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2017 KC Chiefs Roster Analysis - The Salary Cap Situation
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:28 am    Post subject: 2017 KC Chiefs Roster Analysis - The Salary Cap Situation Reply with quote

Disclaimer:
I’ll base my cap deliberations on overthecap.com. Only where I have doubts about the correctness of their data will I crosscheck with other sites. If you think there’s a data error – let me know and I will check.

An Overview:
The 2017 cap situation will be defined by contracts the Chiefs signed or extended over the past two years. Many of them were backloaded and kick into full gear only now. While Smith's and Maclin's numbers remain constant, Houston (+9.0 M$), Fisher (+2.6 M$), Hali (+4.8 M$), Kelce (+2.4 M$), Reid (+1.8 M$), and Schwartz (+4.5 M$) will count a cumulative 25.1 M$ more against the cap than they did this year. (I deliberately excluded Foles here, as he won't be with the team in 2017 under his current contract).

On the bright side the Chiefs again will face rather little dead money: about 1.15 M$, resulting from the releases of K. Russell and R. Wilson.

But after all is said and done Overthecap.com lists the Chiefs at 168.2 M$ for 49 Players, 2.2 M$ above the assumed 2017 cap of 166 M$. And this does not include a potential flaw in maths concerning Mauga's numbers which could add another 3 M$ to the bill, and two additional players at 500 k$ each to add another 1 M$.

Some relief may be gained by rolling over some unused 2016 cap. The NFLPA currently lists the Chiefs at about 5 M$ below the cap.

Putting it all together the Chiefs as they stand now could be about 1.2 M$ over the cap when offseason starts - assuming a 166 M$ cap allowance and no roster moves. This is a significant handicap compared to last year, when the Chiefs had about 21 M$ of cap available.They will need to get REALLY creative to find ways to re-sign Berry and/or Poe.


Clearing more cap by releasing players (in brackets: dead money/cap savings):

Remember: you have to find a replacement for the guy - and the cost for the replacement has to be deducted from the cap savings listed!

N. Foles (0 M$/10.75 M$) – An obvious move. Tom Brady makes about 14 M$/yr (albeit on a hometown discount contract). UPDATE: Foles contract obviously is only 6.75 M$ - released
J. Charles (0 M$/7.0 M$) – This will depend on his health status. He'll probably have to take a pay cut or a heavily incentivized contract to stay. - released
D. Johnson (5.5 M$/2.25 M$) – Another health related move. He's nearing the and of the line in any case. Lots of dead money involved due to 2 M$ base salary guarantee. This would void if he retires. - pay cut
D. Colquitt (0.8 M$/4.1 M$) – close to 4.9 M$ is pretty much dough for a punter.
J. Mauga (0.75 M$/3.0 M$) – With the issues the Chiefs have at ILB I don't think this is an option early in offseason. - released
J. Reid (1.55 M$/2.05 M$) His contract increases significantly. Not sure a backup OL is worth 3.6 M$.
T. Bray (0 M$/1.2 M$) – This would leave no backup QB with experience of the team. However: Did he develop enough to stick?
J. Howard (2.5 M$/4.0 M$) - Don't consider him likely to be cut. But a trade would help as well?
A. Sherman (0.5 M$/1.8 M$) - Is his contribution worth the money he makes? I would think so. - pay cut

I don't consider a release of A. Smith or J. Maclin a realistic option, so I won't discuss them here. T. Hali might be considered an option by many, but releasing him actually creates more dead money than cap relief due to a fully guaranteed base salary (or minimal saving if declared a June 2 release). That guarantee would void if he retires - but why would he skip on 5.75 M$?? As much as I like Hali, I really hate this contract.

Anyone else would save less than 1 M$ - so that’s pretty irrelevant.

Clearing more cap by re-structuring contracts:

Houston, A. Smith, Maclin, Kelce, and more. But I hate this idea without an urgent need to do so. You kill your flexibility for future years.

