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The Bears starting QB in 2017 is...
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6860
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IotaNet wrote:
G08 wrote:
My struggle was that it was the #3 overall pick. If I told you we had the #10 pick, I think you'd feel a lot better ...
EXACTLY!

In my mind, the #3 pick ought to be a sure thing -- or as close to a sure thing as exists in the draft. And Watson isn't it. You point is well taken however, about trusting Pace and his staff to make the call. So far, he's been a very good evaluator of talent.

EDIT: I decided to go back and see what the #3 picks have been over the past 10 years. With the given that nobody has a crystal ball, how do we project Watson to compare with this list?

2007: Joe Thomas
2008: Matt Ryan
2009: Tyson Jackson
2010: Gerald McCoy
2011: Marcell Dareus
2012: Trent Richardson
2013: Dion Jordan
2014: Blake Bortles
2015: Dante Fowler
2016: Joey Bosa


Stud LT
Stud QB
Bust DE
Stud 3T
Stud DT
Bust RB
Bust OLB
Bust(?) QB
Meh OLB
Solid OLB

I'd have Watson below Ryan and above Bortles (I wasn't ever high on Bortles).
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 17054
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
IotaNet wrote:
G08 wrote:
My struggle was that it was the #3 overall pick. If I told you we had the #10 pick, I think you'd feel a lot better ...
EXACTLY!

In my mind, the #3 pick ought to be a sure thing -- or as close to a sure thing as exists in the draft. And Watson isn't it. You point is well taken however, about trusting Pace and his staff to make the call. So far, he's been a very good evaluator of talent.

EDIT: I decided to go back and see what the #3 picks have been over the past 10 years. With the given that nobody has a crystal ball, how do we project Watson to compare with this list?

2007: Joe Thomas
2008: Matt Ryan
2009: Tyson Jackson
2010: Gerald McCoy
2011: Marcell Dareus
2012: Trent Richardson
2013: Dion Jordan
2014: Blake Bortles
2015: Dante Fowler
2016: Joey Bosa


Stud LT
Stud QB
Bust DE
Stud 3T
Stud DT
Bust RB
Bust OLB
Bust(?) QB
Meh OLB
Solid OLB

I'd have Watson below Ryan and above Bortles (I wasn't ever high on Bortles).


Bosa is a 5T, but agree on the rest.
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topwop1


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 7790
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IotaNet wrote:
G08 wrote:
My struggle was that it was the #3 overall pick. If I told you we had the #10 pick, I think you'd feel a lot better ...
EXACTLY!

In my mind, the #3 pick ought to be a sure thing -- or as close to a sure thing as exists in the draft. And Watson isn't it. You point is well taken however, about trusting Pace and his staff to make the call. So far, he's been a very good evaluator of talent.

EDIT: I decided to go back and see what the #3 picks have been over the past 10 years. With the given that nobody has a crystal ball, how do we project Watson to compare with this list?

2007: Joe Thomas
2008: Matt Ryan
2009: Tyson Jackson
2010: Gerald McCoy
2011: Marcell Dareus
2012: Trent Richardson
2013: Dion Jordan
2014: Blake Bortles
2015: Dante Fowler
2016: Joey Bosa


A good sign is that none of the QB's taken at the #3 spot in the past 10 years are busts.

The jury of course is still out on Bortles and he did have a pretty rough 2016 season but his 2015 season was impressive. I don't think he will end up being a bust with Marrone in charge.
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 17054
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

topwop1 wrote:
IotaNet wrote:
G08 wrote:
My struggle was that it was the #3 overall pick. If I told you we had the #10 pick, I think you'd feel a lot better ...
EXACTLY!

In my mind, the #3 pick ought to be a sure thing -- or as close to a sure thing as exists in the draft. And Watson isn't it. You point is well taken however, about trusting Pace and his staff to make the call. So far, he's been a very good evaluator of talent.

EDIT: I decided to go back and see what the #3 picks have been over the past 10 years. With the given that nobody has a crystal ball, how do we project Watson to compare with this list?

