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Garoppolo Asking Price?
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 31732
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's no point in trading Garoppolo for just a 2nd or a 2nd plus a low value pick.

2017 Garoppolo has more value than the average 2nd round pick. I just don't see the Pats moving him for that kind of return this year.
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Avicii


Joined: 18 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless the broncos blow the patriots away with their offer (something like a 1st and a second pick or a first in consecutive years), why would the pats trade garoppolo to them? Denver is a QB and some offensive line tweaking away to being a top 2 team in the AFC again.
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Starless


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
There's no point in trading Garoppolo for just a 2nd or a 2nd plus a low value pick.

2017 Garoppolo has more value than the average 2nd round pick. I just don't see the Pats moving him for that kind of return this year.
Perhaps a package of picks that they could turn into a 1st without much cajoling.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avicii wrote:
Unless the broncos blow the patriots away with their offer (something like a 1st and a second pick or a first in consecutive years), why would the pats trade garoppolo to them? Denver is a QB and some offensive line tweaking away to being a top 2 team in the AFC again.


For the same reason they traded Bledsoe to Buffalo - you make the deal with the team that offers the value you want and don't worry about another team's roster.
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MoJo63


Joined: 20 Apr 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avicii wrote:
Unless the broncos blow the patriots away with their offer (something like a 1st and a second pick or a first in consecutive years), why would the pats trade garoppolo to them? Denver is a QB and some offensive line tweaking away to being a top 2 team in the AFC again.


I agree you have to consider where you send a player and how that may effect your team. If Cleveland and Denver are both offering a 1st and a 4th where do you think the Pats will send him? Same for Jville, Chi etc..... Now if Denver did offer some stupid trade like two firsts I think BB would roll the dice. All things being equal I think he takes the team that is less of a threat.
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dhunt2402


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Avicii wrote:
Unless the broncos blow the patriots away with their offer (something like a 1st and a second pick or a first in consecutive years), why would the pats trade garoppolo to them? Denver is a QB and some offensive line tweaking away to being a top 2 team in the AFC again.


For the same reason they traded Bledsoe to Buffalo - you make the deal with the team that offers the value you want and don't worry about another team's roster.


Yeah but Belichick didn't think too highly of Bledsoe as a QB in 2002 -- not saying I know what he thinks about Garoppolo, but if he sees him as a 10+ year starter in this league I think he might be a bit more selective on where he ends up. You certainly won't see him in a Jets uniform via a trade.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dhunt2402 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Avicii wrote:
Unless the broncos blow the patriots away with their offer (something like a 1st and a second pick or a first in consecutive years), why would the pats trade garoppolo to them? Denver is a QB and some offensive line tweaking away to being a top 2 team in the AFC again.


For the same reason they traded Bledsoe to Buffalo - you make the deal with the team that offers the value you want and don't worry about another team's roster.


Yeah but Belichick didn't think too highly of Bledsoe as a QB in 2002 -- not saying I know what he thinks about Garoppolo, but if he sees him as a 10+ year starter in this league I think he might be a bit more selective on where he ends up. You certainly won't see him in a Jets uniform via a trade.


If the Jets offer a 1st and nobody else offers more than a 3rd, I'd bet that Belichick sends him packing to NY. If the offers are close, he can be more selective with where Garoppolo goes (if anywhere).

I don't think Belichick fears other teams getting better.
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MoJo63


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
dhunt2402 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Avicii wrote:
Unless the broncos blow the patriots away with their offer (something like a 1st and a second pick or a first in consecutive years), why would the pats trade garoppolo to them? Denver is a QB and some offensive line tweaking away to being a top 2 team in the AFC again.


For the same reason they traded Bledsoe to Buffalo - you make the deal with the team that offers the value you want and don't worry about another team's roster.


Yeah but Belichick didn't think too highly of Bledsoe as a QB in 2002 -- not saying I know what he thinks about Garoppolo, but if he sees him as a 10+ year starter in this league I think he might be a bit more selective on where he ends up. You certainly won't see him in a Jets uniform via a trade.