Clearing more cap by extending players:

There are few options to take this approach as the Chiefs addressed this issue offensively over the past two years. Contracts expiring after 2017 are either of the low budget kind and would not provide any relief, or involve players probably looking for a bigger payday. Some bigger contracts will be up after 2018 (A. Smith, Bailey, Howard) but I don't think the Chiefs have the flexibility to address them now. If the Chiefs believe he will fully recover and still have something left in the tank, J. Charles' and D. Colquitt's contracts may be the only one to consider, if the Chiefs consider to keep them longer term.

Bottom line: The Chiefs will have to make fundamental decisions on how to proceed with a whole bunch of long time veterans. They may be able to survive another year keeping them around - or they pull the plug now and retain some younger players in their prime like Berry and Poe.

Update: Josh Mauga is a free agent. That solves the maths issue mentioned above, but adds another 750 k$ in dead money.

From here I'll use the OTC numbers for cap considerations:

Assumed cap: 168 M$
Rollover: 5 M$
Top 51: 168 M$
Free cap: 5 M$

Update 28 Feb: Chiefs sign Eric Berry. 6 yr, 78 M$, 20 M$ signing bonus. I assume they'll add veteran minimum year one (900 k$). My contract break down here. Cap hit 2017: 4.9 M$. Remaining cap: 700 k$
Update 28 Feb: Chiefs release Jamaal Charles, gain 6.2 M$ in cap. Remaining cap: 6.3 M$
Update 1 Mar: Cap officially set at 167 M$, 1 M$ less than expected. Remaining cap: 5.3 M$
Update 2 Mar: Zach Fulton and LDT receive an playing time bonus (CBA mandated) of approx 1.2 M$ each. Remaining cap: 2.9 M$
Update 2 Mar: LDT receives 10 M$ signing bonus, amounting to an additional 2 M$ cap hit in 2017. Remaining cap: 0.9 M$
Update 8 Mar: Dan Sorensen and Cairo Santos tendered as RFA at 2nd round (2.7 M$) and low level (1.8 M$) respectively. Effects cap situation only when they sign.
Update 9 Mar: Team declines Nick Foles' 2017 team option. Remaining cap: 7.05 M$
Update 9 Mar: Albert Wilson tendered at low level (1.8 M$). Effects cap situation only when he signs.
Update 10 Mar: Mike Person signs minimum benefit contract. No cap effect. Remaining cap: 7.05 M$
Update 13 Mar: Bennie Logan signs 1 year contract. Cap hit: 8 M$. Remaining cap: -0.35 M$
Update 17 Mar: Derrick Johnson and Anthony Sherman agree to pay cuts (4.8 M$ combined). Remaining cap: 4.45 M$
Update 17 Mar: Marqueston Huff signs 1 year contract. No cap impact (unconfirmed). Remaining cap: 4.45 M$
Update 22 March: Received confirmation on adding the RFA tenders: They count against the cap when issued. Thus, cleaning up the mess above any further: Adding Santos' and Wilson's RFA tender add 1.2 M$ each. Remaining cap: 2.05 M$.
Update 22 March: Checked old files and figured out that OTC still had the 10.75 M$ for Foles when I drew the original data. This clears another 4 M$. Remaining cap: 6.05 M$
Update 22 March: Missed the Sorensen signing. OTC has his number at 1.7 M$, which seems reasonable. Remaining cap: 4.95 M$
Update 22 March: Chiefs re-sign Jarvis Jenkins. Probably no cap implications (unconfirmed). Remaining cap: 4.95 M$
Update 1 April: Chiefs sign TE Gavin Escobar. No cap implications.

