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2017 Draft Thread Pt. 2
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IronMike84


Joined: 17 Jun 2009
Posts: 8301
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this time last year, roughly 70% of penciled-in starting QBs were first round picks, and roughly 15% were 2nd round picks, mostly top five in the second round.
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...internet mock drafts, which have ridiculously become the measuring stick for where players are "supposed" to go.
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 17074
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mahomes on Gruden QB Camp:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XquFLFNUIvY

Watson on Gruden QB Camp:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiivgmcRY4E

Trubisky on Gruden QB Camp:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_AUFdTs0w4
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Chewtoy


Joined: 16 Aug 2014
Posts: 46
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something feels off about the Watson situation.

- It seems to me that he has all of the intangibles - EVERYONE seems to agree he is a leader and a competitor.
- He clearly has experience. 38 starts is a fair amount of experience, WAY more than Trub, etc.
- He clearly has production. 10000+ yards, 90 TDs, Qb rating over 150
- He's a winner. 33-5 as a starter, with a national title to his name.


So, given all of that, why are teams not falling all over themselves to draft this guy? Is it just the arm strength? I mean that is probably a legit shortcoming. Is it the offense? Is it the INT's? He's got a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, pretty much identical to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. I mean, its not a race thing, is it?

I'll be the first to say I'm no scout. This is an honest, sincere question so if someone has an answer, please help me: Why is Deshawn Watson not a "generational" talent?
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GOGRIESE


Joined: 04 Dec 2006
Posts: 25940
Location: Austin Texas
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chewtoy wrote:
Something feels off about the Watson situation.

- It seems to me that he has all of the intangibles - EVERYONE seems to agree he is a leader and a competitor.
- He clearly has experience. 38 starts is a fair amount of experience, WAY more than Trub, etc.
- He clearly has production. 10000+ yards, 90 TDs, Qb rating over 150
- He's a winner. 33-5 as a starter, with a national title to his name.


So, given all of that, why are teams not falling all over themselves to draft this guy? Is it just the arm strength? I mean that is probably a legit shortcoming. Is it the offense? Is it the INT's? He's got a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, pretty much identical to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. I mean, its not a race thing, is it?

I'll be the first to say I'm no scout. This is an honest, sincere question so if someone has an answer, please help me: Why is Deshawn Watson not a "generational" talent?


It's the last two(not the race thing) for sure. The arm strength isnt an issue.
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bearsfan323


Joined: 02 Apr 2014
Posts: 2706
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chewtoy wrote:
Something feels off about the Watson situation.

- It seems to me that he has all of the intangibles - EVERYONE seems to agree he is a leader and a competitor.
- He clearly has experience. 38 starts is a fair amount of experience, WAY more than Trub, etc.
- He clearly has production. 10000+ yards, 90 TDs, Qb rating over 150
- He's a winner. 33-5 as a starter, with a national title to his name.


So, given all of that, why are teams not falling all over themselves to draft this guy? Is it just the arm strength? I mean that is probably a legit shortcoming. Is it the offense? Is it the INT's? He's got a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, pretty much identical to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. I mean, its not a race thing, is it?

I'll be the first to say I'm no scout. This is an honest, sincere question so if someone has an answer, please help me: Why is Deshawn Watson not a "generational" talent?

Never under center, not a large guy, somewhat inaccurate
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6905
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's nowhere near NFL ready, that's the biggest knock on him.

I don't get where the questions about his arm strength are coming from, dude can get it 58-60 yards consistently.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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Epyon


Joined: 02 Jan 2013
Posts: 447
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chewtoy wrote:
Something feels off about the Watson situation.

- It seems to me that he has all of the intangibles - EVERYONE seems to agree he is a leader and a competitor.
- He clearly has experience. 38 starts is a fair amount of experience, WAY more than Trub, etc.
- He clearly has production. 10000+ yards, 90 TDs, Qb rating over 150
- He's a winner. 33-5 as a starter, with a national title to his name.


So, given all of that, why are teams not falling all over themselves to draft this guy? Is it just the arm strength? I mean that is probably a legit shortcoming. Is it the offense? Is it the INT's? He's got a 3:1 TD/INT ratio, pretty much identical to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. I mean, its not a race thing, is it?

I'll be the first to say I'm no scout. This is an honest, sincere question so if someone has an answer, please help me: Why is Deshawn Watson not a "generational" talent?


1. His arm strength is blatantly sub par, and borderline undraftable.

2. His accuracy is very hit or miss, and imo reminiscent of Cutler's where he throws into the general area/often into coverage and relies on the receiver making a play.

