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Overrated VS Underrated Prospects
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Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
Posts: 996
Location: Orion Spur
PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rich7sena wrote:
...

DeMarcus Walker gets little to no first round buzz. When I look at a n edge guy, my first question is, "can he hold up against the run." Walker is not only a playmaker in the run game, but can also set the edge by stacking and shedding. He's very rarely on the ground and, although he won a bunch using an inside swim move in 2016, has shown he can turn the corner with the best of them. His hand use is superb and he rarely gets locked in a stalemate with offensive linemen (if he's not fatigued). Lastly, the man is a beast when it comes to knocking passes down at the line.


He's seen as a LDE, so he won't ever get much first round buzz.

He also gets fatigued, as you point out, and the drafters have to separate what is fatigue and what is lack of effort. That will also keep him out of first round consideration.

Still, he's on my board and McDowell is not. Day 2 will yield a lot of starters this year, and even Day 3 should be loaded.
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Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Posts: 6845
PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Techbert wrote:
He's seen as a LDE, so he won't ever get much first round buzz.

He also gets fatigued, as you point out, and the drafters have to separate what is fatigue and what is lack of effort. That will also keep him out of first round consideration.

Still, he's on my board and McDowell is not. Day 2 will yield a lot of starters this year, and even Day 3 should be loaded.

I think he could play either DE spots. I'd like to see Walker's snap numbers, he seemingly never came off the field.
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Mind Character


Joined: 23 Dec 2016
Posts: 450
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.


Your Watt analysis is so wrong. Watt has outstanding flexibility throughout both his upper and lower body. And his instincts for a guy with such limited defensive experience are incredible. He reads and attacks blocking schemes like a NFL player despite the fact that he only has one year of starting experience in college and only has played defense for two years.


Agree to disagree.

The instincts I am talking about are the ability to without hesitation use one's eyes to wade through traffic with efficient angles as well as the ability to use keyed eyes and sense the runner coming to one's gap and redirect in time off the olineman for a TFL or run contain. Beigel and Schobert are better than Watt at those instinct skills; however, the physicality of Watt's hands and redirect is superior.

Where does Watt play? To me, he is not an great bender and does not have the required burst at the top of his rush to be an impact 34 OLB. He has exceptional hands and technique and the strong hands to redirect. These qualities would be great if he was bigger and could play 43DE, but these qualities without elite outside rush movement dynamics limit his upside as a 34OLB rush end.

At Wisconsin, in their scheme, they line up their 34OLB just like a 34 primary rush team. Watt can set the edge but has a hard time seeing the ball with good football instincts imo. It's hard to project where TJ watt should play, but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Playing him on the outside as a 34OLB works in the Big ten but won't translate to the pros imo.


This video is long, but it does a great job of illustrating why this analysis is off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evHQtX_10Uc

And that saves me the time of writing up a long post.

If you were to tell me that you doubt that Watt has the power and explosion to be a 3-4 OLB, fine. I disagree based on my projections, but it's a defensible stance.

However, claiming that Watt lacks flexibility and instincts just isn't accurate. That video will show you why. Of course, knowing the internet, my expectation is that you will choose not to watch it (partially because of how long it is). Again, that's fine. It's your life. But it shows video evidence refuting the points you're making about his flexibility and instincts.


I actually love Matt Waldman and RSP film room. Had not seen that video before. Saw the video and I am comfortable incorporating new information and admitting that I was wrong.

I generally agree with Matt on most occassions and even when I disagree, Matt is really thoughtful and one of the better prospect evaluators not commercially known by most. You're not going to like this but I think reframing and further explaining the language in our discussion reveals that we agree on a lot. At least that I agree with Matt and Kyle on a lot of the key points that you think I'm wrong on. Of course there are still some disagreements.



I think mostly we're two ships passing in the night but have one key disagreement. I think it comes down to two points


1. Getting Skinny/Small Body flexibility versus outside bend/burst rush flexibility. Matt and Kyle praised his ability to "get small" and flexibility in his shoulders to gap penetrate to the inside. In my post I emphasized this point when I said "...but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Matt and Kyle praise his inside rush and gap penetrating ability. They say getting small. I said getting skinny. Now, if you think he can win on the outside those skills help contribute to making a good 34OLB and that's their and your point. I don't think he can so those traits and skills translate to a 34ILB rush specialist a la Jamie Collins types that thrive off of getting skinny on stunts or inside gap penetration. Although not ideal, there is some value for those skills in as a 34ILB sub rush guy....at least IMO.

