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Ragnarok


Joined: 17 Oct 2016
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Location: Washington, DC
PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
Ragnarok wrote:
justo wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
justo wrote:
*Von Miller mostly rushes against right tackles with TE or backfield help

NFL teams aren't running as many five-man routes as fans suggest sometimes. Also matters which side has the 3-tech in your no TE looks. 1-tech side has an open B gap for the pass-rusher to counter into. 3-tech side doesn't.


So it's not 1 on 1 vs. 3 on 2? Wink
Right tackles get as much help as IOL at least. I know people like to think positional value doesn't matter, but LT>>>>OG/RT>>>>OC. There's a pecking order for a reason


I'd disagree with this strongly. I would say that C is just about as important as LT in this era. Having an elite C that can make the line calls and keep the pocket from being pushed into the QB is every bit as needed as a LT to watch the blind side. Especially with quick passing games. It's much easier for a QB to step up into the pocket than it is for one to avoid a rush coming straight up the middle.


his is simply not true. The OC, on passing plays, is used mostly to double team whichever OG is having difficulty defending the interior pass rush. It is because of the OC that you usually have 3 blockers handling any pass rush from 2 defenders, which is why teams pay far less for interior linemen than they do for OT's especially LT's.

Most LT's are asked to defend the QB from the pass rush on their own and the great ones can do that quite easily. The RT may require the TE to help or the RB, but generally the LT is n his own to defend the QB's blindside.

Every NFL team consider the LT position to be the 2nd most offensive position on a football team, because they want to keep their QB's healthy. Qb's can see a pass rush coming from the right side or up the middle and bale out of the pocket if that happens, but while concentrating on finding an open receiver, they simply cannot know what is happening on their blindside and that is why almost every NFL team has spent multiple choices on drafting LT's if they need one and in any draft where a decent LT prospect is available, you will find them drafted in the top 5. THis is why LT's make a heck of a lot more money than interior linemen or RT's for that matter.

There is zero proof that LT's have lost their importance on the offense. They are paid the most money, they are drafted by far, at the highest draft position, even going #1 overall on occasion. NE took Solder, a LT in round 1, but has no round 1 interior OLmen currently on their roster, yet continues to win and paid Solder the most money of all their OLMen, so it appears that you think you know more about how to build a winner than BB does. I don't think so.


The center can help a guard, but it depends on what the defense does in terms of stunts or blitzes. So having a C that can make sure the OL has the proper protection is of massive value.

Elite LTs can be left on an island. Elite RTs can be left on an island. Elite interior guys can be left to handle interior rush themselves.

It also takes more time to get around the edge than it does to go up the middle. And if you look at recent history, teams are handing out massive contracts to elite interior OL for just this reason. Alex Mack for example. And if you have ever heard a QB talk about pressure, they'd much rather have outside pressure than inside pressure.

And your last paragraph is a silly straw man argument that's not worth the effort of an in-depth response.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
his is simply not true. The OC, on passing plays, is used mostly to double team whichever OG is having difficulty defending the interior pass rush. It is because of the OC that you usually have 3 blockers handling any pass rush from 2 defenders, which is why teams pay far less for interior linemen than they do for OT's especially LT's.


But that's not their only choice. They can choose not to do that if they have a strong interior OL. They can slide protection to help the weakest link at OT.

This 3-on-2 logic is beyond flawed. It ignores scheming as a reality of football.

Quote:
There is zero proof that LT's have lost their importance on the offense. They are paid the most money, they are drafted by far, at the highest draft position, even going #1 overall on occasion. NE took Solder, a LT in round 1, but has no round 1 interior OLmen currently on their roster that BB drafted, yet continues to win and paid Solder the most money of all their OLMen, so it appears that you think you know more about how to build a winner than BB does. I don't think so.


The Patriots spent a first round pick on Logan Mankins.

NFL teams also draft and pay WRs like they're incredibly valuable. The NFL doing something doesn't make it right. This is the type of fallacious logic baseball teams used prior to sabermetrics catching on. You're appealing to authority. It's a weak argument.
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justo


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tackle doesn't matter, receiver doesn't matter is an interesting take from a Los Angeles Rams fan that's pro Jared Goff
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
Tackle doesn't matter, receiver doesn't matter is an interesting take from a Los Angeles Rams fan that's pro Jared Goff


Not my stance. My stance is that both positions are overvalued.
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Iamcanadian


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Iamcanadian wrote:
his is simply not true. The OC, on passing plays, is used mostly to double team whichever OG is having difficulty defending the interior pass rush. It is because of the OC that you usually have 3 blockers handling any pass rush from 2 defenders, which is why teams pay far less for interior linemen than they do for OT's especially LT's.


