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Overrated VS Underrated Prospects
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Mind Character


Joined: 23 Dec 2016
Posts: 470
Location: N/a
PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ozzy wrote:
Overrated
Vince Biegel OLB Wisconsin:
Great effort player but might be over drafted potentially, did not have a wildly productive year and was out played by his teammate TJ Watt who is a better overall prospect and is bigger. They have a great system defensively and are very hard for college teams to handle but just look at Joe Schobert last year. Some really liked him but despite his fine statistics he is not this demon pass rusher he showed at times in college. Biegel is tougher at the point of attack than Schobert, and maybe could play DE in the right situation but as a 3/4 OLB there are a lot of players more athletic and gifted than he is.

Underrated
Jordan Willis DE Kansas State:
Very productive senior season, could probably put on some more weight as well. Nice long frame, uses his arms well and can knife into the backfield consistently and rush on both shoulders.


Zach Johnson OG NDSU:
Be interesting how he does in the pre draft work, big powerful kid and could be a very interesting prospect at guard. Especially if he can show he can hang against the better competition.


Derrick Griffin WR/TE Texas Southern:
Athletically he is extremely interesting. Great run and jump athlete, too bad he was kicked off the football team this season. But with his skills he has shown on the basketball court and the football field, he has a ton of upside at WR or even TE, super run and jump athlete. Is not a basketball player who never played football, had success in both sports in college. Could blow up at the combine but needs to get his head on straight and show he is committed that is for sure.


Really good stuff, Ozzy. I agree with most of everything you said. I hear you on Orion Stewart being a highlight machine but not as consistent throughout the game.

Just watching the tape, you're right on Garrett. Effort was turned on and off. Ankle injuries suck, but it's not like it will be the only time he'll have to fight through injury in the league. He could get away with it in college, but would be taken advantage of in the pros.

Never heard of Derrick Griffin or Zach Johnson....Awesome! This is exactly why I wanted to start this thread. Will check them out.

Yeah, I didn't like Jordan Willis' play on the field. Nice looking athlete though.

Cam Sutton will be an impact starter at the next level imo.

The Biegel versus Watt debate is an interesting one. There system is amazing. As a Browns fan, we got Schobert so I definitely see your point as I watched Joe's tape last year. I think both Watt and Biegel are limited and will have a tough time being impact players at the next level just like Schobert. Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.
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Ozzy


Joined: 29 Sep 2008
Posts: 684
Location: Minnesota
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mind Character wrote:



Never heard of Derrick Griffin or Zach Johnson....Awesome! This is exactly why I wanted to start this thread. Will check them out.

Yeah, I didn't like Jordan Willis' play on the field. Nice looking athlete though.

Cam Sutton will be an impact starter at the next level imo.

The Biegel versus Watt debate is an interesting one. There system is amazing. As a Browns fan, we got Schobert so I definitely see your point as I watched Joe's tape last year. I think both Watt and Biegel are limited and will have a tough time being impact players at the next level just like Schobert. Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.
Schobert is ok but will not get playing time over Jamie Collins or even maybe Ogbah in the Browns 3/4. Shelton has been a disappointment in some ways considering how productive he was in college. Then again the talent and depth at linebackers are more important anyway in most 3/4 systems.




Here are some other guys I am surprised are not being talked about more.


Khalid Abdullah James Madison:
Love his change of direction ability, can really make people miss and has very good feet. Nice build overall and as a mid to late round pick could be a very nice addition. Talented player that had an awesome year this season.


Darius Hamilton Rutgers:
Like him, very productive player and is possibly a nice fit as a DE in a 3/4. Need to see how he does in the predraft work but could be a nice 3rd or 4th round pick if he works out well.


Deon Watson Idaho:
Extremely interesting prospect especially if he puts on some weight and is a pass catching tight end. Could be a nice late round pick and possibly could be a WR if he shows he has enough speed as well.


Anthony Wales Western Kentucky:
Had a great year, very good runner and should be a solid mid round pick. Can run hard and make big plays from the running back position. Was helped by a solid offensive line but was consistent running inside and outside almost all season.


Michael Roberts Toledo:
Had a solid year and is a big physical tight end, love his height and weight and is a solid pass catcher. Could really rise up the tight end boards potentially.


Erich Schneider Duke:
Love his wing span, huge kid and super long, needs to get stronger but if he can fill out some more could be a hell of a weapon potentially. Could be a steal late round pick.


Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse:
Physically is very impressive, nice strong receiver than had a great year in an offense that was not all that good. Really productive after the catch and showed a lot more ability than he did the seasons before. Be interesting how he works out in the pre draft combine.


Paul Davis Georgia Tech:
Kind of gets forgotten but is a very active linebacker that flows well and can get off blocks. Quick and impactful hitter, should be a nice mid round pick and could play in a 3/4 or 4/3 possibly, but would be better in a 3/4 I believe.


Barrett Burns App State:
Like his blocking ability at a lot, that alone will get him a shot at the next level. Still needs to show some more athletic ability in the passing game but with so many multiple TE formations he is a nice addition for his blocking for sure.
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Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
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Location: Orion Spur
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ozzy wrote:
...

Paul Davis Georgia Tech:
Kind of gets forgotten but is a very active linebacker that flows well and can get off blocks. Quick and impactful hitter, should be a nice mid round pick and could play in a 3/4 or 4/3 possibly, but would be better in a 3/4 I believe.
...


PJ's been a good college player. For the pros, PJ has size issues and is not a natural penetrator, which small linebackers better be or the big fast linemen on the next level will wash them out. I think he'd have to be inside in a 3/4, but I still don't see it.
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MWil23


Joined: 25 Aug 2006
Posts: 6433
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Techbert wrote:
Ozzy wrote:
...

Paul Davis Georgia Tech:
Kind of gets forgotten but is a very active linebacker that flows well and can get off blocks. Quick and impactful hitter, should be a nice mid round pick and could play in a 3/4 or 4/3 possibly, but would be better in a 3/4 I believe.
...


PJ has size issues and is not a natural penetrator



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Mind Character


Joined: 23 Dec 2016
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ozzy wrote:
Mind Character wrote:



Never heard of Derrick Griffin or Zach Johnson....Awesome! This is exactly why I wanted to start this thread. Will check them out.

Yeah, I didn't like Jordan Willis' play on the field. Nice looking athlete though.

Cam Sutton will be an impact starter at the next level imo.

The Biegel versus Watt debate is an interesting one. There system is amazing. As a Browns fan, we got Schobert so I definitely see your point as I watched Joe's tape last year. I think both Watt and Biegel are limited and will have a tough time being impact players at the next level just like Schobert. Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.
Schobert is ok but will not get playing time over Jamie Collins or even maybe Ogbah in the Browns 3/4. Shelton has been a disappointment in some ways considering how productive he was in college. Then again the talent and depth at linebackers are more important anyway in most 3/4 systems.




Here are some other guys I am surprised are not being talked about more.


Khalid Abdullah James Madison:
Love his change of direction ability, can really make people miss and has very good feet. Nice build overall and as a mid to late round pick could be a very nice addition. Talented player that had an awesome year this season.


Darius Hamilton Rutgers:
Like him, very productive player and is possibly a nice fit as a DE in a 3/4. Need to see how he does in the predraft work but could be a nice 3rd or 4th round pick if he works out well.


Deon Watson Idaho:
Extremely interesting prospect especially if he puts on some weight and is a pass catching tight end. Could be a nice late round pick and possibly could be a WR if he shows he has enough speed as well.


Anthony Wales Western Kentucky:
Had a great year, very good runner and should be a solid mid round pick. Can run hard and make big plays from the running back position. Was helped by a solid offensive line but was consistent running inside and outside almost all season.


Michael Roberts Toledo:
Had a solid year and is a big physical tight end, love his height and weight and is a solid pass catcher. Could really rise up the tight end boards potentially.


Erich Schneider Duke:
Love his wing span, huge kid and super long, needs to get stronger but if he can fill out some more could be a hell of a weapon potentially. Could be a steal late round pick.


Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse:
Physically is very impressive, nice strong receiver than had a great year in an offense that was not all that good. Really productive after the catch and showed a lot more ability than he did the seasons before. Be interesting how he works out in the pre draft combine.


Paul Davis Georgia Tech:
Kind of gets forgotten but is a very active linebacker that flows well and can get off blocks. Quick and impactful hitter, should be a nice mid round pick and could play in a 3/4 or 4/3 possibly, but would be better in a 3/4 I believe.


Barrett Burns App State:
Like his blocking ability at a lot, that alone will get him a shot at the next level. Still needs to show some more athletic ability in the passing game but with so many multiple TE formations he is a nice addition for his blocking for sure.


