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Sam Bradford Traded to Vikings
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

reading over the first 10 pages or so of this thread is pretty good. we need a semi load of crow for all the experts who assured us Bradford would be average, underwhelming, or in a hospital.

here's a good one:

Quote:
Sam Bradford is average and has been average his entire career when he plays. at this point, he's maxed out his potential.


as he sets an all time NFL record for completion percentage....

Wink
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heimdallr wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
vike daddy wrote:
Bradford took advantage of a scheme that called for him to throw the ball short most of the time by setting a new league record for completion percentage over the course of a season. The oft-injured Bradford also remained healthy all year despite playing behind a patchwork offensive line, which may help explain why Zimmer said on Tuesday that Bradford has earned the starting job as 2017 gets underway.

Zimmer: “I think Sam has played great, I think he’s earned the right to be the starting quarterback."

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/03/mike-zimmer-sam-bradford-earned-right-to-be-starter/


aDOT was the lowest in the NFL

That is more of an indication of OL play than QB play.

Can't throw deep when you have 1.5 seconds to throw


I could look it up, but I won't. So, let me ask why aDOT is more relevant than QB rating or completion pctg or TD/ INT ratio?

The measures that Spielman will use to decide on what to offer Bradford for an extension (reasonably assuming he must do so to preserve good will with him, rather than take the risk of assuming that TB will fully recover and be able to play at a high level...) will likely include aDOT, but it will also include the other stats I mentioned.

@twsllhs20: Why focus on aDOT, unless you want to argue to favor TB over SB? IF so, how can you justify doing so at this particular point in time?
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't get this vid about a May date deadline to extend Bradford's contract to play on my computer.... any hints?

http://sports.yahoo.com/video/key-date-may-could-determine-145227747.html

Update: got it to work on the Yahoo home page by clicking buttons.

Correction and addendum;

The deadline is May 3 to pick up the 5th year option on Bridgewater's contract, not extend Bradford's contract. mea culpa. Embarassed
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
Heimdallr wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
vike daddy wrote:
Bradford took advantage of a scheme that called for him to throw the ball short most of the time by setting a new league record for completion percentage over the course of a season. The oft-injured Bradford also remained healthy all year despite playing behind a patchwork offensive line, which may help explain why Zimmer said on Tuesday that Bradford has earned the starting job as 2017 gets underway.

Zimmer: “I think Sam has played great, I think he’s earned the right to be the starting quarterback."

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/03/mike-zimmer-sam-bradford-earned-right-to-be-starter/


aDOT was the lowest in the NFL

That is more of an indication of OL play than QB play.

Can't throw deep when you have 1.5 seconds to throw


I could look it up, but I won't. So, let me ask why aDOT is more relevant than QB rating or completion pctg or TD/ INT ratio?

The measures that Spielman will use to decide on what to offer Bradford for an extension (reasonably assuming he must do so to preserve good will with him, rather than take the risk of assuming that TB will fully recover and be able to play at a high level...) will likely include aDOT, but it will also include the other stats I mentioned.

@twsllhs20: Why focus on aDOT, unless you want to argue to favor TB over SB? IF so, how can you justify doing so at this particular point in time?


Oline:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2015

Quarterback:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2015

Quarterback Air Yards (not aDOT but similar to illustrate my point)

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2016/

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2015/

The offensive lines are virtually the same in sack given up from this year to last. Run blocking was far better. This having to do with a healthy AP and not the russian roulette of Olineman.

The Quarterbacks are very interchangeable. Similar stats. The QBR are vastly different ranks but I'm ruling them out as I don't fully understand how they are calculated.

The air yards are also similar.

For one to say Sam was far and away better than Teddy is pretty laughable.

The real question that should be asked is are the quarterbacks a product of the offense, or are they products of the offensive talent?

IMO it is a combo of both. There isn't a significant threat to take the top off of the defense or to be a consistent RZ threat. This is what Trad was drafted for but he is an unknown. Diggs a high WR type guy, but he isn't a true #1.

The line is too bad/has too many costly penalties. Even with injuries, they only gave up 7 additional sacks from last season. That being said we will continue to see quick screens/slants and captain checkdown.

OIne QB is going to cost 20-23 mill a year. The other with his injury 16-18. As of right now, IMO they're the exact same player. One has room to grow if he heals up well. The other is who he is.

I'd opt to go for the cheaper option with potential, but that's me.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teddy also has potential to never not ever get to where Bradford is now or even recover properly from his injury. Pushing Bradford aside could also result in a potentially weaker QB situation.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
Heimdallr wrote:
twslhs20 wrote:
vike daddy wrote:
Bradford took advantage of a scheme that called for him to throw the ball short most of the time by setting a new league record for completion percentage over the course of a season. The oft-injured Bradford also remained healthy all year despite playing behind a patchwork offensive line, which may help explain why Zimmer said on Tuesday that Bradford has earned the starting job as 2017 gets underway.