2007: Joe Thomas
2008: Matt Ryan
2009: Tyson Jackson
2010: Gerald McCoy
2011: Marcell Dareus
2012: Trent Richardson
2013: Dion Jordan
2014: Blake Bortles
2015: Dante Fowler
2016: Joey Bosa


A good sign is that none of the QB's taken at the #3 spot in the past 10 years are busts.

The jury of course is still out on Bortles and he did have a pretty rough 2016 season but his 2015 season was stellar. I don't think he will end up being a bust with Marrone in charge.


I mean thats a pretty small sample size. Laughing

Not saying that you are wrong, but you have 1 confirmed non bust and 1 who the jury is out on
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topwop1


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 7790
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
topwop1 wrote:
IotaNet wrote:
G08 wrote:
My struggle was that it was the #3 overall pick. If I told you we had the #10 pick, I think you'd feel a lot better ...
EXACTLY!

In my mind, the #3 pick ought to be a sure thing -- or as close to a sure thing as exists in the draft. And Watson isn't it. You point is well taken however, about trusting Pace and his staff to make the call. So far, he's been a very good evaluator of talent.

EDIT: I decided to go back and see what the #3 picks have been over the past 10 years. With the given that nobody has a crystal ball, how do we project Watson to compare with this list?

2007: Joe Thomas
2008: Matt Ryan
2009: Tyson Jackson
2010: Gerald McCoy
2011: Marcell Dareus
2012: Trent Richardson
2013: Dion Jordan
2014: Blake Bortles
2015: Dante Fowler
2016: Joey Bosa


A good sign is that none of the QB's taken at the #3 spot in the past 10 years are busts.

The jury of course is still out on Bortles and he did have a pretty rough 2016 season but his 2015 season was stellar. I don't think he will end up being a bust with Marrone in charge.


I mean thats a pretty small sample size. Laughing

Not saying that you are wrong, but you have 1 confirmed non bust and 1 who the jury is out on


Ya looking back further Vince Young, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith were the #3 picks as well so let's just not discuss this any further...
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dll2000


Joined: 04 Apr 2016
Posts: 504
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

topwop1 wrote:

Ya looking back further Vince Young, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith were the #3 picks as well so let's just not discuss this any further...


LOL
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HuskieBear


Joined: 16 Feb 2009
Posts: 1809
Location: Milwaukee
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dll2000 wrote:
topwop1 wrote:

Ya looking back further Vince Young, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith were the #3 picks as well so let's just not discuss this any further...


LOL


Vince Young is a very good point. His performance in the national championship arguably swayed many peoples opinions on him, leading him to be drafted #3 overall (before cutler, the best QB in that class).

Watson had a heck of a game last night. if he plays like that every game, good for him, but lets not let the excitement of last night sway what we've seen all year from him.
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Madmike90 wrote:
Hurting after today tho is Denzel Washington...5-10 1/2" is a concern...Chris Borland helps him but the 1st round is out of reach now if it wasn't already.
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Mudderfudder77


Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 2438
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HuskieBear wrote:
dll2000 wrote:
topwop1 wrote:

Ya looking back further Vince Young, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith were the #3 picks as well so let's just not discuss this any further...


LOL


Vince Young is a very good point. His performance in the national championship arguably swayed many peoples opinions on him, leading him to be drafted #3 overall (before cutler, the best QB in that class).

Watson had a heck of a game last night. if he plays like that every game, good for him, but lets not let the excitement of last night sway what we've seen all year from him.



In fairness to Vince Young - he got Jeff Fisher'd.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6860
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mudderfudder77 wrote:
HuskieBear wrote:
dll2000 wrote:
topwop1 wrote:

Ya looking back further Vince Young, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith were the #3 picks as well so let's just not discuss this any further...


LOL


Vince Young is a very good point. His performance in the national championship arguably swayed many peoples opinions on him, leading him to be drafted #3 overall (before cutler, the best QB in that class).

Watson had a heck of a game last night. if he plays like that every game, good for him, but lets not let the excitement of last night sway what we've seen all year from him.



In fairness to Vince Young - he got Jeff Fisher'd.