But that's not their only choice. They can choose not to do that if they have a strong interior OL. They can slide protection to help the weakest link at OT.

This 3-on-2 logic is beyond flawed. It ignores scheming as a reality of football.

Quote:
There is zero proof that LT's have lost their importance on the offense. They are paid the most money, they are drafted by far, at the highest draft position, even going #1 overall on occasion. NE took Solder, a LT in round 1, but has no round 1 interior OLmen currently on their roster that BB drafted, yet continues to win and paid Solder the most money of all their OLMen, so it appears that you think you know more about how to build a winner than BB does. I don't think so.


The Patriots spent a first round pick on Logan Mankins.

NFL teams also draft and pay WRs like they're incredibly valuable. The NFL doing something doesn't make it right. This is the type of fallacious logic baseball teams used prior to sabermetrics catching on. You're appealing to authority. It's a weak argument.



Lt's rarely receive help from any interior OLmen, the RT might get some help occasionally, but the LT is on an island all by himself. A TE will usually help a RT also and if the RB stays in to help, he will simply defend against the most dangerous pass rusher breaking through.

Yes, NE did draft an OG in round 1, but it was with the 32nd pic k which is where you are drafting basically 2nd round talent.

Yes, I suppose what the NFL actually does hardly makes it right even though all 32 teams follow the same patterns when it comes to deciding what are primary positions on a football team and what are secondary positions. Yep, it is definitely a fallacious argument to use what is actually happening in the NFL vs your opinion, to decide what is he fallacious argument and who is using real logic.

Show me in the draft where your argument holds any merit, show me in the pay structure of the NFL, where your argument holds merit, show me where teams cut loose their LT's if they have a solid one in favour of keeping an interior OLmen. After all, Cleveland cut loose Mack, an All Pro OC rather than pay him even when they had millions of spare $$$'s and could afford to keep him.

Look, I'm not saying, secondary players cannot help a team win games, all I am saying is that comparing primary positions to secondary positions, and trying to sell the argument that the secondary position is of equal or more importance that a primary position, is simply untrue and not close to being logical.

Your baseball analogy just does not carry much weight. Sabermetrics in judging talent is all about how to judge a prospects potential and has nothing to do with positional analysis. A great hitting player at any position in baseball automatically becomes a primary position player no matter what position he plays.

2010-2016 31 OT's drafted, some of whom became RT's, some only for a year, before becoming starting LT's. Some shifted to OG, mostly because they failed as OT's, but to be fair Zach Martin was a huge success at OG, since Dallas was settled at LT and RT.

12 interior OLmen were drafted in the same period, hardly close to being equal in numbers.

Of the 31 OT's drafted, 7 were drafted in the top 5, 5 more were drafted in the top 10 = 12 top 10 picks. During the same period, 1 interior OLmen was drafted in the top 10.

So please explain to me where the NFL has shown the slightest interest in drafting interior OLmen high in the draft, which is clearly a very strong indicator of how they value each position. There is zero tend to draft interior OLmen high in the draft, I repeat zero trend.

If you go top 15, 5 more OT's were drafted, 1 more interior OLmen. It just isn't happening and no amount of argument can make it true.

Now, if the NFL goes back to being a run the ball first league, then you might have a solid argument, but as long as it remains a pass first league the LT will remain as the 2nd most important primary position on a football team, simply because he plays the most important position on the team for protecting the most important position on a football team, namely the QB.

DE's make a heck of a lot more money and you can include OLBers who are paid to rush the passer, than interior DLmen, because if you were to add together all the sacks coming from the outside vs the sacks coming from the inside, it isn't even close.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
Lt's rarely receive help from any interior OLmen, the RT might get some help occasionally, but the LT is on an island all by himself. A TE will usually help a RT also and if the RB stays in to help, he will simply defend against the most dangerous pass rusher breaking through.


You're either ignoring my point or not getting it. What you're saying also isn't uniformly true. The Titans, for example, had one of the best OLs last year and gave both their OTs quite a bit of help.

You're generalizing things that you can't generalize.

Quote:
Yes, NE did draft an OG in round 1, but it was with the 32nd pic k which is where you are drafting basically 2nd round talent.


They drafted an OG in the first round. That totally undermines the argument you just made, no matter how you try to justify it.

Quote:
Yes, I suppose what the NFL actually does hardly makes it right even though all 32 teams follow the same patterns when it comes to deciding what are primary positions on a football team and what are secondary positions. Yep, it is definitely a fallacious argument to use what is actually happening in the NFL vs your opinion, to decide what is he fallacious argument and who is using real logic.


Except they don't. You're generalizing again.

