes he reads the defense, but his reads are simplified to make the offense easier to run so they can run the offense fast. He does a great job of making pre-snap reads, but he isn't asked to read much post-snap. His reads post-snap are limited to pretty basic things. He is still making post-snap reads, but they aren't very complex so we don't have film of him executing a play where he has to make a complex decision after the snap. NFL teams will bring him in on a visit and run him through the plays they think he may struggle with and determine how he will handle it from that.

Quarterbacks from "spread offenses" struggle to perform well in the NFL because in the NFL you need to consistently make the right decision on something very complex (and it all happens in about 2 seconds). Spread offenses essentially make it so QB's don't have to make a decision by making things really simple and easy for them. Clemson runs a "spread offense" but it isn't designed just to make things easy for the QB, they do run some plays that force Watson into making a decision. Watson can execute simplified decisions at a very high level, which is a positive. His biggest struggle should come in making complex decisions because he really doesn't have much experience there yet.
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IDOG_det wrote:
IDOG_det wrote:
PAW wrote:
Watson will be a 10 year NFL starter. People who question his intelligence and ability to read defenses don't realize all of the stuff he does presnap based on the defense.
A looooooooooot of the passing concepts for Clemson are pre-snap reads like you mention. Though, it isn't necessarily always a "read" because it's not always based on a predetermined key, sometimes it's just because that's the matchup Watson likes. Most of the time when you see Watson "lock in" on Mike Williams and throw him a deep ball or a back shoulder throw, it is based on some pre-snap decision. Watson will have a playside concept he can read and then Mike Williams alone on the opposite side. If he likes the matchup on the playside then he reads that side of the field. If he likes the matchup with Mike Williams, then he looks his way instead (then he's reading the release off the line and whether to throw it deep or throw it back-shoulder).

The passing game for Clemson doesn't have a ton of traditional coverage-beaters, but they do run a lot of man beaters and high-low concepts. They do have some coverage beaters worked into the playbook, but for the most part they are simplified. The offense isn't really based around the passing concepts, instead it's based around tempo, running the ball, and taking shots (often on some sort of play action). Watson will likely have some struggles in the NFL running concepts he hasn't yet to run, though if he lands in a situation where it is tailored to him and tailored to let him grow, then he will be fine.

Still relevant.

Yes he reads the defense, but his reads are simplified to make the offense easier to run so they can run the offense fast. He does a great job of making pre-snap reads, but he isn't asked to read much post-snap. His reads post-snap are limited to pretty basic things. He is still making post-snap reads, but they aren't very complex so we don't have film of him executing a play where he has to make a complex decision after the snap. NFL teams will bring him in on a visit and run him through the plays they think he may struggle with and determine how he will handle it from that.

Quarterbacks from "spread offenses" struggle to perform well in the NFL because in the NFL you need to consistently make the right decision on something very complex (and it all happens in about 2 seconds). Spread offenses essentially make it so QB's don't have to make a decision by making things really simple and easy for them. Clemson runs a "spread offense" but it isn't designed just to make things easy for the QB, they do run some plays that force Watson into making a decision. Watson can execute simplified decisions at a very high level, which is a positive. His biggest struggle should come in making complex decisions because he really doesn't have much experience there yet.


Great post. Wink
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BleedTheClock


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clemsons offense is very similar to a high school offense. He's going to have to develop a ton of skills going forward that he was not asked to do at Clemson. It doesn't mean he can't do it...but to assume he can is pretty optimistic. We'll see how he progresses. If he can handle a pro style offense, it will be brand new skills he's acquired.

He throws against straight zones, most of the time, vanilla. There is man on the backside of their concepts, but those reads are even easier to pick up than zone. Especially when you just tag Williams with a fade or comeback and always throw that concept. It's tough to crucify a prospect for doing great things in college with that offense, but it isn't preparing him for the NFL at all. Very tough to project spread QBs because of this. Especially when we don't have access to interviews and brain-picking of these guys. All we really have to go on is the tape. And there aren't a lot of reps that mimic NFL football within the Deshaun Watson tapes.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some great posts to start off this thread. Kudos, guys.
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I noted in my summer review of Watson that he scanned the entire field a fair amount. I wasn't impressed with his speed or quality of decision making but he was at least doing it as a sophomore. I expected that to get better. But this year he was picking one side of the field and doing nothing else. Regardless of why that happened I was disappointed by that.
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Some great posts to start off this thread. Kudos, guys.

