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Garoppolo Asking Price?
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ConnPatFan


Joined: 02 Mar 2011
Posts: 504
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:52 am    Post subject: Re: Jimmy G trade Reply with quote

Lloydbraun wrote:


Remember, teams tend to pay dearly for QBs
This is true, but player for pick trades almost always value the player lower than expected.

A late first would get it done easy I think.
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Starless


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:59 pm    Post subject: Re: Jimmy G trade Reply with quote

ConnPatFan wrote:
Lloydbraun wrote:


Remember, teams tend to pay dearly for QBs
This is true, but player for pick trades almost always value the player lower than expected.
Not when the player is a potential franchise QB who won't turn 26 until the middle of next season.
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childofpudding


Joined: 29 Jul 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Bradford garnered a 1st and 4th, I think the Patriots could get a 1st for Garoppolo, but that would probably be the ceiling.

Patriots are in a tough spot because they're not sure when Brady's decline will begin. So do you deal Garoppolo now and hope that Brady lasts a few years more, or hold onto him next year as an insurance policy but lose trade leverage in the process? That they brought Brissett on the road even though he was injured indicates that they hope he'll be the next franchise QB, though I might be reading too much into that.
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MoJo63


Joined: 20 Apr 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

childofpudding wrote:
If Bradford garnered a 1st and 4th, I think the Patriots could get a 1st for Garoppolo, but that would probably be the ceiling.

Patriots are in a tough spot because they're not sure when Brady's decline will begin. So do you deal Garoppolo now and hope that Brady lasts a few years more, or hold onto him next year as an insurance policy but lose trade leverage in the process? That they brought Brissett on the road even though he was injured indicates that they hope he'll be the next franchise QB, though I might be reading too much into that.


BB may prefer a 2nd and a 3rd or 4th rather then a 1st. Point being I think he feels there is more value with two picks rather than 1 unless he would take that pick and couple it in a trade to another team.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

childofpudding wrote:
If Bradford garnered a 1st and 4th, I think the Patriots could get a 1st for Garoppolo, but that would probably be the ceiling.

Patriots are in a tough spot because they're not sure when Brady's decline will begin. So do you deal Garoppolo now and hope that Brady lasts a few years more, or hold onto him next year as an insurance policy but lose trade leverage in the process? That they brought Brissett on the road even though he was injured indicates that they hope he'll be the next franchise QB, though I might be reading too much into that.


Bradford was a unique situation and a stupid trade.

It is getting more and more rare that we see players traded for 1st round picks. Outside of the Seahawks twice and the Vikings getting hosed it doesn't seem that common.

That is part of the reason that I think Jimmy will be trade for a package of picks including a 2nd and more.
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bluemushrooms


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
childofpudding wrote:
If Bradford garnered a 1st and 4th, I think the Patriots could get a 1st for Garoppolo, but that would probably be the ceiling.

Patriots are in a tough spot because they're not sure when Brady's decline will begin. So do you deal Garoppolo now and hope that Brady lasts a few years more, or hold onto him next year as an insurance policy but lose trade leverage in the process? That they brought Brissett on the road even though he was injured indicates that they hope he'll be the next franchise QB, though I might be reading too much into that.


Bradford was a unique situation and a stupid trade.

It is getting more and more rare that we see players traded for 1st round picks. Outside of the Seahawks twice and the Vikings getting hosed it doesn't seem that common.

That is part of the reason that I think Jimmy will be trade for a package of picks including a 2nd and more.


Well its going to be more of a bidding process than what Jimmy is actually worth. Chances are, the Browns and Bears would be willing to invest a low 1st rounder for Garrop.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd be shocked if the Pats traded Garoppolo this offseason for anything less than a 1st or a quality player. Trading him now for a 2nd rounder or 2nd plus low picks makes no sense at all
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'd be shocked if the Pats traded Garoppolo this offseason for anything less than a 1st or a quality player. Trading him now for a 2nd rounder or 2nd plus low picks makes no sense at all


You can't trade him the offseason after.

He would come with a 22 million tag, which would kill his trade value.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'd be shocked if the Pats traded Garoppolo this offseason for anything less than a 1st or a quality player. Trading him now for a 2nd rounder or 2nd plus low picks makes no sense at all


You can't trade him the offseason after.

He would come with a 22 million tag, which would kill his trade value.


Anyone trading for him is doing so for the sole purpose of making him their franchise QB which necessitates a long term extension. The tag, as with Cassel, would be largely irrelevant.

Trading him for a 2nd and throw in picks would be idiotic. Maybe like 3 2nd rounders or a 2nd and a quality player. But there's value in keeping him through 2017.