Quote:
Show me in the draft where your argument holds any merit, show me in the pay structure of the NFL, where your argument holds merit, show me where teams cut loose their LT's if they have a solid one in favour of keeping an interior OLmen. After all, Cleveland cut loose Mack, an All Pro OC rather than pay him even when they had millions of spare $$$'s and could afford to keep him.


Cleveland didn't cut Alex Mack loose. Alex Mack opted out of his contract and signed somewhere else. Cleveland also let RT Mitchell Schwartz walk and explored trading Joe Thomas.

What teams have let their LTs go? We just saw it happen a number of times this off-season.(Okung, Whitworth, Albert, Beachum, etc.) Pittsburgh let Beachum walk last off-season. The Chiefs let Albert go to the Dolphins. The Seahawks let Okung walk. The Chargers cut King Dunlap. The Broncos got rid of Ryan Clady. The Ravens and Jaguars let Eugene Monroe go. The Bucs let Donald Penn walk. The Vikings let Matt Kalil go. The Saints let Jermon Bushrod go. The Raiders let Jared Veldheer go. How many examples do you need?

Quote:
Look, I'm not saying, secondary players cannot help a team win games, all I am saying is that comparing primary positions to secondary positions, and trying to sell the argument that the secondary position is of equal or more importance that a primary position, is simply untrue and not close to being logical.


That assumes that your determination of "secondary players" and "primary positions" is accurate. It's not. Which is exactly the point I've been making.

You've made a bunch of generalizations. Many of them haven't really been accurate. I'm not here to make generalizations. I'm here to get into the weeds on this issue because it's more nuanced than people want to believe.

Quote:
Your baseball analogy just does not carry much weight. Sabermetrics in judging talent is all about how to judge a prospects potential and has nothing to do with positional analysis. A great hitting player at any position in baseball automatically becomes a primary position player no matter what position he plays.


The analogy went totally over your head. The point of Sabermetrics was to exploit an inefficiency created by traditionalists who refused to adapt to the evolving game. There are inefficiencies to be exploited in the NFL for those who are willing to not just blindly follow the traditionalist rationale. Once you recognize the evolution of the game, you start to spot the inefficiencies that can be exploited.

Quote:
2010-2016 31 OT's drafted, some of whom became RT's, some only for a year, before becoming starting LT's. Some shifted to OG, mostly because they failed as OT's, but to be fair Zach Martin was a huge success at OG, since Dallas was settled at LT and RT.

12 interior OLmen were drafted in the same period, hardly close to being equal in numbers.

Of the 31 OT's drafted, 7 were drafted in the top 5, 5 more were drafted in the top 10 = 12 top 10 picks. During the same period, 1 interior OLmen was drafted in the top 10.

So please explain to me where the NFL has shown the slightest interest in drafting interior OLmen high in the draft, which is clearly a very strong indicator of how they value each position. There is zero tend to draft interior OLmen high in the draft, I repeat zero trend.

If you go top 15, 5 more OT's were drafted, 1 more interior OLmen. It just isn't happening and no amount of argument can make it true.


Hence, the sabermetrics analogy being applicable. There is an inefficiency. Smart people will exploit it. That's already starting to happen. NFL teams are starting to get wiser to it because of Dallas.

Quote:
Now, if the NFL goes back to being a run the ball first league, then you might have a solid argument, but as long as it remains a pass first league the LT will remain as the 2nd most important primary position on a football team, simply because he plays the most important position on the team for protecting the most important position on a football team, namely the QB.


As I already pointed out, run-first or pass-first is irrelevant to this issue.

Quote:
DE's make a heck of a lot more money and you can include OLBers who are paid to rush the passer, than interior DLmen, because if you were to add together all the sacks coming from the outside vs the sacks coming from the inside, it isn't even close.


If you actually look at the trends, that's changing. There are currently 26 pass rushers making $10+ million per year. 13 of them are interior DLs. Two others previously played on the interior (Calais Campbell and Cam Jordan).

Teams know the impact that guys like Watt, Donald, Suh, Wilkerson, McCoy, Cox, Atkins, etc. are having on the game and are paying them handsomely for it.
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CalhounLambeau


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Remind me to never get into an argument with jrry.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CalhounLambeau wrote:
Remind me to never get into an argument with jrry.


It's generally an unpleasant experience for both sides because I won't back down even when I'm over the argument. I have to have the last word.
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Ragnarok


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
Remind me to never get into an argument with jrry.


It's generally an unpleasant experience for both sides because I won't back down even when I'm over the argument. I have to have the last word.