The Chiefs will need about 1.5 M$ to sign their draft picks.
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Last edited by KC_Guy on Sat Apr 01, 2017 10:27 am; edited 22 times in total
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mayanfootball


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, this is Management's 4th year at the helm. Compare the accomplishments to the age and makeup of the current roster.
No Division titles. One playoff win. Some might think that's skimpy pick'ns for the talent on this roster and all that's been invested to finally make the Chiefs champions again.
The current season isn't over, but recent backsliding by the team has jeopardized playoff hopes the team has.
Reid, Sutton and Co. should be on the hot seat to deliver the goods to fans who've waited years and decades for an NFL championship caliber team.
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NFLPA reports the Chiefs will carry over 5 M$ from 2016 to 2017. That's pretty much in line with my original considerations.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2atC_PUUAErqs4.jpg:large
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Matt Verderame ‏@MattVerderame

Goodell says current CBA working "incredibly well." Says salary cap could jump $15 million this season


If this is true it should add another 4 M$ to the teams' available cap space and provide a bit more flexibility. The base cap would be at approx. 170 M$ then, previous estimates put it around 166 M$
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kingseanjohn


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That should help with re-signing Berry. I'm a little worried about the cap over the next two years. We have a lot of contracts coming up that need extending.
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mayanfootball


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adam Teicher had 5 suggestions for helping the Chiefs out of their "rut"
http://www.espn.com/blog/kansas-city-chiefs/post/_/id/20299/here-are-five-suggestions-to-break-chiefs-out-of-their-rut
Included were the decisions to release Jamaal Charles, D.Poe and Eric Berry. The CAP savings would be substantial.
I have no issues with losing Charles and Poe. I've already stated this elsewhere. I would prefer to keep Berry and believe he's got another 4-5 years of good playing time left, if he can stay healthy.
KC also needs to cull the roster of driftwood and reload it with good draft prospects.
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kingseanjohn


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 2:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Poe and Berry are free agents. They don't count anything against the cap at this time.
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mayanfootball


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kingseanjohn wrote:
Poe and Berry are free agents. They don't count anything against the cap at this time.
Yes, which gives us little wiggle room until we do sign 1 or both.
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samsel23


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My general rule of thumb is don't cut anyone, if you can't find their replacement with this cost savings.

Jah Reid
Jamaal Charles
Josh Mauga (I guess he's already gone)
Nick Foles

Are all guys I saw as already gone.

Anthony Sherman and Dustin Colquitt and 2 I would like to keep by extending their contracts a bit, but I could see them gone at their current $$.
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TedLavie


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1/ Cut Foles, that's a gimme
2/ Restructure Houston: next year we can save 32M by cutting Alex, Tamba and DJ so I think we can offer to restructure 5M of Houston base contract
3/ Cut Jamaal: that's sad, but he is a often injured 30yrs old RB. I think he still has a couple of years of greatness in him, unfortunately it will have to be showcased somewhere else. Ware is our guy now
4/ Cut Colquitt and replace him with an average punter: should save us 2M in the process
5/ Cut Bailey and Reid: would save us around 5M of cap

Suddenly we can resign Berry for 15M a year, sign all draft picks and have 7M left of cap to sign a good run stuffing NT with no pass rush ability and a #3 safety.

If Berry stays, Poe is gone and I'm okay with that. He can be a beast but he's inconsistent and has nagging back injuries.
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mayanfootball


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
and have 7M left of cap to sign a good run stuffing NT with no pass rush ability
The guy I want is J.Tupou. At 350+ lbs. Nobody moved him at the Senior Bowl game or during SB week. He's cheap on the draft board too.
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

updated
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 01, 2017 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2017 cap has been set at 167 M$ -- kinda disappointing after commish indicated therecould be a 15 M$ raise.

That cuts the Chiefs' available cap (according to my calculation) by 1 M$ ...
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2017 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bad news: Fulton and LDT earned playing time escalators of 1.2 M$ each. Not sure about other players, need to have a closer look ...
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 02, 2017 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And here is LDT's contract:

Quote:
Adam Caplan @caplannfl

#Chiefs G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif's $20m guarantees include $10m SB, $14m fully guaranteed at signing
.

That means another 2 M$ in cap hit in 2017 ...
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Last edited by KC_Guy on Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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