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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6644
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pigsooie5 wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
I think Garrett, Allen, Hooker and Adams are special players. They all probably offer a significant upgrade over a similar player in round 2.

But I agree with your sentiment.

I am hunting QBs in this draft, the only way I go defense I if I have some plan at QB (Garoppolo or McCarron) that does not involve drafting one.

How much better than Akiem Hicks is Allen likely to be though? We got Hicks in 2nd tier FA and he was a dominating week in week out impact player. Do you really see Allen being more than that? To justify a 5T at #3 I need him to be JJ Watt when the trade off is passing on a QB with franchise QB potential.


if everyone drafted top 3 on the DL was JJ Watt we'd have 20 of them across the league. By that notion, if we're drafting a QB top 3 he better be Peyton Manning.


Just like if there was a Derek Carr level franchise QB in every draft, see, this guy gets it Laughing
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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Nads786


Joined: 11 Sep 2005
Posts: 4579
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For those wondering about Russell Wilson's draft report:

OVERVIEW
Wilson is this year's big-time question mark at quarterback. Unlike those who have held this title in the past, Wilson is a stellar passer who shows arm strength and accuracy when he is able to deliver the ball without a hitch. A transfer from North Carolina St. over the summer, he has outstanding football intelligence as he picked up the Wisconsin offense in a short time and was the opening-day starter. However, at his height teams will have concerns whether or not he can see to make the throws at the next level. He is a mechanical mover who has strong technique and leadership qualities. If Wilson were three inches taller there would be debate at the top of the draft as to where he fits in, but look for teams to take a flier on him in late rounds to see if he can develop and outplay his size.
ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS Wilson is an accurate passer. He is a very mechanical quarterback who is consistent in his drop step and thoroughly understands how to move within the pocket and evade when the pocket collapses. He is an athlete and can torque his body to make any sort of throw on the run, and is accurate in this setting. He is a born signal caller who shows command of the offense. He has the arm strength to make the deep throws and the touch to put it on a receiver in stride. He is effective when scrambling and is a classic play extender.

WEAKNESSES Wilson's height will be his biggest inhibitor at the next level and the largest reason for his late-round value. It remains to be seen if he can throw effectively from the pocket at the next level.


Safe to say he would have been a true top 10 pick in the first round if he was 3 inches taller.
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topwop1


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
Posts: 7708
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pigsooie5 wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
I think Garrett, Allen, Hooker and Adams are special players. They all probably offer a significant upgrade over a similar player in round 2.

But I agree with your sentiment.

I am hunting QBs in this draft, the only way I go defense I if I have some plan at QB (Garoppolo or McCarron) that does not involve drafting one.

How much better than Akiem Hicks is Allen likely to be though? We got Hicks in 2nd tier FA and he was a dominating week in week out impact player. Do you really see Allen being more than that? To justify a 5T at #3 I need him to be JJ Watt when the trade off is passing on a QB with franchise QB potential.

A lot of issues with this post. First off, finding guys like Aliem Hicks who dominate in the 2nd tier of FA is far from the norm. Props to Pace for doing his homework on that one but you absolutely cannot bank on it. Hicks played comparable to Suh this season, I think Allen will be a Fletcher Cox like player in the NFL, is that better than Suh/Hicks? Debatable. You can't say this guy better be JJ Watt if we're drafting him #3 overall, if everyone drafted top 3 on the DL was JJ Watt we'd have 20 of them across the league. By that notion, if we're drafting a QB top 3 he better be Peyton Manning.


Just like you cannot absolutely bank on Jonathan Allen being an impact player in the NFL. It is all projection right now. Just like with any QB in this draft or next year's draft, etc.

This is why I don't understand people wanting to take their chances and wait until next year to address the Bears most glaring need and the most important position in all of football at QB.

There is no guarantee that by waiting next year that this team will be any better off or will have a good opportunity at finding that guy at QB.

You are in a position now to address that glaring need. You do not know what the future holds. You have to take a calculated chance.
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gah112


Joined: 30 Jan 2015
Posts: 756
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

topwop1 wrote:

Just like you cannot absolutely bank on Jonathan Allen being an impact player in the NFL. It is all projection right now. Just like with any QB in this draft or next year's draft, etc.

This is why I don't understand people wanting to take their chances and wait until next year to address the Bears most glaring need and the most important position in all of football at QB.

There is no guarantee that by waiting next year that this team will be any better off or will have a good opportunity at finding that guy at QB.

You are in a position now to address that glaring need. You do not know what the future holds. You have to take a calculated chance.


It's a preference. Some people are more confident in Hooker, Allen, Garrett, or Barnett than they are in Watson or Trubisky.
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topwop1


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gah112 wrote:
topwop1 wrote:

Just like you cannot absolutely bank on Jonathan Allen being an impact player in the NFL. It is all projection right now. Just like with any QB in this draft or next year's draft, etc.