Yeah, I don't care enough to have gone through all that over his points. They were generally just bad.
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Iamcanadian


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Iamcanadian wrote:
Lt's rarely receive help from any interior OLmen, the RT might get some help occasionally, but the LT is on an island all by himself. A TE will usually help a RT also and if the RB stays in to help, he will simply defend against the most dangerous pass rusher breaking through.


You're either ignoring my point or not getting it. What you're saying also isn't uniformly true. The Titans, for example, had one of the best OLs last year and gave both their OTs quite a bit of help.

I already said that RT's routinely receive blocking help from TE's and the RB can help them as well, but it is a a fact that LT's rarely get blocking help unless they are simply less than a decent LT and are there to fill the position through need alone.

You're generalizing things that you can't generalize.

Seems to me that you are the one generalizing, of course as I mentioned TE's and RB's can often be used to help out a RT who is struggling against the pass rush, but it is a well know fact that most of the time any decent LT is "on an island all by himself" and receives very little help in doing his job.

Quote:
Yes, NE did draft an OG in round 1, but it was with the 32nd pic k which is where you are drafting basically 2nd round talent.


They drafted an OG in the first round. That totally undermines the argument you just made, no matter how you try to justify it.

So, you equate drafting an OG with the 32nd pick as proving that the NFL sees OG's as equal to LT's. Pretty lame argument.


Quote:
Yes, I suppose what the NFL actually does hardly makes it right even though all 32 teams follow the same patterns when it comes to deciding what are primary positions on a football team and what are secondary positions. Yep, it is definitely a fallacious argument to use what is actually happening in the NFL vs your opinion, to decide what is he fallacious argument and who is using real logic.


Except they don't. You're generalizing again.


Ya, love how your ignoring the actual drafting done by NFL teams which clearly shows how important they view OT's vs interior OLmen, I also love how you use the word generalizing when you have zero facts to back up your argument. It amazes me how people who cannot prove their points through facts turn to generalizations to replace actual facts.

Quote:
Show me in the draft where your argument holds any merit, show me in the pay structure of the NFL, where your argument holds merit, show me where teams cut loose their LT's if they have a solid one in favour of keeping an interior OLmen. After all, Cleveland cut loose Mack, an All Pro OC rather than pay him even when they had millions of spare $$$'s and could afford to keep him.


Cleveland didn't cut Alex Mack loose. Alex Mack opted out of his contract and signed somewhere else. Cleveland also let RT Mitchell Schwartz walk and explored trading Joe Thomas.

Can anybody blame Mack for leaving the Cleveland organization, so he opted for FA but he is still the rare exception where an interior OLmen receives an OT's money, so again you are using a rare exception to prove your point by generalizing it as standard throughout the league. Again, who is generalizing?????


What teams have let their LTs go? We just saw it happen a number of times this off-season.(Okung, Whitworth, Albert, Beachum, etc.) Pittsburgh let Beachum walk last off-season. The Chiefs let Albert go to the Dolphins. The Seahawks let Okung walk. The Chargers cut King Dunlap. The Broncos got rid of Ryan Clady. The Ravens and Jaguars let Eugene Monroe go. The Bucs let Donald Penn walk. The Vikings let Matt Kalil go. The Saints let Jermon Bushrod go. The Raiders let Jared Veldheer go. How many examples do you need?

Never said a LT could not be released, just said that a solid LT is rarely released. Almost all the guys you mentioned had seen a deep decline in their ability to play LT or were not that solid to begin with. A LT who loses a step and can no longer do a solid job on a consistent basis, will be cut, because he cannot handle the responsibility to be "on an island by himself".

ng, secondary players cannot help a team win games, all I am saying is that comparing primary positions to secondary positions, and trying to sell the argument that the secondary position is of equal or more importance that a primary position, is simply untrue and not close to being logical.


That assumes that your determination of "secondary players" and "primary positions" is accurate. It's not. Which is exactly the point I've been making.

Your right, using the pay structure in the NFL would hardly decide which is a primary position vs a secondary position come draft day and using the actual top 10 pick is also not a clear indicator of primary positions vs secondary position either.??????????????The"point you have been making" seems entirely made up in your mind with no facts to back it up. Generalizing about my facts or trying to negate them does not replace the simple fact that you have zero facts to back up your argument. The pay structure is totally against your theory as is team's drafting over the last 6 years.

You've made a bunch of generalizations. Many of them haven't really been accurate. I'm not here to make generalizations. I'm here to get into the weeds on this issue because it's more nuanced than people want to believe.

Show me the meat Where are your facts????????? Surely if interior OLmen were considered to be equal in importance to LT or even RT's, they would be paid according and drafted at equal spots in the draft, but they aren't in either case, making your argument totally worthless.