Great call on Khalid Abdullah from James Madison. Just watched a few of his games. He is going to make a team and he has surprising starter upside. A lot of people are aware of Marlon Mack now; but few are talking about Abdullah.

In fact, a lot of general talk about this RB class being pretty good, but there are more than a few gems in this class that if given time due to a minicamp injury or something...will become household names.

I know a lot f people mention Curtis Samuel from time to time, but his best football is ahead of him and if given a starting RB workload he could be a top 5 RB in the league. He was not utilized as such in Urban Meyer's spread, but will give everything Alvin Kamara will albeit to a lesser extent.

It will be interesting to see where Khalid Abdullah goes.
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Ozzy


Joined: 29 Sep 2008
Posts: 684
Location: Minnesota
PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mind Character wrote:


Great call on Khalid Abdullah from James Madison. Just watched a few of his games. He is going to make a team and he has surprising starter upside. A lot of people are aware of Marlon Mack now; but few are talking about Abdullah.

In fact, a lot of general talk about this RB class being pretty good, but there are more than a few gems in this class that if given time due to a minicamp injury or something...will become household names.

I know a lot f people mention Curtis Samuel from time to time, but his best football is ahead of him and if given a starting RB workload he could be a top 5 RB in the league. He was not utilized as such in Urban Meyer's spread, but will give everything Alvin Kamara will albeit to a lesser extent.

It will be interesting to see where Khalid Abdullah goes.
I think Khalid will go somewhere in the middle to late rounds most likely 4-6, and I have him rated higher than Mack. I do have 19 backs ahead of Abdullah but all those players are very solid and if in a different draft class he would have been higher. I do really like his footwork and ability to make cuts. Very promising talent, and I agree a lot of these guys can play. Will be some solid players who will not be drafted. If you got with what 20-25 RBs drafted all these guys would not be picked then potentially.


TJ Logan UNC
Boo Williams Kentucky JR
Brian Hill Wyoming JR
Aaron Jones UTEP JR
Devine Redding Indiana JR
Joel Bouagnon Northern Illinois
Jordan Chunn Troy
Akeem Judd Ole Miss
Justin Davis USC
Ty Isaac Michigan
Chris Carson Ok State
Marcus Cox App State
Joseph Yearby Miami FL JR
Dare Ogunbowale Wisconsin
I'Tavius Mathers Middle Tennessee
Tyrone Swoopes Texas
Tarean Folston Notre Dame
King Frazier NDSU
Shock Linwood Baylor
Gus Edwards Miami FL
Dontre Wilson Ohio State
Brandon Holloway Miss State



Samuel I like as well as a pass catching RB type, is easily top 8 in the draft as a RB, really fine ability to catch the football. Might be the best pass catching back in the draft but not sure he can take the day in and out pounding at the position. Might have to switch to WR but will get his first look at RB. Very interesting talent, then again a lot of backs in this draft are very good pass catching threats.
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lark25


Joined: 01 May 2014
Posts: 399
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Disagree on Watt and Biegel. These are the best players on a very good defense and would be solid even on bad teams.

To me Biegel flashed a bit more than Schobert when watching them both before, Watt is again a bit more explosive than either and will benefit from added weight.

Not sure Schobert's a cautionary tale - he is stuck behind a pro bowler and has looked like a passable NFL player when he has played. He'd be a decent 4-3 OLB. I think the other guys could be ok in a few schemes.
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IDOG_det


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Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ozzy wrote:
Mind Character wrote:


Great call on Khalid Abdullah from James Madison. Just watched a few of his games. He is going to make a team and he has surprising starter upside. A lot of people are aware of Marlon Mack now; but few are talking about Abdullah.

In fact, a lot of general talk about this RB class being pretty good, but there are more than a few gems in this class that if given time due to a minicamp injury or something...will become household names.

I know a lot f people mention Curtis Samuel from time to time, but his best football is ahead of him and if given a starting RB workload he could be a top 5 RB in the league. He was not utilized as such in Urban Meyer's spread, but will give everything Alvin Kamara will albeit to a lesser extent.