Zimmer: “I think Sam has played great, I think he’s earned the right to be the starting quarterback."

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/03/mike-zimmer-sam-bradford-earned-right-to-be-starter/


aDOT was the lowest in the NFL

That is more of an indication of OL play than QB play.

Can't throw deep when you have 1.5 seconds to throw


I could look it up, but I won't. So, let me ask why aDOT is more relevant than QB rating or completion pctg or TD/ INT ratio?

The measures that Spielman will use to decide on what to offer Bradford for an extension (reasonably assuming he must do so to preserve good will with him, rather than take the risk of assuming that TB will fully recover and be able to play at a high level...) will likely include aDOT, but it will also include the other stats I mentioned.

@twsllhs20: Why focus on aDOT, unless you want to argue to favor TB over SB? IF so, how can you justify doing so at this particular point in time?


Oline:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2015

Quarterback:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2015

Quarterback Air Yards (not aDOT but similar to illustrate my point)

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2016/

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2015/

The offensive lines are virtually the same in sack given up from this year to last. Run blocking was far better. This having to do with a healthy AP and not the russian roulette of Olineman.

The Quarterbacks are very interchangeable. Similar stats. The QBR are vastly different ranks but I'm ruling them out as I don't fully understand how they are calculated.

The air yards are also similar.

For one to say Sam was far and away better than Teddy is pretty laughable.

The real question that should be asked is are the quarterbacks a product of the offense, or are they products of the offensive talent?

IMO it is a combo of both. There isn't a significant threat to take the top off of the defense or to be a consistent RZ threat. This is what Trad was drafted for but he is an unknown. Diggs a high WR type guy, but he isn't a true #1.

The line is too bad/has too many costly penalties. Even with injuries, they only gave up 7 additional sacks from last season. That being said we will continue to see quick screens/slants and captain checkdown.

OIne QB is going to cost 20-23 mill a year. The other with his injury 16-18. As of right now, IMO they're the exact same player. One has room to grow if he heals up well. The other is who he is.

I'd opt to go for the cheaper option with potential, but that's me.


IMO, Bradford has clearly performed better recently than Bridgewater has over his career, as measured by career stats and his most recent season. It's especially impressive given the sieve OL in front of him all year.

I don't have time for a full review of all you posted.... numerous stats aren't as meaningful as summary/ composite stats that were devised by NFL statisticians to provide the best measure of the quality of a QBs performance. One such stat is QBR, which you ignored because you don't understand it (your words). So, there's an opportunity for edifying yourself on the stat the NFL choose to display in their QB / passing rankings stats.

Bradford's QB rating in 2016 was 99.3. He had a few other seasons with QBrs in the 80s and one of 90.9. Bridgewaters QB ratings were 85.2 and 88.7. The more pertinent QB ratings are the recent ones by Minn QBs, so we only have 85.2, 88.7 and 99.3 to use for a comparison of what the two QBs can do within the Minnesota offense.

One important thing to consider is the OL, which is likely to improve in 2017, but the extent of the improvement is unknown. Thus, we won't likely continue to see as many checkdowns as you projected above.

Finally, you stated Bridgewater has room to grow if he heals but the other is who he is. That is an opinion not supported by facts. Further, Bradford grew from a QB rating of 86.4 in 2015 to 99.3 in 2016, with a completion pct growth from 65 to 71.6%. His total attempts in both years were in the mid 500's, which are credible volumes of pass attempts to yield credible stats. So, he grew in his seventh year. If he doesn't grow in the future, a 99 QB rating and a completion pct in the high 60s is expected / likely, and is going to put him in the top 6 to 10 NFL QBs, and that's perfectly acceptable to produce an effective offense, assuming the OL is addressed.

Also note that my cursory review of the aDOT stats seems to indicate they are clustered around an avg of about 4 yds, with a narrow range from 3 to 5, which means they are not significantly different among the 32 NFL starting QBs. Again, I need to study the variance of those stats for the 32 QBs with the highest number of pass attempts to make such conclusions. I will do so later when time permits.

Thank you for the multiple stat sources, which will be helpful to understanding the OL problems. Applause
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
reading over the first 10 pages or so of this thread is pretty good. we need a semi load of crow for all the experts who assured us Bradford would be average, underwhelming, or in a hospital.

here's a good one:

Quote:
Sam Bradford is average and has been average his entire career when he plays. at this point, he's maxed out his potential.


as he sets an all time NFL record for completion percentage....