Quote:
Your baseball analogy just does not carry much weight. Sabermetrics in judging talent is all about how to judge a prospects potential and has nothing to do with positional analysis. A great hitting player at any position in baseball automatically becomes a primary position player no matter what position he plays.


The analogy went totally over your head. The point of Sabermetrics was to exploit an inefficiency created by traditionalists who refused to adapt to the evolving game. There are inefficiencies to be exploited in the NFL for those who are willing to not just blindly follow the traditionalist rationale. Once you recognize the evolution of the game, you start to spot the inefficiencies that can be exploited.

So, because there have been changes over the years in other sports or even pro football, that alone makes your claim true. Hardly an argument worth discussing, totally lacking in logic and a total generalization.

Quote:
2010-2016 31 OT's drafted, some of whom became RT's, some only for a year, before becoming starting LT's. Some shifted to OG, mostly because they failed as OT's, but to be fair Zach Martin was a huge success at OG, since Dallas was settled at LT and RT.

12 interior OLmen were drafted in the same period, hardly close to being equal in numbers.

Of the 31 OT's drafted, 7 were drafted in the top 5, 5 more were drafted in the top 10 = 12 top 10 picks. During the same period, 1 interior OLmen was drafted in the top 10.

So please explain to me where the NFL has shown the slightest interest in drafting interior OLmen high in the draft, which is clearly a very strong indicator of how they value each position. There is zero tend to draft interior OLmen high in the draft, I repeat zero trend.

If you go top 15, 5 more OT's were drafted, 1 more interior OLmen. It just isn't happening and no amount of argument can make it true.


Hence, the sabermetrics analogy being applicable. There is an inefficiency. Smart people will exploit it. That's already starting to happen. NFL teams are starting to get wiser to it because of Dallas.

You say it is an inefficiency and that smart people are already exploiting it, but where are your facts. Again, the pay structure doesn't support you and certainly the draft clearly indicates that zero teams are drafting as you say they should, so again and again, where are your facts?????.

Quote:
Now, if the NFL goes back to being a run the ball first league, then you might have a solid argument, but as long as it remains a pass first league the LT will remain as the 2nd most important primary position on a football team, simply because he plays the most important position on the team for protecting the most important position on a football team, namely the QB.


As I already pointed out, run-first or pass-first is irrelevant to this issue.

Sorry, but it isn't. interior Olmen are very important in the run game, but are far less important in handling a pass rush. While protecting the blindside of a QB against pass rushers, obviously if a team was running the ball 75% of the time like in the old days, mostly to the right side, then a LT would have certainly lost quite a bit of his value unless they were equally great run blockers. In the old days interior OLmen were far more important to their teams.

Love how you totally ignore the facts that is taking place in the draft, for you, even last year doesn't count, all that counts for you is what is in your mind, when in fact there is zero facts to support it.

Quote:
DE's make a heck of a lot more money and you can include OLBers who are paid to rush the passer, than interior DLmen, because if you were to add together all the sacks coming from the outside vs the sacks coming from the inside, it isn't even close.


If you actually look at the trends, that's changing. There are currently 26 pass rushers making $10+ million per year. 13 of them are interior DLs. Two others previously played on the interior (Calais Campbell and Cam Jordan).

Who are actually the top paid players on defense, 'Pass Rushers' followed by DCB's with the odd great pass rushing LB's thrown in. Then come the Safeties, DT's, and the rest of the LBers. If a team finds a DT who can put up sacks, he is paid accordingly. Why wouldn't he be??? That in no way supports your argument that Interior OLmen are equal to LT or even RT's, there are still 3 interior OLmen ready to block any great DT by a double team or if the RB is also used then you have 4 blockers available to handle 2 DT's. I repeat by far and large LT's are on an island by themselves unless they really are inferior talents, the RT can get help from a TE or even the RB if he is struggling, but solid LT's are rarely assigned anybody to help them. They are almost exclusively blocking usually the best pass rushers in the league.

Again the NFL pay structure clearly demonstrates this. Interior OLmen are for the most part, of course there is the odd exception by a truly outstanding interior OLmen, among the lowest paid players on the team minus a few special teams players like kickers and snappers.

If they are doing what you say, then how can that be??? Oh I forgot, your argument isn't based on facts just an idea totally based on what you think ???


Teams know the impact that guys like Watt, Donald, Suh, Wilkerson, McCoy, Cox, Atkins, etc. are having on the game and are paying them handsomely for it.[/quote]

Your right again, but since hey have an opportunity to use 4 blockers against them, they don't see the need to pay more than a few exceptions, the kind of money that they pay for a LT who is I repeat "is on an island all by himself for the most part". Even the RT's make more than interior OLmen.


