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WindyCity


Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 15364
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gah112 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


4 of the top 10 QBs by passer rating were drafted after the 1st round.

4 of the 8 QBs starting this round of the playoffs were drafted after the 1st round.


How many misses did it take the NFL to find those guys?

How many teams should have taken those guys in the 1st round and chickened out and took a safer 5 technique?

You can try and win the lottery to get rich or you can invest your money in the best stocks.
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WindyCity


Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 15364
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
https://i.reddituploads.com/f1be5d3a90304a8fa9e3f0af6bd0de5c?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=8638bf07e618395178c0b0268cfde8c1

Does that bother anyone?


No. You can find comparable stats to match with anyone.

Call me when Geno shreds Bama and then shreds them again.
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IotaNet


Joined: 26 Jan 2013
Posts: 187
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Josh Allen is returning to school ...

http://trib.com/sports/college/wyoming/football/wyoming-quarterback-josh-allen-returning-for-redshirt-junior-season/article_d5cb85b1-7211-5a01-8fa2-d5d457442cd6.html
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- Peter King on the difference between the Bears under Trestman vs. under John Fox
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Epyon


Joined: 02 Jan 2013
Posts: 239
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AZBearsFan wrote:
The problem with passing on QB at 3 and not trading down is that you're adding a huge variable to the equation and changing drastically why you have to do before the draft. Say we do take Allen at 3, but then by pick 12 all of Tru/Watson/Kizer are off the board and Pace doesn't like Mahoney/Kaaya. If he hasn't already added Taylor or willing to pay what would then be a rising price for Garoppolo if he hasn't already been moved then we are totally and completely screwed. That has to factor in too.


That's a good point, there is risk by not picking one at #3, and there does need to be a plan for that... On the same token, the general consensus is that all the QBs in this draft are going to need a redshirt year in the pros, so I think that plan has to have already been handled before the draft even comes.

I personally like the Taylor option, since he's more mobile and takes care of the ball, and thus could run the exact same scheme as either Mahomes or Watson... but the staff may prefer someone like Hoyer who they have more experience with personality wise, or who may be a better personality fit mentor wise. I'd put extra emphasis on the personality to mentor part too, since we'd be grabbing someone who's main job is preparing the future QB, ahead of even being the current QB.

I'd also add, that even if Mahomes is the guy Pace wants.... (and feel free to substitute your own guy's name in there) There's certainly no guarantee that you get him in the 2nd round, and there may not even be a guarantee that you land him in the back half of the first..... Different teams could have different boards and he could go earlier than expected, you may be flat out unable to trade up to where you need, or there could just be a run on QBs in general..

Kyle Long, for example, got picked something like a full round ahead of where he was "supposed" to be picked... So even if he's projected much later, if Pace really had confidence that he was the guy, then he may have to go and make the pick. He'd probably get a ton of *poop* for it, much like our old GM did picking Kyle Long (or Pace did for BOTH Kevin White over Vic Beasley and just picking Leonard Floyd in general).... but it's his job to make those kinds of calls, and if you don't think they're going to make it to your next pick (or don't want to risk it) it may have to be done...

Even with all the "top 4" QBs (Mahomes/Watson/Trubisky/Kizer) having warts and numerous scouts tossing out non first round grades for all of them, I still wouldn't be at all surprised to see all 4 go in the top 15.... Simply because the expectation would be that they don't make it to the 2nd round and because there's a bunch of QB-desperate team who don't want to get stuck with a game manager/mentor QB under center, and no future QB who can be mentored behind them.
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gah112


Joined: 30 Jan 2015
Posts: 589
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
https://i.reddituploads.com/f1be5d3a90304a8fa9e3f0af6bd0de5c?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=8638bf07e618395178c0b0268cfde8c1

Does that bother anyone?


The comparison doesn't bother me, but I'm a bit concerned that he regressed in a few areas. I'm also not thrilled that he throws so many INTs while also having such a low AYPA.
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topwop1


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 7525
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
I can't tell you how he meant it, but I think you are taking too much from the "like Carr" part of the quote. I interpreted it as a franchise QB in every draft.

But most of those come from the first round.


You are correct sir. This is exactly what I meant but clearly we have some damn ignorant people on this board!