It will be interesting to see where Khalid Abdullah goes.
I think Khalid will go somewhere in the middle to late rounds most likely 4-6, and I have him rated higher than Mack. I do have 19 backs ahead of Abdullah but all those players are very solid and if in a different draft class he would have been higher. I do really like his footwork and ability to make cuts. Very promising talent, and I agree a lot of these guys can play. Will be some solid players who will not be drafted. If you got with what 20-25 RBs drafted all these guys would not be picked then potentially.


TJ Logan UNC
Boo Williams Kentucky JR
Brian Hill Wyoming JR
Aaron Jones UTEP JR
Devine Redding Indiana JR
Joel Bouagnon Northern Illinois
Jordan Chunn Troy
Akeem Judd Ole Miss
Justin Davis USC
Ty Isaac Michigan
Chris Carson Ok State
Marcus Cox App State
Joseph Yearby Miami FL JR
Dare Ogunbowale Wisconsin
I'Tavius Mathers Middle Tennessee
Tyrone Swoopes Texas
Tarean Folston Notre Dame
King Frazier NDSU
Shock Linwood Baylor
Gus Edwards Miami FL
Dontre Wilson Ohio State
Brandon Holloway Miss State



Samuel I like as well as a pass catching RB type, is easily top 8 in the draft as a RB, really fine ability to catch the football. Might be the best pass catching back in the draft but not sure he can take the day in and out pounding at the position. Might have to switch to WR but will get his first look at RB. Very interesting talent, then again a lot of backs in this draft are very good pass catching threats.
Ty Isaac isn't in this draft. Next year is his last season of eligibility so he'll be in the 2018 draft.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mind Character wrote:
Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.


Your Watt analysis is so wrong. Watt has outstanding flexibility throughout both his upper and lower body. And his instincts for a guy with such limited defensive experience are incredible. He reads and attacks blocking schemes like a NFL player despite the fact that he only has one year of starting experience in college and only has played defense for two years.
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Mind Character


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 1:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.


Your Watt analysis is so wrong. Watt has outstanding flexibility throughout both his upper and lower body. And his instincts for a guy with such limited defensive experience are incredible. He reads and attacks blocking schemes like a NFL player despite the fact that he only has one year of starting experience in college and only has played defense for two years.


Agree to disagree.

The instincts I am talking about are the ability to without hesitation use one's eyes to wade through traffic with efficient angles as well as the ability to use keyed eyes and sense the runner coming to one's gap and redirect in time off the olineman for a TFL or run contain. Beigel and Schobert are better than Watt at those instinct skills; however, the physicality of Watt's hands and redirect is superior.

Where does Watt play? To me, he is not an great bender and does not have the required burst at the top of his rush to be an impact 34 OLB. He has exceptional hands and technique and the strong hands to redirect. These qualities would be great if he was bigger and could play 43DE, but these qualities without elite outside rush movement dynamics limit his upside as a 34OLB rush end.

At Wisconsin, in their scheme, they line up their 34OLB just like a 34 primary rush team. Watt can set the edge but has a hard time seeing the ball with good football instincts imo. It's hard to project where TJ watt should play, but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Playing him on the outside as a 34OLB works in the Big ten but won't translate to the pros imo.

Biegel is a different animal who's instincts shine as he takes great angles and his eyes wade through traffic better in route to the ball.

Joe Schoebert was a nice 34OLB at Wisconsin as well as a nice ILB rush specialist...in the pros he has to be 43 LB...I see the same for Biegel. Watt doesn't have the movement skills of those two and is better playing closer to the line but I only see him as a situational 34OLB rusher with the ability to play the run to contain the pocket. He'd be good against running QBs with his strong hand redirects, but his pro upside position is hard to decipher.
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resilient


Joined: 07 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MWil23 wrote:
Techbert wrote:
Ozzy wrote:
...

Paul Davis Georgia Tech:
Kind of gets forgotten but is a very active linebacker that flows well and can get off blocks. Quick and impactful hitter, should be a nice mid round pick and could play in a 3/4 or 4/3 possibly, but would be better in a 3/4 I believe.
...


PJ has size issues and is not a natural penetrator




Damn this post. I have a fractured rib, hurts like hell to laugh. and this post made me LOL for at least a couple of minutes. Mad Very Happy
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mind Character wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.


Your Watt analysis is so wrong. Watt has outstanding flexibility throughout both his upper and lower body. And his instincts for a guy with such limited defensive experience are incredible. He reads and attacks blocking schemes like a NFL player despite the fact that he only has one year of starting experience in college and only has played defense for two years.