Given some of the QB's teams are willing to waste 1st round picks on, I see no reason to think he couldn't land one. Maybe moving him with the Pats 1st for a very high 1st or something like that could work too. Moving him for a pick which, historically, gives you at best a 40% chance of finding a useful 4 year player makes no sense to me. He was a 2nd rounder himself and he certainly hadn't depreciated in value.
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MoJo63


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'd be shocked if the Pats traded Garoppolo this offseason for anything less than a 1st or a quality player. Trading him now for a 2nd rounder or 2nd plus low picks makes no sense at all


It makes perfect sense. BB is all about depth and damn sure feel and finds plenty of talent in rounds 2 and 3. On more than one occasion he has traded a high pick for multiple picks. He traded Jones and Collins and has a lot of free agent players next year plus some potential high dollar contracts. Building through the draft makes a lot of sense to me
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1ForTheThumb


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MoJo63 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'd be shocked if the Pats traded Garoppolo this offseason for anything less than a 1st or a quality player. Trading him now for a 2nd rounder or 2nd plus low picks makes no sense at all


It makes perfect sense. BB is all about depth and damn sure feel and finds plenty of talent in rounds 2 and 3. On more than one occasion he has traded a high pick for multiple picks. He traded Jones and Collins and has a lot of free agent players next year plus some potential high dollar contracts. Building through the draft makes a lot of sense to me


Except its much harder to find a quality back up QB than a plug in DE or LB.

I'm with McMurtry on this one. If you can't get a first this off-season, you hang on.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MoJo63 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'd be shocked if the Pats traded Garoppolo this offseason for anything less than a 1st or a quality player. Trading him now for a 2nd rounder or 2nd plus low picks makes no sense at all


It makes perfect sense. BB is all about depth and damn sure feel and finds plenty of talent in rounds 2 and 3. On more than one occasion he has traded a high pick for multiple picks. He traded Jones and Collins and has a lot of free agent players next year plus some potential high dollar contracts. Building through the draft makes a lot of sense to me


Yes, building through the draft is important. Which is why you should maximize the draft capital you receive.

It's poor value to trade a potential franchise pick for mid/low picks. It's not about how much Belichick likes 2nd round picks, it's about getting good value.

For all the "Belichick loves to trade down" stuff, he has also traded up a number of times (including multiple times in the 1st round). Trading down and having multiple picks doesn't always make sense. Part of the implicit value of getting a 1st for Garoppolo is that you have the option of trading it down if the board falls a certain way. It's also easier to package to go up, if you like a certain guy.
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MoJo63


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
MoJo63 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
I'd be shocked if the Pats traded Garoppolo this offseason for anything less than a 1st or a quality player. Trading him now for a 2nd rounder or 2nd plus low picks makes no sense at all


It makes perfect sense. BB is all about depth and damn sure feel and finds plenty of talent in rounds 2 and 3. On more than one occasion he has traded a high pick for multiple picks. He traded Jones and Collins and has a lot of free agent players next year plus some potential high dollar contracts. Building through the draft makes a lot of sense to me


Yes, building through the draft is important. Which is why you should maximize the draft capital you receive.

It's poor value to trade a potential franchise pick for mid/low picks. It's not about how much Belichick likes 2nd round picks, it's about getting good value.

For all the "Belichick loves to trade down" stuff, he has also traded up a number of times (including multiple times in the 1st round). Trading down and having multiple picks doesn't always make sense. Part of the implicit value of getting a 1st for Garoppolo is that you have the option of trading it down if the board falls a certain way. It's also easier to package to go up, if you like a certain guy.


My train of thought and I guess it differs from most, but...
Jabaal Sheard: Having lost Jones and Ninko long in the tooth we need to consider keeping at least on DE, not sure what the team will value him at.

Martellus Bennett This intrigues me Gronk is perpetually injured do they need to invest heavily in him and Gronk or do we look to draft a TE and lose him.

Sebastian Vollmer I can see the team letting him walk the O Line is playing well with Scar back but IMO his walking constitutes either drafting an OT or grabbing a FA

Barkevious Mingo I suspect he is gone and with the Collins lose I suspect they will look at a replacement. Not sure VanNoy or Roberts or McLellan are the answer

Chris Long : See sheard post.


Alan Branch: IMO our most effective DT and needs consideration sure we drafted two in the last two years neither of which seem better than Branch. I can see the getting better thouh

Dont'a Hightower: A must sign and probably a healthy contract


Brandon Bolden: A must sign ST quality and an back up at RB as needed.


LeGarrette Blount: I cannot see the team letting him walk, he has been our best back hopefully a reasonable contract can be agreed upon if not then I suspect they will have to draft or pick up a bruising back.

James Develin: A weird quality to me but can in a pinch line up as a TE little threat on the field and IMO minimal value

Logan Ryan: I think the Pats retain him offer him a deal he stays.

Duron Harmon: He can walk

Griff Whalen: Gone

Greg Scruggs: Gone

Other consideration a Butler deal and a decision on Jimmy G. This is why IMO between trades in the last year or so and FAs on this team multiple picks are more critical than a high pick if Jimmy gets traded. I am by no means GM material I just feel that BB with multiple picks in rounds 1 through 3 is a real special value.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Harmon goes, get ready for an early round safety. He's a very solid #3 and replacing him will be tough and/or costly. I'd prefer the Pats overpay a little to keep him than try to replace him through the draft.
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MoJo63


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
If Harmon goes, get ready for an early round safety. He's a very solid #3 and replacing him will be tough and/or costly. I'd prefer the Pats overpay a little to keep him than try to replace him through the draft.


Well personally I would like to keep Harmon but I can't help wonder if the team keeps Ryan will they also keep Harmon? Then I think about cap space with Hightower, Bennett, Butler etc. I don't have any real answers, I guess none of us do but it seems like we could be facing a lot of losses and a few big contracts.
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