In theory, yes you can find a franchise QB like Carr in every draft. I didn't say you will guaranteed get a franchise QB, or better yet get someone with his EXACT same skill set and who will have an EXACTLY similar career.

There are talented QB's that come out out every year who have the POTENTIAL to be a franchise guy. It doesn't always work out of course, as the NFL has shown there are not 32 franchise quality QB's starting for every team.

Again I'll re-hash my point that it takes a lot of work from both the player and the teams who draft that player in order for that player to realize their full potential.

You can't just plug and play any top prospect in any draft and expect them to be great right off the bat.

So those clamoring for any other position than QB at #3, just realize that it's no guarantee that any other player, ie. Johnathan Allen, Myles Garrett, Jamal Adams, etc. is going to be a good NFL player.
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Nads786


Joined: 11 Sep 2005
Posts: 4565
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the below is a great illustration on how important the QB is in the draft. Fitzgerald was taken 7 spots higher than Big Ben. Larry is a HOF WR but the impact Ben has had on the steelers is on another level.

Even if you hit on your player a QB is more important. Side note the Browns and Jags are just terrible drafting teams...

1 1 San Diego Chargers Eli Manning † QB Ole Miss SEC traded to New York Giants[7]
1 2 Oakland Raiders Robert Gallery OT Iowa Big Ten
1 3 Arizona Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald † WR Pittsburgh Big East
1 4 New York Giants Philip Rivers † QB NC State ACC traded to San Diego[8]
1 5 Washington Redskins Sean Taylor † S Miami (FL) Big East Deceased
1 6 Cleveland Browns Kellen Winslow II † TE Miami (FL) Big East from Detroit[9]
1 7 Detroit Lions Roy Williams † WR Texas Big 12 from Cleveland[9]
1 8 Atlanta Falcons DeAngelo Hall † CB Virginia Tech Big East
1 9 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Williams WR Washington Pac-10
1 10 Houston Texans Dunta Robinson CB South Carolina SEC
1 11 Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger † QB Miami (OH) MAC
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51to54


Joined: 29 Jun 2008
Posts: 1705
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Epyon wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
The problem with passing on QB at 3 and not trading down is that you're adding a huge variable to the equation and changing drastically why you have to do before the draft. Say we do take Allen at 3, but then by pick 12 all of Tru/Watson/Kizer are off the board and Pace doesn't like Mahoney/Kaaya. If he hasn't already added Taylor or willing to pay what would then be a rising price for Garoppolo if he hasn't already been moved then we are totally and completely screwed. That has to factor in too.


That's a good point, there is risk by not picking one at #3, and there does need to be a plan for that... On the same token, the general consensus is that all the QBs in this draft are going to need a redshirt year in the pros, so I think that plan has to have already been handled before the draft even comes.

I personally like the Taylor option, since he's more mobile and takes care of the ball, and thus could run the exact same scheme as either Mahomes or Watson... but the staff may prefer someone like Hoyer who they have more experience with personality wise, or who may be a better personality fit mentor wise. I'd put extra emphasis on the personality to mentor part too, since we'd be grabbing someone who's main job is preparing the future QB, ahead of even being the current QB.

I'd also add, that even if Mahomes is the guy Pace wants.... (and feel free to substitute your own guy's name in there) There's certainly no guarantee that you get him in the 2nd round, and there may not even be a guarantee that you land him in the back half of the first..... Different teams could have different boards and he could go earlier than expected, you may be flat out unable to trade up to where you need, or there could just be a run on QBs in general..

Kyle Long, for example, got picked something like a full round ahead of where he was "supposed" to be picked... So even if he's projected much later, if Pace really had confidence that he was the guy, then he may have to go and make the pick. He'd probably get a ton of *poop* for it, much like our old GM did picking Kyle Long (or Pace did for BOTH Kevin White over Vic Beasley and just picking Leonard Floyd in general).... but it's his job to make those kinds of calls, and if you don't think they're going to make it to your next pick (or don't want to risk it) it may have to be done...

Even with all the "top 4" QBs (Mahomes/Watson/Trubisky/Kizer) having warts and numerous scouts tossing out non first round grades for all of them, I still wouldn't be at all surprised to see all 4 go in the top 15.... Simply because the expectation would be that they don't make it to the 2nd round and because there's a bunch of QB-desperate team who don't want to get stuck with a game manager/mentor QB under center, and no future QB who can be mentored behind them.