Agree to disagree.

The instincts I am talking about are the ability to without hesitation use one's eyes to wade through traffic with efficient angles as well as the ability to use keyed eyes and sense the runner coming to one's gap and redirect in time off the olineman for a TFL or run contain. Beigel and Schobert are better than Watt at those instinct skills; however, the physicality of Watt's hands and redirect is superior.

Where does Watt play? To me, he is not an great bender and does not have the required burst at the top of his rush to be an impact 34 OLB. He has exceptional hands and technique and the strong hands to redirect. These qualities would be great if he was bigger and could play 43DE, but these qualities without elite outside rush movement dynamics limit his upside as a 34OLB rush end.

At Wisconsin, in their scheme, they line up their 34OLB just like a 34 primary rush team. Watt can set the edge but has a hard time seeing the ball with good football instincts imo. It's hard to project where TJ watt should play, but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Playing him on the outside as a 34OLB works in the Big ten but won't translate to the pros imo.


This video is long, but it does a great job of illustrating why this analysis is off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evHQtX_10Uc

And that saves me the time of writing up a long post.

If you were to tell me that you doubt that Watt has the power and explosion to be a 3-4 OLB, fine. I disagree based on my projections, but it's a defensible stance.

However, claiming that Watt lacks flexibility and instincts just isn't accurate. That video will show you why. Of course, knowing the internet, my expectation is that you will choose not to watch it (partially because of how long it is). Again, that's fine. It's your life. But it shows video evidence refuting the points you're making about his flexibility and instincts.
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Mind Character


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 2:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.


Your Watt analysis is so wrong. Watt has outstanding flexibility throughout both his upper and lower body. And his instincts for a guy with such limited defensive experience are incredible. He reads and attacks blocking schemes like a NFL player despite the fact that he only has one year of starting experience in college and only has played defense for two years.


Agree to disagree.

The instincts I am talking about are the ability to without hesitation use one's eyes to wade through traffic with efficient angles as well as the ability to use keyed eyes and sense the runner coming to one's gap and redirect in time off the olineman for a TFL or run contain. Beigel and Schobert are better than Watt at those instinct skills; however, the physicality of Watt's hands and redirect is superior.

Where does Watt play? To me, he is not an great bender and does not have the required burst at the top of his rush to be an impact 34 OLB. He has exceptional hands and technique and the strong hands to redirect. These qualities would be great if he was bigger and could play 43DE, but these qualities without elite outside rush movement dynamics limit his upside as a 34OLB rush end.

At Wisconsin, in their scheme, they line up their 34OLB just like a 34 primary rush team. Watt can set the edge but has a hard time seeing the ball with good football instincts imo. It's hard to project where TJ watt should play, but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Playing him on the outside as a 34OLB works in the Big ten but won't translate to the pros imo.


This video is long, but it does a great job of illustrating why this analysis is off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evHQtX_10Uc

And that saves me the time of writing up a long post.

If you were to tell me that you doubt that Watt has the power and explosion to be a 3-4 OLB, fine. I disagree based on my projections, but it's a defensible stance.

However, claiming that Watt lacks flexibility and instincts just isn't accurate. That video will show you why. Of course, knowing the internet, my expectation is that you will choose not to watch it (partially because of how long it is). Again, that's fine. It's your life. But it shows video evidence refuting the points you're making about his flexibility and instincts.


I actually love Matt Waldman and RSP film room. Had not seen that video before. Saw the video and I am comfortable incorporating new information and admitting that I was wrong.

I generally agree with Matt on most occassions and even when I disagree, Matt is really thoughtful and one of the better prospect evaluators not commercially known by most. You're not going to like this but I think reframing and further explaining the language in our discussion reveals that we agree on a lot. At least that I agree with Matt and Kyle on a lot of the key points that you think I'm wrong on. Of course there are still some disagreements.



I think mostly we're two ships passing in the night but have one key disagreement. I think it comes down to two points


1. Getting Skinny/Small Body flexibility versus outside bend/burst rush flexibility. Matt and Kyle praised his ability to "get small" and flexibility in his shoulders to gap penetrate to the inside. In my post I emphasized this point when I said "...but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Matt and Kyle praise his inside rush and gap penetrating ability. They say getting small. I said getting skinny. Now, if you think he can win on the outside those skills help contribute to making a good 34OLB and that's their and your point. I don't think he can so those traits and skills translate to a 34ILB rush specialist a la Jamie Collins types that thrive off of getting skinny on stunts or inside gap penetration. Although not ideal, there is some value for those skills in as a 34ILB sub rush guy....at least IMO.