3. He had the advantage of playing behind a massively talent stacked roster.... With a top tier defense, and draft worthy skill position talent, especially including a good-great running game, and a nearly invariably clean pocket.

4. The offense he was in based on a single half field pre-snap read... and he appeared to struggle post snap when that read wasn't there.

5. He noticeably regressed between last year and this year. Last year's Watson would have been a lock for top 5 pick.



Now of those 5 things, you can also defend some of them:

1. Arm strength: You obviously don't throw for speed when running drills at the combine (especially when trying to illustrate touch passes to receivers you've never worked with before)... And you can see numerous clips of him pushing the ball ~50 yards down field in games...... THAT BEING SAID, his ball velocity is still measurably lower than ideal, and you can also see that in the travel time of his passes giving defenders more opportunity to make a play (example, Hooker's red zone int on him)

2. Accuracy/INTs: This is harder to defend him on, but one could make the arguement that with a WR group built entirely on Alshon clones (ie big bodies who don't really get that open) you have to expect a fair amount of jump balls and INTs

3. Talent stacked team: This isn't disqualifying on it's own, but it's just harder to evaluate someone who's playing on a blatantly better team week in, week out, and figure out how much was him, vs how much was the team.

4.Offense/Scheme: Can hardly fault him for the offense his school runs, but it does raise question marks about processing/decision making when asked to do more at the NFL level

5. Year to year regresssion: Probably the least defensible part of his game, but at the same time also arguably the least impactful, as his 2016 was hardly "bad"
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6905
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hold on....


Are people SERIOUSLY questioning Deshaun Watson's arm strength?

Is it because of that effing STUPID mph nonsense from the Combine? Or are you people actually watching his tape and coming to that conclusion?
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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bearsfan323


Joined: 02 Apr 2014
Posts: 2706
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rumors are that SF badly wants to move down, but if unsuccessful, they'll take Trubisky
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Epyon


Joined: 02 Jan 2013
Posts: 447
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
Hold on....


Are people SERIOUSLY questioning Deshaun Watson's arm strength?

Is it because of that effing STUPID mph nonsense from the Combine? Or are you people actually watching his tape and coming to that conclusion?


Both.... His arm is borderline undraftable.
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GOGRIESE


Joined: 04 Dec 2006
Posts: 25940
Location: Austin Texas
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The main thing is I wouldnt want Watson running head first like he often does. He loves to hit people. That needs to stop.
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GOGRIESE


Joined: 04 Dec 2006
Posts: 25940
Location: Austin Texas
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Epyon wrote:
G08 wrote:
Hold on....


Are people SERIOUSLY questioning Deshaun Watson's arm strength?

Is it because of that effing STUPID mph nonsense from the Combine? Or are you people actually watching his tape and coming to that conclusion?


Both.... His arm is borderline undraftable.


Oh come on. That's hyperbole at it's finest. Show me one throw on tape where his arm is borderline undraftable.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6905
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Epyon wrote:
G08 wrote:
Hold on....


Are people SERIOUSLY questioning Deshaun Watson's arm strength?

Is it because of that effing STUPID mph nonsense from the Combine? Or are you people actually watching his tape and coming to that conclusion?


Both.... His arm is borderline undraftable.


No disrespect here, but that's the stupidest thing I've read on this board in a while.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft


"I thought it was a stroke of genius. You give [Pace] an A++++ for the move to get Trubisky. That was magnificient." - Bill Polian
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Chewtoy


Joined: 16 Aug 2014
Posts: 46
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Divorcing the players of everything but stats (which only a moron would do, I realize...) I am surprised by how similar Peyton and Watson's college stat lines look:

Watson: 38 starts, 10,168 yards, 67.4% comp, 90 Tds, 32 Ints, 157.5 rating
Manning:45 starts, 11,201 yards, 62.5% comp, 89 Tds, 33 Ints, 147.1 rating

And Peyton's team was sort of loaded, too. Shaun Ellis, Terry Fair, Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry, Leonard Little, Peerless Price, Deon Grant....

I don't think they are that comparable. And Manning was in a pro style offense, which is huge. But it does make me skeptical of some of the nits ( Ints, accuracy, loaded team).
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gah112


Joined: 30 Jan 2015
Posts: 817
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
No disrespect here, but that's the stupidest thing I've read on this board in a while.


He had several throws picked off this season on balls that floated and often underthrows the deep ball.
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