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Playoffs or Bust for Fox Mock Offseason

 
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Sugashane


Joined: 06 Jan 2013
Posts: 3018
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 6:26 pm    Post subject: Playoffs or Bust for Fox Mock Offseason Reply with quote

This will be an extremely aggressive mock, in both the trades and picks. We have a total lack of talent in some areas and no depth in others. Having the 3rd pick allows us to attack trade backs, and we will try to give the QB of the future time to develop as well. As always, this is NOT what I am guessing Pace will do.

Coaching change
Mike McCoy comes in to be the Chicago Bear’s new OC. We saw Tampa Bay fire Lovie to promote Koetter after having a successful season of grooming their rookie QB. McCoy sees the chance for a quick bounce back to being a HC along with Fox’s seat getting warm, and grabs this position.



Re-Sign/Franchise
Jeffery – FRANCHISE
We have had no indication of a long term deal, but there is simply no scenario where I let Jeffery walk without getting something in return. With the off-season I have, we would not get a compensatory pick. Better to get one next year for him with a much more conservative offseason, or get what you can now.

Hicks – EXTEND
He obviously has been a stud for us. I will not list contract costs as that will not affect his cap for this year. But at least 2 years, aim for 3, but I would prefer a 4th year with little/no guaranteed for that last year, in case of injury or continued stellar play.

DE – Washington: 3 years, $2.5 million per year
He is a passrushing rotational player, he is not going to get a 7 sack season or anything, but having an athlete like that on the line will always be a plus.

OG – Kush: 2 years, $1.75 million per year
He has been a super-sub for us, can play any interior position and did really well.

OLB – Acho: 2 years, $1 million per year
Veteran presence and can play in pass coverage and special teams. Really a decent depth guy.

QB – Hoyer: 2 years, $2 million per year.
He racked up yards, and crapped out in the end zone. Still, he was consistent and didn’t lose the ball. As a reserve and tutor to younger players he has a spot.

CB- Callahan: RFA tender
Let him try to earn the NB spot. He will never be a top 2 CB, but he has had enough flashed to think he can fight with LeBlanc for the spot.

LS – Scales : RFA tender
I forgot about him, which means as a longsnapper he is doing a good job. He earned this spot, and may get a long-term deal soon.



Trades
I will stress that I am using the Draft Value Charts to keep things somewhat balanced. Yes they are far from perfect but this gives a starting point for the moves.

Trade #1
Bears trade 1(3) (1700 pts) and Jeffery (I put as R2P1 of 580 pts) = 2780 pts
To
Titans for 1(5) (1700 pts), 1 (18 ) (900 pts), and 3(18 ) (180 pts) = 2780 pts
- Titans have a franchise QB but do not have a true number one for him. Rishard Matthews can move into a bigger threat being a number two, and they get Jeffrey to line up with him, Murray, Walker, and Henry. The offense looks potent. WR was a top need, but no more, and they can still draft their favorite CB or get BPA.

Trade #2
Bears trade 1(5) (1700 pts) and 2018 4th rounder (Not sure how that adds in)
To
Panthers for 1(8 ) (1400 pts), 3 (8 ) (230 pts), and 6(8 ) (24.2 pts) = 1654.2 pts)
- Bears move back and still get a chance at a premier talent while accumulating more much neede picks. This allows CAR to go after either Fournette or Barnett, as they need a pass rusher (Barnett is a great prospect) and that Fourette guy is ok too…

Trade #3
Bears trade R2(3) (550 pts) and Cutler
To
Cowboys for 1 (31 – my estimation) (600 pts) and Romo
- This is the really tough one. Dallas in in cap hell, and Romo’s deal is their damnation. He is due $19.6 million if cut OR traded. Now they can do the post June 1st cut to spead it over two years, but they are still in a bad way with the cap in 2017. My solution is to get an agreement with Dallas and Tony to restructure and add guaranteed cash ($5 million, essentially guaranteeing all of his 2017 salary) but removing contract language that causes a trade to force them to pay dead cap.
- Now Chicago has a veteran playmaker to work with for 2 years, allowing a rookie to develop and get the mechanical work done as needed. They also have Hoyer to assure he likely does not get forced into action, and moves into the first. Now with 3 first round choices, the QB will be able to be had for a 5th year option, so he can have 1-2 years of development to prepare and mold, and 3 years of game experience to measure his worth long term.
- Dallas now gets free of Romos’ contract, has a veteran back up who has years of starter experience at $8 million less, or they can simply cut him at no cost and be free of $22 million in the cap (Jay has the $2 million cap hit for being cut).
- As they are not in the plan long-term, any players listed in below under contract for 2017 can be added in for a cheap contract, so Dallas can manage cap. They are going to be cut and if it can cause us not to have dead cap then great, especially if it moves the deal along.