2. there is a difference to me between outside burst and bend rush flexibility (which I think Watt lacks) and general hip and body flexibility to get skinny on inside stunts/rush (which he has in spades and is special at). MAtt and Kyle said they like his outside rushes but more often were wowed by his inside moves. I am the same, but as he doesn't have the balance to bend and flatten (the balance was also questioned by Kyle) his ability to win in the league on the outside especially since he lacks explosiveness or ability to speed burst rush the edge again means he's limited as a 34 prospect.

On these previous points, I think I see things similar to Kyle and MAtt albeit disagreement on his ability to play outside. AND critically disagree with you and them on his hand strength and grip strength toward setting a hard edge. I've seen some tape that suggested he could hold up; but they make some compelling analysis as to that being a question mark.

Lastly, as to the instinct thing...for me there are key distinctions to make regarding "working through traffic through the line on an inside stunt/blitz" versus "working through traffic in pursuit of a ball carrier down the line.". Watt shows good instincts on the former, but really poor ones in pursuit. That's why I thought Schobert and Biegel had better instincts as when that position is suppose to pursue they don't get caught in the muck. In terms of instincts it takes to know when to get skinny and elusive on inside rush, Watt is good at that.

That at least clarifies our critical disagreements as there are some, but I think also highlights that we agree on more things as well in that Watt is instinctual but we may agree/disagree as to what those instincts refer to.

Watt's a great player and as a I said has an uncanny ability to get skinny and instincts on inside rush and gap penetration. Due to his deficient outside bend and burst explosiveness ability...he'll struggle being a full time 34OLB. Those rushing instincts might serve him well as a 34ILB sub rush specialist. Those were the general points I tried to make in my posts and I still feel that way.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 69128
PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mind Character wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Mind Character wrote:
Watt is rangy but not explosive and does not play with instincts. His effort makes up for a lot of deficiencies. Like the way Biegel uses his hands. I actually think Schobert is a better prospect than them both in the 43 as a OLB. Watt and Biegel don't have the explosion or bend to be impact players as 34OLB; however, watt would be a nice sub rusher and Biegel a nice 43 LB depth player.


Your Watt analysis is so wrong. Watt has outstanding flexibility throughout both his upper and lower body. And his instincts for a guy with such limited defensive experience are incredible. He reads and attacks blocking schemes like a NFL player despite the fact that he only has one year of starting experience in college and only has played defense for two years.


Agree to disagree.

The instincts I am talking about are the ability to without hesitation use one's eyes to wade through traffic with efficient angles as well as the ability to use keyed eyes and sense the runner coming to one's gap and redirect in time off the olineman for a TFL or run contain. Beigel and Schobert are better than Watt at those instinct skills; however, the physicality of Watt's hands and redirect is superior.

Where does Watt play? To me, he is not an great bender and does not have the required burst at the top of his rush to be an impact 34 OLB. He has exceptional hands and technique and the strong hands to redirect. These qualities would be great if he was bigger and could play 43DE, but these qualities without elite outside rush movement dynamics limit his upside as a 34OLB rush end.

At Wisconsin, in their scheme, they line up their 34OLB just like a 34 primary rush team. Watt can set the edge but has a hard time seeing the ball with good football instincts imo. It's hard to project where TJ watt should play, but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Playing him on the outside as a 34OLB works in the Big ten but won't translate to the pros imo.


This video is long, but it does a great job of illustrating why this analysis is off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evHQtX_10Uc

And that saves me the time of writing up a long post.

If you were to tell me that you doubt that Watt has the power and explosion to be a 3-4 OLB, fine. I disagree based on my projections, but it's a defensible stance.

However, claiming that Watt lacks flexibility and instincts just isn't accurate. That video will show you why. Of course, knowing the internet, my expectation is that you will choose not to watch it (partially because of how long it is). Again, that's fine. It's your life. But it shows video evidence refuting the points you're making about his flexibility and instincts.


I actually love Matt Waldman and RSP film room. Had not seen that video before. Saw the video and I am comfortable incorporating new information and admitting that I was wrong.