Right now, all I see you putting forward is a theory with very little to support it, no facts. It is just an idea in your mind and nothing more. Spotting trends is one thing, making them up is quite another.


Really sorry I had to bold my remarks, I screwed up logging in and would have had to type everything over again to get it right, so I chose bolding over all that typing.

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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just trying to help here, does everyone agree on the following:

1. LT's are paid more than G & C?
2. More T's are drafted early than interior linemen?

If we all agree there, then the concept of market inefficiency holds if you believe interior OL is nearly as, or just as important as T play. The market might overvalue T because it's generally seen as harder to find LT, given the demands on agility, length, footwork, and functional strength - you need all 4 (some combine agility with footwork, which is fair, but I incorporate the ability to bend and move quickly, which is more than footwork alone) to play LT well, barring a few notable exceptions. But it's hard to argue there isn't a market inefficiency when you look at how pretty average LT's are paid in FA, versus better interior OL. And where the top T prospects go, in relation to the best C and G prospects. That's a difficult point to argue with.

If you don't believe interior OL play is as important....well, have at it, debate-wise. Maybe ppl can just agree to disagree there.
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Iamcanadian


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Broncofan wrote:
Just trying to help here, does everyone agree on the following:

1. LT's are paid more than G & C?
2. More T's are drafted early than interior linemen?

If we all agree there, then the concept of market inefficiency holds if you believe interior OL is nearly as, or just as important as T play. The market might overvalue T because it's generally seen as harder to find LT, given the demands on agility, length, footwork, and functional strength - you need all 4 (some combine agility with footwork, which is fair, but I incorporate the ability to bend and move quickly, which is more than footwork alone) to play LT well, barring a few notable exceptions. But it's hard to argue there isn't a market inefficiency when you look at how pretty average LT's are paid in FA, versus better interior OL. And where the top T prospects go, in relation to the best C and G prospects. That's a difficult point to argue with.

If you don't believe interior OL play is as important....well, have at it, debate-wise. Maybe ppl can just agree to disagree there.


I agree that the argument is over, as obviously neither one of us is willing to budge.

I'll just add a final word. Do you really believe that all NFL GM's don't have a clue as to the value of positions and that the draft doesn't express that view in a clear and precise manner along with their pay structure? I have 32 NFL GM's who express in their pay structure and through the draft, how they value positions in the NFL, saying the opposite just does not seem rational to me.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Just trying to help here, does everyone agree on the following:

1. LT's are paid more than G & C?
2. More T's are drafted early than interior linemen?

If we all agree there, then the concept of market inefficiency holds if you believe interior OL is nearly as, or just as important as T play. The market might overvalue T because it's generally seen as harder to find LT, given the demands on agility, length, footwork, and functional strength - you need all 4 (some combine agility with footwork, which is fair, but I incorporate the ability to bend and move quickly, which is more than footwork alone) to play LT well, barring a few notable exceptions. But it's hard to argue there isn't a market inefficiency when you look at how pretty average LT's are paid in FA, versus better interior OL. And where the top T prospects go, in relation to the best C and G prospects. That's a difficult point to argue with.

If you don't believe interior OL play is as important....well, have at it, debate-wise. Maybe ppl can just agree to disagree there.


I agree that the argument is over, as obviously neither one of us is willing to budge.

I'll just add a final word. Do you really believe that all NFL GM's don't have a clue as to the value of positions and that the draft doesn't express that view in a clear and precise manner along with their pay structure? I have 32 NFL GM's who express in their pay structure and through the draft, how they value positions in the NFL, saying the opposite just does not seem rational to me.


Well, if all 32 GM's valued everything equally - we'd get a completely even distribution of success across all 32 teams. But we clearly don't, that's the issue. Some teams, like the Packers, nail the draft classes year in and year out, while others make a dog's mess. The same holds true with FA. The most effective teams exploit the market inefficiencies better than the weaker ones.

How does that relate to OL? Well, for one - we all recognize that C is very important - but we can't quantify or measure one of the most important key traits - game IQ and intelligence. You need agility and functional strength as well, but that 3-skill combo is not as easy to define. So you end up with Pro Bowl level C's who are drafted anywhere from mid-late Rd 1 to Day 3. If you can find them on Day 2-3 instead of Day 1 - huge gains in both personnel (spending earlier picks on other positions where teams don't let supreme talents fall far), and in cap flow (first 4 years are a mega-bargain instead of a good value with Rd 1 salaries and Year 5 option).