If the Jets offer a 1st and nobody else offers more than a 3rd, I'd bet that Belichick sends him packing to NY. If the offers are close, he can be more selective with where Garoppolo goes (if anywhere).

I don't think Belichick fears other teams getting better.


I don't think any of us here think BB fears other teams I do feel we think BB will evaluate the options that provide his team the best chance of winning and that includes picking up players, cutting players, and trade offers.

What this boils down to and I think we agree, if a team makes a significantly better offer or maybe even a reasonably better offer then he pulls the trigger. But all things being equal or close to it he will take the option the benefits his team more.

I do think most teams will offer close to the same deal. And with the way the media gets hold of info now a day other teams will know offers being made.

On a side note we may all be forgetting BB knows Jimmy Gs weaknesses too.
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Avicii


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My point wasn't that the Pats should avoid trading with the Broncos at all cost, but if trade value is relatively equal among suitors, then the Pats would be smart to consider not only the total return, but also how much Garoppolo would help the other team reach SB contender.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it will be 2x 2nd round picks.

Probably to SF when McDaniels goes there. That would be the same return as the 49ers got for Alex Smith who had more of a track record, although probably less upside.

That values Jimmy around the 19th pick in the draft, with how high SFs picks will be.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no way the Bears give up the 3rd pick and pay Jimmy big money.

Not after the Cutler trade hamstrung us for years.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
I think it will be 2x 2nd round picks.

Probably to SF when McDaniels goes there. That would be the same return as the 49ers got for Alex Smith who had more of a track record, although probably less upside.

That values Jimmy around the 19th pick in the draft, with how high SFs picks will be.


Two second round picks are much less value than a mid first round pick if you're making the trade in advance.

It's one thing to be sitting in the 1st round of a draft and trade down, if there's a nice crop of players to choose from and you feel like you're getting a similar talent. That makes sense. But trading blindly for future 2nd round picks is giving you a much worse return than a 1st rounder. I don't care what the outdated draft value chart says, it's just bad value. And projecting how high a 2nd round pick will be a year+ in advance is just silly. We see teams go bad to good or good to bad quite quickly.

Fans badly overrate 2nd round picks. Only about 35% of 2nd round picks are long term keepers for a team. Less than 20% of 2nd round picks are high end starters. Even the best drafting teams whiff on those picks completely or end up with short term players most of the time.

Garoppolo has a ton of value to the Pats in 2017. I wouldn't trade him for the equivalent of Ron Brace and Brandon Spikes or Tavon Wilson and Pat Chung which is, statistically, what you will get - one total dud and one useful but non-impact player. The 2nd round picks which truly pan out (Light, Gronkowski, Vollmer) are rare enough where it's not worth giving up a quality backup QB for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. If all the Pats are offered are two 2nd round picks, I say keep him and let him walk a FA or figure out a way to franchise and trade him or outright keep him if Brady declines/retires.

Now, if we're sitting here on draft day and there's a large crop of guys the Pats have graded as 1st round talents sitting there at pick #38 and some team offers you that pick, that's a different story.

Any other position other than QB, and the calculus is a bit different (e.g. Chandler Jones deal). But with QB, the drop from Brady to some random QB or even Brissett is enough to potentially sink a Super Bowl run. A drop from Brady to Garoppolo is still big but something the Pats could potentially endure. You don't give up that safety net for a 1 in 5 chance of landing a long term impact player. Winning a Super Bowl is really hard, and when you're a true top 3 contender, you don't intentionally shorten your window for such a low return. If the Pats were looking at a 9-7 team next year, again, it's a different story. If Brady were 30 instead of approaching 40, again, different story. But there's so much uncertainty with Brady heading into 2017 and 2018, that preemptively moving a possible heir, makes no sense unless the value coming back is significant.

Trading Garoppolo this year and then having Brady fall off a cliff in 2017 would potentially cripple the franchise and getting a pair of 2nd rounders - statistically likely to be a Vereen/Wheatley or Jackson/Butler combination isn't going to help get the team back a Super Bowl level.
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