Yes! If the GM believes a guy on the board is an all pro player, you don't skip on him because it's the second round and the player is only projected to be a third round pick. How the player does as a pro matters, not what 'never managed a team' Mel Kiper thinks. Now a GM can leverage his picks by passing on a guy in a round because he's gambling that no one else will pick the guy up before the GM's next pick, but that's different than passing on a guy because the draft 'experts' will say you picked him a round early.
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 16641
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
G08 wrote:
https://i.reddituploads.com/f1be5d3a90304a8fa9e3f0af6bd0de5c?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=8638bf07e618395178c0b0268cfde8c1

Does that bother anyone?


No. You can find comparable stats to match with anyone.

Call me when Geno shreds Bama and then shreds them again.


Yup. A prospect is more than just the stats he puts up. You can have bad prospects with amazing stats and good prospects with average stats.
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topwop1


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 7525
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
Yup. A prospect is more than just the stats he puts up. You can have bad prospects with amazing stats and good prospects with average stats.


Agreed.

Although stats still play a role in the evaluation process, they are not as important as having the ability to make NFL caliber throws, having the football IQ to read and understand plays, having the ability to make quick and good decisions with the football and having the leadership and other intangible qualities that make up the good to great QB's.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6140
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
G08 wrote:
https://i.reddituploads.com/f1be5d3a90304a8fa9e3f0af6bd0de5c?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=8638bf07e618395178c0b0268cfde8c1

Does that bother anyone?


No. You can find comparable stats to match with anyone.

Call me when Geno shreds Bama and then shreds them again.


Yup. A prospect is more than just the stats he puts up. You can have bad prospects with amazing stats and good prospects with average stats.


Doesn't worry you even a smidge? I have to say, it gave me a little pause for concern. I don't want to jump on the train full-tilt just yet. Still in the information/data gathering process.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allows 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears are 36-7
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 16641
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
TankWilliams wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
G08 wrote:
https://i.reddituploads.com/f1be5d3a90304a8fa9e3f0af6bd0de5c?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=8638bf07e618395178c0b0268cfde8c1

Does that bother anyone?


No. You can find comparable stats to match with anyone.

Call me when Geno shreds Bama and then shreds them again.


Yup. A prospect is more than just the stats he puts up. You can have bad prospects with amazing stats and good prospects with average stats.


Doesn't worry you even a smidge? I have to say, it gave me a little pause for concern. I don't want to jump on the train full-tilt just yet. Still in the information/data gathering process.


No, because I haven't made my assessments on either Deshaun Watson or Geno Smith based on stats.
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 16641
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even if you look at the stats as a fair comparison (which I don't), there is one MASSIVE difference between Geno Smith and Deshaun Watson. Character.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1626800-new-york-jets-geno-smiths-character-could-lead-to-his-downfall


Quote:
It has been a tumultuous couple of days for Geno Smith and his PR team. Days after falling to the second round and being drafted by the New York Jets, Smith fired his agents Jeff Nalley and Eric Burkhardt, claiming the firing was due to "a number of things."

But maybe Smith's agents weren't the reason he dropped from being a top-10 pick to a second round selection.

Yesterday afternoon, Yahoo! Sports reported that Smith wouldn't interact with or listen to coaches in meetings. One league executive even said that Smith has the talent, but that he "doesn't know what he doesn't know." The same executive went on to say that Smith "thinks he's got it all down."


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/01/nawrocki-provides-scathing-assessment-of-geno-smith/

Quote:
Apart from Nawrocki’s critique of Smith’s mechanics, Nawrocki adds this assessment of Smith: “Not a student of the game. Nonchalant field presence — does not command respect from teammates and cannot inspire. Mild practice demeanor — no urgency. Not committed or focused — marginal work ethic. Interviewed poorly at the Combine and did not show an understanding of concepts on the white board. Opted not to compete at the Senior Bowl and has approached offseason training as if he has already arrived and it shows in his body with minimal muscle definition or strength. Has small hands and glaring ball security issues (32 career fumbles). Really struggled handling the snow in Pinstripe Bowl (took two safeties) and will be troubled by the elements. Needed to be coddled in college — cannot handle hard coaching.”



http://www.businessinsider.com/jets-geno-smith-punched-ik-enemkpali-fight-2015-8

Quote:
Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News also spoke to players on the Jets who said Smith "deserved" to be punched:

Smith "was up in (Enemkpali’s) face and pointed/touched his face," according to a source.