As to how that translates this year? Well, for one, I think whoever drafts Forrest Lamp is going to knock it out of the park when we look back 3 years from now - like drafting Zack Martin, or David Decastro. I'm not sure we can say that about the T's on the board at the same time. That's a direct result of the overvaluation T's have right now. Just my 2 cents.
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Iamcanadian


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Broncofan wrote:
Iamcanadian wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Just trying to help here, does everyone agree on the following:

1. LT's are paid more than G & C?
2. More T's are drafted early than interior linemen?

If we all agree there, then the concept of market inefficiency holds if you believe interior OL is nearly as, or just as important as T play. The market might overvalue T because it's generally seen as harder to find LT, given the demands on agility, length, footwork, and functional strength - you need all 4 (some combine agility with footwork, which is fair, but I incorporate the ability to bend and move quickly, which is more than footwork alone) to play LT well, barring a few notable exceptions. But it's hard to argue there isn't a market inefficiency when you look at how pretty average LT's are paid in FA, versus better interior OL. And where the top T prospects go, in relation to the best C and G prospects. That's a difficult point to argue with.

If you don't believe interior OL play is as important....well, have at it, debate-wise. Maybe ppl can just agree to disagree there.


Quote:

I agree that the argument is over, as obviously neither one of us is willing to budge.

Quote:

I'll just add a final word. Do you really believe that all NFL GM's don't have a clue as to the value of positions and that the draft doesn't express that view in a clear and precise manner along with their pay structure? I have 32 NFL GM's who express in their pay structure and through the draft, how they value positions in the NFL, saying the opposite just does not seem rational to me.


Well, if all 32 GM's valued everything equally - we'd get a completely even distribution of success across all 32 teams. But we clearly don't, that's the issue. Some teams, like the Packers, nail the draft classes year in and year out, while others make a dog's mess. The same holds true with FA. The most effective teams exploit the market inefficiencies better than the weaker ones.

Quote:
They may all value the same positions equally, but their ability to assess talent is what makes each team unique, hence the different levels of success. A lot of success has to do with the market a team plays in, the bigger the market and the richer the owner, the bigger the scouting department. Pittsburgh and Green Bay are currently the only small market cities that do a great job of overcoming it on draft day, but are very vulnerable during FA every year.


How does that relate to OL? Well, for one - we all recognize that C is very important - but we can't quantify or measure one of the most important key traits - game IQ and intelligence. You need agility and functional strength as well, but that 3-skill combo is not as easy to define. So you end up with Pro Bowl level C's who are drafted anywhere from mid-late Rd 1 to Day 3. If you can find them on Day 2-3 instead of Day 1 - huge gains in both personnel (spending earlier picks on other positions where teams don't let supreme talents fall far), and in cap flow (first 4 years are a mega-bargain instead of a good value with Rd 1 salaries and Year 5 option).
Quote:

Every position on a football team is important if you want to be a winner, but teams still recognize which positions carry the most importance and which ones are secondary in nature. OC is a secondary position, but you still need a good one if you want to be a winning team. Teams rarely draft secondary position players as high as primary ones, unless the talent pool is so low in primary position players when it is their pick, then they might draft a secondary position player in round 1.


As to how that translates this year? Well, for one, I think whoever drafts Forrest Lamp is going to knock it out of the park when we look back 3 years from now - like drafting Zack Martin, or David Decastro. I'm not sure we can say that about the T's on the board at the same time. That's a direct result of the overvaluation T's have right now. Just my 2 cents.


Quote:

Just what I was saying above, when the talent level at say LT is below standard, then it becomes a real possibility that a secondary position player might go ahead of them, keeping in mind, that the left OT is viewed as the main ingredient in protecting your QB's health, they still may get drafted ahead of a superior OLmen who has a higher ranking. After all, what good is the higher ranked prospect if you lost your QB for the season?? Ask yourself a question, if you were a GM at the draft table, and your team has a good QB but is weak at LT and have a chance to fill that position or draft a slightly higher rated prospect at OG, what would you do, knowing your QB's health is at risk with the LT you currently have?? I think most GM's would overdraft the LT and worry about OG's and OC's in later rounds.


Quote:

Of course if your team is solid at QB and LT, then drafting the OG who is higher ranked makes a lot of sense. OT's especially LT's get overdrafted by weak teams in dire need for those positions, so the stronger teams will benefit from this, but make no mistake, if a strong team needs a LT, they will look at every possibility for drafting one even if it sometimes involves drafting the lower ranked prospect provided the difference in ranking isn't too large.