It won't be long before the monkey's come in and start hurling their poop.
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Rich7sena


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something that isn't discussed enough when evaluating prospects is player X won't be a "spread" QB after his rookie season in the NFL. You really have to project much further out. Yes, certain systems don't translate as well to the NFL and sometimes players suffer early in their career, but we have to look at prospects in a macro view. If they show the capability to process the field, move in the pocket, make good/quick decisions, and deliver an accurate ball, they should have success regardless of what system they come from.

This year, all of the top QBs play in a non traditional systems and will have to be asked to do much more in the NFL and that's not going to change in the near future. NFL coaches should also adapt. We saw how beneficial it was for Prescott to land on not only a fertile roster, but with a coaching staff who identified his strengths and allowed him to play to them. This doesn't get mentioned a lot, but Prescott - who came out of a non traditional offense - threw 85% of his passes out of shotgun this season. In contrast, Matt Ryan threw about 60% from shogun this year.
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BleedTheClock


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But Watson doesn't deliver accurate passes consistently. With tight coverage, the ball sails especially in the intermediate range. Teams typically concede the underneath stuff against spreads, which creates no brainer easy throws. Now you can't blame Watson for taking the simple checkdown, but he won't get those cheap easy ones in the NFL. I always look to see deep outs and comeback throws against tight coverage to see if QBs can make those throws. Watson struggles to make those throws routinely. NFL DBs play tight man coverage and force you to work outside in. They'll concede the deep out breaking routes because they are hard throws to make for NFL QBs. I could see Watson really struggling to get the football out there, as I've seen him miss several times on those throws.

But as I said, he can become a great player. He just hasn't done those things in college. Too much projection to fee comfortable making a judgment on his success. That's why I wouldn't take him until R4ish. It could bite me...Watson could be great, but I'd rather go with a safer selection with less projection involved.

And take my QB evals with a grain of salt...I struggle with these QB evals much more than other positions.
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G08


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BleedTheClock wrote:
But Watson doesn't deliver accurate passes consistently. With tight coverage, the ball sails especially in the intermediate range. Teams typically concede the underneath stuff against spreads, which creates no brainer easy throws. Now you can't blame Watson for taking the simple checkdown, but he won't get those cheap easy ones in the NFL. I always look to see deep outs and comeback throws against tight coverage to see if QBs can make those throws. Watson struggles to make those throws routinely. NFL DBs play tight man coverage and force you to work outside in. They'll concede the deep out breaking routes because they are hard throws to make for NFL QBs. I could see Watson really struggling to get the football out there, as I've seen him miss several times on those throws.

But as I said, he can become a great player. He just hasn't done those things in college. Too much projection to fee comfortable making a judgment on his success. That's why I wouldn't take him until R4ish. It could bite me...Watson could be great, but I'd rather go with a safer selection with less projection involved.

And take my QB evals with a grain of salt...I struggle with these QB evals much more than other positions.


Best I can find for you based on 501 attempts this season:

Outs - 57/76 (75%) with an average depth of 8.4 yards downfield
Comebacks - 2/7 (29) with an average depth of 10.1 yards

I believe another poster mentioned he was ranked 4th or 6th in the nation for passes 20+ yards downfield.
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My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


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jrry32


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alright, I'm finally making an effort to watch these QBs this weekend. Here's my first evaluation:
DeShaun Watson
Strengths: Watson possesses a NFL ready frame with adequate height at 6'2" 220 and appears to have large hands. I haven't noticed any issues with ball security (big hands and/or strong grip); in fact, I saw him hold onto a few balls that would have been a fumble for most QBs. Watson is a legitimate dual threat passer. I would ballpark his speed at around a 4.6 40. He's not an incredible athletic specimen, but he's very shifty and agile which is better for a QB in my mind. That makes him a dangerous runner and a pain in the arse to tackle. His combination of agility and strength makes him a difficult QB to get to the ground.

As a passer, Watson possesses adequate arm strength. He doesn't have what I'd call a strong arm, but he can make all the throws necessary in the NFL. Watson also throws with tremendous touch, which makes him very effective working the intermediate range against zone coverage. One of Watson's greatest weapons in college was the back-shoulder throw. He often threw it with perfect timing and accuracy. Watson appears to make quality pre-snap reads and gets his unit into the correct positions. He also does a nice job of identifying the hot receiver when blitzed. You can also see that Watson has worked to become more deceptive with his eyes. Finally, Watson does a great job of setting his feet before throwing.