2. there is a difference to me between outside burst and bend rush flexibility (which I think Watt lacks) and general hip and body flexibility to get skinny on inside stunts/rush (which he has in spades and is special at). MAtt and Kyle said they like his outside rushes but more often were wowed by his inside moves. I am the same, but as he doesn't have the balance to bend and flatten (the balance was also questioned by Kyle) his ability to win in the league on the outside especially since he lacks explosiveness or ability to speed burst rush the edge again means he's limited as a 34 prospect.

On these previous points, I think I see things similar to Kyle and MAtt albeit disagreement on his ability to play outside. AND critically disagree with you and them on his hand strength and grip strength toward setting a hard edge. I've seen some tape that suggested he could hold up; but they make some compelling analysis as to that being a question mark.

Lastly, as to the instinct thing...for me there are key distinctions to make regarding "working through traffic through the line on an inside stunt/blitz" versus "working through traffic in pursuit of a ball carrier down the line.". Watt shows good instincts on the former, but really poor ones in pursuit. That's why I thought Schobert and Biegel had better instincts as when that position is suppose to pursue they don't get caught in the muck. In terms of instincts it takes to know when to get skinny and elusive on inside rush, Watt is good at that.

That at least clarifies our critical disagreements as there are some, but I think also highlights that we agree on more things as well in that Watt is instinctual but we may agree/disagree as to what those instincts refer to.

Watt's a great player and as a I said has an uncanny ability to get skinny and instincts on inside rush and gap penetration. Due to his deficient outside bend and burst explosiveness ability...he'll struggle being a full time 34OLB. Those rushing instincts might serve him well as a 34ILB sub rush specialist. Those were the general points I tried to make in my posts and I still feel that way.


I stand corrected. I respect the fact that you were willing to take the time to see the other side of the argument. Most people will not. I hear your criticisms. I understand them. I do not fully agree, but I understand where you're coming from.

I still contend that he has the flexibility to win the corner in the NFL. He's not Robert Quinn (not many are), but he has enough bend around the edge to get underneath OTs and use his hands to win.


He might be able to effectively win the corner. With his traits I wish he was bigger so he could play 43DE as he can win in a phone booth much like Robert Quinn, but the added space and movement beginning from the stand up position a la 34OLB positioning for a player without the edge burst and explosiveness makes it hard to consistently win the edge at the nfl level.

It will definitely be interesting to see what Watt becomes at the next level. Even if Watt doesn't have success at the next level doesn't mean your college trait assessment was wrong, and if he does have edge success I'll give you props.

With all that said, I have no idea where he ends up in the draft.
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(5/22/17) '18 QB1s: 1. Sam Darnold, 2. Luke Falk, 3. Josh Allen, 4. Josh Rosen, 5. Riley Ferguson, 6. Baker Mayfield / FS1s: 1. Armani Watts, 2. Godwin Igwebuike, 3. Jordan Whitehead / SS1: 1. Derwin James / CB1s: 1.T. McFadden, 2. M. Fitzpatrick
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Mind Character


Joined: 23 Dec 2016
Posts: 450
Location: N/a
PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rich7sena wrote:
Techbert wrote:
He's seen as a LDE, so he won't ever get much first round buzz.

He also gets fatigued, as you point out, and the drafters have to separate what is fatigue and what is lack of effort. That will also keep him out of first round consideration.

Still, he's on my board and McDowell is not. Day 2 will yield a lot of starters this year, and even Day 3 should be loaded.

I think he could play either DE spots. I'd like to see Walker's snap numbers, he seemingly never came off the field.


Really good point on the fatigue versus effort distinction. Really hard to tell on tape. Have to dig into the strength and straining coach and background stuff
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(5/22/17) '18 QB1s: 1. Sam Darnold, 2. Luke Falk, 3. Josh Allen, 4. Josh Rosen, 5. Riley Ferguson, 6. Baker Mayfield / FS1s: 1. Armani Watts, 2. Godwin Igwebuike, 3. Jordan Whitehead / SS1: 1. Derwin James / CB1s: 1.T. McFadden, 2. M. Fitzpatrick
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