Wink


I don't have the stats, but perhaps you do. did he set that record while having an extremely high ypa? were most of those passes beyond 5 yards, or were they mostly just short passes?

from what I recall, it was a lot of short passing game that was forced upon us because of how bad our Oline/run game was.

when people see or hear the word "average", especially when it involves something they have sentimental value to (a possession, or in this case, their favorite teams starting QB), I get the sense that they assume that what is being said has a negative connotation attached to it, which isn't always true. I still believe Sam Bradford is an average QB overall. he's good enough to get by with given his strengths and weaknesses. I think he's ran out of development hours to work with. given that he's in the prime of his career, he probably should have better numbers overall. there are exceptions to this rule, and I don't know that Sam is that. he might be..

that being said, I would call Teddy an average QB who, based on his age, might have a higher ceiling than Sam if he's healthy. noticeably, some of Bridgewater's strengths (how he deals with pressure) and weaknesses (overall arm talent) seem to be the opposite of the former. It may come down to preference, but I know I'd rather have the QB that plays better under pressure. Sam statistically did good in that category, but fails the eye test. he won't step up in the pocket, will lock on to 1 receiver without bothering to look downfield and throw a 3 yard checkdown, take a sack etc. some of these problems could be attributed to Bridgewater, but in general, he seems to be willing to look downfield, step up in the pocket and give the drive a chance.

I know I may be in the minority of opinions, but I give Teddy the edge, even though both QBs are pretty average.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteelKing728 wrote:
I don't have the stats, but perhaps you do. did he set that record while having an extremely high ypa? were most of those passes beyond 5 yards, or were they mostly just short passes?

from what I recall, it was a lot of short passing game that was forced upon us because of how bad our Oline/run game was.

While not "exceptionally" high, anything over a 7 ypa is a solid number. And while Bradford may have been utilizing a lot of short passes, he's far, far from being the only quarterback to do so. Yet, he is the only quarterback to have completed 71.6% of his passes.
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
reading over the first 10 pages or so of this thread is pretty good. we need a semi load of crow for all the experts who assured us Bradford would be average, underwhelming, or in a hospital.

here's a good one:

Quote:
Sam Bradford is average and has been average his entire career when he plays. at this point, he's maxed out his potential.


as he sets an all time NFL record for completion percentage....

Wink


16th in the NFL in passing yards.

18th among NFL starters in yards/attempt.

That's average in my book.
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gopherwrestler


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

milanb wrote:


16th in the NFL in passing yards.

18th among NFL starters in yards/attempt.

That's average in my book.


Average in yards, Average in yards/attempt, Excellent in completion percentage.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gopherwrestler wrote:
milanb wrote:


16th in the NFL in passing yards.

18th among NFL starters in yards/attempt.

That's average in my book.


Average in yards, Average in yards/attempt, Excellent in completion percentage.

Excellent in passer rating, excellent in TD:INT ratio
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gopherwrestler


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SemperFeist wrote:
gopherwrestler wrote:
milanb wrote:


16th in the NFL in passing yards.

18th among NFL starters in yards/attempt.

That's average in my book.


Average in yards, Average in yards/attempt, Excellent in completion percentage.

Excellent in passer rating, excellent in TD:INT ratio


Poor in scrambling and his eye always bothers me when they show that close up picture of his face.



Seriously Sam, open that other one up all the way.
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SemperFeist wrote:
gopherwrestler wrote:
milanb wrote:


16th in the NFL in passing yards.

18th among NFL starters in yards/attempt.

That's average in my book.


Average in yards, Average in yards/attempt, Excellent in completion percentage.

Excellent in passer rating, excellent in TD:INT ratio


It means that he's done a great job of looking after the football and completing the routine short passes, and I agree that those are important aspects of QB play.

But in terms of actually moving the ball down the field and scoring points, Bradford has been something of a mixed bag. He's also done very little to dispel his reputation for not showing a lot of leadership on the field.


Neutral
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

milanb wrote:
He's also done very little to dispel his reputation for not showing a lot of leadership on the field.


Neutral

Like what?
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SemperFeist wrote:
milanb wrote:
He's also done very little to dispel his reputation for not showing a lot of leadership on the field.


Neutral

Like what?


I don't know...

When your team is going through a 2-8 stretch, you would like to be able to point to just one game where your QB showed signs of rallying the team and willing them to victory.

But it's more than that. I remember in the middle of season, when the Vikings were still 5-3 or something, Chris Schultz (who is a former Dallas Cowboys OL and the NFL analyst on TSN, the major Canadian sports channel) was showing Vikings highlights with lots of video clips of Bradford bailing out of the pocket instead of taking a hit to deliver the ball. Basically Schultz was saying: while the Vikings had huge OL problems, attitude and motivation are a huge part of OL play, and Bradford is not the sort of guy that inspires offensive linemen to give everything they have on every play. It's why the Rams and Eagles gave up on him.
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