In terms of intangibles, Watson displays a high football IQ, toughness on the field (both mental and physical), and a drive to win. He's poised and in control. Watson led a number of game winning drives and never struggled with rising to the occasion in clutch moments. He seems like a leader and a student of the game.

Weaknesses: Watson isn't a natural pocket passer at this stage in his development. He doesn't feel pressure well, doesn't have great instincts in the pocket, and drops his eyes at times to watch the rush. Watson often operated from a clean pocket and didn't show off the footwork or natural feel for manipulating the pocket and creating space without leaving his stance. Watson's preference was to scramble when he felt pressure. He too often didn't feel the pressure coming. His instincts and footwork in the pocket need a lot of work.

As a thrower, Watson's lower body mechanics need a lot of work. He works from a skinny base when sitting in the pocket. This causes his stride length to be extremely inconsistent. You can often judge the accuracy of Watson's throw by looking at his stride length. When he's sound, he's generally accurate. When he's understriding or overstriding, Watson's accuracy becomes scattershot (especially on deep balls; he was not an accurate deep ball thrower). Another big issue I noticed is that Watson's accuracy is quite poor when he doesn't set his feet. This is problematic because Watson's throwing base causes him to take an extra split second to get his feet set before throwing. Watson also has a tendency to wait until he sees it to throw it. He anticipates it at times, but I'd like to see more consistency with it.

In terms of mental acuity, I do agree with previous posters. Watson often only reads half the field. I won't go quite as far as Calhoun because I do think he read the full field at times this year (not often, though). But Watson had a tendency to only read half the field and force passes. His decision making was inconsistent and seemed to be a result of him being caught by surprise post-snap after predetermining his throw.

Overall: For Watson, the key at the NFL level will be pass protection. I think Watson will do quite well if he can operate out of a clean pocket for much of the game (or only face 1 rusher at a time). However, if Watson is behind a leaky OL, I think he's going to struggle mightily as a rookie. Watson has not yet learned how to manipulate the pocket using instinct and skill. He often drops his eyes and relies on his athleticism to escape the rush. When he's hemmed into the pocket, this produces bad results. The pressure will also magnify his accuracy problems because he'll start speeding up his throws which will result in him not taking the time set his feet. Watson's footwork was a bit deliberate in college, but his pass protection gave him time to set his feet. If he doesn't have that time at the NFL level, it'll be a real problem.

Ultimately, I think Watson is similar to Tyrod Taylor. He's going to have some accuracy issues and some pocket presence issues. But he's an athletic QB who can make things happen and can throw the ball well enough to be a realistic threat. Personally, I think he'd do quite well on the Bills. Keep that offense run first. Continue to build up that OL. Let Watson work with Sammy Watkins, Charles Clay, and Robert Woods. He should do well. The one thing I think could ruin Watson's career is if he ends up on a bad team.

Why? Because when a QB loses confidence in pass protection, they speed up their decision making. This results in them rushing throws without setting their feet, dropping their eyes to watch the rush, and forcing throws to predetermined targets. These are all things that I think would magnify Watson's flaws.

Grade: 2nd round (But I won't blame the RIGHT team for taking him in Round 1 due to how important the QB position is)

Ideal Landing Spot: Buffalo Bills
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G08


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
For Watson, the key at the NFL level will be pass protection. I think Watson will do quite well if he can operate out of a clean pocket for much of the game (or only face 1 rusher at a time). However, if Watson is behind a leaky OL, I think he's going to struggle mightily as a rookie. Watson has not yet learned how to manipulate the pocket using instinct and skill. He often drops his eyes and relies on his athleticism to escape the rush. When he's hemmed into the pocket, this produces bad results. The pressure will also magnify his accuracy problems because he'll start speeding up his throws which will result in him not taking the time set his feet. Watson's footwork was a bit deliberate in college, but his pass protection gave him time to set his feet. If he doesn't have that time at the NFL level, it'll be a real problem.


Great stuff -- agree 100%. I'll add that having targets with size and an innate ability to attack the ball in the air will greatly aid his transition (Alshon Jeffery for example).
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My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


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BleedTheClock


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So does SF take a QB @2? It seems like a foregone conclusion that pick #2 will be one of these guys. SF would probably like to trade down, but whoever comes up to 2 would probably be doing so for a QB.