"Geno deserved it," another source said.

...

It’s unclear how matters escalated, but Smith’s finger-pointing in his teammate’s face was grounds for a punch, according to some.

"That’ll get a man hit every time, especially one that hasn’t earned respect," a source said.

In the immediate aftermath of the fight, cornerback Darrelle Revis said he holds both players responsible, which was the original suggestion that perhaps Smith wasn't blameless in the incident.

As Clark said, Smith didn't deserve to be punched — and certainly not forced out for half of the season in what many consider a make-or-break year — but it sounds like he didn't act responsibly. Very few Jets players have come to his defense since the incident.


If anyone can show me any credible source or report saying that Watson is anything less than a stellar person or on the field leader, I'll take a second look. But from all accounts, he has the work ethic, leadership, character, talent, and drive to become a nfl quarterback.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6140
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
Even if you look at the stats as a fair comparison (which I don't), there is one MASSIVE difference between Geno Smith and Deshaun Watson. Character.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1626800-new-york-jets-geno-smiths-character-could-lead-to-his-downfall


Quote:
It has been a tumultuous couple of days for Geno Smith and his PR team. Days after falling to the second round and being drafted by the New York Jets, Smith fired his agents Jeff Nalley and Eric Burkhardt, claiming the firing was due to "a number of things."

But maybe Smith's agents weren't the reason he dropped from being a top-10 pick to a second round selection.

Yesterday afternoon, Yahoo! Sports reported that Smith wouldn't interact with or listen to coaches in meetings. One league executive even said that Smith has the talent, but that he "doesn't know what he doesn't know." The same executive went on to say that Smith "thinks he's got it all down."


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/01/nawrocki-provides-scathing-assessment-of-geno-smith/

Quote:
Apart from Nawrocki’s critique of Smith’s mechanics, Nawrocki adds this assessment of Smith: “Not a student of the game. Nonchalant field presence — does not command respect from teammates and cannot inspire. Mild practice demeanor — no urgency. Not committed or focused — marginal work ethic. Interviewed poorly at the Combine and did not show an understanding of concepts on the white board. Opted not to compete at the Senior Bowl and has approached offseason training as if he has already arrived and it shows in his body with minimal muscle definition or strength. Has small hands and glaring ball security issues (32 career fumbles). Really struggled handling the snow in Pinstripe Bowl (took two safeties) and will be troubled by the elements. Needed to be coddled in college — cannot handle hard coaching.”



http://www.businessinsider.com/jets-geno-smith-punched-ik-enemkpali-fight-2015-8

Quote:
Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News also spoke to players on the Jets who said Smith "deserved" to be punched:

Smith "was up in (Enemkpali’s) face and pointed/touched his face," according to a source.

"Geno deserved it," another source said.

...

It’s unclear how matters escalated, but Smith’s finger-pointing in his teammate’s face was grounds for a punch, according to some.

"That’ll get a man hit every time, especially one that hasn’t earned respect," a source said.

In the immediate aftermath of the fight, cornerback Darrelle Revis said he holds both players responsible, which was the original suggestion that perhaps Smith wasn't blameless in the incident.

As Clark said, Smith didn't deserve to be punched — and certainly not forced out for half of the season in what many consider a make-or-break year — but it sounds like he didn't act responsibly. Very few Jets players have come to his defense since the incident.


If anyone can show me any credible source or report saying that Watson is anything less than a stellar person or on the field leader, I'll take a second look. But from all accounts, he has the work ethic, leadership, character, talent, and drive to become a nfl quarterback.


Shocked

I didn't know any of that -- thanks for sharing.

Sounds like a Grade A P-O-S.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allows 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears are 36-7
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6140
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All 17 of Watson's INTs from this season

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGP_uJfqzL0
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allows 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears are 36-7
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