Cut/Not Re-Signed
CB – Porter

He is had bright flashes at times, but few this season. He was the Good Rex/Bad Rex of the defense. Thank you, but move on.

OLB – Houston
Two knee injures make him hard to feel confident in his health. Moving on.

WR – Royal
Be happy to have him for $1 million a year as a returner, but he is nowhere near worth his cost.

CB – McManis
Let the young guys do special teams work, he is a liability anywhere else.

RT – Massie
He isn’t worth his contract, move on and free space

G – Larsen
Kush is the better player, and a rookie can do as well as he did in his limited playing time.

WR – Wilson
Talented and unable to stay on the field. He will definitely find work, just not with us.

QB – Barkley
Had flashes but is a back up I want someone to not cost us games. He was as bad early in games as good to finish, I want consistent play with few turnovers as a reserve.

Assuming Cut in PreSeason
WR- Thompson
DT – Sutton
DT – Ferguson



Free Agency


CB – A.J. Bouye - 5 years, $55 mi ($11 mil annually)

- I think Trumaine Johnson’s deal gets overdone much like Janoris Jenkins did. This was why I was so adamant on making Sean Smith a priority. Bouye has been a lockdown corner with a defense missing Watt, He absolutely shut down TY Hilton, anyone he lined up against vs the Broncos, etc. In fact it was week 12 before he gave up 50 yards in a single game. He has been simply awesome and is looking at a major pay raise. We need a true number one, and he will fit the bill wonderfully.


FS Tony Jefferson - 5 years, $33.5 mil ($6.75 million annually – 3rd annually for all SS)

- Eric Berry is the best safety in this free agency, but Jefferson really isn’t that far behind. He is more than deserving of the Pro Bowl this year, though he likely won’t get nominated. Jefferson is a dynamic tackler who is also a plus defender in coverage. He can be a FS or SS, though I think his aggressive nature and solid tackling make him almost a true enforcer when he is on the field. He really does remind me of Mike Brown, he is always around the ball and shows up in big moments.

WR- DeSean Jackson (3 years $24 million)

We have Meredith, White, and Miller all as primary targets. There is speed/size mismatches, but Jackson is the one who can really take the top off of a defense. He topped 1,000 yards again and still gets over 15 YPR every year. When we go 3-wide, I slide him to the slot.

OT – Seabastian Vollmer (2 years $6 million – only 1st guaranteed though)

- He comes in to compete for a RT. He and his competition will cost less than Massie, and if healthy he is far better than Massie. This deal would top out at $3 million per year (possibly more with incentives), which is barely more than what Jordan Mills made this year.
*** I much prefer Cannon but believe he gets re-signed by NE. I would prefer Schraeder but ATL will likely re- signed as well. Kalil is an option but I feel he gets $4 million or so, Remmers would be a cheap alternative but not sure if an upgrade from Massie, same with Reiff.

OT – Luke Joeckel (2 years $5.5 million)


- I think he will have less of a market than most due to being kicked in to guard his last season. This is purely a flier stating he can compete for a starting RT position, as he has stated he does not want to play as an interior lineman. This is a chance to have a major positive, but no risk.

DE/NT – Ian Williams (3 years $12 million)

He can play anywhere on the line and is stout in the run game. I really like the idea of him being NT, Goldman getting to rush from 5T, and Hicks at the other 5T. It would all depend on his ankle though. I would add incentive for his production as well.

WR/RET – Corradelle Patterson (4 years, $12 million)

He has been absolutely stellar as a returner. He will get a good market, and we need a real returner. He is a solid 4/5 option as a WR, but should never be looked at as a steady performer for an offense. Let him be an explosive presence on special teams, the likes we have not had since Hester walked.