And Fisher is on the record saying he wanted to get Cutler'd.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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Sugashane


Joined: 06 Jan 2013
Posts: 3271
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Epyon wrote:
Sugashane wrote:
Epyon wrote:
topwop1 wrote:


I don't think Mahomes will be in play for the Bears. He's not going at #3 and there is too much risk to bank on him being available later on. Only way I think it could happen if QB's go 1 & 2 and Garrett is sitting there for the Bears. Highly unlikely at this point.

I believe their next QB will be either Watson or Trubisky and he will be taken with the #3 pick.

Hoyer
Watson/Trubisky
Barkley/Shaw

Remember where you heard it!


Sadly I don't think Mahomes is on our board at all either...

Watson= We've publicly sent scouts to multiple games

Trubiisky =ditto

Kizer = Ditto

Webb = Pace talked about the Senior Bowl and Dak Prescott in his press conference, I think they want a good long look at Webb


The only QBs absent from the list are Mahomes and that Allen kid. Seems super strange to me that he'd just blatantly leave a top guy off the list like that in Mahomes....


I am sure he will look into him, Pace has months top work scenarios, make calls, watch film, etc. It is odd not to hear of any looking into though. But I agree entirely with you on this and your previous post. For pure arm talent I have Mahomes above Watson, but Watson is undoubtedly more polished as far as mechanics and on big stages, as Mahomes lost games at TT while putting up over. 40 numerous times.

If Webb is the pick I feel QB is seriously a lock for an early pick in 2018. I like the tools, but that would be a major stance to say he is the QB of the future for you.


It's also admittedly going to be super tough to accurately evaluate Mahomes.

His defense was 128th out of 128, and I think 8 (!) of his games had an opposing team dump 44+ points on them... That's like... almost 3x as terrible as the year we fired Trestman for... and while still playing 4 less games for a season than the NFL. His offensive line was seemingly non existent for most of the year, as bad as Clemson's was vs Bama last night, and his team had no running game. Those are some massive disadvantages to try and overcome, which is why seeing him succeed is so interesting...The flipside of all that is how terrible a lot of his opponent's defenses where at coverage as well. Much harder to evaluate under those kinds of circumstances, as many of his games looked like an NFL Blitz arcade game than anything resembling an NFL game.

I really hope Pace ain't sleeping on him though... Watson I feel can be solid, but Mahomes is the only QB this class with the real potential to be elite, imo.


All valid points, and the crazy thing is that there is so much more to consider too.

His defense was an abomination, and he did not have a lot of talent around at the skill positions either. They were shift and quick, but no one to really be scared of. To new that is a positive even against mediocre competition because he didn't have a Williams and Leggett like Watson, or Evans like Manziel. He is producing under pressure to no names.

When I do my armchair analysis of QBs, I tend to try to look at what they can do, as much as what they are commonly asked to do.

By that I mean little thinks. Newton and Watson ran a simple offense, but they made audibles, shifted players to block. That does me they understand (at least a rudimentary level) blitzing concepts, tendencies, and coverages. So they aren't just throwers. They do study film. Mahomes does the same. He completely changed plays every game, and usually makes good on them.

I mentioned how Trubisky drops throws into the weaknesses in cover 2. That is impressive with so little experience, as it is usually over a cb or lb but with enough zip a safety cannot get into position. Mahomes had shown that touch as well, though he usually days passes in on short to intermediate routes. Touch and throwing WR item is hard to try and teach. Not having a stud WR or TE to throw to makes it more impressive.

There is a lot to like, but he will have to be coached up. If Pace feels the staff can't do it, then they need to clean house, because we will not have Luck strolling into Halas Hall. All of them will need to be put into a position to succeed. Whoever we get, I hope they are put in a good spot to succeed.
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IotaNet


Joined: 27 Jan 2013
Posts: 216
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HuskieBear wrote:
... Watson had a heck of a game last night. if he plays like that every game, good for him, but lets not let the excitement of last night sway what we've seen all year from him.