I generally agree with Matt on most occassions and even when I disagree, Matt is really thoughtful and one of the better prospect evaluators not commercially known by most. You're not going to like this but I think reframing and further explaining the language in our discussion reveals that we agree on a lot. At least that I agree with Matt and Kyle on a lot of the key points that you think I'm wrong on. Of course there are still some disagreements.



I think mostly we're two ships passing in the night but have one key disagreement. I think it comes down to two points


1. Getting Skinny/Small Body flexibility versus outside bend/burst rush flexibility. Matt and Kyle praised his ability to "get small" and flexibility in his shoulders to gap penetrate to the inside. In my post I emphasized this point when I said "...but I might try him as a 34ILB so he can use his hand technique and straight line burst to thump on inside runs and get skinny (which he is really good at) on inside rushes. Matt and Kyle praise his inside rush and gap penetrating ability. They say getting small. I said getting skinny. Now, if you think he can win on the outside those skills help contribute to making a good 34OLB and that's their and your point. I don't think he can so those traits and skills translate to a 34ILB rush specialist a la Jamie Collins types that thrive off of getting skinny on stunts or inside gap penetration. Although not ideal, there is some value for those skills in as a 34ILB sub rush guy....at least IMO.

2. there is a difference to me between outside burst and bend rush flexibility (which I think Watt lacks) and general hip and body flexibility to get skinny on inside stunts/rush (which he has in spades and is special at). MAtt and Kyle said they like his outside rushes but more often were wowed by his inside moves. I am the same, but as he doesn't have the balance to bend and flatten (the balance was also questioned by Kyle) his ability to win in the league on the outside especially since he lacks explosiveness or ability to speed burst rush the edge again means he's limited as a 34 prospect.

On these previous points, I think I see things similar to Kyle and MAtt albeit disagreement on his ability to play outside. AND critically disagree with you and them on his hand strength and grip strength toward setting a hard edge. I've seen some tape that suggested he could hold up; but they make some compelling analysis as to that being a question mark.

Lastly, as to the instinct thing...for me there are key distinctions to make regarding "working through traffic through the line on an inside stunt/blitz" versus "working through traffic in pursuit of a ball carrier down the line.". Watt shows good instincts on the former, but really poor ones in pursuit. That's why I thought Schobert and Biegel had better instincts as when that position is suppose to pursue they don't get caught in the muck. In terms of instincts it takes to know when to get skinny and elusive on inside rush, Watt is good at that.

That at least clarifies our critical disagreements as there are some, but I think also highlights that we agree on more things as well in that Watt is instinctual but we may agree/disagree as to what those instincts refer to.

Watt's a great player and as a I said has an uncanny ability to get skinny and instincts on inside rush and gap penetration. Due to his deficient outside bend and burst explosiveness ability...he'll struggle being a full time 34OLB. Those rushing instincts might serve him well as a 34ILB sub rush specialist. Those were the general points I tried to make in my posts and I still feel that way.


I stand corrected. I respect the fact that you were willing to take the time to see the other side of the argument. Most people will not. I hear your criticisms. I understand them. I do not fully agree, but I understand where you're coming from.

I still contend that he has the flexibility to win the corner in the NFL. He's not Robert Quinn (not many are), but he has enough bend around the edge to get underneath OTs and use his hands to win.
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Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Posts: 6854
PostPosted: Sat Mar 04, 2017 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They are similar in terms of possible NFL impact, but different in how people seem to perceive them. I consider Malik McDowell to be overrated and DeMarcus Walker to be underrated. Now, I project both of these players as edge guys who may bump inside on clear passing downs, but I still think Walker is a superior prospect in both contexts.

It's easy to get enamored with McDowell's frame, and he sometimes uses his long arms to his advantage, but the amount of times he ends up eating grass from either a double team or getting bowled over in a one on one is far too often. Taller guys have to be more aware of their pad level and McDowell simply isn't too often. I like him as a Carlos Dunlap/Mario Williams type edge player.

DeMarcus Walker gets little to no first round buzz. When I look at a n edge guy, my first question is, "can he hold up against the run." Walker is not only a playmaker in the run game, but can also set the edge by stacking and shedding. He's very rarely on the ground and, although he won a bunch using an inside swim move in 2016, has shown he can turn the corner with the best of them. His hand use is superb and he rarely gets locked in a stalemate with offensive linemen (if he's not fatigued). Lastly, the man is a beast when it comes to knocking passes down at the line.
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