*** Cap Breakdown ***
I will be a bit lazy about it, but after the cuts and prior to Romo we have about $96 million in cap space (per Spotrac).
$96 – 24.70 (Romo) = $71.30
– 11.00 (Bouye) = $60.30
– $6.75 (Jefferson) = $54.55
– $8.00 (Jackson) = $45.55
- $3.00 (Vollmer) = $42.55
- 2.75 (Joeckel) = $39.80
- $4.00 (Williams) = $35.80
- $2.00 Hoyer = $33.80
- $1.00 (Acho) = $32.80

So now prior to the draft we have $32.8 million in cap space. That sounds like it we have plenty for 3 first round picks, but guess what? You’re damn right we do. From 2016’s draft
1(8 ) – $4.87 million
1(18 ) – $2.00 million
1(31) - $1.5 million
= $8.37 million, so let’s round up to $8.50 million, that these three make in 2017. Now we still have $24.30 million in cap space. Clearly the rest of the draft is a nonfactor, so I take a serious look at structuring Bouye to have a front loaded deal, as remember we are also going to have Hicks making $8-10.5 million in 2018 and 2019.
17/8/8/8/14 (restructure or cut if he is not worth $14 mil at that point) = $55 million




Draft
1(3) *** Traded to Titans, they draft Marlon Humphrey
1(5) *** Traded to Panthers, they selected Derek Barnett
Bears Picks
1(8 ) – Malik Hooker – FS (From Panthers)


The only DB prospect I liked more than him in recent years was Ramsey, and I feel there is a great shot of getting him at 8. The last time a safety was taken so high was Mark Barron by the Bucs. Hooker is a much better prospect than Barron, he has Ed Reed potential.

1(18 ) Quincy Wilson – CB (From Titans)

I still believe he is the best cover corner in this draft, regardless of who he has played alongside. He has been dominant in man coverage especially (does great with press, off, and trail responsibilities), and combined with Bouye we now have two young stud CBs. Now for the nickel we can have a competition of Callahan/LeBlanc/Hall. What was a major weakness this year, becomes a strength of the defense. Another point gained is the flexibility to play Fuller where he is needed most and IMO the best fit – FS.

1(31) Patrick Mahomes – QB (From Cowboys)

Patrick Mahomes is a QB who can make any throw, has the arm to handle any weather, and is a highly athletic prospect. He does not play in as simple of an offense as Leach’s Air Raid System, so that myth needs debunked. He does make pre-snap reads, has the green light to audible at his own discretion, and his intangibles are through the roof. He has been known as a student of the game has no off-field incidents to his name. He is not a running QB, he is a pocket passer with athleticism, huge difference. He throws quite a few timing passes and while he has a howitzer he has shown the ability to drop touch passes with great accuracy. He will need work on his footwork though, and will need further development to have more consistent mechanics overall. Even with those flaws, he still has the best arm talent in this draft. Now he can sit behind a pair of pros like Romo and Hoyer and get developed for 2 years, then when he gets the reigns he has 3 years to show he is the future of the franchise.

3(3) Curtis Samuel – WR/HB

He is a Percy Harvin player to me, while not as explosive or as tough a runner, he is very shifty and is hell to tackle in the open field, if you can catch him. Howard has shown he is one of the best runners in the NFL, but his hands are limited, hell he caught more passes as a Bear this year than his 3 collegiate years combined. Samuel is a 2nd round player in my eyes, but I think he drops due to the RB depth and him not having a clearly defined role. For us he is primarily a slot WR and a 3rd down back. He will also handle return duties behind Patterson.

3(8 ) D'Onta Foreman – HB

Again I think this player is a 2nd round pick who will get pushed down due to depth at HB and because he is a fairly limited receiver out of the backfield. But Foreman has power for days. The duo of Howard/Foreman quickly jumps to being in the talk of most punishing backfield in the league, matching up very well with Murray/Henry from Tennessee. He will be another guy who constantly makes good reads and gets the extra yard or two with most runs. At ‘1” and 25 pounds, he will remind a lot of people of Derrick Henry who haven’t watched him, though he lacks the breakaway speed Henry boasts.