This is why I don't understand people wanting to take their chances and wait until next year to address the Bears most glaring need and the most important position in all of football at QB.

There is no guarantee that by waiting next year that this team will be any better off or will have a good opportunity at finding that guy at QB.

You are in a position now to address that glaring need. You do not know what the future holds. You have to take a calculated chance.


It's a preference. Some people are more confident in Hooker, Allen, Garrett, or Barnett than they are in Watson or Trubisky.


I get that, but at the end of the day there are no guarantees with any of these prospects, so to say that the Bears will be better off if they take say Jonathan Allen vs Deshaun Watson is a premature and short sighted prediction, especially considering the greater impact that an elite level or even above average QB has over an elite 5T in this game.
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WindyCity


Joined: 26 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.
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3-13 this season, 9-23 overall, 4-12 at home
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
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Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


Bingo.

Deep corner, safety, pass rusher, and TE class. All things we need and we have the luxury of picking high in each round.

Waiting until day 2 or even thinking about trading back into round 1 is gambling, and I'd rather not roll the dice on our future. Just take the damn guy you want.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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gah112


Joined: 30 Jan 2015
Posts: 756
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


4 of the top 10 QBs by passer rating were drafted after the 1st round.

4 of the 8 QBs starting this round of the playoffs were drafted after the 1st round.
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 16933
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gah112 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


4 of the top 10 QBs by passer rating were drafted after the 1st round.

4 of the 8 QBs starting this round of the playoffs were drafted after the 1st round.


So those things must mean it is completely easy to find guys like them after the first, right?
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6644
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
gah112 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


4 of the top 10 QBs by passer rating were drafted after the 1st round.

4 of the 8 QBs starting this round of the playoffs were drafted after the 1st round.


So those things must mean it is completely easy to find guys like them after the first, right?


There's a Derek Carr franchise QB in EVERY draft, Tank. EVERY.

Razz
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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TankWilliams


Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 16933
Location: Chicago
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
TankWilliams wrote:
gah112 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


4 of the top 10 QBs by passer rating were drafted after the 1st round.

4 of the 8 QBs starting this round of the playoffs were drafted after the 1st round.


So those things must mean it is completely easy to find guys like them after the first, right?


There's a Derek Carr franchise QB in EVERY draft, Tank. EVERY.

Razz


I can't tell you how he meant it, but I think you are taking too much from the "like Carr" part of the quote. I interpreted it as a franchise QB in every draft.

But most of those come from the first round.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6644
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
G08 wrote:
TankWilliams wrote:
gah112 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


4 of the top 10 QBs by passer rating were drafted after the 1st round.

4 of the 8 QBs starting this round of the playoffs were drafted after the 1st round.


So those things must mean it is completely easy to find guys like them after the first, right?


There's a Derek Carr franchise QB in EVERY draft, Tank. EVERY.

Razz


I can't tell you how he meant it, but I think you are taking too much from the "like Carr" part of the quote. I interpreted it as a franchise QB in every draft.

But most of those come from the first round.


He chose the name Derek Carr for a reason, but I was just trying to bring light to your convo, I'm not re-hashing that. Smile

I think as a GM you really have to hammer down traits you value, find those players, then break down the tape and see if those dudes can fit your system.

His interview with us, getting him on the chalkboard, is going to be huge. Leadership, production, production against elite competition, and success on the big stage is all there. Arm strength and athleticism is there, it boils down to height/weight and reading defenses.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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gah112


Joined: 30 Jan 2015
Posts: 756
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TankWilliams wrote:
gah112 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
It is easier to find a good safety or 5 technique in the 2nd and 3rd round than it is a QB.

That will factor into the math for the 3rd pick.


4 of the top 10 QBs by passer rating were drafted after the 1st round.

4 of the 8 QBs starting this round of the playoffs were drafted after the 1st round.


So those things must mean it is completely easy to find guys like them after the first, right?


No, but they show that quality QBs can be found outside of the 1st round.

FWIW 6 of the 10 top DTs by sacks were picked in the 1st round. Not sure how the breakdown would have looked in previous years.
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AZBearsFan


Joined: 04 Feb 2006
Posts: 13071
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem with passing on QB at 3 and not trading down is that you're adding a huge variable to the equation and changing drastically why you have to do before the draft. Say we do take Allen at 3, but then by pick 12 all of Tru/Watson/Kizer are off the board and Pace doesn't like Mahoney/Kaaya. If he hasn't already added Taylor or willing to pay what would then be a rising price for Garoppolo if he hasn't already been moved then we are totally and completely screwed. That has to factor in too.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://i.reddituploads.com/f1be5d3a90304a8fa9e3f0af6bd0de5c?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=8638bf07e618395178c0b0268cfde8c1

Does that bother anyone?
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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