Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

Brandon Williams Free Agency :(
Goto page 1, 2  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Baltimore Ravens
View previous topic :: View next topic  

Will Brandon Williams be a Raven in 2017?
Yes
83%
 83%  [ 5 ]
No
16%
 16%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 6

Author Message
wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2016 3:55 pm    Post subject: Brandon Williams Free Agency :( Reply with quote

First of all, the Ravens cap situation for 2017 isn't that bad. We have $4M of cap space rolling over from being frugal-ish this year. Doom and Shareece Wright look like easy cuts that will free up nice chunks of space. Pitta's base salary should be reduced. Mike Wallace's 2nd year is a team option, but he's definitely worth keeping. After the rookie pool and depth signings, we'll have some breathing room. Not a ton though. What you hear in all the media is that Brandon Williams is key building block, one of our best players, and that the Ravens have to make him the priority of the offseason. All of that is true. Seems simple right?

Here's why it's not. The league is set up so teams have no leverage re-signing elite NTs. The problem is that NT's fall under the broader DT franchise tag. I can't find the number for 2017, it was $13.6M in 2016 and I'm pretty sure it's going to jump up again next year. Let's just say it's somewhere between we really can't afford it and there's no way in hell we can afford it. The contracts that figure into that formula are going to guys that play a different role, where they rush enough to hit double digit sacks, like Suh, Cox, Dareus, McCoy... Without the threat of keeping the player from the long term deal, there is no inventive for them to resign for less for security sake.

How do you even value an elite NT, who also eats double teams and makes things easier for everyone else, and also sometimes provides direct pressure on the QB? Add on proven durability, and seemingly no risk in terms of character or work ethic? What contract do you offer? Damon Harrison is the closest NT contract to look at. He got 5 ys/$46.2M. Williams is a more dominant player. Ravens shouldn't blink before offering 5 yrs/$50M. But, on open open market, he will likely see $11, $12 per offers.

A team like the Raiders still has tons of cap space rolled over. Luckily, they need, to pay Carr and Mack soon, but they'll still have way more money than us. Swiping one of our interior guys worked out so well on the other side of the ball, and they have even more of a need for a guy like Williams than they did for KO. It's not like we can play the "stay here and compete for a title card", unless we really turn around this season.

Finally, we have to look at our own roster, and interior D-line is still where the young talent is. Jernigan is turning into a player, Michael Pierce was quite a find, if Carl Davis comes back strong, NT is his natural position, and there are other guys we haven't gotten on to the field yet. To be clear, there's no other Brandon Williams on this roster. But, you can see from a team building perspective that their are other places where we may need to allocate the cap space to more.

Ugh... does anyone else think this is his last year in Baltimore? I didn't know who this guy was before the draft, but as soon as we picked him and I hit up youtube, I was sold on this lovable freak becoming a star, one of my favorite draft picks ever. So, this is a sad resignation for me Sad
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
Posts: 11247
PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No. I don't think Williams will fall into the front office's category of replaceable front seven guy who's about to get a lot of money. Because he isn't replaceable. Pierce has looked good this year... with Williams on the field at the same time. Hard to say if he's the solo answer at nose tackle. Davis coming back sure helps too but I'm not sold that his natural position is nose tackle. Not at his height, that's more of a detriment than as asset at that position. Plus I liked what Carl showed at defensive end early last season until other guys got healthy and he fell out of the rotation.

His contract will be pretty hard to peg. A bit more than Damon Harrison would be my guess as well. Linemen who don't put up big numbers just don't get that huge of deals on the free agent market. But I think the Ravens will make the moves necessary to fit in a new deal for him. They're not going to be in on higher-priced free agents regardless so the easy moves that can be made look like a natural path to re-sign Brandon.

For what it's worth McFarland has the Ravens at $2.7 million under the cap as of October 25th. So the Baltimore will be carrying over less than that when it's all said and done. Sad This is the list of free agents he has for the 2017 tab:

RFAs

Huff, Marqueston
Hurst, James
Jensen, Ryan
Matthews, Chris
Orr, Zach
Rolle, Jumal
West, Terrance

ERFAs

Clay, Kaelin
Onwuasor, Patrick
Price, Sheldon
Wesley, De'Ondre

UFAs

Aiken, Kamar
Ducasse, Vlad
Elam, Matt
Guy, Lawrence
Hester, Devin
Juszczyk, Kyle
Levine, Anthony
Mallett, Ryan
Powers, Jerraud
Smith, Steve
Wagner, Ricky
Williams, Brandon


In bold are the players I think are priorities to keep around. West is iffy given the depth at running back, but I will keep him there for now. Surprised Orr is already a RFA. That snuck up on me. Juszczyk and Wagner are above those two but Williams still trumps them all. I'm not particularly worried at this point.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

coordinator0 wrote:
No. I don't think Williams will fall into the front office's category of replaceable front seven guy who's about to get a lot of money. Because he isn't replaceable.


I don't think that's a question.

The questions are what are we going to offer him and what is everyone else going to offer him. It's not as simple as deciding IF we want him. Like I said, making a $10M per year offer is an easy call. But, I see no way that's the best offer on the market. So what offer do we make and what do you think some other team is going to make?