3(18 ) Tanoh Kpassagnon – DE/OLB (Full credit goes to UKBearsFan)

He is a physical specimen, who likely would best fit as a 5T. But if he is as athletic as he seems from what I have watched (from after UK’s mock) he is athletic enough to go from a 2 point stance as well (rather than his constant 4 point). I fully think he will measure out as a much better athlete than McPhee, who is able to produce a ton of pressure. He will never be fluid enough to drop into coverage with regularity, but his length/size/athleticism gives him a solid ceiling. Kpassagnon might be the player that gets to rotate in as a 5T and OLB when there are injuries until he adjusts to become a full time starter here. He is aggressive in the run and seems to pinch down the line much better than most edge rushers.

4(3) Michael Roberts – TE (Assuming Hodges and Butt are off the board here, pretty safe bet I’d say)

One of my favorite sleeper prospects, right along with Forrest Lamp. He is 6’7” and 270 pounds, and has been a focal point of Toledo’s offense. He led all TE’s with 16 TDs this year, and has shown to be a stout run blocker from the bit I have seen of him. He doesn’t have Miller’s speed, but his the in-line blocker Miller can never be. Another plus is that this allows Miller to flex more in case of depth issues at TE, while not giving up a threat in the passing game.

4(8 ) Conor McDermott

I have him as a late second/early third pick, but most seem to think less of him. He has fantastic size and length for OT, plus was a TE (showing athleticism). But he has not played as well as he did last year from what little I have seen. Too much was made of Garrett abusing him in the opener though, a fully healthy Garrett should abuse any OT in this class, especially one who has not played OT for an exceptionally long time. With us having Leno in his last year to prove he is the LT of the future, and having Vollmer and Joeckel for a year or two each, he can really get to work to refine his technique and build strength. He can play either tackle when he develops, though of course he will never be Thomas or Peters out there.

5 (3) John Augusta – NT

Another project with great tools. He is a mammoth of a man at 6’4”, 355 pounds, but watch some clips and he moves like a man considerable smaller. While I don’t feel he will ever be able to garner more than the occasional 2-3 sacks a season (if used heavily) he can use his power to take on two gaps with consistency. Get him to 335 or so and you have a powerful anchor to rotate in.

6(8 ) Freddie Stevenson – FB

Fox seems to want a FB as he has brought in a few, but they were simply underwhelming talents. Stevenson has done really well as a lead blocker at Florida State and he was constantly opening holes up for Cook. While it is fun to let Unrein block in short yardage, he is limited to just that, but Stevenson was able to lead for explosive athletes like Cook, so he will be able to crack down, lead on tosses or blasts with Howard and Foreman.
*** If off the board then I would draft Taylor McNamara to convert to my FB. He looked athletic enough to get to the second level and blocked pretty well, so he could make the transition and be a bit of a passing threat IMO. (Assuming Stevenson on depth chart)

7(3) Zane Gonzalez or Eddy Pineiro – K (Assuming Gonzalez for depth chart)

Barth has been an experiment, but he did nothing to earn the job aside from being cheaper than Gould. Gonzalez has a strong leg and has been incredibly accurate from 40+ yards this year (13-15). Pineiro is the kid who kicked a 77 yard FG on youtube. He actually has turned into a good kicker but still will need coaching as he has been a soccer player more than kicker for football, but he went 11-13 from 40+ this year (3-3 from 50+). This is damn impressive for any kicker, let alone someone still getting consistent form.

Final Depth Chart
Offense
QB – Romo, Hoyer, Mahomes, Shaw
HB – Howard, Foreman, Carey/Langford
FB – Stevenson
WR – Jackson, White/Meredith, Samuel, Patterson (Miller acts as #5 WR)
TE – Miller, Roberts, Brown/Braunecker/Pruitt
LT – Leno, McDermott
LG – Sitton, Kush (swing)
C- Whitehair, Grasu (3rd string OG)
RG – Long
RT – Vollmer/Joeckel (loser is swing tackle)

Defense
LE – Hicks, Washington/Unrein/Kpassagnon
NT – Williams, August/Wilson
RE – Goldman, Bullard
LOLB – McPhee, Kpassagnon/Robertson-Harris
ILD – Freeman, Kwiatkowski
ILB – Trevathan, Timu
ROLB – Floyd, Young
CB – Bouye, Wilson, Hall, Glenn/Banks
NB – Callahan/LeBlanc
FS – Hooker, Houston-Carson/Amos
SS – Fuller, Amos/Bush