True but I also have to go back to what I said a couple of posts back...
IotaNet wrote:
The kid is smart (degree in 3 years, I've read raves about his football IQ), he obviously is an excellent leader, he's tough, focused and resilient. He also has the "it" factor -- I can't imagine a stage too big for him.


Whatever else we think about this kid, he does have the intangibles and that does matter. I am still not sold but as I said, I'm willing to open my mind. If Pace & Co. do their due diligence and they like him (and make no mistake, he'll be betting his job), I'll be all in.
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WindyCity


Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 16486
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HuskieBear wrote:
dll2000 wrote:
topwop1 wrote:

Ya looking back further Vince Young, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith were the #3 picks as well so let's just not discuss this any further...


LOL


Vince Young is a very good point. His performance in the national championship arguably swayed many peoples opinions on him, leading him to be drafted #3 overall (before cutler, the best QB in that class).

Watson had a heck of a game last night. if he plays like that every game, good for him, but lets not let the excitement of last night sway what we've seen all year from him.


He plays like that every game.

Last year he went for 470 yards and 4 TDs against arguable a better Tide defense.

Look at his games against ranked competition, it is insane
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Rogerthat


Joined: 07 Jan 2017
Posts: 25
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do love the Watson "archer" touchdown celebration and he does the dab. Definitely the best touchdown celebration of the QB in the draft.
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Epyon


Joined: 02 Jan 2013
Posts: 442
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rogerthat wrote:
I do love the Watson "archer" touchdown celebration and he does the dab. Definitely the best touchdown celebration of the QB in the draft.


That's a penalty and a fine in the NFL, fwiw

The "Archer" thing, not the "dab" thing... because it's simulating weapons and implying violence, and some SJW got their panties in a bunch over it.

Sadly... I'm not even kidding...

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/josh-normans-fake-bow-and-arrow-celebration-leads-to-five-figure-fine/
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AZBearsFan


Joined: 04 Feb 2006
Posts: 13156
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IotaNet wrote:
G08 wrote:
My struggle was that it was the #3 overall pick. If I told you we had the #10 pick, I think you'd feel a lot better ...
EXACTLY!

In my mind, the #3 pick ought to be a sure thing -- or as close to a sure thing as exists in the draft. And Watson isn't it. You point is well taken however, about trusting Pace and his staff to make the call. So far, he's been a very good evaluator of talent.

EDIT: I decided to go back and see what the #3 picks have been over the past 10 years. With the given that nobody has a crystal ball, how do we project Watson to compare with this list?

2007: Joe Thomas
2008: Matt Ryan
2009: Tyson Jackson
2010: Gerald McCoy
2011: Marcell Dareus
2012: Trent Richardson
2013: Dion Jordan
2014: Blake Bortles
2015: Dante Fowler
2016: Joey Bosa

What near sure thing do you see? How do you know Allen won't be Tyson Jackson instead of Dareus or McCoy? How do you know Hooker or Adams won't be Michael Huff? "Sure things" bust too. Look at Tony Mandarich or Robert Gallery. Pace will be defined by the pick for sure whether he takes a QB or passes on a QB. This is the one. Pace is a proven scouting professional who has literally spent months researching QBs for this exact pick. If he thinks Watson is worthy then who am I to say he's wrong? Because I think Jonathan Allen is less risky? Yeah, he is. But the likelihood he's better than Akiem Hicks (who we got in the 2nd tier of FA) is not very high. Every 1st round pick is important. To me the part of picking 3rd is that you get the opportunity to get the top guy at a premium position. You don't get that picking 12th or 9th. 5T isn't a premium position to me so I'm not taking one 3rd. To me that's QB, LT or edge rusher, or MAYBE corner if you're looking at Charles Woodson Ron Deion Sanders. That's it. There isn't a worthy CB or LT this year and only one edge rusher, so for me it's QB or trade down.

As far as Watson goes, I see his floor as Tyrod Taylor and his ceiling as Russell Wilson. If he ends up Taylor and not Wilson then it's a disappointment but it's not crippling, and if he's Wilson then we are set at QB until about 2030. To me that's a guy worthy of the 3rd pick without question.
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