I think Kizer is going to go #2. I'd personally take Trubisky, but I have a feeling that people are going to fall in love with the physical tools of Kizer, given all of the guys at the top have flaws. Go with the biggest piece of clay type move.

Kizer @2 to SF, Trubisky to NYJ @6, Watson to ARI @13, Kaaya to HOU @25.

All will be overdrafted, but I think all 4 go R1. Chicago gets Mahomes in R2.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BleedTheClock wrote:
So does SF take a QB @2? It seems like a foregone conclusion that pick #2 will be one of these guys. SF would probably like to trade down, but whoever comes up to 2 would probably be doing so for a QB.

I think Kizer is going to go #2. I'd personally take Trubisky, but I have a feeling that people are going to fall in love with the physical tools of Kizer, given all of the guys at the top have flaws. Go with the biggest piece of clay type move.

Kizer @2 to SF, Trubisky to NYJ @6, Watson to ARI @13, Kaaya to HOU @25.

All will be overdrafted, but I think all 4 go R1. Chicago gets Mahomes in R2.


I think you're trying to force QBs based on needs. NFL teams have proven in the past that they'll pass on QBs (even when they don't have one) if they aren't high on them.
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REDandPEWTER


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep. Cleveland passed on the opportunity to take wentz last year whether you or anyone thinks it was smart or not. I still don't think he's an elite guy philly should have traded up for.

This is either going to replicate the 2011 draft where everyone panicked and over drafted qbs or the 2013 draft where teams avoided reaching.

If I hs to say, only one guy is worth a first round pick and that's dashaun Watson. I think he can come in and play on a team that has pieces around him and in need of a qb. Houston for example or buffalo.

I'm really not a fan of Tribuski. I think there's more to see but I can see a Blaine gabbert type effect.

Kizer and mahomes intrigue me. I like Kizers talent but his lack of consistency and inconsistency in looking defenders off and staring down guys remind me of Josh Freeman before the drugs. The ability to make great throws on a dime are a plus but he misses easy ones to often. He's got first round talent physically but consistency drops him to day two.

Mahomes is going day two for me and i think he's got some upside. The offense is a question mark but college runs too much of the air raid and spread. He's accurate big strong armed qb. Derek Carr adjusted to an air raid offense.

I like Kaaya but he may be limited to a west coast offense only type team. The Chiefs or niners might be fits for him in round 3.

How id rank them?
1. Watson- top 25 grade. Will probably be drafted higher due to value of the position.
- could go as high as 2 to San Fransisco. Won't fall past Houston.
Best landing spots? Houston or buffalo.
Prediction ? Buffalo at 10.

2. Kizer.
- round 2 grade. Potential to be over drafted due to value of position.
- could go as high as 12 to Cleveland
- best landing spot? Arizona. His best scenario is to get with a qb guru like Arians and sit behind Palmer for a year without expectations to be a starter right away.
- prediction? I don't think Cleveland reaches and folds under the pressure at 12.

3. Mahoomes
- round 2 grade. Could sneak in round 1 pending how his football iq grades out.
- could go as high as ? 25 and 27 to Houston or KC.
- best fit? Either Houston, KC or Arizona. I like all three situations because it gives him a bit to progress and sit behind current vets minus Brock. Brock is getting another year due to a dumb contract. I also like New Orleans for him.

Where I think he lands? Arizona round 2.

4. Kaaya
- grade? Round 2/3
- could go as high as early round 2. I don't believe he will sneak into round 1 at all.
- best fit? I like Kansas City for him. And I like New Orleans. Arizona I don't know he fits that vertical offense. New England is a sleeper if they trade garoppolo.

Prediction ? I think New Orleans takes him in round 2. Dome won't expose his arm strength which is good but not great. Smart pocket qb with accuracy and can sit behind brees.

5. Tribuski
Grade? Day 2.
- could go as high as? 12 to Cleveland
- best fit? I think Chicago, Kansas City, Jacksonville , San Diego all fit the day 3 potential development pick.

Prediction?
This is a tough one bc I don't think new HC Kyle Shanahan is dumb enough to take him at 2. I think he's a day 2 guy who isn't NFL ready. I think KC takes him in round 2 to end his slide.

FA signing?
- bears sign mike glennon
- SF trades for Jimmy Garoppolo.
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