Special Teams

K- Gonzalez
P- O’Donnell
LS – Scales
Ret – Patterson, Samuel

Final Notes

If Fox can’t go 10-6 with this roster, he needs fired. And if Pace doesn’t get fired with him for missing the playoffs, for 2018 he needs to fly to Michigan (the day after playoff elimination) and hand Jim Harbaugh a contract for $8 million a year with other various privileges to come back to the NFL. Pace has made some good picks and moves, I’d like to see him keep adding quality talent and letting Harbaugh rake in the wins.
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Last edited by Sugashane on Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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DaMike


Joined: 21 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we trade down in the first 5-10 more times we can really add some players.
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Madmike90


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you would even struggle to pull this off in Madden man.
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Epyon


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could dig it, a few comments on specific guys:

I don't like McDermott, but that was admittedly because of how badly he got tooled by I think it was Garrett early in the season (and then I basically wrote him off after that).. Granted Garrett is a potentially elite player, but it does concern me that he just can't handle an NFL quality player.


The QB situation:

For starters, I don't really want Romo at all, unless he comes in as a backup/mentor.... or even better as some kind of non player consultant/coach. I don't think he can play a full season as a starter and well point #2

Secondly, and this is more of a philosophical thing, but I'm not putting Mahomes on the bench. Yes I'm aware that he's not "ready"....his footwork is a mess, he needs mechanical work, and to learn how to play in an NFL offense, but I'm still throwing him out there day 1, because he also needs NFL experience, and he isn't going to get that sitting on the bench.

Thirdly, we don't need Hoyer and Romo as a veteran backup, and I don't think we're a "win now" team with either under center next year, which further makes me want to just run w/ the rookie and get him game experience.
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malak1


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds good. Not very realistic though.
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topwop1


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cute attempt but we all know this would never happen.
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Sugashane


Joined: 06 Jan 2013
Posts: 3018
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Epyon wrote:
I could dig it, a few comments on specific guys:

I don't like McDermott, but that was admittedly because of how badly he got tooled by I think it was Garrett early in the season (and then I basically wrote him off after that).. Granted Garrett is a potentially elite player, but it does concern me that he just can't handle an NFL quality player.


The QB situation:

For starters, I don't really want Romo at all, unless he comes in as a backup/mentor.... or even better as some kind of non player consultant/coach. I don't think he can play a full season as a starter and well point #2

Secondly, and this is more of a philosophical thing, but I'm not putting Mahomes on the bench. Yes I'm aware that he's not "ready"....his footwork is a mess, he needs mechanical work, and to learn how to play in an NFL offense, but I'm still throwing him out there day 1, because he also needs NFL experience, and he isn't going to get that sitting on the bench.

Thirdly, we don't need Hoyer and Romo as a veteran backup, and I don't think we're a "win now" team with either under center next year, which further makes me want to just run w/ the rookie and get him game experience.


I totally see the concern for McDermott. I am basing it more off last year when he looked pretty good. I might have just seen him on his good days too. I just am mainly looking at his physical tools and how some guys have stepped up on the OL, and hoping for the best. I would really like Lamp but I think he's gone in the 3rd. That is why he would be behind the swing tackle.

Part of the reason I want Mahomes on the bench is because I think this will be Fox's last year, so he will be relearning a new offense anyway after this year, or McCoy would be promoted. But if he is making the right reads and is getting the ball out fast, let him rip it.
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Sugashane


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Madmike90 wrote:
I think you would even struggle to pull this off in Madden man.


True, but they won't trade Romo in Madden. lol

This is over-ambitious, but if a trade doesn't go through then fine, I'd select the same players if available or move down the line. Without Romo Hoyer gets to start and you have more cash for other players to come in, potentially one playmaker and numerous depth guys.

I do feel the Titans trade would be fairly easy, though might have to have a mid round conditional pick for 2018 in case Jeffrey doesn't extend with them, like a 3rd. I'd prefer they work a deal before the trade to avoid that and have a concrete deal.

I did botch the swap with the Panthers. I thought we did a 1st and a 3rd for Floyd and went up 2 spots, but it was a 4th. Guess I'd have to throw in our 4th in 2018 to try and balance that out. I'll edit that in too.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I need a drink.
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3-13 this season, 9-23 overall, 4-12 at home
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