You are always going to reach a point in round 1, where all the decent primary prospects have been plucked and so, drafting a secondary position player becomes a real possibility.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Iamcanadian wrote:
Broncofan wrote:
Just trying to help here, does everyone agree on the following:

1. LT's are paid more than G & C?
2. More T's are drafted early than interior linemen?

If we all agree there, then the concept of market inefficiency holds if you believe interior OL is nearly as, or just as important as T play. The market might overvalue T because it's generally seen as harder to find LT, given the demands on agility, length, footwork, and functional strength - you need all 4 (some combine agility with footwork, which is fair, but I incorporate the ability to bend and move quickly, which is more than footwork alone) to play LT well, barring a few notable exceptions. But it's hard to argue there isn't a market inefficiency when you look at how pretty average LT's are paid in FA, versus better interior OL. And where the top T prospects go, in relation to the best C and G prospects. That's a difficult point to argue with.

If you don't believe interior OL play is as important....well, have at it, debate-wise. Maybe ppl can just agree to disagree there.


Quote:

I agree that the argument is over, as obviously neither one of us is willing to budge.

Quote:

I'll just add a final word. Do you really believe that all NFL GM's don't have a clue as to the value of positions and that the draft doesn't express that view in a clear and precise manner along with their pay structure? I have 32 NFL GM's who express in their pay structure and through the draft, how they value positions in the NFL, saying the opposite just does not seem rational to me.


Well, if all 32 GM's valued everything equally - we'd get a completely even distribution of success across all 32 teams. But we clearly don't, that's the issue. Some teams, like the Packers, nail the draft classes year in and year out, while others make a dog's mess. The same holds true with FA. The most effective teams exploit the market inefficiencies better than the weaker ones.

Quote:
They may all value the same positions equally, but their ability to assess talent is what makes each team unique, hence the different levels of success. A lot of success has to do with the market a team plays in, the bigger the market and the richer the owner, the bigger the scouting department. Pittsburgh and Green Bay are currently the only small market cities that do a great job of overcoming it on draft day, but are very vulnerable during FA every year.


How does that relate to OL? Well, for one - we all recognize that C is very important - but we can't quantify or measure one of the most important key traits - game IQ and intelligence. You need agility and functional strength as well, but that 3-skill combo is not as easy to define. So you end up with Pro Bowl level C's who are drafted anywhere from mid-late Rd 1 to Day 3. If you can find them on Day 2-3 instead of Day 1 - huge gains in both personnel (spending earlier picks on other positions where teams don't let supreme talents fall far), and in cap flow (first 4 years are a mega-bargain instead of a good value with Rd 1 salaries and Year 5 option).
Quote:

Every position on a football team is important if you want to be a winner, but teams still recognize which positions carry the most importance and which ones are secondary in nature. OC is a secondary position, but you still need a good one if you want to be a winning team. Teams rarely draft secondary position players as high as primary ones, unless the talent pool is so low in primary position players when it is their pick, then they might draft a secondary position player in round 1.


As to how that translates this year? Well, for one, I think whoever drafts Forrest Lamp is going to knock it out of the park when we look back 3 years from now - like drafting Zack Martin, or David Decastro. I'm not sure we can say that about the T's on the board at the same time. That's a direct result of the overvaluation T's have right now. Just my 2 cents.


Quote:

Just what I was saying above, when the talent level at say LT is below standard, then it becomes a real possibility that a secondary position player might go ahead of them, keeping in mind, that the left OT is viewed as the main ingredient in protecting your QB's health, they still may get drafted ahead of a superior OLmen who has a higher ranking. After all, what good is the higher ranked prospect if you lost your QB for the season?? Ask yourself a question, if you were a GM at the draft table, and your team has a good QB but is weak at LT and have a chance to fill that position or draft a slightly higher rated prospect at OG, what would you do, knowing your QB's health is at risk with the LT you currently have?? I think most GM's would overdraft the LT and worry about OG's and OC's in later rounds.


Quote:

Of course if your team is solid at QB and LT, then drafting the OG who is higher ranked makes a lot of sense. OT's especially LT's get overdrafted by weak teams in dire need for those positions, so the stronger teams will benefit from this, but make no mistake, if a strong team needs a LT, they will look at every possibility for drafting one even if it sometimes involves drafting the lower ranked prospect provided the difference in ranking isn't too large.


You are always going to reach a point in round 1, where all the decent primary prospects have been plucked and so, drafting a secondary position player becomes a real possibility.


All good - FWIW though this year I think Lamp will be the #1 OL long-term, regardless of position. I think he's that good that he negates the need equation. And I saw that coming from a T needy team. Personally I'd rather have Lamp.

The thing about need is that it cycles and rather quickly, except for QB (because that position has so much longevity once you find your guy). What seems like priority #1 now can be dwarfed in a year, and what seems like #4 can be #1 next year. That's why I dislike need picks when the talent level is so different.
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This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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