There's no doubt at this point he is going to see the open market. Guys who are the complete packages, of absolute freak athletes in their prime with years of proven production and all the intangibles, are rare. There is no way Brandon Williams is not a very good player for his next team; that's very appealing for a GM's resume. This is very similar to KO last year, except KO at least had some injury history. KO got $11.7M per and no other guard at the time was even getting 9. KO wasn't replaceable, but it's still debatable whether we should have cleared out THAT much cap space, despite us clearly missing him.

What's the last, best, final offer we should make to him, before letting him sign with another team? That should have been what I asked in the OP.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To answer my own questions:

I tap out after offering 5 years, $55M at the end of negotiations.

I think some team offers him 5 years, $65M.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
dcarey20


Joined: 15 Feb 2006
Posts: 8021
PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think they're gonna do everything they can to keep him and I suspect that they'll be able to get it done somehow. He's one of those draft picks who is a building block that we prioritize and get a 2nd contract, rather than just a decent player who is expendable (I.e. he's in that Suggs/Ngata category as opposed to the Krugers and McPhees of the world)

At least that is my hope. Would love to lock him up obviously.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
Posts: 11247
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
To answer my own questions:

I tap out after offering 5 years, $55M at the end of negotiations.

I think some team offers him 5 years, $65M.


That's almost $20 million more than Harrison got. I don't think the market jumps quite that high for Williams. My guess is that $55 million is the end point and roughly what the Ravens end up giving him. Probably less though because Newsome seems to get pretty decent deals on the guys he re-signs. Very scientific, I know. Laughing
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Danand


Joined: 12 Nov 2015
Posts: 1004
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't it time we begin to give contracts to our young pro bowlers?
_________________
2017 draft: I LOVE LAMP!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
RavensDefense3


Joined: 21 Apr 2011
Posts: 2332
Location: Baltimore
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We definitely need to find a way to keep him.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 11767
Location: MD
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Danand wrote:
Isn't it time we begin to give contracts to our young pro bowlers?


not sure what the thrust of this post is. Not sure there is some scourge of us not locking up young high performers. McPhee and smith weren't pro bowlers. Who else are you thinking of?
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
Danand


Joined: 12 Nov 2015
Posts: 1004
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
Danand wrote:
Isn't it time we begin to give contracts to our young pro bowlers?


not sure what the thrust of this post is. Not sure there is some scourge of us not locking up young high performers. McPhee and smith weren't pro bowlers. Who else are you thinking of?


I didn't have anyone specific in mind. I just try to advocate against this apparently "brilliant" strategy where Ozzie let young talent go and pick up compensatory picks and we acquire veterans with a few years left in the gas tank.

McPhee could have been a player we should have kept, Torrey Smith another as he had great chemistry with Flacco. Osemele could have been another although his price tag maybe was too high. There a pros and cons to what we have been doing - all I do is question the strategy we have chosen so far.
_________________
2017 draft: I LOVE LAMP!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
Danand wrote:
Isn't it time we begin to give contracts to our young pro bowlers?


not sure what the thrust of this post is. Not sure there is some scourge of us not locking up young high performers. McPhee and smith weren't pro bowlers. Who else are you thinking of?


Technically, neither is Brandon Williams. But, that is semantics. Great player as was KO.

BTW, state a max contract offer or you have no right to criticize Ozzie and Co for letting him walk. Just saying he's important, is obvious and meaningless. If they him sign elsewhere for at or under your number, then you have a right to complain.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Danand wrote:
Torrey Smith another as he had great chemistry with Flacco.


He is nowhere near worth $8M per.

McPhee, I would have given that contract to.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jpeter15


Joined: 17 Dec 2007
Posts: 200
PostPosted: Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did anyone notice the commentators mentioned Brandon Williams getting a big pay day in the game today? I am becoming convinced they read this forum (and other teams) prior to the game to get insights into the team. Something similar happened with a thread about one of our guy's nickname and then the commentators used it in the broadcast.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Danand


Joined: 12 Nov 2015
Posts: 1004
PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jpeter15 wrote:
Did anyone notice the commentators mentioned Brandon Williams getting a big pay day in the game today? I am becoming convinced they read this forum (and other teams) prior to the game to get insights into the team. Something similar happened with a thread about one of our guy's nickname and then the commentators used it in the broadcast.


I believe it was Kruger, where we brainstormed and came up with Elm Street and suddenly commentators began to use it.

I wouldn't say our insights are that groundbreaking that commentators or researchers browse our forums, but it wouldn't surprise me either
_________________
2017 draft: I LOVE LAMP!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 11936
PostPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I heard that in the broadcast. It seemed a little weird to hear this week since Brandon Williams free agency isn't something that you expect to come up in a broadcast. Brandon Williams doesn't even make many top upcoming free agent articles from national media. Then, that comment about him about to get a boat load of money, all of a sudden. I wouldn't rule out a network researcher creeping on the forums to find hot topics with each team, posts on this site get pretty high google visibility, somehow.

Hopefully, no GMs listened and got any ideas. Maybe, we should/lock delete this before the national Thursday game. Or start some "Brandon Williams is a replaceable NT who will make GMs look bad if they pay him a lot" threads. "Brandon Williams is a system guy" thread - GO!. Laughing

He had a great game, BTW. Bursting through the middle to make Ben throw it away on the first pass attempt, deflecting the pass that Jernigan picked off, and being a key reason that Bell was shut down. When GMs watch tape of this game and focus on what he does, that's the real problem.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Baltimore Ravens All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page 1, 2  Next
Page 1 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group